Peak OilPeak Oil

we’ll never “run out” of oilwe’ll never “run out” of oil

we’re running out of we’re running out of

cheap, plentiful oilcheap, plentiful oil

oil underpinsoil underpins– industrial developmentindustrial development

– agricultureagriculture

– economicseconomics

– populationpopulation

about ½ way through it…about ½ way through it…

it’s going to declineit’s going to decline

Peak Oil – a theory?Peak Oil – a theory?

98 oil producers98 oil producers

Peak Oil – a theory?Peak Oil – a theory?

Not a theory for these 64 post peak producersNot a theory for these 64 post peak producers

Peak Oil – official numbersPeak Oil – official numbers

EIA - EIA - Energy Information Administration

IEA - International Energy Agency

Peak Oil – what’s it like?Peak Oil – what’s it like?

terminal declineterminal decline

demand destructiondemand destruction

examples: examples:

– 1990s: North Korea1990s: North Korea

– 1990s: Cuba1990s: Cuba

– 2000: UK fuel crisis2000: UK fuel crisis

– Now: Poor countriesNow: Poor countries

Climate Change – the end of Climate Change – the end of the debatethe debate

Warming of the climate Warming of the climate system is unequivocalsystem is unequivocal

Most of the observed Most of the observed increase in globally increase in globally averaged temperatures averaged temperatures since the mid-20th since the mid-20th century is very likely century is very likely (confidence level >90%) (confidence level >90%) due to the observed due to the observed increase in human increase in human greenhouse gas greenhouse gas concentrationsconcentrations

The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:

Upsala Glacier, ArgentinaUpsala Glacier, Argentina

Can we respond?Can we respond?

Going up the energy slope, we usedGoing up the energy slope, we used– ingenuity– creativity– adaptability– cooperation

Going back down…– if we’re early enough– if we’re cooperative– the future could be a

whole lot better…

What’s stopping us? (1)What’s stopping us? (1)

Dominant myths of todayDominant myths of today– Things are getting betterThings are getting better– Economic growth is goodEconomic growth is good– We must keep shoppingWe must keep shopping– Technology will solve all our problemsTechnology will solve all our problems– There is no alternativeThere is no alternative– You can’t stop progressYou can’t stop progress– Living standards are risingLiving standards are rising– Humans are selfish and greedy by natureHumans are selfish and greedy by nature– The market will solve itThe market will solve it– We’re all doomed…We’re all doomed…

What’s stopping us? (2)What’s stopping us? (2)

Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment)Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment) Short term vs long term thinkingShort term vs long term thinking

– rational vs emotional, neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilianrational vs emotional, neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilian

Belief in authority figuresBelief in authority figures– electrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal doseelectrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal dose– obedient children surviveobedient children survive

Sunk cost, or investment in the presentSunk cost, or investment in the present– ““it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job

depends on him not believing it”depends on him not believing it”

OptimismOptimism– an optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfillingan optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfilling

Peak Oil – happening now Peak Oil – happening now (if you’re poor)(if you’re poor)

AsiaAsia– NepalNepal

– PakistanPakistan

– BangladeshBangladesh

– Sri LankaSri Lanka

– PhilippinesPhilippines

– ChinaChina

– IndiaIndia

– VietnamVietnam

AfricaAfrica– UgandaUganda

– ZimbabweZimbabwe

– GhanaGhana

– NigeriaNigeria

– SenegalSenegal

– KenyaKenya

– GambiaGambia

– PhilippinesPhilippines

AmericasAmericas– ArgentinaArgentina

– NicaraguaNicaragua

– ChileChile

– Costa RicaCosta Rica

– Dominican RepublicDominican Republic

Middle EastMiddle East– IraqIraq

– IranIran

Peak Oil – who’s peaked (1)?Peak Oil – who’s peaked (1)?

Top 20 - 85% of all oil extracted worldwide

Peaked Not yet peaked57% of world 27% of world

Russia, United States, Mexico, China, Norway, Canada, Venezuela, United Kingdom, Iraq, Algeria, Libya, Indonesia, Oman

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Nigeria, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Brazil, Kazakhstan

Climate Change – weather Climate Change – weather extremesextremes

Climate Change – moral Climate Change – moral issue or personal interest?issue or personal interest?

Some regions will be more affected than others:Some regions will be more affected than others:– The Arctic (ice sheet loss, ecosystem changes)The Arctic (ice sheet loss, ecosystem changes)– Sub-Saharan Africa (water stress, reduced crops)Sub-Saharan Africa (water stress, reduced crops)– Small islands (coastal erosion, inundation)Small islands (coastal erosion, inundation)– Asian mega-deltas (flooding from sea and rivers)Asian mega-deltas (flooding from sea and rivers)– coastal aquifers will be contaminated by sea watercoastal aquifers will be contaminated by sea water

Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable:Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable:– Coral reefs, marine shell organismsCoral reefs, marine shell organisms– Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean

regionsregions– 20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinction20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinction

Your town?Your town?

Our choice…Our choice…

We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it. getting engulfed by it.

Peak or Plateau?Peak or Plateau?

Existing fields decline – 4.5%Existing fields decline – 4.5%

= Peak in 2015= Peak in 2015

Peak Oil & Climate ChangePeak Oil & Climate Change

CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE(a la Stern et al.)(a la Stern et al.)climate engineeringclimate engineeringcarbon capture and carbon capture and

storagestoragetree-based carbon tree-based carbon

offsetsoffsetsinternational international

emissions tradingemissions tradingclimate adaptationclimate adaptationimproved improved

transportation transportation logisticslogistics

nuclear powernuclear power

PLANNED RELOCALISATION

local resiliencecarbon reductionconsume closer to homeproduce closer to homeplay closer to homedecentralised energy

infrastructurethe Great Reskillinglocalised foodenergy descent planslocal medicinal capacitylocal currencies

PEAK OILPEAK OIL(a la Hirsch et al.)(a la Hirsch et al.)coal to liquidscoal to liquidsgas to liquidsgas to liquidsrelaxed drilling relaxed drilling

regulationsregulationsmassively scaled massively scaled

biofuelsbiofuelstar sands and non-tar sands and non-

conventional oilsconventional oilsresource resource

nationalism and nationalism and stockpilingstockpiling

A ‘grass roots’ movement Established June 2008

transport, energy, food, social support, textiles,

health & wellbeing, waste & consumerism,

art & performance.

www.transitionbuxton.co.uk

Film

Food

Food

Plant and seed swaps

Fruit tree planting : Community Orchard @ Fairfield Schools & Burbage

Food

CSA – Community Supported AgricultureAllotments Landshare Forest GardeningBee KeepingSeed Swapping & Plant stallsCommunity OrchardGuerilla gardeningEducation

Transport

• Car pooling• Buxton Bikes• Monsal Trail/Rail Enquiry

Energy

• Insulation seminar

• Curtain lining workshops

• Renewable Energy Seminar

Education

• Schools work – PSHE

• “Transition Tales” with ‘Funny Wonders’ puppet workshop

• Tree-planting - Fairfield

“Visioning”Creating positive mental goals to work towards!

•Visioning workshops

•Public consulting

•Talks

What can the BCA do?

OPTION 1 – DO NOTHINGWait & react to events.

NOT AN OPTION!- BCA already committed to ‘enhancing the environmental & social benefits’ arising from its assets - And has clear environmental policy statement.

What can the BCA do?OPTION 2 – Identify potential Risks of

Peak Oil & Climate Change to BCA:- Pest & disease- Fire - Increase in extreme weather events –

wind, drought

- Invasive species- Pressure for land – population movement? Food?

- Fuelwood foraging

DRAW UP PROTECTIVE MEASURES

What can the BCA do?

OPTION 3 – BE PROACTIVE

Aim to be part of community’s resilience-building

“Vision” - Look forward to what we can do now to assist the next generation

A Vision for BCA?

• Environmental Change = inevitable• need to be adaptable and prepared.

• Social change - 1. reduced fossil fuels -> demand for

affordable fuel : incr. Woodburners2. High Food prices -> demand for

land/local produce3. Demand for Building materials -> timber

A Vision for BCA?1. Fuel : • potential risk to woods from uncontrolled

firewood cutting/foraging

• Currently a high % of sycamore.

• Most UK woodland not ‘Natural’ : highly managed

• ?PLANT NEW WOODS? • ? Coppicing – ecological benefits &

attaches economic value to woodlands.

A Vision for BCA?

2. Food :i. Forest Gardens? ii. Foraging opportunities? –

currants & berries? hazelnuts? Mushrooms?

iii. Allotments? iv. …?

What Next?

We believe the BCA can play an important role in the future of Buxton – big changes ahead- need a long-term strategy- need a sense of URGENCY

Discussion: end this meeting with an Action ! (strategy? Proposal to board? Membership discussion?)