Pelamis - moving wave energy from demonstration to ... Pelamis - moving wave energy from...
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Energy Institute, London 10 December 2013 www.energyinst.org
Pelamis - moving wave energy from demonstration to
commercialisation
EI Evening Lecture Programme 2013
Sponsored by:
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
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Energy Institute
London 10 December 2013 Simon Cheeseman – ETI Marine Programme Manager
©2013 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Who is the ETI?
• The Energy Technologies Institute (ETI)
is a public-private partnership between
global industries and UK Government
• Safeguarding affordable and secure
future energy mix
• Delivering proof of concept for new
energy technologies
• Our projects impact economic
development
©2013 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
9 Technology Programme areas
Delivering...
New knowledge
Technology development
Technology demonstration
ETI Project Portfolio
©2013 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
•Basic principles observed and reported 1
• Technology concept / application formulated 2 • Analytical and experimental critical function / characteristic proof-of-
concept 3
• Technology basic validation in a laboratory environment 4
• Technology basic validation in a relevant environment 5 • Technology model or prototype demonstration in a relevant
environment 6
• Technology prototype demonstration in an operational environment 7 • Actual Technology completed and qualified through test and
demonstration 8
• Actual Technology qualified through successful mission operations 9
Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs)
©2013 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
ETI / UKERC Roadmap
• Published in October 2010
• Provides the ETI / UKERC view on:
• The key technology & deployment issues
facing the UK marine energy sector
• How these issues should be prioritised (in the
context of potential ETI interventions)
• Technology cost and performance targets to
2050 that will be required to deliver significant
UK deployment
• Used by ETI to help define project interventions
©2013 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
ETI / UKERC Roadmap targets
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
UK Deployment
0 GW
~ 250 - 450 MW pa
(200 - 500 units pa)
~ 600 - 1200 MW pa
(500 - 1200 units pa)
FULL-SCALE DEMO
SMALL ARRAYS (2-10 MW)
LARGE ARRAYS (10 – 100 MW)
10 - 20 GW
Technology & System Performance
CAPEX
O&M Costs
Array Load Factor
Availability
CURRENT ESTIMATES
4,000 – 7,000 £/kW
1.5 – 4.0 p/kWh
25 – 35 %
75 - 85 %
2,500 – 4,000 £/kW
1.0 – 2.5 p/kWh
35 - 40 %
90 %
1,500 – 2,000 £/kW
0.3 – 1.0 p/kWh
40 - 45 %
95 - 98 %
1st GENERATION SYSTEMS
2nd and 3rd GENERATION SYSTEMS
RAPID BUILDOUT OF NEW PROJECTS
Overall COE 17 – 40 p/kWh 9 – 18 p/kWh 5 – 8 p/kWh
1 – 2 GW
~ 500 - 1200 MW pa
(400 - 1500 units pa)
6 – 12 GW
~ 150 - 300 MW pa
(100 - 300 units pa)
9 – 18 GW
ASSET REPLACEMENT + REDUCING NUMBER OF NEW PROJECTS
2,000 – 2,500 £/kW
0.5 – 1.5 p/kWh
37 - 42 %
90 - 95 %
7 – 10 p/kWh
©2013 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
ETI Marine Energy Projects Portfolio
©2013 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Wave energy converter (WEC) System
Demonstrator
What?
Analysis and design project for WEC arrays (10MW+)
How?
• Commenced Feb 13 completed Nov 13. Detailed
design & techno-economic evaluation (system-level
innovations) of Pelamis P2 design.
• Next steps practical demonstration of elements of
WEC array concept in a realistic environment.
Why?
• To demonstrate the ability of WEC arrays to meet
the cost & performance needed to deliver material
UK deployment levels.
©2013 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
For more information
about the ETI visit
www.eti.co.uk
For the latest ETI news and
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twitter.com/the_ETI
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For all general enquiries
telephone the ETI on
01509 202020.
Commercial in Confidence
Richard Yemm Chief Executive Officer
11 www.pelamiswave.com
Why wave energy?
• Major global resource, global market >€1,000bn
• Forecastable, out of sight, out of mind
• Projects will be bigger than tidal & can scale faster…
Real value to energy portfolio & mix
Major industrial & export opportunity
Ocean power conversion principles and theoretical global resource
Description Estimated global
resource
Wave power Surface and subsurface motion of the waves 8,000-80,000
TWh/year
Ocean thermal energy Uses the temperature differential between cold water from the deep
ocean and warm surface water
10,000 TWh/year
Osmotic energy Pressure differential between salt and fresh water 2,000 TWh/year
Tidal energy Hydrokinetic energy that harvests the energy of ocean currents and
tides
800 TWh/year
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2008
www.pelamiswave.com
Pelamis WEC – fundamental principles
Inherent survivability Optimal absorption
Available technology Viable I,O&M strategy
PELAMIS IS A UNIQUE COMBINATION OF THESE ESSENTIAL PRINCIPLES
www.pelamiswave.com
Pelamis WEC – development track record
Proof of concept based
with 1/7th scale model.
World’s first electricity
from offshore waves
into a national grid, with
1st full scale prototype.
World’s first wave farm.
Three full scale
machines operating in
Agucadoura (Portugal).
Upgraded prototype
installed in Orkney,
proving remote
connection system.
E.ON places order for
Pelamis machine – the
first order of a wave
power device by a utility.
Ministerial launch of
E.ON’s P2 machine.
Installed and operating at
Orkney.
Scottish Power’s
Pelamis deployment. –
UK’s first ‘wave-farm’
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Initial array
deployment
Company founded to
design and develop
wave energy converter
technology.
1
1
1 1
1
• Systematic attainment of “World’s first” & “World’s only” milestones
• Has been a difficult path… but we are finally getting there
• Three major utilities aligned with Pelamis – initial technology convergence…
• Unique and solid IP platform – patents, knowhow, technical lockouts etc
www.pelamiswave.com
Pelamis WEC – initial project pipeline
Key
Connected or agreed grid connection
Signed lease agreement with Crown Estates
Advanced development stage
Scotland
Pelamis HQ
2
3
1
4
5
E.ON Orkney site 50MW
Vattenfall Shetland 10MW (40MW)
Pelamis Bernera 10MW
Pelamis Farr Point 50MW
SPR Marwick 50MW
2
3
1
4
5
www.pelamiswave.com
Video tour!
http://www.youtube.com/user/PelamisWavePower
Operations
CONFIDENTIAL 17
Pelamis WEC – learning in industrial technology
P2 is pretty much here…
• Fundamentals are right
• Fully functional
• Ultimate potential reassuringly
greater
• Visible path to get here, with lots of
options…
• Combinations of learning by doing,
scale, volume, and from fundamental
research
• As usual, will get much of the way
quickly & efficiently!
Forward business plan – four strands
1 On-going P2 operations
(maximise value from existing assets)
3 Farr Point project site
(accelerated ‘Array TRL8’)
4 Intense parallel R&D
(accelerate CoE convergence)
2 Design & build of P2e+
(step change CoE reduction)
Cost of Energy – the most important metric…
Optimising CoE trajectory for Pelamis
has been, and is, key to business case
Cumulative capacity
Conceptual phase
First-of-a-kind
Capital cost
Normal learning curve Extended learning
Rapid
learning
Cumulative capacity
Conceptual phase
First-of-a-kind
Capital cost
Normal learning curve Extended learning
Rapid
learning
• All new technologies follow a similar cost-learning process
• Cost reductions delivered through a mix of innovation and volume effects
• Optimising this mix will give lowest “cost to commercialise”
Pelamis WEC – Cost of Energy assessment
Well validated Inputs:
• Costs, performance, O&M models, balance of plant, facilities, etc
• Peer reviewed with range of stakeholders
CoE modelling:
• Full project model
• Uncertainties quantified
• Sensitivity analysis incorporated
• Peer reviewed
Progress Iterations Update rate
2000 2000 500
select above Machine installed cost (£m)
option mean stdev lower mode upper Rating CF notes
1 162 0.082 3.02 3.20 3.42 0.5 32.4%
2 273 0.082 3.39 3.62 3.89 0.8 34.1% Concrete
3 202 0.082 3.59 3.82 4.07 0.6 33.7%
4 345 0.082 4.06 4.32 4.61 1.0 34.5% Concrete
MONTE CARLO INPUTS
PARAMETER Generated Expected LOWER MODE UPPER MEAN STDEV
Annual average Shetland (kW) 359 345 345 0.082
Machine installed cost (£m) 4.323 4.330 4.056 4.322 4.611
Spares (£m) 0.87 0.80 0.8 0.2
Project development (£m) 1.05 1.00 0.9 1 1.1
Availability 92.9% 93.0% 0.91 0.93 0.95
Transmission eff iciency 97.5% 98.0% 0.97 0.98 0.99
£m/MW Balance of plant 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.30 0.35
£/MWh (equivalent 5 x ROCs) 320.4 320.0 300 320 340
O&M (£k/machine/yr) 50 50 45 50 55
Grid charges, TNuoS etc £k/MW/yr 131 125 80 100 195
Other operating costs £k/yr 150 200 200 20
Annual insurance (% capex) 1.3% 1.2% 0.01 0.012 0.014
Annual lease costs (% sales) 0.33% 0.34% 0.0033 0.0034 0.0035
Decommissioning (£m/machine) 0.11 0.10 0.05 0.1 0.15
4Machine option
Perf (kW ann avg)
Run iterations
VA
LID
AT
ED
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
ETI WEC – Phase 1 Work Packages
WP8 CoE modelling
YIELD
CAPEX
OPEX
WP3 Hydrodynamics &
Machine Geometry
WP4 Main Structure &
Mechanical Elements
WP5 Control &
Power Take-off
WP7 Array
Architecture
WP6 Reliability,
Availability, O&M
CoE
Structured & comprehensive programme
covering all key cost of energy drivers
ETI WEC – Phase 1 workplan
Jan 2013 Nov 2013
Innovative Technical
Solutions
• Review & rank
innovations
• Describe onward
methodologies
• Assimilate data
from current P2
System Integration
• Innovation
embodiments
• Design proposals
• Performance
modelling
• Reliability analysis
• Costs
Demonstration &
Phase 2 plan
• LCoE impact
• O&M innovations
• Array architectures
• Phase 2 plan
ETI WEC – forecast CoE impact
Huge impact and return on
investment possible from
early RD&D investment
• Many scenarios analysed and interpreted
• Large and ‘persistent’ reduction on CoE through commercialisation
• Key drivers/opportunities:
YIELD, STRUCTURAL COST, RELIABILITY
ETI WEC – forecast CoE impact
• Total cumulative spend (area under the curve) gives better ‘visualisation’
• Curves are cumulative cost of all generation above current best low
carbon generation (wind, nuclear etc) => “cost to converge”
Optimising innovation progression best
way to minimise cost to consumer…
• Even “basic track” is lower than any previous “cost to converge”
• With intensive RD&D in parallel there is the clear opportunity to
dramatically reduce the “cost to converge” further
Conclusions
• Pelamis has established a market leading position in wave energy
• RD&D to date has provided a unique and solid platform for CoE analysis
• ETI WEC Phase 1 has shown there are many options to pursue
• Aggressive RD&D in parallel with initial roll-out key to optimising track
• Onward business plan structured around these key priorities
THANK YOU!