Peak Oil: The global war for Oil and Gas:What role for insulation and the EU housing sector?

Dr. Daniele Ganser, Peak Oil and Geostrategic Research, Basel University, SwitzerlandEURIMA, Athens, 30. May 2008

USA 2003

Peak Oil from a distance

1850

0 mbd

mbd: million barrels per day

1914

1 mbd

1945

6 mbd

1962

22 mbd

1986

61 mbd

2002

79 mbd

2007

85 mbd

• „We can be happy ifwe can reach 100 Million Barrels per day.“

• Chef des französischen Ölkonzerns Total, Christophe de Margerie. Zitiert in: Spiegel Online: Ölindustrie warnt vor neuem Preis-Schock, 1. Nov 07

Energiekrise ?

Quelle: Total

www.planete-energies.com

• At the beginning of the 21 stcentury, we are at a turning point. Exploration and discovery of new fields is not capable by itself of renewing reserves.

• The threat of shortages in the immediate future hangs over us, that is to say in the next 5 years for the pessimists and the next 25 years for the more optimistic: supply will no longer be capable of responding to an ever-increasing demand: we will have attained Peak Oil.

• www.planete-energies.com

• Shell • “Just when energydemand is surging, manyof the world’sconventional oilfields aregoing into decline.”

• Quelle: Jeroen van der Veer, chiefexecutive of Royal Dutch Shell. In: Energy crisis cannot be solved byrenewables, oil chiefs say, The Times, June 25, 2007

• “The underlyingmarket is itselftight. For themedium term, theera of cheapenergy is behindus.”

• Quelle: BP CEO Tony Hayward to an audience of industry professionals in Houston, USA, 8. November 2007. www.bp.com

Netherlands OilNetherlands Oil

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Norway OilNorway Oil

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Europe OilEurope Oil

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Europe GasEurope Gas

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• „We are on the brinkof a new energy order ... We should not clingto crude down to thelast drop – we shouldleave oil before itleaves us.“

• Quelle: Faith Birol, (chief economist at theInternational Energy Agency): We can't clingto crude: we should leave oil before it leaves

us. The independent 2 March 2008

• ``We should be prepared to see higher oil prices becausethe latest report I read from theInternational Energy Agency isvery worrying.“

• „I would say $120 a barrel, thatis what I am afraid of.''

• Quelle: Andris Piebalgs, the European Union'sEnergy Commissioner Oil $200 Options Rise 10-Fold in Bet on Higher Crude. Bloomberg 7. Jan. 2008

• „We are facing the so called"oil peak" problem.“

• „More and more experts saythat we will reach the peakwithin the next 20 years. Someeven say we have reached thepeak right now.“

• Quelle: Andris Piebalgs. Vortrag: Die Strategie der EU in der EnergieundKlimapolitik – Ist die Energieversorgung langfristig gesichert? Swiss EnergyCongress, Bern, 14 January 2008

• „What people need to hear, loud and clear, is that we'rerunning out of energy in America.“

• „We've got to find additional supplies of energy.“

• Quelle: President Bush, The White House, May 3, 2001. Titel: Remarks by thePresident, Secretary of Energy Abraham and Deputy Secretary of Defense WolfowitzAfter Energy Advisors Meeting

• http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/05/20010503-4.html

National Energy Policy Development Group (NEPDG) 2001

• “We have reason to believe that Saddam Hussein is building an atomic weapon.“

• US Vizepräsident Dick Cheney, März 2003. Zitiertin: Zwei Jahre danach. Bush’s endloser Krieg gegenden Terror. Spiegel, 18. September 2003

• “Iraq has chemical and biological weapons ... The country can launch missiles within 45 minutes."

• Quelle: Tony Blair, 24. September 2002. Zitiert in: Zwei Jahre danach. Bush’s endloser Krieg gegenden Terror. Spiegel, 18. September 2003

Peak Oil ?

http://911research.wtc7.net/wtc/evidence/videos/index.html

• „It looks as if building WTC7 has been brought down by controlleddemolition, that‘s a high probability.“

• Quelle: Prof. emerit. Jörg Schneider, ETH Institut für Baustatik und Konstruktion (IBK). Hintergrundsgespräch mit Dr. Daniele Ganser, 14. Dezember 2005

Parlamentarier Yukihisa Fujita frägt zu WTC7, January 11th 2008

Hu Jintao

China 2005

800 cars per 1000 people in the US500 cars per 1000 people in the EU9 cars per 1000 people in China

Dimitri Medwedew

Start: Russian onshore section of the North European Gas Pipeline - on 9, December, 2005

• On January 1, 2006 Russia stopped its Gas exports to the Ukraine after a price dispute. Theconflict was solved on January 4.

Mikhail Chodorkovsky, arrested October 2003

Energy Chess by Daniele Ganser: Figures for Deutschland

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear

Biomass Biogas Water Tidal

Sun Wind Geothermal Efficency

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1 2 3 4

36% 22% 25% 12%

3%Less than

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UNLIMITED!

www.danieleganser.ch