Climate Change and Agriculture Trade: Risks and...
Transcript of Climate Change and Agriculture Trade: Risks and...
Climate Change and Agriculture Trade: Risks and Responses
- Future Needs in SPS Technical Cooperation -
Richard A. SikoraChairman SP-IPM, CGIAR
Professor, University of Bonn Germany
1. Crop Germplasm Conservation, Enhancement, and Use
2. Diets, Agriculture, Nutrition, and Health
3. Institutional Innovations, ICTs, and Markets
4. Climate Change and Agriculture
5. Agricultural Systems for the Poor and Vulnerable
6. Water, Soils, and Ecosystems
7. Forests and Biomass
The Building Blocks of the Strategy and Results Framework are a Set of Seven Interlinked MEGA Programs
and Two Platforms- Gender and Capacity Strengthening -
World population growth, reduced crop land, water scarcity and climate change
will greatly influence how we grow foodand
Pests and disease will continue to limit yield therefore
IPM in international development is important to food security and trade
Fishbowls – “Gettyi amges”
CGIAR Systemwide Program on IPM
• What SP-IPM does:
• Develop knowledge and technologies for innovative crop protection
• Promote strategies to increase yield of safe and affordable food
• Stress 4 new thrusts to better respond to new global challenges:
1. Adapt IPM to climate change2. Improve food and feed security and safety3. Increase agro-ecosystem resilience4. Promote capacity building in IPM
Climate change impactsIncreased hungerSpread of diseaseChanges in water availabilityInfrastructure damageChange in forest coverLoss of biodiversitySea level rise
Padgham, 2007
Maize yield variability and ENSO activity In Zimbabwe. Source: Cane et al., 1994
Impacts will not be evenly distributed and this make IPM even more complex
Climate change threats to food security and trade
• increase in population and life cycles of existing pests• range expansion, higher pest pressure in existing range• invasion by introduced or migrated alien species • reduction of crops tolerance and resistance • increase in mycotoxin contamination • loss of wild crop races needed for resistance breeding • decrease in soil biodiversity and natural biocontrol• reduction of beneficial insects for pest and weed control• reduction in pesticide effectiveness due to selection
Total food consumption 2003 - 2050 ca. + 100 % increase
Population growthFood consumption/person, Total
consumption (134 countries)
%
95 Total Consumption(total cereals)
Population dynamics
Consumption/person
75
55
35
15
-5
-25
1993 2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
1
2
3
4
5
6EU
-25
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Chin
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Eur
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East
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Tonn
es/h
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reWheat yields 2008 and needed by 2020
UN/FAO production goal for wheat 4 tons/ha by 2020
Average by 2020 to produce 760 mlln t
World average 2008
Yield losses caused by pests, diseases and weeds
(Oerke et al., 1994)
Crop
Rice 15.1 20.7 15.6 51.4
Wheat 12.4 9.3 12.3 34.0
Barley 10.1 8.8 10.6 29.4
Maize 10.8 14.5 13.1 38.3
Potato 16.3 16.1 8.9 41.3
Soya 9.0 10.4 13.0 32.4
Cotton 10.5 15.4 11.8 37.7
Coffee 14.9 14.9 10.3 40.0
Yield losses (%)
Diseases
Pests Weeds Total
Mean 12.4 13.8 12.0 38.1
346.5 M t
40.6 M t22.1 M t
92.5 M t
31.4 M t
25.4 M t
37.8 M t
29.3 M t 30.0 M t
180.6 M t
41.5 M t
0.780
0,610
0.632
0.424
0.583
0.447
0.523
0.691
0.560
0.6910.805
0.822
0.349
0,349
0.312
0.248
0.255
0.255
0.237
0.286
0.247
0.3000.354
0.417
Effect of Pests and Crop Protection on Maize Production, 2002-04- the contribution of targeted plant protection to crop security -
Production potential940.3 x 106 t (= 100%)
Production without control296.7 x 106 t (= 31.6%)
Production with control648.5 x 106 t (= 69.0%)
Loss potential 68.4% Actual losses 31.0%
EC Oerke, unpublished
SP-IPM Thrust I:Adapt IPM to climate change
1. increase in population and life cycles of existing pests
2. range expansion
3. higher pest pressure in existing range
4. invasion by introduced or migrated alien species
5. need for suitable IPM approaches
Potato Tuber MothPhthorimaea operculella (PTM)
• Invasive species; reported from more than 90 countries• Adapted to wide range of different climates and agroecologies• Yield losses due to leaf and tuber infestation at harvest• Storage pest in tropical and subtropical countries
The main world potato production areas and range expansion = PTM occurrences
•Phthorimaea operculella•Symmetrischema tangolias
•Tecia solanivora
Table 1. Estimated annual costs associated with some non-indigenous species introduction in the USA (x millions of dollars). Mod. after Pimentel, D. et al, (1999).
___________________________________________________________________________________Non-Indigenous Losses and Control
Category Species Damages costs Total_PLANTS 25,000
Purple loosestrife --- --- $45Aquatic weeds $10 $100 110Crop weeds 24,000 3,000 27,000Weeds in pastures 1,000 5,000 6,000
ARTHROPODS 4,500Imported fire ant 600 400 1,000Formosan termite 1,000 NA 1,000Green crab 44 NA 44Gypsy moth NA 11 11Crop pests 13,000 500 13,500Forest pests 2,100 NA 2,100
MICROBES 20,000 Crop plant pathogens 21,000 500 21,500Forest plant pathogens 2,100 NA 2,100Dutch elm disease NA 100 100
____________________________________________________________________________________
Climate change scenarios for the potato tuber moth Phthorimaea operculella
A: Generation index (generations/year) under present temperature conditions(only potato production areas are shown).
Sporleder et al. (2008)
B: Generation index change by 2050 due to increased temperature predicted by using the atmospheric general circulation model by Govindasamy et al. (2003). (only potato production areas are shown).
Sporleder et al. (2007)
Climate change scenarios for the potato tuber moth Phthorimaea operculella
1-88-1212-1618-19
SP-IPM’s answer to expected climate change challenges
• Development of methodologies to identify regions and cropping systems vulnerable to increased pest damage
• Improve NARS capacity to identify dangerous invasive pest and disease organisms
• Design IPM strategies to enhance resilience of vulnerable agro-ecosystems
• Development of strategies for adapting IPM to pests under different climatic conditions
• Capacity building to decrease contaminants
Contaminants in the food chain
• Pests and Diseases • Pesticides• Aflatoxins and Mycotoxins• Microbial pathogens
Depending on what you eat or drink determines their importance
Depending on where you live determines what you eat or drink
Depending on what you can afford determines your pollution intake
Depending on IPM used the level of contamination affects you and trade
The haves and the have-nots !
- An increase in the use of pesticides
- More biotechnology
- Proper use is acceptable
- Improper use will impact users, consumers & trade
SP-IPM Thrust II:Improve food and feed security and safety
Pesticide Misuse Alleys - a Trade Barrierzones of improper & irrational use of pesticides
SP-IPM SolutionsCapacity building in integrated crop management
1. Training of policy makers and IPM specialists
2. Courses on new IPM strategies
3. Upgrading of extension techniques
4. Public-Private partnerships
SP-IPM Thrust II continued:Improve food and feed security and safety
Climate change will increase presence mycotoxins in food thereby negatively impacting health and trade
H
Mycotoxin Contamination: A Perennial Concern in all Climates
Economics Health Trade Storage Food Security Child DevelopmentEconomics Health Trade Storage Food Security Child Development
Aflatoxin-belt
35°N
35°S
Zone with PerennialContamination Risk
Aflatoxin Belt Impacts Food & Feed Safety
• Health risks associated with food derive from mycotoxins (esp. from Aspergillus, Fusarium, Penicillium spp.)
• Approx. 4.5 billion people in the developing world are exposed daily to mycotoxins, esp. aflatoxins through consumption of staple food
• Contaminants in food limit farmers’ ability to export their crops
• Mycotoxins in feeds represent high risk to growth of livestock
Aflatoxin and Human Health
Death Impairs growth and development of childrenSuppress immune systemAflatoxin enhances HBV5-60 times higher cancer riskImpedes uptake and utilization of micronutrientsAssociated with Kwashiorkor in children
Aflatoxin Contamination in W. Africa
Maize: 4000 – BeninPeanut: 216 – GhanaSorghum: 80 – GhanaMillet: 200 – NigeriaTiger nuts: 120 –Nigeria
Primary products• Peanut paste: 3278 – Ghana• Peanut sauce: 943 – Ghana• Leaf sauce: 775 – Gambia• Maize dough: 313 – Ghana• Kenkey: 524 – Ghana• Cashew paste: 366 – Ghana• Peanut oil: 500 – Nigeria• Yam flour: 7600 – Nigeria• Local beer: 135 - Nigeria
Food products
CODEX standard: 20 ppb; EU: 2 ppb
Trade Losses due to Mycotoxins• CODEX standard: 20 ppb; EU: 2 ppb Aflatoxins• African exports to EU (51%) & US (22%)• World Bank estimate of lost trade
– 2001 study: US$670 million – 2005 study: ~ several hundred 1000s
• Some countries active to meet standards by putting in place relevant institutions
• Best quality exported; poorer quality consumed domestically.
Categories of operators in value chains and their relationsFinal Con-sumers
SpecificInputproviders
Farmers,(primaryproducers)
Packers,Agro-industry
Traders
Basic sequence of functions in an agribusiness value chain
Trade
StoreTransportDistribute
Con-sumption
Retail SalesConsume
SpecificInputs
Provideright variety
Production
Grow, harvest
Conditioning Processing
GradeWashPack
Pollutants in the Food and Value Chains – and the PoorMultiple factors affecting trade
1
GTZ – Dr. A. Schöning, Modified
Pest – Diseases – Pesticides – Mycotoxins – Trade Barriers
• Genetic enhancement: Taking advantage of biotechnology in enhancing host resistance (conventional, transgenics and wide hybrids); enhancing screening methods (CIMMYT)
• Competitive exclusion: reduction of aflatoxin producing strains through soil inoculation with non-toxigenic strains of A. flavusindigenous to Africa (IITA)
• Detection: Development and adoption of low-cost, high through-put ELISA detection tools (ICRISAT)
• Technology transfer: For wider adoption of integrated strategies and aflatoxin diagnostic tools, storage, harvesting time, rotations
• Capacity building: Policy makers and extension leaders
SP-IPM SolutionsPlant Health Managament Solutions
Globalgap, Eurogap, KenyagapWe must have the conviction that there are
extraordinary possibilities in ordinary farmers
There is a solution
Thank you for listening !
Richard A. SikoraChairman SP-IPM, CGIAR