Peacock Bull Bear

20
Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. August 8, 2012 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box

Transcript of Peacock Bull Bear

Page 1: Peacock Bull Bear

Stock Market Indicators:Fundamental, Sentiment,

& Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.

August 8, 2012

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Debbie Johnson480-664-1333

[email protected]

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com

blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Page 2: Peacock Bull Bear

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator 1-2Global Growth Barometer 3Economic Surprise Index 4Investors Intelligence Sentiment 5Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 6Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 7Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 8AAII Sentiment 9Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence 10S&P 500 Put Call Ratio 11Volatility 12Volume 13S&P 500 Moving Averages 14S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma 15S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 16S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50017

Page 3: Peacock Bull Bear

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201340

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

8/8

7/28

S&P 500 INDEX vs. FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR

S&P 500 Index

Fundamental StockMarket Indicator*

* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 1.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201340

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

7/28

7/28

BOOM BUST BAROMETER vs. CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

US Boom Bust Barometer*

Consumer Comfort Index(index plus 100)

* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.

yardeni.com

Figure 2.

- Fundamental Stock Market Indicator -

Page 1 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 4: Peacock Bull Bear

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013300

400

500

600

700

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

8/8

8/8

S&P 500 INDEX vs. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES

S&P 500 Index

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Index

Source: Thomson Financial I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 3.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

700

600

500

400

300

200

7/28

S&P 500 INDEX vs. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,inverted scale)

S&P 500 Index

Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.

- Fundamental Stock Market Indicator -

Page 2 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 5: Peacock Bull Bear

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

8/8

8/8

S&P 500 vs. YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis)

YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1274.7)

S&P 500 Index (1402.2)

* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 5.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

8/8

US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

Brent Crude Oil Price(dollars per barrel)

S&P 500 Index

Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.

- Global Growth Barometer -

Page 3 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 6: Peacock Bull Bear

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-170-160-150-140-130-120-110-100-90-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-100102030405060708090100110120130

-625

-525

-425

-325

-225

-125

-25

75

175

275

375

475

8/8

8/8

S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)

Economic Surprise Index

S&P 500 minus its200 day-moving average

yardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.

Figure 7.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

8/8

S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)

Economic Surprise Index

S&P 500 Forward P/E*

yardeni.com

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Citigroup.* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.

Figure 8.

- Economic Surprise Index -

Page 4 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 7: Peacock Bull Bear

Figure 9.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Ratio Jul 31 1.42 Aug 7 1.71

8/7

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS vs. BEARS

Bull/Bear Ratio

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201310

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Bulls Bears Jul 24 40.4 26.6 Jul 31 39.4 27.7 Aug 7 43.6 25.5

8/7

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS vs BEARS

Bulls

Bears

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

8/7

Correction Camp

yardeni.com

Source: Investors Intelligence.

- Investors Intelligence Sentiment -

Page 5 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 8: Peacock Bull Bear

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATO OF3.0 OR MORE

8/8

yardeni.com

Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 10.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 141000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATO OF3.0 OR MORE 8/8

yardeni.com

Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Wall Street Journal Investors and Intelligence.

Figure 11.

- Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 -

Page 6 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 9: Peacock Bull Bear

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS

8/8

yardeni.com

Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 12.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 141000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS 8/8

yardeni.com

Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 13.

- Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 -

Page 7 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 10: Peacock Bull Bear

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-40

-20

0

20

40

-40

-20

0

20

40

S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving AverageDivided by S&P 500

(percent)

S&P 500 INDEXLESS 200-DMA vs.

BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE

8/8

Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 14.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-40

-20

0

20

40

-40

-20

0

20

40

S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving AverageDivided by S&P 500

(percent)

S&P 500 INDEXLESS 200-DMA vs.

BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS

8/8

Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 15.

- Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 -

Page 8 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 11: Peacock Bull Bear

Figure 16.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

25

50

75

100

0

25

50

75

100

8/1

AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS

AAII Bull Ratio*

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

8/1

AAII Bull/Bear Ratio

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Latest Readings Bulls Bears Jul 25 28.1 43.1 Aug 1 30.5 34.9

8/1

Bulls

Bears

* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

yardeni.com

- AAII Sentiment -

Page 9 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 12: Peacock Bull Bear

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201320

40

60

80

100

120

140

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

7/31

BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)

Consumer ConfidenceExpectations Index

yardeni.com

Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.

Figure 17.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

7/31

BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)

Consumer Comfort Index

yardeni.com

Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg.

Figure 18.

- Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence -

Page 10 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 13: Peacock Bull Bear

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

8/3

S&P 500 PUT/CALL(weekly data)

Average = 1.616(1996-2010)

Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

8/3

S&P 500 PUT/CALL(4-week ma)

Average = 1.624(1996-2010)

Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.

- S&P 500 Put Call Ratio -

Page 11 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 14: Peacock Bull Bear

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

8/8

VIX: S&P 500

Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.

yarden

i.com

Figure 21.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

8/8

VIX: NASDAQ 100

Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.

yarden

i.com

Figure 22.

- Volatility -

Page 12 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 15: Peacock Bull Bear

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131200

3200

5200

7200

9200

11200

1200

3200

5200

7200

9200

11200

8/3

NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGEWEEKLY VOLUME(million shares, 4-week moving average)

Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.

yarden

i.com

Figure 23.

- Volume -

Page 13 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 16: Peacock Bull Bear

I II III IV I II III IV I II III2010 2011 2012

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

8/6

S&P 500 INDEX*

Latest price: 1394.2350-dma: 1344.08200-dma: 1325.12

* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s.

(+) 50-dma is rising. Latest daily change is +0.11%(+) 200-dma is rising. Latest daily change is +0.05%(+) Latest price is 3.7% above the 50-dma.(+) Latest price is 5.2% above the 200-dma.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.

72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

8/3

S&P 500 INDEX TECHNICALSTHE DEATH CROSS & THE GOLDEN CROSS50-dma relative to 200-dma (%)

Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

- S&P 500 Moving Averages -

Page 14 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 17: Peacock Bull Bear

Figure 26.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100

150

200

250

300350400

8/8CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14125

175

225

275

325375425

8/8

INDUSTRIALS

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14150

200

250

300

350

4008/8CONSUMER STAPLES

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14150

400

650

90011501400

8/8

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14150

250

350

450

550650750

8/8ENERGY

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100

150

200

250

300

8/8

MATERIALS

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1475

175

275

375475575

8/8

FINANCIALS

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1475

175

275

375

475

8/8

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14225

275

325

375

425

475525

8/8HEALTH CARE

Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.200-day moving average

* Ratio scale.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1475

125

175

225

275

8/8

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

- S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma -

Page 15 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 18: Peacock Bull Bear

Figure 27.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

8/8

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY MINUS200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

8/8

INDUSTRIALS

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

8/8

CONSUMER STAPLES

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-400

-200

0

200

400

8/8

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

8/8

ENERGY

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

8/8

MATERIALS

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

8/8

FINANCIALS

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-100

-50

0

50

100

8/8

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

8/8

HEALTH CARE

Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-100

-50

0

50

100

8/8

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

- S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma -

Page 16 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 19: Peacock Bull Bear

Figure 28.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.16

.18

.20

.22

.24

.26

.28

8/8

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.16

.18

.20

.22

.24

.26

8/8

INDUSTRIALS

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

8/8CONSUMER STAPLES

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.2

.4

.6

.8

8/8

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

8/8

ENERGY

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

8/8

MATERIALS

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.1

.2

.3

.4

8/8

FINANCIALS

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

8/8

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

8/8

HEALTH CARE

Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.08

.10

.12

.14

.16

.18

.20

8/8

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

- S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 500 -

Page 17 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 20: Peacock Bull Bear

Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2012. All rights reserved. The informationcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is notnecessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, orcorrectness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the otherinformation provided are subject to change without notice. This report and the othersposted on www.yardeni.com are issued without regard to the specific investmentobjectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not tobe construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialinstruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Companyfundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construedas a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts,estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy,sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange tradedfunds, or any similar instruments.

The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research,Inc. product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc.and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part ofwww.yardeni.com may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned,reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any personor entity, without the explicit written consent of Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorizedreproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willfulinfringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights,including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reservesall rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation theright to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof,through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known orhereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, topursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies forthe violation of its rights.

The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virustransmitted by this company’s emails or website. Additional information available onrequest.