Peak oil, climate change and a world beyond oil
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Transcript of Peak oil, climate change and a world beyond oil
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Peak oil, climate change and a world beyond oil
Woking LA21
HG Wells Centre
29 September 2010
David Strahan
www.odac-info.org
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Why they call it peak oil
Source: ASPO
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Source: UKERC, DECC
Why oil peaksUK North Sea oil production by field
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● Oil supplies 95% transport energy
● Agriculture: producing 1 calorie of food requires 10 calories of fossil energy.
● Oil and gas provide all petrochemicals and lubricants
● Oil drives gas and power prices
● Oil price spikes cause recessions
Why it matters
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Peak oil and climate change
Source data: IEA WEO 2009
28bn tCO2 2007
CO2 emissions by sector
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The primacy of oil
Source data: IEA Renewables Data, 2009
12026 Mtoe, 2007
Global primary energy by fuel
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Where the oil goes
Source data: ITPOES, 2010
85m barrels / day
Oil use by function
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Oil producers (98)
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Post peak oil producers (64)
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Source: IHS Energy; Groppe, Long & Littell
Couldn’t we find some more?
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Non-conventionals slow
Tar sands output 2035: 6.3 mb/d ?
Growth in the Canadian Oil Sands, IHS CERA 2009
Conventional depletion to 2030: 60 mb/dGlobal Oil Depletion, UKERC, 2009
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Sadad al-Huseini 2004Kenneth Deffeyes 2005Bank Macquarie 2009 Colin Campbell 2010Petrobras 2010ITPOES 2014Total 2015Douglas-Westwood 2015PFC Energy 2020UKERC ‘significant risk’ pre-2020Shell 2020sIEA 2020-30
We’re all peakists now….
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Are we there yet?
Source: Energyquote
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● Oil price volatility, rising spikes
● Serial recessions
● Shrinking fuel supply
● Short term outages – 2000 revisited?
● Sooner than climate change!
Impacts
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● ‘1st generation’: food crops In Europe/US, 5% road fuel = 20% cropland (IEA)
● ‘2nd generation’: woody biomass World transport fuel demand = land area of China (Strahan)
● Not low carbon!
Biofuels inadequate
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Source: BMW
Hydrogen wasteful
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BEV potential massive
Source: SustainAbility
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Two birds, one stone
Source data: IEA WEO 2009
28bn tCO2 2007
CO2 emissions by sector
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Sources: NSCA, DfT
Biomethane could provide 16% UK transport fuel (NSCA, 2006)
Public transport consumes <5%
Large vehicles - biogas
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● Decarbonize electricity supply
● Electrify ground transport and heat
● Biogas for heavy transport
● Demand reduction
● Carbon pricing
How to reach a world beyond oil
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“This book should be compulsory reading in government in this and every other oil importing country.” Richard Hardman CBE, former head of E&P, Amerada Hess
“…a really good and informative read on a topic that affects us all.”Lord Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell
“This important and easily-read book is the first I've seen which presents the vital technical data accurately and intelligibly.”Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief PetroleumEngineer, BP
“A well written exposition of the peak oil case.”Ed Crooks, Energy Editor, FinancialTimes
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Is Woking CHP approach the answer?
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Is Woking CHP approach the answer?
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Impact of Woking approach
Gas use efficiency doubled?
Gas consumption cut by c30%
82% electricity self generated:
71% gas fired CHP 11% renewables
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Drawbacks of Woking CHP approach
- Increased gas dependency
- Gas shocks, price volatility
- Inflexibility: harder to balance renewable generation – Danish example
- CHP displaces renewables, locks in emissions
- Biogas cannot replace natural gas: all UK arable land would produce less than half the necessary biogas – even if demand cut by 30% (Strahan)
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Intermittency is solvable
West Denmark wind vs demand, 25% wind energy (Jan 2008)
West Denmark wind vs demand, 50% wind energy
Source: Danish Technological Institute
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100% renewable supergrid?
Source data: Mainstream Renewables
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Does it have to cost the earth?
Power investment to 2030
European/N Africa supergrid: € 1.5 trn(Czisch) (= €0.047 / kWh)
BAU Europe $2.4 trn (IEA WEO 2009)
BAU global power sector $13.7 trn (IEA WEO 2009)
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“This book should be compulsory reading in government in this and every other oil importing country.” Richard Hardman CBE, former head of E&P, Amerada Hess
“…a really good and informative read on a topic that affects us all.”Lord Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell
“This important and easily-read book is the first I've seen which presents the vital technical data accurately and intelligibly.”Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief PetroleumEngineer, BP
“A well written exposition of the peak oil case.”Ed Crooks, Energy Editor, FinancialTimes
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Aren’t we finding lots more oil?
Giant oil find by BP reopens debate about oil supplies
BG's Brazilian oil find will 'dwarf' BP's strike in the US Gulf Coast
Guardian, 2 September 2009
Guardian, 9 September 2009