PEAK OIL AND ITSALTERNATIVES

Rob States, M.S.3, P.E.

San Francisco Tesla Society

November 13, 2005

Rob States

EDUCATION:Professional Engineer 21,967 (Calif.)

M.S. Univ. of Colorado, Aero. Engr. 1975

M.S., MIT, Mechanical Engr. 1981

Thesis: 3/2 Order Propeller Whirl

M.S., MIT, Information Systems, 1981

Thesis: Themo Electron MIS Systems

Rob States

CAREER:1975 - Cessna Aircraft: Cessna Citation II

1981 - Ingersoll-Rand: Feed Milling Equipment

1990 - Coen Company: Incinerators

1993 - Bepex Corporation

Consulting ClientsHoechst, DuPont, ICI Americas, Zinpro, Babcock Australia, MicroSource, Degussa, PG&E, Georgia Pacific, Proctor & Gamble, Monsanto, Central Michigan University, Zircoa, OMG Mooney, etc.

Rob States

CORE EXPERTISE:MECHANICS: Stress, Dynamics, Test

The diagnosis of mechanical systems.

MODELING: FEA, CFD, Processes

Computer modeling.

MACHINE DESIGN and CONTROL

Custom machine design and control system programming.

M. KING HUBBARD CURVE: 1956PEAK US: 1969, PEAK WORLD: 2000

WORLD OIL SOURCES

ANNUAL DISCOVERIES

US TOTAL ENERGY FLOWQUADRILLION BTU/YEAR

=1E15 BTU/YEAR

US ENERGY SOURCESQuadrillion BTU/Year

NO HELP FROM WASHINGTON

LESS THAN NO HELP FROM WASHINGTON

BRIEF REVIEW OF THE LAWS OF PHYSICS

Divide physics into five domains, each a million - million times larger than the previous.

Start with things the size of people.

BRIEF REVIEW OF THE LAWS OF PHYSICS

Our world is governed by the laws of motion (Newton) and of electricity (Maxwell).

There are no laws for gravity and time - we explain 60% of reality.

BRIEF REVIEW OF THE LAWS OF PHYSICS

At the scale of the solar system, Newton’s laws are inaccurate, and we need the laws of Einstein. Maxwell is still valid.

We know 50% of reality.

BRIEF REVIEW OF THE LAWS OF PHYSICS

At the scale of our galaxy, there is dark matter (5X the visible universe’s matter) and dark energy (5X that).

5% - conventional matter

25% - dark matter

70% - dark energy

95% of the universe is a mystery.

BRIEF REVIEW OF THE LAWS OF PHYSICS

The world of molecules is dominated by the laws of Schrödinger.

Laws are not intuitive.

Laws are very accurate.

BRIEF REVIEW OF THE LAWS OF PHYSICS

The world of nuclear particles is poorly explained:

Yang Mills condensate

General Model of particles

No explanation of nuclear decay.

We understand 10% of reality.

BRIEF REVIEW OF THE LAWS OF PHYSICS

These resonances of the Uranium nucleus are not explained by physics.

LAWS OF PHYSICS SUMMARY

1 - particles (90% unexplained)

2 - molecules - Schrödinger (40% unex.)

3 - Newton and Maxwell (40% unex.)

4 - Einstein and Maxwell (40% unexpl.)

5 - Dark energy & matter (95% unexpl.)

“0” THE STRING THEORY

• Speculative.

• Physicists say its “elegant”.

• Makes millions of wrong predictions.

• Predicts 10 dimensional space.

TIME ANOMOLY

ENERGY PROBLEMS

• RUNNING OUT OF OIL

• NO READY ALTERNATIVE

• GLOBAL WARMING– IS IT REAL? IMPORTANT?

GLOBAL WARMING Thermohaline circulation

POST COLLAPSE TEMPERATURES (DEG C)(Michael Vellinga model - collapse + 30 years)

LAST ICE AGE MAX

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

• OIL DRIVES US INTO THE STONE AGE?

• WE FIND NEW OIL?

• HOW DO WE COPE?

DEMAND ELASTICITY FOR ENERGY

• STARVING MAN = INFINITE

• YOUR DEMAND = ?

GASOLINE OPTIONS

11 MPG VS 50 MPG

1 PASSENGERS 4

11 MPG 200 MPG

ELASTICITY = 18.2

US ENERGY SOURCESQuadrillion BTU/Year

58.5/18.2=

3.2 B-BTU/Yr

HOME ENERGY USE• YOUR BATHROOM VENT FAN

MOTOR = 20%

FAN = 20%

GRID = 33%

TOTAL = 1.3% EFFIC.

SHADED POLE MOTOR

• SHADED POLE MOTOR

84 WATTS, 1 HR/DAY,

80 MILLION UNITS=

.000 074 QUAD-BTU/YR

@8.3¢/KwHr = $2.54/Year

19.7 Years of energy

ELEC = 39.5 Quad/YR

EFFICIENT BATHROOM FAN

• 8 Watts

• 24¢/Year to operate

• $125 cost

• Payback = 312 Years

REFRIGERATORS

• Amana TR-18K, 480 Kw/Year, – $600 cost

– Electricity = $40 / year

• Sun Frost RF-19, 281 Kw/Year– $3000 cost

– Electricity = $23.3 / year

• Payback = 144 Years

SOLAR HOME CONVERT

• TYPICAL HOME: 55 KW-HR/DAY

• SOLAR HOME: 24 KW-HR/DAY

• TYPICAL ELASTICITY = 2.3

• SAVINGS: 9.5 QUADS

INDUSTRIAL ENERGY USE

• 34% OF US ENERGY USE

• 24% OF US PETROLEUM USE

OCEAN CARGO

• WHY DO CONTAINER SHIPS USE FUEL OIL?

• SAILING SHIPS USE MORE LABOR.

• IN MID LATITUDES, SAILING SHIPS CAN COMPETE WITH FUEL POWERED SHIPS.

PAPER MANUFACTURING

• 20 STEAM CYLINDERS DRY PAPER

• 6 FEET TALL, 20 FEET WIDE

DRYING ENERGY USE

• STEAM CYLINDER ENERGY CONSUMPTION

• 1900 BTU/#

AIR DRYING

• IMPINGING AIR DRYING

• ENERGY CONSUMPTION :

• 4000 BTU/#

PULSE AIR DRYING

• ENERGY CONSUMPTION

• 1250 BTU/#

• INDUSTRY SAVINGS

• 0.2 QUADS/YEAR

100 ROB’S AND WE’RE SAVED!

• 100 PROJECTS, .2 QUADS EACH, SAVES

• 20 QUADS

• PETROL IMPORTS DROP BY 72%

ETHANOL

• BRAZIL - 40% ETHANOL– SUGGAR CANE BASED

• US - 3% ETHANOL– WET CORN MILLING BASED– USES MORE OIL THAN IT SAVES

CELLULOSE ETHANOL

• CELLULOSE IS SUGGAR THAT IS LOCKED UP IN PLANTS

• WE NEED A CELLULOSE FRIENDLY ORGANISM

• $100M PER ORGANISM

HOT FUSION CONCEPT

• $5B PROJECT, BUT WITH POLITICAL CONNECTIONS

• DOE BUDGET = $23B/YEAR

LLL = 3 ORGANISMS / YEAR

• $327M / YEAR

• CELLULOSE CONVERSION: – HEMICELLULOSE– LIGNIN– ALPHA CELLULOSE– HEXOSE, PENTOSE

US AVAILABLE CELLULOSE

• 2003: 190 M-TONS BIOMASS

–2.9 QUADS

• POTENTIAL: 1400 M-TONS BIOMASS

–21.4 QUADS

HYDROGEN STORAGE

• PALADIUM SPONGE - EXPENSIVE– WORKS LIKE A DREAM

• LITHIUM DUTERIDE - EXPENSIVE

• AMMONIA – LIQUID FUEL– CORROSIVE– HARD TO FORM AT ROOM TEM.

WIND TURBINES• INTERMITTANT WHEN GRID

CONNECTED

• TOP 20- STATES:

–107 QUADS POTENTIAL

• LIQUID FUEL PRODUCTION - BETTER STORAGE, NO NEED FOR GRID CONNECTION

AMMONIA STORAGE

• HABER PROCESS– 500C, 3700 PSI

• Nitrogenase enzyme – room temperature/pressure

SOLAR• CURRENTLY: 10 YEAR PAYACK

• 15% PRICE IMPROVEMENT / YEAR

• GERMAN SYSTEM

• NANO SOLAR: 3% EFFICIENT

• SILICONE SOLAR: 14% EFFICIENT

• GALLIUM ARSNIDE SOLAR: 34%

• MOST SYSTEMS USE GRID STORAGE– EVENTUALLY UNSTABLE

NEW ENERGY SOURCES THAT HAVE NOT BEEN

COMPLETELY DEVELOPED OR PROVEN

CLATHRATES• 200,000 TRILLION CUBIC FEET

• 182,000 QUADS• MINED FROM OCEAN BOTTOMS

• READY TO CLOBBER US AT THE NEXT ICE AGE

• 10,000 GIGATONS OF CARBON

–431,000 QUADS

CLATHRATE MAP

CLATHRATE MAP 2

TESLA TOWER• PULSE TOWER AT

SCHUMAN FREQUENCY

• IONIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TO GROUND THE IONOSPHERE

IONOSPHERE

• TOWER IS SMALL COMPARED TO CONDUCTION PATH

• KANATA CANADA (30 MILES WEST OF OTTAWA) TOWER OPERATION JUST BEFORE 8/13/03 OUTAGE

• ATLANTIS TO TESLA, JAMES MCCANNEY

CANADIAN TAR SANDS

• HARD TO EXTRACT – JUST DRILLING WON’T WORK

• NOW USE HEAT– CONSUMES TOO MUCH ENERGY

• FUTURE: SOLVENTS

• CANADIAN RESERVES ARE GREATER THAN SAUDI RESERVES

ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES THAT PROBABLY WORK,

BUT ARE NOT BEING INVESTIGATED BY THE

MAIN STREAM

DAVID HAMIL CONTACT

HAMIL MOTOR

BUILD IN 45 GALLON STEEL DRUM

BLEW UP DAVID’S GARAGE

NON-MAXWELLIAN

• CONES NUTATE

• TV SIGNAL STATIC

• NO POWER EXTRACTION CIRCUIT

TYPICAL CONSTRUCTION

• TOP HEAVY CONES, INHERINTLY UNSTABLE

BOB LAZAR

• AREA 51 - 1989

• NO MIT/CAL-TECH RECORDS

• OK LOS ALAMOS

PARTICLE PHYSICS

ELEMENT 115

• PREDICTED BY LAZAR IN 1991, DISCOVERED IN GERMANY IN 1996

ANTI-MATER REACTOR

• SAME MOTOR IN A-51 AND ROSWELL

• OCCUPANTS SIT NEXT TO 2GW REACTOR - NO GAMMA RAYS

ASSEMBLE HALF SCALE MODEL

• PARTICLE TUBE DOESN’T AIM AT 115 TARGET

ASSEMBLE REACTOR

• INSERT 115 TARGET

ASSEMBLE REACTOR

• CAP TOPS 115 TARGET

ASSEMBLE REACTOR

• ADD THE DOME, AND THE REAL REACTOR STARTS TO OPERATE

REACTOR FEATURES

• NO HEAT GENERATED

• GASEOUS TARGET GENERATES CURRENT

• TUNED CAVITY KEEPS ANTI-PROTON FROM HITTING WALLS

• GRAVITY WAVES FLOW LIKE MICROWAVES

ORGONE ACCUMULATOR• SIMPLE

CONSTRUCTION

• .3 DEG C TEMP. DIFFERENTIAL

• MINE DIDN’T WORK

• LOW ENERGY DENSITY

COLD FUSION, OR LOW ENERGY NUCLEAR REACTIONS

• PONDS AND FLEISCHMAN ANNOUNCE 3-23-98

• UNIVERITY OF UTAH POLITICS

• DOE REPLICATIONS AT MIT, STANFORD, PRINCETON

• STANFORD CELL EXPLODES 1-2-92, KILLING Andy Riley

• EUGENE MALLOV NOW DEAD

COLD FUSION CELL

• ELECTRODE WAS PALADIUM

• SAME AS HYDROGEN FUEL STORAGE

• WORKS HALF THE TIME

• NEEDS IMPURITIES

COLD FUSION SUMMARY

• 3000 PUBLISHED PAPERS

• ABOUT 300 HIGH QUALITY PAPERS

• PALLO AND ALEXANDRIA COREA DESIGN ALWAYS WORKS (BLACK LIGHT POWER, CANADA)

• PROFESSOR EMERITUS JOHN DASH DESIGN ALWAYS WORKS

• 1 GALLON OF WATER EQUALS 300 GALLONS OF GASOLINE (DEUTERIUM REACTION)

DAVID ADAIR

• FATHER BUILT NASCAR ENGINES

• DAVID USES MACHINE SHOP FOR ROCKETS

ADAIR GETS NOTICED

ADAIR’S FUSION MOTOR

LAWRENCE LIVERMORE FUSION MOTOR

ADAIR VISITS A-51

• ADAIR VISITS MIDDLE HANGAR IN ROW OF THREE

ADAIR SEES BIG ENGINE

FRONT VIEW

SIDE VIEW

CORE BREACH

MOTOR EXTERIOR IS SENTIENT

ADAIR MOTOR SUMMARY

• CAN A 16 YEAR OLD BOY REALLY BEAT LAWRENCE LIVERMORE LABS?

• ADAIR CALLS “TRITIUM” “TRIANIUM”

• ADAIR’S PHYSICS CHECK OUT

• DOES AREA 51 HAVE A “BASEMENT”?

CROP CIRCLES• MYSTERIOUS ORIGIN CIRCLES

DRAIN BATTERIES: FLASH LIGHTS, CAMCORDERS

• HUMAN MADE CIRCLES SOMETIMES INHERIT THESE SYMPTOMS

• CIRCLES HAVE THEIR OWN MAGNETIC FIELD

• NO ACTIVE STUDIES FROM DOE OR MAINSTREAM SCIENCE

ZERO POINT

• PLENTY OF HYPE

• DETECTED USING THE CASIMIR EFFECT

OTHER SUPRESSED TECHNOLOGIES

• THE PAPP ENGINE

• NON SECOND LAW THEMONIC GENERATORS