Defending the Future: Gender, Conflict and Environmental Peace
Peace: the Future
description
Transcript of Peace: the Future
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Peace: the Future
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What is Peace?
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1. The absence of war
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The world has never been so peaceful
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Thisis not
thepast
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Thisis
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Early human societies:
~25%
20th century: <4%
recent decades: <2%
What percentage of people
lose their lives due to war?
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History’s trend has been a smaller and smaller
percentage of the population engaged in war.
And a smaller percentage of deathsfor both soldiers and civilians.
This will continue
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4
types of conflict
*Jonathan Schell
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Total War
1
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Total War
WWI
WWII
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
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The early 20th century was humanity’s
experiment in gazing as closely as possible
to the brink of destruction,
and then pulling back.
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People’s War
2
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Total War
WWI
WWII
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
People’sWarAmerican
Revolution
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Terrorism
3
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Total War
WWI
WWII
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
People’sWarAmerican
Revolution
Terrorism
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Terrorism,
by definition,is never as bad as it
seems.
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It is a tactic used by non-state actors
too weak to wage Total War or People’s War
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Thus, its rise can be seen as a (comparatively) positive
trend:
it signals a decline in the more violent types of
conflict.
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Nonviolence
4
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Nonviolence
=
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Satyāgraha
( “ Truth-force ” )
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Violence sometimes achieves short-term objectives, but
always leaves negative long-term consequences.
Short-term Long-term
Violence Sometimes works Never works
Nonviolence
Sometimes works Always works
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Carnation revolution – PortugalPeople Power revolution – Philippines
Velvet revolution – CzechBulldozer revolution – Serbia
Rose revolution – GeorgiaOrange revolution – Ukraine
Purple revolution – IraqGreen revolution – Iran
Tulip revolution – KyrgyzstanCedar revolution – Lebanon
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Total War
WWI
WWII
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
People’sWarAmerican
Revolution
Terrorism
Nonviolence
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So, why the shift?
Total WarPeople’s
WarTerrorism
Nonviolence
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End of colonialism
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End of the Cold War
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Maps & borders codified
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State failure hurts everyone
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Global economic ties
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Biggest reason:
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The increase in the value of each
human life.
The realization that all are equal.
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What is Peace?
Again,
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1. The absence of war
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2. Basic needs met.
Percentage of world’s population living in extreme
poverty
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3. Wealth/abundance
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4. HealthInfant mortality rate
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5. Equality
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6. Freedom for all /equality of opportunity
/ democracy / choice
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7. Education /creative fulfillment
for all
World literacy rate today: 83%
1970: 63%
About 175,000 new blogs are created each day
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8. Universal brotherhood
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9. Utopia.Everything is
perfect!
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This is impossibl
e
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Peace is
an ever-recedinggoal
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This is a good thing. It means our standards
keep improving!
"People who live in a Golden Age usually go around complaining how yellow everything looks."
- poet Randall Jarrell
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We are destined for peace.
But it’s not a single endpoint.
By the standards of history, many parts of the
world are already at peace.
So, the future of peace?
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JesseRichards
www.
secretpeace.com