PC Construction and Maintenance

Week 12

Future Trends in Computer Hardware

Mice and Keyboards

• USB will probably replace PS/2 connectors as the standard interface for mice and keyboards

• There was once speculation of keyboards changing from QWERTY to an alphabetical layout, but this is unlikely to happen now, Although such keyboards are for sale

• In the future, other input devices may well replace mice and keyboards altogether

• Voice activated input has been around for a few years now, but is inappropriate for some environments

Case design

• ATX will probably be the most common type of case over the next few years

• AT last a good few years, but was found to be inadequate and had several reasons to be replaced with

• There seem to be no immediate reasons to replace the ATX specification

Processors: The near future

• AMD and Intel look set to remain the two biggest players over the next couple of years

• Both have invested heavily in fabrication plants for next generation processors

• The move to 64-bit, further reductions in feature sizes and increase in number of transistors will occur in the following years

AMD roadmap

• Integrated 32-bit/64-bit solution, clawhammer (desktop) and sledgehammer (server)

• These chips are built on similar architecture to 32-bit AMD chips, but have been extended to 64-bit

• In the next couple of years, these chips may well be the fastest available for running the existing 32-bit software base

• First generations will be fabricated with a feature size of 1.8 microns, with later chips at 1.3 microns

Intel Roadmap

• Intel’s 64-bit solution is codenamed the Itanium

• This chip was designed 64-bit from scratch, and is likely to be come the most powerful chip for running future 64-bit applications

• The chip will run all existing 32-bit software also, but via an emulation mode

CPUs – Future Specifications

Year Projected feature size (microns)

2000 1.8

2002 1.3

2005 1.0

2014 0.35

Intel and RAMBUS

• The decision of Intel to tie it’s processors and chipsets to a single memory manufacturer has been controversial

• It has resulted in great gains for AMD in the processor market

• AMD processors can use the cheaper SDRAM• AMD will probably gain a stronger foothold in the

memory market until Intel changes its policy

The memory question

• Intel will start supporting the cheaper SDRAM around end 2002/early 2003, but apparently only at 200MHz

• In the meantime, AMD systems will be Migrating from PC133 SDRAM to 266 DDR

• RAMBUS already supports far higher speeds, but is very expensive

• Overall, memory bandwidth will increase

Memory chips – Future Specifications

Chipset – Future directions

• Like the CPU, feature size of chipset will decrease, allowing for further integration

• Currently, Symmetric Multi-Processing (SMP) only supported with Intel processors

• New AMD chipset very shortly to be released 760MP will bring SMP support to the Athlon

Trends in Motherboard Design

• Number of layers on motherboards is set to increase

• Each layer is electrically insulated from each layer above and below it

• This is needed for increased bus widths, increased functionality

• 5-layer boards will be more common, with possibly 6-layer boards hitting the market

• Unfortunately, more layers=more cost

The processing subsystem – looking further ahead

• All components of the processing subsystem will be affected by constant decreases in feature size

• Using conventional silicon die technology, we can predict Moores Law is safe for around another 15 years

• There is a theoretical limit of feature size, due to the uncertainties of Quantum Physics

• It is believed that this limit will be reached in around 2015

• The race is already on to find ways to circumvent this problem

Current technology - Alternatives

• Work has already been done on making chips that have their transistors stand end-on rather than flat on the sillicon wafer.

• This allows 100 times more than normal transistors to be squeezed onto the wafer

• Increasing the number of layers in a device is an option, but overheating remains a serious problem

Current Technology Alternatives Optical Technology

• There have been major advances in optical technology

• Optical technology doesn’t suffer from the same theoretical limitations as silicon-based hardware

• Optical technology is already used widely in high-end routers and switches

• An optical based CPU of any practical value is still a long way off

Trends in current hard-disktechnology

• Expect a continuation of the increase in capacity and speed as witnessed in the last decade for at least the next few years

• Hard drives are running faster, and hotter – some new high-performance drives need a separate cooling system

• IDE is gaining a lot of ground on SCSI, very much in the desktop environment, as it is more widely used now

Storage in the Future

• Conventional hard disks are far from ideal – they are too slow, but getting gradually faster

• Capacity is continually increasing, by bringing the heads closer to the platter, and using weaker signals

• Hard drives rely on precise moving parts, so are occasionally prone to failure

Solid State Storage• Solid State - A future replacement to hard drive storage • Uses existing technology similar to existing RAM chips• In the future, Solid State Storage could employ non-

volatile RAM chips• Solid State disks are available today in the form of

volatile RAM, that is backed up onto a conventional disk, so data is retained when the power is off

• These devices are in use on high-end servers, they are interchangeable with conventional disks

Networking

• In the LAN environment, networking speeds have jumped from 3MB/s to 10MB/s to 100MB/s and now 1000MB/s is widely available, although still expensive

• For the internet itself, advances in fibre optic technology is allowing greater amounts of data to be carried over wide distances than ever before

• As the demand for high-bandwidth services increase, this trend is certain to continue

• As for connecting homes to the internet, the modem is already inadequate for dealing with data such as video, or large file downloads

Video Technology• Video cards are expected to increase in processing

capabilities and bandwidth dramatically over the coming years

• Both the computer games market and real-time multimedia applications such as VRML are perpetually increasing demand in the video card market

• Video cards of today will seem very primitive in a few years time, as the technology is still a long way away of producing true real-world scenarios down to the tiniest detail

• The trend of offloading processing further CPU tasks onto the GPU is likely to continue

Sound Cards

• Sound cards are already down to a single chip, and can produce perfect CD quality audio

• Advancements are likely to be seen in technologies such as Dolby DTS (Dolby Theatre System), bringing that sort of hardware down in price

• Apart from added extras, sound cards are already at the level which is good enough for most common applications

Operating Systems

• The next couple of years are likely to be dominated by Windows XP

• Finally, Microsoft have unified their Win9X and WinNT product lines, this should avoid much deliberations about which OS is best

• XP attempts to take the compatibility of Win9X and the robustness of WinNT and unify them

• After XP, Microsoft will eventually release a 64-bit operating system. They have one already well into development

Linux in the future

• The share of desktops with Linux installed is steadily increasing

• Even if everyone owns windows, Linux is still useful, and can be installed alongside windows at no extra cost

• Linux has undergone important improvements, both in terms of its interface and at the kernel level

• As it is taken more seriously by big business, its robustness and support is projected to increase over the coming years

Final Note on Computer Technology

• No matter what you have learnt about computers in one year, you need to keep “on the ball” in subsequent years

• Even though computer technology moves along at a rapid pace, a knowledge of the fundamentals is essential in order to understand new technology

• Future predictions are often very wrong in computing

• For example, the computer industry never really foresaw the internet explosion

Appendix A – Some Linux/UNIX Commands

• cd - Change Directory• ls – List files in a Directory• vi <file> – edit a file• startx – start X-windows manually• halt – shut the computer down• reboot• man <command> - read the manpage of a command• more <file> - read a file • rpm – install/remove software packages

Configuring the Linux X-server

• The X-server provides the graphical interface to Linux

• It is optional, but is recommended for workstation configuration

• Sometimes, the install procedure does not configure the X-server correctly

• To do it manually, use the xf86config command

xf86config

• Use this program to select mouse type, keyboard language, and most importantly video modes for the graphical environment

• Before starting, you need to know how much video RAM your video card has

• This normally appears near the top of the screen at the beginning of the boot process

xf86config

• After running xf86 config, a file /etc/X11/XF86Config will be created

• That file contains all of the X-windows configuration information

• It is not recommended to edit that file by hand

• To test the X-windows configuration, type startx

Removing/adding packages

• Type rpm –query –all | more to display all packages installed

• Type rpm –i package-name.rpm to install a software package

• rpm –e package-name.rpm uninstalls a package from the system