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“Peak Oil” – It’s coming Dave Kilsby ASPO Australia.
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Transcript of “Peak Oil” – It’s coming Dave Kilsby ASPO Australia.
“Peak Oil” – It’s coming
Dave Kilsby
ASPO Australia
It can’t be ignored
Why does it matter?
time
qu
anti
ty/y
ear
Demand
Supply
rising pricesharder procurementfalling EPR
we are somewhere near here
Forecast Transport Energy Consumption Growth for
AustraliaSource: Energy White Paper 2004
ASPO Australia
aims to:
• encourage the acknowledgement and study of Peak Oil particularly as it affects Australia
• be a source of independent information for businesses, governments and communities
• collaborate with other bodies to help prepare and implement relevant policies and strategies
• promote awareness of the issue of peak oil and gas
ASPO Australia Working Groups
• Oil & gas industry• Biofuels• Indigenous & Remote
Communities• Agriculture, fisheries
& food• Finance & economics
• Urban & transport planning
• Social services• Active transport• Construction industry• Health sector
• Defence
+ working groups for NSW, Victoria, Queensland, ACT, WA, SA
How much oil and gas is there? (ASPO 2005 estimate)
What about Australia? Haven’t we got plenty of our own oil?
Not for much longer! (Geosciences Australia)
Recent oil price fluctuationsWeekly average closing price for Nymex crude
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Week (Week 1 - early June 2004)
US
$/b
arr
el
Unreliability of ABARE forecasts3, 6, 9 and 12 month forecasts
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05
Oct-06
Date
WT
I p
rice
, U
S$/
bb
l
3 month prediction
6 month prediction
9 month prediction
12 month prediction
actual price
VAMPIRE(Source: Dodson & Sipe, Griffith University,2006)
Alternatives to cars (from Sydney Metro Strategy)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Tonnes Tonne-km
AirSeaRailRoad
Domestic freight task % moved by mode 1999-2000
Alternative transport fuels?
• Renewables
• Biofuels
• Conventional oil
• Unconventional oil
• Natural gas
• Coal
• Nuclear
• Hydrogen
Conclusions
• Transport over 40% of final energy use in Australia
• Transport heavily dependent on liquid fuels (oil)
• The age of cheap oil is almost over• Short-term urgency in planning for
post-oil age• More mitigation options in cities than
in rural areas
What to do?• Commonwealth to become involved• “Do nothing” not an option• No magic bullet • ASPO Australia advocates
– community engagement, individualised marketing, fuel tax escalator, tradeable fuel allocation system
• Leadership required • Buy time!
For further information
• www.sydneypeakoil.com – Sydney Peak Oil Group
• www.aspo-australia.org.au– ASPO Australia
• www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/rrat-ctte– over 180 submissions to an Inquiry into oil supply &
alternative fuels: …/oil_supply/submissions/sublist.html
• www.peakoil.net– ASPO
• www.energybulletin.net– (one of many good international sites for Peak Oil info)