Pcbe markstein may 6, 2014
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Philadelphia Council for Business Economics May 7, 2014
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Presentation charts on the construction outlook for Philadelphia Council for Business Economics meeting
Transcript of Pcbe markstein may 6, 2014
Philadelphia Council for Business
Economics
May 7, 2014
Current Construction Trends
Presented by: Bernard M. Markstein
Reed U.S. Chief Economist
About Reed Construction Data
Reed Construction Data is a leading construction
information provider.
We deliver targeted and timely project leads, market intelligence,
marketing solutions and RSMeans cost data to construction
professionals throughout the US and Canada.
Maximize Productivity
Increase Profits
Drive Growth
Our products and services simplify decision-making and help
organizations:
How we do it: our channels
Our coverage and penetration
Private projects
22% increase year over year
80% acquisition rate
Plans and specs
TOTAL ACTIVE PROJECTS: 15.2% increase over 4 years
130,000 public and private
Non-residential construction information
industry sources
22.9% increase over four years
Plans and specs
Every state and every area in
USA covered including
Alaska and Hawaii
More coverage in
Canadathan anyone in the
construction industry
Our coverage and penetration
7
The U.S. Economy
8
Economic growth – improving, but should be better
Employment growing, but should be faster
Inflation remains moderate, too low?
Washington less of an obstacle, but will wrangling
break out again and hinder basic business?
Federal Reserve has started to taper, when do
interest rates rise?
Overview of the economy
9
Risks to the economy
Spike in interest rates due to Fed unwinding its
Quantitative Easing program too fast
Sharp cuts to federal government spending in the
near term
European government debt default
The euro
Energy (oil) prices
Russia?
10
Construction Outlook
11
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
353-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
Reed Total Starts (3-Mo MA YoY)
Source: Reed Construction Data
Shaded area represents recession
Overview of construction
12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction
$ Billions
History
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
Forecast
Forecast: Construction to improve Construction Spending and its Components
Overview of construction
13
47%
32%
20%
2002
Residential
Nonresidential Building
Heavy Construction
56% 27%
17%
2005
Residential
Nonresidential Building
Heavy Construction
2002 Total - $848 Billion 2005 Total - $1,104 Billion
Construction Spending Components
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Overview of construction
14
56% 27%
17%
2005
Residential
Nonresidential Building
Heavy Construction
31%
36%
33%
2010
Residential
Nonresidential Building
Heavy Construction
2005 Total - $1,104 Billion 2010 Total - $805 Billion
Construction Spending Components
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Overview of construction
15
38%
33%
29%
2013
Residential
Nonresidential Building
Heavy Construction
2005 Total - $1,104 Billion 2013 Total - $900 Billion
Construction Spending Components
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Overview of construction
56% 27%
17%
2005
Residential
Nonresidential Building
Heavy Construction
16
2002 Total - $848 Billion 2013 Total - $900 Billion
Construction Spending Components
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Overview of construction
38%
33%
29%
2013
Residential
Nonresidential Building
Heavy Construction
47%
32%
20%
2002
Residential
Nonresidential Building
Heavy Construction
17
Residential construction is
recovering, but from a low level
Single-family housing market is on the mend, but much
further to go before it is back to normal
Multifamily market has largely recovered, but still some
room for growth
Overview of housing
18
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Thousands of Units, SAAR
Nation’s long-run (trend)
need for the next decade
Low Estimate
(1.4 million starts per year)
Nation’s long-run (trend)
need for the next decade
High Estimate
(1.8 million starts per year)
Total Housing Starts (3-Month Moving Average)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Shaded areas represent recession
Overview of housing
19
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Thousands of Units, SAAR
Nation’s long-run (trend)
need for the next decade
Low Estimate
(1.15 million starts per year)
Nation’s long-run (trend)
need for the next decade
High Estimate
(1.45 million starts per year)
Single-Family Housing Starts (3-Month Moving Average)
Overview of housing
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Shaded areas represent recession
20
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Thousands of Units, SAAR
Nation’s long-run (trend)
need for the next decade
Low Estimate
(250,000 starts per year)
Nation’s long-run (trend)
need for the next decade
High Estimate
(350,000 starts per year)
Multifamily Housing Starts (3-Month Moving Average)
Overview of housing
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Shaded areas represent recession
21
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Thousands of Units, SAAR
Nation’s long-run (trend)
need for the next decade
High Estimate
(350,000 starts per year)
Nation’s long-run (trend)
need for the next decade
Low Estimate
(250,000 starts per year)
Multifamily Housing Starts (3-Month Moving Average)
Overview of housing
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Shaded areas represent recession
22
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
603-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
Reed Residential Starts (3-Mo MA YoY)
Overview of housing
Source: Reed Construction Data
Shaded area represents recession
23
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Improvements Single-family Multifamily
$ Billions
Residential Spending Components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
History Forecast
Overview of housing
24
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Single-Family Multifamily Improvements
$ Billions
2006 to 2013 ’14 ’15
Residential Construction Spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
Overview of housing
25
Issues Facing
Housing
26
Headwinds for housing
Builders’ inventory of land for development and
construction is low prices for land rising
Shortages of skilled labor in some markets
Lending standards easing, but still rigorous by
historical standards
Debt burden by young adults—student debt
Fear of homeownership?
27
Would you lend to a person
carrying a large amount of
student debt?
Would you want to borrow
more money if you were
such a person?
The debt burden headwind
28
Headwinds for housing
29
Headwinds for housing
30
Are views about
homeownership
changing ?
31
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
2006
2008
2010
2012
Millions
Head of Household by Age Cohort in 2012
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)
Demographics and housing
32
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Homeownership Rate Percent
Lowest rate:
Q4 1985
63.6%
Peak rate:
Q2 2004
69.4%
65.0%
Demographics and housing
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Shaded areas represent recession
33
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Rental Rate Percent
Highest rate:
Q4 1985
36.4%
Lowest rate:
Q2 2004
30.6%
35.0%
Demographics and housing
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Shaded areas represent recession
34
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Rental Vacancy Rate (SA) Percent
Peak rate:
Q3 2009
10.9%
8.3%
Demographics and housing
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Shaded areas represent recession
35
Nonresidential
Building
Construction
36
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
303-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
Reed Nonresidential Starts (3-Mo MA YoY)
Nonresidential building construction
Source: Reed Construction Data
Shaded area represents recession
37
275 269 283
302
340
404
438
376
290 284
298 299 312
338
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
$ Billions
History
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
Forecast
Nonresidential Construction Spending
38
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Hotel/Lodging Office Commercial
$ Billions
2006 to 2013 ’14 ’15
Nonresidential Construction Spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Manufacturing Healthcare Education
$ Billions
2006 to 2013 ’14 ’15
Nonresidential Construction Spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
40
Heavy engineering
41
Reed Heavy Engineering Starts (3-Mo MA YoY)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
603-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
Source: Reed Construction Data
Shaded area represents recession
42
171 171 169
185
208
248
272 274 265
251
272 263
276
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
$ Billions
History
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
Forecast
Heavy Engineering Construction Spending
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Transportation Communication Power
$ Billions
2006 to 2013 ’14 ’15
Heavy Engineering Construction Spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Highway Water and Sewer Conservation
$ Billions
2006 to 2013 ’14 ’15
Heavy Engineering Construction Spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
45
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web www.reedconstructiondata.com
Contact
46
Contact Information and Links
Bernard M. Markstein
Office: 301-588-5190
Mobile: 404-952-3381
U.S. Forecast and Commentary: http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/market-
intelligence/articles/
Blog: http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/market-
intelligence/bernie-markstein/
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