Penang Property Study Trip NEUTRAL...2016/01/29 · Study Trip 29 January 2016...

Study Trip

29 January 2016

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Penang Property Study Trip NEUTRAL Quiet Up North ↔ By Sarah Lim l [email protected]

We visited Penang’s property scene recently and came back feeling unexcited, as Penang is also experiencing a slow-down like the ot her major property corridors of Malaysia. Our visit focused on new projects on the Island and the Batu Kawan area to gauge the pace of development and demand momentum. We visited the following projects; (i) SUNWAY Cassia @ Batu Maung, (ii) Eco Meadows @ Simpang Ampat, (iii) IJM Permatang Sanctuary @ Permatang Tinggi, B ukit Mertajam, (iv) Eco Terraces @ Paya Terubong Penang Island, and (iv) EWEIN City of Dreams @ Gurney Drive. Penang is also facing similar challenges as in Klan g Valley such as tighter loans requirements or the right margin of financing, affo rdability issue and weak rental yields. We are seeing take-up rates of about 50%-70 % (including Bumi units or 30% of the development) vs. the good-old days where 70% -80% take-ups were achieved within a year of launch. Most developers are cautio us about launching large project phases or even maiden ones, save for ECOWLD. Posit ively, the current profile of buyers of these projects is largely Penangites and for owner-occupancy purposes. Our ground feel indicates that Penangites are upbea t on the new infrastructure plans (e.g. undersea tunnel, PORR, LRT) even though it me ans more land reclamations to fund the projects. However, while the optimism on P enang’s future is there, we note that there is a general cautiousness in the near-to -medium-term. Just like Klang Valley, Penang residential prices have plateaued as 3Q15 HPI growth for Penang has eased to 3.5% vs. its 10-year’s average of 7.6%. Ov erall, we continue to maintain NEUTRAL on the sector and remain neutral on Penang as we see no near-term catalysts in the area. Those wanting to take bets o n Penang’s infrastructure spill-over effects will require a longer term view and ho lding power. We maintain that the overall fundamental property structure of Malaysia (e.g. banking liquidity to the sector, affordability issues) needs to be addressed first before the sector can see the next bull-cycle.

Penang property scene. We visited Penang’s property scene recently and came back feeling unexcited as Penang is experiencing similar slow-down as the other major property corridors of Malaysia. Out visit focused on new projects on the Island and the Batu Kawan area to determine the pace of development and demand momentum. We visited the following projects; (i) SUNWAY (MP; TP: RM3.27) Cassia @ Batu Maung, (ii) Eco Meadows @ Simpang Ampat (ECOWLD; OP; TP: RM1.90), (iii) IJM (MP; TP: RM3.50) Permatang Sanctuary @ Permatang Tinggi, Bukit Mertajam, (iv) Eco Terraces @ Paya Terubong Penang Island, (iv) EWEIN (NOT RATED) City of Dreams @ Gurney Drive. We also visited the sites of yet to launch projects by; (i) PARAMOUNT’s (NOT RATED) KDU Penang @ Bandar Cassia, Batu Kawan, and (ii) HUAYANG’s (OP; TP: RM2.20) affordable service apartment at Bukit Minyak, Bukit Mertajam.

Facing the same challenges... As felt in the Klang Valley, Penang also faces similar challenges such securing loans for the buyers or the right margin of financing, affordability issue and weak rental yields (1%-2% on average for newly delivered projects). Based on the projects we visited, which has been launched within a 12-month period, we are seeing take-up rates of about 50%-70% (including 30% Bumi units) vs. the good-old days where 70%-80% take-ups were achieved within a year of launch. We note that developers have to offer a lot more goodies to entice buyers to lock-in sales, which is similarly experienced in the Klang Valley. Most developers are cautious about launching large new project phases or even maiden ones, save for ECOWLD which appears to be on the roll with Eco Marina @ Batu Kawan being targeted for launch in 4Q16.

…but largely driven by Penangites and owner occupier s. Positively, the current profile of buyers of these projects is largely Penangites who are buying for owner occupancy purposes. Landed housing is still preferred by most Penangites, according to most developers, and this could be the reason that landed homes are regarded as the preference albeit the weaker yields vs. high-rise developments. However, based on our recent project visit observations, we note that take-up rates for landed and high-rise residentials were mixed (refer to project updates for details).

Our ground feel indicates that Penangites are upbeat on the new infrastructure plan s (e.g. undersea tunnel, PORR, LRT) even though it means more land reclamations to fund the projects. However, while the optimism on Penang’s future is there, we

Property Developers Study Trip 29 January 2016

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note that there is a general cautiousness in the near-to-medium-term due to general economic slowdown while on-the-ground channel checks indicate that many cash-rich Penangites have channelled their funds towards overseas property investments in the last 2-3 years. Additionally, Penangites are known to have ‘holding power’ enabling them to bear long periods of low rental yields and slow capital appreciation; this was also concurred with the developers we met on the ground i.e. Penang properties will require a longer term view of 5-10 years for compelling returns. This could be another reason for the preference for landed homes which capital appreciation tends to be stronger compared to high-rises.

By far, the most impressive development we have seen was EWEIN’s City of Dreams, followed by Eco Meadows and Eco Terraces. EWEIN’s City of Dreams certainly sells a compelling value proposition given its price and high-end positioning in a sought after location (refer overleaf). We gather that EWEIN is trying to build its brand amongst Penangites by offering value and the promise of quality. Of course, ECOWLD’s projects continue to echo their class-above trade-marks as seen in Johor and Klang Valley as the group is selling lifestyle in strategic locations, impressing buyers with their strong sales and marketing pitches and service. More importantly, ECOWLD is addressing security concerns, such as those on the mainland of Penang with Eco Meadows being a gated-and-guarded community. As for projects in or near the Batu Kawan area, we were taken aback by the large tracks of land which hav not been developed which could up supply competition for mass developers in the Mainland. Positively, most developers we visited, except for ECOWLD, are less aggressive with their launches current.

Overview of Project Locations

Source: Google Earth

Penang property prices have plateaued. Penang property prices are typically higher than other states (save for Kuala Lumpur) as its 10-year’s annual average growth is at 7.6% vs. Malaysia’s 6.7%. However, just like Klang Valley, prices have plateaued as 3Q15 HPI growth for Penang has eased to 3.5% YoY or down from its 10-year’s average. To recap, most of the major property corridors are seeing similar trends although Penang and Johor HPI growth rate has slowed down significantly more than other states vs. their 10-year’s average. In terms of new residential launches, Penang is still showing an overall uptrend, especially in the high-rise segment while quarterly transactions have remain on a downtrend since 2012. As a result, Penang’s overall supply residential absorption rates have deteriorated and is worse off than the Malaysian overall average.


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House Price Index – Key States vs. their respective 1 0-yr Averages

Source: CEIC, BNM, JPPH

Absorption Rate – Malaysia vs Penang

Source: CEIC, JPPH

Penang Residential Launches

Source: CEIC, JPPH

(Refer to Appendix for more charts)

Overall, we continue to maintain NEUTRAL on the sector and remain neutral on Penang as we see no near-term catalysts in the area. Those wanting to take bets on Penang’s infrastructure spill-over effects will require a longer term view and holding power. We maintain that the overall fundamental property structure of Malaysia (e.g. banking liquidity to the sector, affordability issues) needs to be addressed first before the sector can see the next bull-cycle.

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PROJECT UPDATES

(For project pictures, please refer to Appendix)

SUNWAY CASSIA @ Batu Maung (GDV: RM236m) spans 23 ac off the main road of Jalan Batu Maung and is a landed residential development (individual title). The project sells the well-liked proposition of sizeable landed residentials for multiple family generations with good accessibility. The project enjoys strong accessibility through Jalan Permatang Damar Laut and the Tun Dr Lim Chong Eu Expressway and is 4km away from the Second Penang Bridge, 5km from the Penang International Airport and 12km from the Penang Bridge. The first few phases are nearly fully sold (Phase 1-100% take-up and Phase 2-92% take-up) since its launch a few years ago.

Now they have launched Phase 3 which consists of 48 units of 2-storey semi-detached (3,200-3,700sf) costing RM1.6m/unit (gross) onwards; take-up is now at 25% and the developer expect sales to be relatively soft this year. Buyers are mainly Penangites and owner-occupiers. Landed residentials in the island remains a preferred choice for Penangites home owners. When asked if the group has any other major launch plans for Penang in 2016, it appears there is nothing major save for the shop offices in Bukit Mertajam (GDV c.RM20m).

Sunway Bandar Cassia Location Map

Source: Company, Google Maps Eco Meadows @ Simpang Ampat (GDV: RM918m) is a mixed development which spans over 76.5ac. It is a strata development, allowing for a gated and guarded community concept. It is just minutes away from the Batu Kawan Exit which leads to the Penang 2nd Bridge and is also extremely close to the Bukit Tambun Exit which leads to the North-South Highway. It naturally aims at young family home buyers or those wanting their first landed homes and tight security while enjoy strong connectivity to the Island. We gather that security concerns in the mainland are more than those on the island.

ECOWLD Eco Meadows Location Map

Source: Company


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Visiting the site, we can immediately see the ECOWLD signature entrances and roundabouts, as well as it Show Village. To date, the group has launched Eco Meadows Phase 1 which comprises of 375 units of 2-storey terraces (4 types, 2000-2500sf, 20’x70’ and 22’x70’, Bumi units included) priced from RM708k/unit (gross) onwards; excluding Bumi units, the group has achieved c. 70% take-up rate since launch in Sep-2015 or c. 62% for Phase 1. We gather that units are now being sold at RM758k/unit onwards (gross). Buyers are mainly Penangites, of which 60% were from the Mainland while the remaining are from the Island, and are mainly in their 30s; it appears the buyers are mainly those with no more than one property since they were able to secure 85%-90% margin of finance for this project.

Eco Meadows Phase 2 is targeted to be launched in mid-2016 and will be an integrated development comprising of: (i) 490 units of service apartments with a tentative price range of RM300-400k/unit or an ASP of RM400psf, (ii) 33 units commercial units priced at RM1.5m/unit onwards or an ASP of RM600psf; indicative GDV for Phase 2 has not been provided but we estimate a GDV of RM220-230m for Phase 2.

Eco Terraces @ Paya Terubong (GDV: RM430m) is a high-end high-rise residential development spanning over 12.8ac (333 units of 1095-2008sf). It is located in the heart of Penang Island in a hilly area and about 12km away from George Town City Center. The unique aspect about the project are the rolling hills while a small waterfall and the vast amount of greeneries provided as the development only uses 30% of the land. Already up is the sales gallery with show units which will eventually be the project’s ‘lifestyle’ clubhouse or ‘The Commune’ (13k sf). The group is selling a more laid-back lifestyle with a cooling ambience as the island gets very humid and the project tends to target the older generations.

We gather ASP is around RM900psf, or RM1,000psf for furnished units, (gross), implying that each unit may likely touch close to RM1.0m/unit or exceed it. Thus, it is not surprising that take-up is slow at 50% since its launch in mid-2015 and the group intends on marketing the project outside Penang and across Malaysia going forward. Buyers profile is slightly different than Eco Meadows; while buyers are still mainly Penangites, it appears most buyers are in their 40s-50s and is looking for a second home to reside (not investment).

ECOWLD Eco Terraces Location Map

Source: Company

Eco Marina @ Bandar Cassia, Batu Kawan spans 470 ac (leasehold) comprising of 300 ac mixed development, 150 ac golf course with a golf club and 20 ac for state purposes. For the 300 ac development, ECOWLD has indicated a GDV of RM10b and is said to be ECOWLD’s most valuable piece of land in Penang thanks to its prime sea-front and city-fronting location, located on a granite hill and is accessible via the Second Bridge. While details for Phase 1 launch, which is targeted for 4Q16, is still unavailable we gather that the first phase will see landed high-end homes price at around RM1.0m/unit.


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ECOWLD Eco Marina Location Map

Source: Company

IJM Permatang Santuary @ Permatang Tinggi , Bukit Mertajam is a gated residential development that spans over 131 ac (GDV: RM290m) in an established neighbourhood and is about a 15-min drive from Juru Auto-City and the Penang 2nd Bridge while being only minutes away from AEON Mall and Tesco Hypermarket. The project features large landed units like 2-storey link semi-detached, 2-storey semi-detached and link bungalows.

Sanctuary Garden or Phase 1 has been fully sold (launch in 2011, starting from RM400k/onwards) while Sanctuary Villa or Phase 2 (launch in 2013, starting from RM750k/onwards) has achieved 70% take-up rate i.e. Bumi units remaining only. Phase 3 or Sanctuary Residences features 216 units of semi-detached and 2 units of 2-storey bungalows starting from RM710k/onwards; since its launch in 2H15, take-up rates have been slow at less than 50% (including Bumi units). We gather buyers are mainly Penangites who are upgrading their homes.

IJM Sanctuary Villa Location Map

Source: Company, Google Maps


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EWEIN City of Dreams @ Gurney Drive . EWEIN is embarking on a one-stop wellness destination named “Wellness City of Dreams” which will eventually span over a reclaimed land of 110ac and carries a GDV of RM25b over a 10-year period given to Consortium Zenith BUCG by the Penang Government to build the RM6.3b undersea tunnel and three road bypasses in Penang. The first 50 ac (3 parcels) in Bandar Tanjong Pinang is expected to be fully developed before Dec-2020 and the group has just been granted a right to acquire these landbanks for a total of RM2.83b.

Phase 1 (4.4 ac) consists of two 38-storey high-end residential towers (572 units), named Elaine and Chloe, whose units are all fronting Gurney Drive/sea views of which piling has already started. Most units built-ups range between 1,097-1,335sf and the duplex units are at 2,350sf while all units enjoy their own private lift lobby. We gather that ASP is around RM1,350psf (net) for a high-end fully furnished with Interior Design; this is quite an attractive pricing for a high-end development in the area when other comparable are being priced at RM1,500-1,700psf. Another selling point is that the project offers more than 50 facilities but only charges a maintenance fee of 30.0 sen psf monthly (1st year free) while equivalent condominiums charging similar maintenance fees only have the standard facilities or are much older. Their 7-D scale model, a first of its kind in Malaysia, was truly an experience we will not forget. It certainly sets themselves apart from other developers while their marketing pitch was truly convincing for the price advertised and very unique product offering which has certainly caught many buyers attention albeit being a ‘newbie’ developer. However, the project is not spared from the current tighter lending environment; since launch in Aug-2015, we gather booking and SPA sales are at 100% although SPA signed sales are only at 50% due to issues of loan applications. Buyers are generally Penangites who are looking for prominent address in Penang while 10% of buyers are overseas ones (largely Singapore, China, Hong Kong and Indonesia) while 5% are from Klang Valley. EWEIN (NOT RATED) is currently not under our coverage.

EWEIN City of Dreams Location Map

Source: Company


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PARAMOUNT’s University Metropolis is located in Bandar Cassia, Batu Kawan and will be the first of its kind in Penang. The project has a total GDV of RM1.3b which will be developed over 10 years. The university occupies 10 ac of the land and will be up and running in 5 years’ time from the land acquisition date, while the remaining 20 ac is for an integrated development. The group acquired the land for RM65.5m (RM50psf) back in Mar-2014.

Paramount Metropolis University Location Map

Source: Google Earth

HUAYANG’s development at Bukit Minyak has a GDV of RM243m (720 units of service apartments, 36 units of commercial shop lot) is likely slated for launch in FY17-18. They acquired the 3 ac (RM9m @ RM66psf) back in Jan-2015.

Hua Yang Bukit Minyak Location Map

Source: Company, Google Maps


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APPENDIX

House Price Index (Malaysia vs Penang)


House Price Index – Key States vs. their respective 1 0-yr Averages


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3Q15 YoY Changes in HPI 10-yr Average


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Absorption Rate – Penang: Cumulative Residential New SS (IS+PS)

Source: CEIC, JPPH

Absorption Rate – Penang: Cumulative Residential Tot al SS (ES+IS+PS)

Source: CEIC, JPPH

Penang Residential Transacted Values (Quarterly Trend s)

Source: CEIC, JPPH

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Sunway Cassia

Source: Kenanga Research


Eco Meadows



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Permatang Sanctuary – Sanctuary Residences



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EWEIN City of Dreams




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Eco Terraces





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Peer Comparison NAME Price

(28/1/16) Mkt Cap

PER (x) Est. NDiv. Yld.

Historical ROE

P/BV Net Profit (RMm) FY15/16 NP

Growth

FY16/17 NP

Growth

Target Price

Rating

(RM) (RMm) FY14/15 FY15/16 FY16/17 (%) (%) (x) FY14/15 FY15/16 FY16/17 (%) (%) (RM)

DEVELOPERS UNDER COVERAGE S P SETIA BHD* 2.88 7,570 20.2 9.6 11.6 5.2% 7.1% 1.2 361.0 763.9 631.8 111.6% -17.3% 3.50 MARKET

PERFORM IOI PROPERTIES GROUP BHD* 2.10 7,910 10.4 16.8 16.5 2.9% 3.9% 0.6 528.6 552.4 562.8 4.5% 1.9% 2.09 UNDERPERFORM UEM SUNRISE BHD* 0.94 4,265 8.9 16.9 14.0 2.7% 7.8% 0.6 479.9 251.7 304.1 -47.6% 20.8% 1.20 MARKET

PERFORM SUNWAY BHD 2.95 5,252 8.6 8.9 10.3 3.3% 13.2% 0.8 592.2 570.2 492.6 -3.7% -13.6% 3.27 MARKET

PERFORM MAH SING GROUP BHD^ 1.28 3,084 9.0 8.2 7.9 5.0% 16.1% 1.0 339.2 372.4 388.6 9.8% 4.3% 1.47 MARKET

PERFORM ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP BHD

1.30 3,074 69.9 24.3 11.9 0.0% 2.5% 0.9 44.0 126.6 257.8 188.0% 103.7% 1.90 OUTPERFORM

UOA DEVELOPMENT BHD* 2.05 3,115 11.2 9.2 8.6 6.8% 12.2% 1.0 279.1 338.1 363.1 21.2% 7.4% 2.22 OUTPERFORM MALAYSIAN RESOURCES CORP BHD 1.11 1,983 44.1 95.5 41.2 0.0% 2.6% 1.1 41.6 19.2 44.5 -53.8% 131.9% 1.39 MARKET

PERFORM KSL HOLDINGS BHD 1.25 1,250 3.9 4.4 4.3 9.1% 15.3% 0.7 252.0 271.7 276.5 7.8% 1.8% 1.72 OUTPERFORM MATRIX CONCEPTS HOLDINGS BHD 2.28 1,256 7.6 5.7 7.0 7.9% 29.5% 1.7 182.6 243.1 198.9 33.1% -18.2% 2.46 MARKET

PERFORM CRESCENDO CORPORATION BHD* 1.66 378 8.8 19.8 18.7 2.0% 15.3% 0.4 43.3 19.1 20.3 -55.9% 6.3% 1.74 UNDERPERFORM HUA YANG BHD 1.79 473 4.3 4.2 4.5 7.3% 25.9% 0.9 110.6 111.6 106.1 0.9% -4.9% 2.20 OUTPERFORM IJM CORPORATION BHD* 3.40 12,166 24.2 19.0 17.4 4.5% 9.2% 0.6 488.6 622.4 680.0 27.4% 9.3% 2.20 MARKET

PERFORM Not Within Coverage PARAMOUNT CORP BHD 1.52 642 10.2 8.4 8.0 5.3% 7.3% 0.7 62.9 76.0 80.2 20.9% 5.6% 1.90 BUY EWEIN BHD 1.11 243 17.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.9% 2.0 14.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. CONSENSUS NUMBERS IGB CORPORATION BHD 2.28 3,044 13.8 12.5 11.2 3.3% 5.1% 0.7 221.1 244.3 271.0 10.5% 10.9% 4.10 NEUTRAL YNH PROPERTY BHD 1.82 739 57.6 13.5 10.5 1.6% 1.5% 0.9 12.8 54.8 70.2 327.2% 28.1% 1.83 NEUTRAL GLOMAC BHD 0.84 605 6.6 7.1 6.4 5.3% 9.8% 0.6 91.9 85.5 94.2 -6.9% 10.2% 1.03 BUY TAMBUN INDAH LAND BHD 1.28 543 5.6 5.4 5.5 6.3% 24.0% 1.3 97.6 99.7 98.9 2.2% -0.9% 1.62 BUY * Core NP and Core PER ** Crescendo per share data is based on non-Fully Diluted ^ Last price and TP is Ex-rights and Ex-Bonus. Source: Kenanga Research


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Stock Ratings are defined as follows: Stock Recommendations OUTPERFORM : A particular stock’s Expected Total Return is MORE than 10% (an approximation to the 5-year annualised Total Return of FBMKLCI of 10.2%). MARKET PERFORM : A particular stock’s Expected Total Return is WITHIN the range of 3% to 10%. UNDERPERFORM : A particular stock’s Expected Total Return is LESS than 3% (an approximation to the 12-month Fixed Deposit Rate of 3.15% as a proxy to Risk-Free Rate). Sector Recommendations*** OVERWEIGHT : A particular sector’s Expected Total Return is MORE than 10% (an approximation to the 5-year annualised Total Return of FBMKLCI of 10.2%). NEUTRAL : A particular sector’s Expected Total Return is WITHIN the range of 3% to 10%. UNDERWEIGHT : A particular sector’s Expected Total Return is LESS than 3% (an approximation to the

12-month Fixed Deposit Rate of 3.15% as a proxy to Risk-Free Rate). ***Sector recommendations are defined based on market capitalisation weighted average expected total return for stocks under our coverage.

This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may read this document. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees. Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad and its associates, their directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or otherwise, and may receive brokerage fees or act as principal or agent in dealings with respect to these companies.

Published and printed by: KENANGA INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD (15678-H) 8th Floor, Kenanga International, Jalan Sultan Ismail, 50250 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Chan Ken Yew Telephone: (603) 2166 6822 Facsimile: (603) 2166 6823 Website: www.kenanga.com.my Head of Research

Penang Property Study Trip NEUTRAL...2016/01/29 · Study Trip 29 January 2016...

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