James SamuelNational Facilitator

Transition Towns NZ Aotearoa

www.transitiontowns.org.nz

Peak oil, climate change and transition towns

Agenda

Peak Oil and its effects Climate Change (brief) Responses at different levels

– global, national, local, personal

PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” What is a transition town Examples and achievements so far Q&A discussion

Peak Oil – fields, regions, world we’ll never “run out” of oil

we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil

oil underpins

– industrial development

– agriculture

– economics

– population

about ½ way through it…

it’s going to decline

Peak Oil – discoveryBefore you extract it, you have to find it

Peak Oil – official numbers EIA - EIA - Energy Information Administration

IEA - International Energy Agency

Peak Oil – what’s it like? Terminal decline

Demand destruction

Examples:

– 1990s: North Korea

– 1990s: Cuba

– 2000: UK fuel crisis

– Now: Poor countries

Peak Oil – happening now (if you’re poor)

Asia

– Nepal

– Pakistan

– Bangladesh

– Sri Lanka

– Philippines

– China

– India

– Vietnam

Africa

– Uganda

– Zimbabwe

– Ghana

– Nigeria

– Senegal

– Kenya

– Gambia

– Philippines

Americas

– Argentina

– Nicaragua

– Chile

– Costa Rica

– Dominican Republic

Middle East

– Iraq

– Iran

Climate Changethe end of the debate

Warming of the climate Warming of the climate system is unequivocalsystem is unequivocal

Most of the observed Most of the observed increase in globally increase in globally averaged temp's since averaged temp's since the mid-20th century is the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the level >90%) due to the observed increase in observed increase in human greenhouse human greenhouse gas concentrationsgas concentrations

The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:

Upsala Glacier, ArgentinaUpsala Glacier, Argentina

Climate Changeweather extremes

Fossil Fuels, Carbon, and Economic Growth

What can be done? Global

– Oil Depletion Protocol

– Contraction and Convergence

– Kyoto

National– TEQs (energy rationing)

Community– Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural

Personal– “The work that reconnects”

– Lessons from addiction counselling

Can we respond? Going up the energy slope, we used

– ingenuity

– creativity

– adaptability

– cooperation

Going back down…– if we’re early enough

– if we’re cooperative

– the future could be a whole lot better…

What’s stopping us? Myths of today

– Technology will solve all our problems

– There is no alternative

– Civilisation is the pinnacle of human achievement

– Living standards are rising

– New, better, faster, shinier ____ are just around the corner

– Humans are selfish and greedy by nature

– The market will solve it

If our water comes from a tap, and our food comes from a supermarket– We will defend the systems which sustain us

Where are we going?

Indu

stria

l As

cent

• - Energy & Resource Use- Energy & Resource Use• - Population• - Pollution - Pollution

Peak Energy?

Techno-Fantasy

Green-Tech Green-Tech StabilityStability

Earth

stewardshipPost Mad Max Collapse

Great Grand ChildrenAgriculture10.000yrs BP

Industrial Revolution

Baby Boom

Pre-industrial culture

Historical Time Future Time

Creative Descent

(Permaculture)

Who’s doing creative, orderly energy descent?

43 Towns at last count

How are they organising? Transition Model Understanding:

PO + CC = The end of “business as usual” Adaptability, Creativity NOW

7 Buts 12 Steps Transition Network

Peak Oil & Climate Change Climate Change mitigations must:

reduce emissions (reduce oil usage) Peak Oil mitigations must:

build local resilience Which means doing it closer to home - re-localisation

consumption production work play

Our choice… We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future,

whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather be engulfed by it.