Peak Oil The Forward End of the Curve
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Transcript of Peak Oil The Forward End of the Curve
Peak Oil The Forward End of the Curve
Presentation to the
City of Madison
April 10, 2006
By
Mark Daugherty
Focus On Energy
Renewable Energy Business Development
This presentation is funded in part by Focus on Energy.
Oil and Gas Supply
Global oil discoveries are following a typical bell shaped curve.
Note: Global data shown here is reported by ExxonMobil, it is consistent with many others. See: Harry J. Longwell, executive VP of Exxon-Mobil corporation, http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php, http://www.feasta.org/documents/wells/contents.html?one/longwell.html and C.J.Campbell, ASPO http://www.peakoil.net/, http://www.peakoil.ie/downloads/newsletters/newsletter35_200311.pdf* IHS Consultants at http://www.ihsenergy.com/
2003 first year since 1920s no single discovery > 500 million barrels. (No single field found large enough to meet demand for 1 week.)*
From the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) 2004See also: Global Oil and Gas Depletion: an Overview, R.W. Bently, Energy Policy 30 (2002) 189-205. Congressman Rosco Bartlett (R-6-MD), Congressional Record, March 14, 2005, Pages H1409-H1414. http://www.bartlett.house.gov/SupportingFiles/documents/PeakOil.pdf
Data Forecast
Global conventional oil production peak estimated in 2006 to 2008 timeframe.
Current demand is beginning to hit physical supply constraints
(Bil
lio
n B
arre
ls /
Yr)
V1
V2
V1 = V2
From the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) 2002.Excellent Summary on Peak Oil: Congressman Rosco Bartlett (R-6-MD), Congressional Record, March 14, 2005, Pages H1409-H1414. http://www.bartlett.house.gov/SupportingFiles/documents/PeakOil.pdf
Gap
Natural Gas : US, Canada & Mexico Discoveries and Production
V1
V2
V1 = V2
Discovery curve shifted
23 years.
See: http://www.peakoil.net/JL/JeanL.html
In 2002 Oil and Gas made up 62% of global primary energy supply.
Source International Energy Agency (IEA) http://www.iea.org/statist/index.htm
What about non - conventional fossil fuel supplies?
• Technologies include: tar sands, oil shale, heavy oil, gas to liquids technology
• Like trying to drink through a smaller and smaller straw. • Lower energy return, Extensive environmental damage.• Strip mining + heating or steam injection.• 1.5-2 tons material processed per barrel of oil.• Bottom line: higher cost, smaller volume
~ 10 times current global coal mining required to meet present oil needs with tar sands or oil shale.
Historical Primary Energy Substitution
http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/snowmass%5Fnakicenovic%2Epdf
Possible Global Energy Supply (2005-2100)
0.0E+00
1.0E+13
2.0E+13
3.0E+13
4.0E+13
5.0E+13
6.0E+13
7.0E+13
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
kW
Ho
ur Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewable
For background data see: http://www.eia.doe.gov/, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas.html, http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/coalreserves.htm, http://www.iea.org/, http://www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/u/uranium-reserves.htm, http://www.peakoil.net/
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewable
Possible Cumulative Global Energy Supply (2005-2100)
0.00E+00
2.00E+13
4.00E+13
6.00E+13
8.00E+13
1.00E+14
1.20E+14
1.40E+14
1.60E+14
1.80E+14
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
kW H
ou
r
Renewable
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
For background data see: http://www.eia.doe.gov/, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas.html, http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/coalreserves.htm, http://www.iea.org/, http://www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/u/uranium-reserves.htm, http://www.peakoil.net/
Burning fossil fuels generates greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change.
Minimum Artic Ice 1979 Minimum Artic Ice 2005
Inage: MSNBC, Associated Press, Sept. 29, 2005http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9527485/Thinning: Professor Peter Wadhams, Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge, UK, BBC news, Wednesday, 27 March, 2002 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/1894740.stm
Ice ~ 43% thinner in 1996 than in 1976
Antartica - Collapse of Larsen B Ice Shelf
•3,250 km2 of shelf area disintegrated.•Glacier speeds increased ~ 250% after collapse.
National Snow and Ice Data Centerhttp://nsidc.org/iceshelves/larsenb2002/http://nsidc.org/news/press/20031219_speed_up.html
31 January, 2002 5 March, 2002
Extent of ice melt in Greenland, 1992 and 2002
John P. Holdren, Harvard University, Co-Chair National Commission on Energy Policy, 2005 Institutional Investor Summit on Climate Risk,United Nations • New York • 10 May 2005, citing Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004
+7 m
+12 m +70 m
GIS = Greenland Ice Sheet
WAIS = West Antarctic Ice Sheet
EAIS = East Antarctic Ice Sheet
(Estimated time scale is several centuries.)
From a presentation by Richard B. Alley, U. of Pennsylvania, Cited by John P. Holdren, Harvard University, Co-Chair National Commission on Energy Policy, 2005 Institutional Investor Summit on Climate Risk,United Nations • New York • 10 May 2005, citing Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004
Impact of Melting Ice
Greenhouse Gas emissions for advanced generation (2010-2020) technologies.
0
50
100
150
200
Coal NaturalGas
SolarPV
Wind
g C
Eq
/ k
Wh
Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Electricity Generation Chains, Joseph Spadaro, Lucille Langlois and Bruce Hamilton, IEA Bulliten 42/2/2000
Three options to meet demand for carbon-
neutral energy• Fossil fuel with carbon sequestration
• 25 billion metric tons of CO2 produced annually• Equal to the volume of Lake Superior• 1% leak rate would nullify sequestration in a century
• Nuclear power • 10 TW of nuclear power = a new 1-GWe plant every 2 days for the next
50 years. • Then terrestrial uranium exhausted in 10 years.
• Renewable energy• Exploitable hydroelectric < 0.5 TW • Tides and ocean currents < 2 TW• Geothermal energy << 12 TW• Wind potential ~ 2-4 TW • Solar ~120,000 TW strikes the Earth
• 10% efficient solar energy “farm” covering 1.6% of the U.S. land area would meet the country’s entire domestic energy needs (2005 Global Consumption ~ 14 TW)
• Comparable with the land area covered by the nation’s federally numbered highways.
Source: US DOE BASIC RESEARCH NEEDS FOR SOLAR ENERGY UTILIZATION Report on the Basic Energy Sciences Workshop on Solar Energy Utilization, April 18-21, 2005
Possible Cumulative Global Supply with Coal Restriction
0.0E+00
2.0E+13
4.0E+13
6.0E+13
8.0E+13
1.0E+14
1.2E+14
1.4E+14
1.6E+14
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
kW H
ou
r
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
For background data see: http://www.eia.doe.gov/, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas.html, http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/coalreserves.htm, http://www.iea.org/, http://www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/u/uranium-reserves.htm, http://www.peakoil.net/
It will be difficult to meet current energy demand growth indefinitely.
0.0E+00
5.0E+13
1.0E+14
1.5E+14
2.0E+14
2.5E+14
3.0E+14
3.5E+14
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
kW H
ou
r
Demand at 1.8%/yr growth
Total energy supply from
previous slide.
Effort is required on 2 fronts
1) Reduce energy consumption growth Use efficiency and conservation Economic growth still possible
2) Develop non-fossil fuel supplies Solar electric, wind, solar thermal, biomass Grid, storage, forecasting and control optimized
for non-fossil fuel supply utilization.
Front 1:Increasing efficiency and conservation by 1.8% per yr
0.0E+00
5.0E+13
1.0E+14
1.5E+14
2.0E+14
2.5E+14
3.0E+14
3.5E+14
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
kW H
ou
r
Stabilize demand growth.
Allow economic growth.
Demand at 1.8%/yr growth
Supply
Efficiency and conservation
Stable demand
Front 2:Increase renewable energy supply
0.0E+00
2.0E+13
4.0E+13
6.0E+13
8.0E+13
1.0E+14
1.2E+14
1.4E+14
1.6E+14
1.8E+14
2.0E+14
2005
2011
2017
2023
2029
2035
2041
2047
2053
2059
2065
2071
2077
2083
2089
2095
kW H
ou
r
Conventional Supply
Renewable energy supply
Current renewable energy growth rates exceed those required to transition to a fully
renewable energy supply.
http://www.ren21.net/globalstatusreport/RE2005_Global_Status_Report.pdfhttp://www.earthscan.co.uk/news/article/mps/uan/508/v/3/sp/IEA: http://www.oja-services.nl/iea-pvps/AWEA: http://www.awea.org/pubs/documents/globalmarket2003.pdf
• 2004 investment in renewables ~ US $30 billion
• Investment in entire power generation sector ~ $150 billion
• Renewable energy capacity to 160 GW ~ 4% of global power.
How should we invest the remaining fossil energy?
Coal
Nat. Gas
Solar (PV)
Wind
Energy Input
Energy Output
Note: Coal and Natural Gas energy output limited to combustion efficiency at a maximum. Fuel supply, plant construction and decommissioning, and O&M energy uses reduce output below combustion efficiency. Solar, wind and bio can have terrestrial energy output greater than one since they are accessing solar energy entering the terrestrial system from the sun. See: http://www.awea.org/faq/bal.html, http://www.ecotopia.com/apollo2/knapp/PVEPBTPaper.pdf
(30 to 80 depending on site and technology)
Ethanol
Bio Diesel
Electrical Generation
Liquid Fuel Production
Input Output
What might a Wisconsin Renewable energy supply look like?
Notes:
This is a rough estimate, only intended to show magnitudes.
Wisconsin current electrical generation capacity ~12,000 MW.
Wind is not necessarily all located in Wisconsin.
Wind at 27% capacity factor.
Solar at 1250 kWh/yr per rated kW output.
Percent Annual Continuous Ratedof Output Equivalent Capacity
Total (kWh) (MW) (MW)Wind 20% 1.2E+11 13,423 49,716Solar Electric 50% 2.9E+11 33,558 235,178Biomass 15% 8.8E+10 10,068 10,068Solar Thermal 15% 8.8E+10 10,068 70,553
100% 5.9E+11 67,117