Paul Traub

Paul TraubFederal Reserve Bank of ChicagoMay 17, 2013

Economic UpdateCrain’s Executive Orientation

2Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Overview

May17, 2013

• The U.S. Economy

• Private Domestic Investment

• The U.S. Consumer

• Michigan Economy


Billions Chained $2005, % Change Q/Q at SAAR

'00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 '09 '09 '10 '10 '11 '11 '12 '12 '1311,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0$ Billions

Q4 ‘07$13,326

Q1 ‘13$13,750

Q2 ‘09$12,701

Declined $625B (Peak to Trough, -4.7%)

May17, 2013

Q1 ‘132.5%

U.S. Real GDP

Q4 ‘08-8.9%

Percent

Source: BEA

4Federal Reserve Bank of ChicagoMay17, 2013

GDP Consumption Investment Trade Government-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2.53.2

12.2

4.2

-4.1

U.S. Real GDP and ComponentsPercent Change from Preceding Period - Q4 ’12, SAAR

Nonresidential 2.1Residential 12.6

Percent

Source: Author’s calculations using data from the BEA

Exports 2.9Imports 5.4


GDP Consumption Investment Exports Imports Government-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

18.4 20.2

27.3 27.1

38.4

12.8

3.2 4.6

-6.2

14.1

3.0

-0.9

Average '60 - '01 2007 Recession

Recession ComparisonsPercent Change 21 Quarters After the Start of the Recession

Percent

Source: Author’s calculations using data from the BEA


Apr '12 Jan '13 Feb Mar Apr May1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2.3

2.01.9 1.9

2.12.0

2.6 2.62.8

2.7 2.7 2.7

2013 20142012

Percent Change Yr / Yr

U.S. Real GDP

Percent Consensus of the Blue Chip by Month


2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0

3.2

1.61.2 1.2

2.2

7.5

6.4

5.1 5.35.7

5.3

4.03.2 3.3

4.0

Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing EconomiesWorld

Global OutlookIMF Forecast for Growth (April ‘13), Percent Change Yr/Yr

Percent

Difference from January 2013 Outlook2013 -0.1 -0.2 -0.22014 0.0 -0.1 0.0


Closing the Output Gap

'00 '00 '01 '02 '03 '03 '04 '05 '06 '06 '07 '08 '09 '09 '10 '11 '12 '12 '13 '14 '15 '1510,500

11,500

12,500

13,500

14,500

15,500

Potential Actual 2% Growth3% Growth 4% Growth 5% Growth

$ BillionsQ1 ‘16

Q1 ‘15Q3 ‘20

Actual / Projected Growth Rate Scenarios

Congressional Budget Office Projection

Output Gap -5.6%

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 9

Private Domestic Investment

May17, 2013



'00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 '09 '09 '10 '10 '11 '11 '12 '12 '131,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0$ Billions

Q1 ‘06$2,266

Q1 ‘13$1,992

Q3 ‘09$1,395Declined $871B (Peak to Trough, -38.5%)

May17, 2013

Q1 ‘1312.2%

Total Gross Private Domestic Investment

Percent

Source: BEA



'00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 '09 '09 '10 '10 '11 '11 '12 '12 '131,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0$ Billions Q4 ‘07

$1,592Q1 ‘13$1,530

Q4 ‘09$1,216


May17, 2013

Q1 ‘132.1%

Nonresidential Private Domestic Investment

Percent

Source: BEA


Index, 2000 = 100

'00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 '09 '09 '10 '10 '11 '11 '12 '12 '1340

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Structures Equipment and software

IndexQ1 ‘13132.3

May17, 2013

Q1 ‘1382.7

Nonresidential Private Domestic Investment

Source: BEA



'00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 '09 '09 '10 '10 '11 '11 '12 '12 '13200

300

400

500

600

700

800

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0$ Billions Q4 ‘05

$1,592

Q1 ‘13$397.8

Q3 ‘10$322.2


May17, 2013

Q1 ‘1312.6%

Residential Private Domestic Investment

Percent

Source: BEA

Home Prices


'01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 '09 '09 '10 '10 '11 '11 '12 '12 '13 '130.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

-30.0

-15.0

0.0

15.0

30.0

45.0

% Change Y/Y Case-Shiller

Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, January 2000 = 100

9.4%

Index

Feb ’13149.8

% Change Y/Y


'00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 '09 '09 '10 '10 '11 '11 '12 '12 '13 '130.0

40.0

80.0

120.0

160.0

200.0

Case Shiller 30 Yr - 0% Down 15 Yr - 0% Down30 Yr - 20% Down2 15 Yr - 20% Down Mortgage

Note: S&P Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index, 30 Year Mortgage at 8.1%, 15 year Mortgage at7.7 %.

Index

Home Price and Homeowner EquityUnited States - Index, January 2000 = 100

30 Year Mortgage Balance

15 Year Mortgages Balance


Cash-Out RefinanceTotal Cash-out and 2nd Mortgages/HELOC Consolidation, Billions of Dollars

Source: Freddie Mac

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '120.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

Home Equity 2nd Mortgage/HELOC Consolidation

2000 – 2007, $1.7 Trillion / 71% of 20 Year Total

$Billions


'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1320.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Case Shiller 30 Yr - 0% Down 15 Yr - 0% Down30 Yr - 20% Down2 15 Yr - 20% Down Mortgage

Note: S&P Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index, 30 Year Mortgage at 6.3%, 15 year Mortgage at 6.0%.

Home Price and Homeowner EquityUnited States - Index, January 2007 = 100




Own versus RentCPI – Primary Residence, Index 2007 = 100, Jan ‘07 – Mar ‘13

'07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 '09 '09 '09 '09 '10 '10 '10 '10 '11 '11 '11 '11 '12 '12 '12 '12 '13 '1390.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

Rent of primary residenceOwners' equivalent rent of primary residence

Index

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits


'00'00'01'01'02'02'03'03'04'04'05'05'06'06'07'07'08'08'09'09'10'10'11'11'12'12'130

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Starts Permits

Thousands of Units, SAAR

1,036

907

Thousands

Mar ‘13

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


U.S. Consumer

May17, 2013

Real Disposable Personal Income & Savings Rate

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Income Savings Rate


Percent

Percent Change Year/Year, Percent of DPI

May17, 2013

Mar ’132.7%

1.1%

Source: BEA

May ‘09-4.9%

'62 '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 '73 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '07 '09 '11 '1310.0

13.0

16.0

19.0

22.0

25.0

28.0

Total Consumer Credit


Percent

May17, 2013

Revolving and Non-revolving Credit as % of DPI

Feb ’1323.2%

'80 '81 '82 '83 '85 '86 '87 '88 '90 '91 '92 '93 '95 '96 '97 '98 '00 '01 '02 '03 '05 '06 '07 '08 '10 '11 '128.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

Debt Service Ratio Financial Obligation Ratio

Debt Service & Financial Obligation Ratios


15.5%

Percent

10.4%

May17, 2013

Percent of Disposable Personal Income

Q4 ‘12

Inflation – CPI Price Index


'00'00'01'01'02'02'03'03'04'04'05'05'06'06'07'07'08'08'09'09'10'10'11'11'12'12'13'13-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Percent Change Yr / Yr

CPI - CoreMar ‘13

1.9%

CPI – All ItemsMar ‘13

1.5%

Percent


'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1362.0

63.0

64.0

65.0

66.0

67.0

68.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Participation Rate U.S.

Percent

Apr ‘13

May17, 2013

U.S. Unemployment & Participation Rates

63.3

Percent – Seasonally Adjusted

Source: BLS

7.5%


Education & Health Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Professional & Business Services

Mining & Logging

Federal Government

Other Services

State Government

Information

Financial Activities

Local Government

Trade, Transportation & Utilities

Construction

Manufacturing

(2,000.0) (1,500.0) (1,000.0) (500.0) 0.0 500.0 1,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0

2,011.0

534.0

391.0

118.0

31.0

(51.0)

(95.0)

(335.0)

(408.0)

(480.0)

(877.0)

(1,686.0)

(1,735.0)

U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment by SectorEmployment Change Jan ‘08 – April ‘13, Thousands of Jobs

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Total -2,582, -1.9%


Households Net Worth

'80'81'82'83'85'86'87'88'90'91'92'93'95'96'97'98'00'01'02'03'05'06'07'08'10'11'120.0

10,000.0

20,000.0

30,000.0

40,000.0

50,000.0

60,000.0

70,000.0

80,000.0

Home Equity Financial and Other

-$1.3

Trillions of Dollars, Q1 ‘80 to Q4 ‘12

Total DeclineQ3 ‘07 – Q1 ‘09 -$16.0

Q3 ‘07$67.4

Source: Federal Reserve Z.1 Statistical Release ,Table B100, Households and Nonprofit Organizations

Q4 ‘12$66.1

Consumer Sentiment


University of MichiganIndex

'82 '87 '92 '97 '02 '07 '1220

40

60

80

100

120

140

Apr ’1376.4

January ‘00112.0

Source: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan


Michigan Economy

May17, 2013


1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 YTD

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

11,000,000

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

16.1

30.532.0

8.5

21.222.8

13.4

4.4

0.4

6.9

-0.6

0.1

21.0

15.0 16.2

7.3

14.5

18.5

13.311.5

9.8

13.2

9.7

2.2

MI - % Chg. (Right) U.S. _ % Chg. MI Population (Left)

Thousands Percent

1910 to 2010 by Decade, Percent Change

Michigan Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


Source: U.S. Census Bureau / Haver Analytics

'50 '53 '56 '59 '62 '65 '68 '71 '74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '105,000.0

10,000.0

15,000.0

20,000.0

25,000.0

30,000.0

35,000.0

40,000.0

Michigan U.S.

Real Per Capita IncomeThousands of $2005

$Thousands2012$36.9

$32.4

20092009

20092009

20102010

20102010

20112011

20112011

20122012

20122012

2013-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

Manufacturing Construction Services Consumer Index


Index

Sectoral Contribution

Mar ‘130.27

May17, 2013

Midwest Economic Index

Source: FRB of Chicago

20092009

20092009

20102010

20102010

20112011

20112011

20122012

20122012

2013-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

Mfg. Const. Svcs. Consumer Index


Index

Michigan’s Contribution

Mar ‘130.10

May17, 2013

Midwest Economic Index


20092009

20092009

20092009

20102010

20102010

20102010

20112011

20112011

20112011

20122012

20122012

20122012

20132013

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Mfg. Const. Svcs. Consumer Index


Index

Michigan’s Contribution

Mar ‘130.13

May17, 2013

Relative Midwest Economic Index


'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12125,000.0

175,000.0

225,000.0

275,000.0

325,000.0

375,000.0

425,000.0

-12.0

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

4.9

2.3

% Chg. Yr/Yr GSP GSP Fcst


2005$

Billions of 2005$, Percent Change Year / Year

2012$341

May17, 2013

1.2

Percent

Source: Haver Analytics / FRB of Chicago

Michigan Real Gross State Product

2003$379

20092009

20092009

20102010

20102010

20112011

20112011

20122012

20122012

20132013

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0


2000$

Mar ‘132.95

May17, 2013

Michigan Exports of Manufactures Goods

Source: Haver Analytics

Billions of 2000$, Percent Change Year / Year

Percent

-8.7


'07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 '09 '09 '09 '10 '10 '10 '11 '11 '11 '12 '12 '12 '13 '13 '130.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Michigan Unemployment Rate

Mar ’13

8.5

Unemployment rate & Household Employment – S.A.

Source: BLS

Percent

Jan Feb Mar-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Private Government Cumulative Total YTD


(000)’s

28.5

May17, 2013

Michigan Nonfarm Payroll – 2013

Source: BLS / Haver Analytics

Establishment Survey - SA

-5.1-1.5

25.0

35.1

14.4

-4.3

3.9

21.1


Education & Health Services

State Government

Professional & Business Services

Mining & Logging

Federal Government

Other Services

Financial Activities

Information

Leisure & Hospitality

Construction

Trade, Transportation & Utilities

Manufacturing

Local Government

(100.0) (80.0) (60.0) (40.0) (20.0) 0.0 20.0 40.0

34.3

12.0

10.0

0.2

(2.2)

(6.5)

(8.0)

(9.9)

(14.4)

(36.6)

(49.8)

(53.7)

(54.2)

Michigan Nonfarm Payroll Employment by SectorEmployment Change Jan ‘08 – Mar ‘13, Thousands of Jobs

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Haver Analytics

Total -178.8, -4.2%


'00'00'01'01'02'02'03'03'04'04'05'05'06'06'07'07'08'08'09'09'10'10'11'11'12'12'130.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

24.0

28.0

Detroit Grand Rapids Ann Arbor U.S.

Unemployment Rate

Mar ‘1317.5

8.3

5.4

Unemployment Rate for Select Cities – N.S.A.

Source: BLS

Percent

'05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 '09 '09 '10 '10 '11 '11 '12 '1240.050.060.070.080.090.0

100.0110.0120.0130.0140.0

Michigan Detroit


Index

Q4 ‘1294.9

79.9

May17, 2013

FHFA Home Prices

Source: Haver Analytics

Index, 2000 = 100


Home Price and Homeowner EquityMichigan and Detroit - Index, Q1 2000 = 100

'00 '00 '01 '02 '03 '03 '04 '05 '06 '06 '07 '08 '09 '09 '10 '11 '12 '12 '130.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

Michigan Detroit 30 Yr - 0% Down30 Yr - 20% Down 15 Yr - 0% Down2 15 Yr - 20% Down Mortgage

Note: FHFA Home Price Index, 30 Year Mortgage at 8.1%, 15 year Mortgage at 7.7%.

Index




'07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 '09 '09 '09 '09 '10 '10 '10 '10 '11 '11 '11 '11 '12 '12 '12 '12 '13 '13 '13 '1340.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

Michigan Detroit 30 Yr - 0% Down30 Yr - 20% Down 15 Yr - 0% Down2 15 Yr - 20% Down Mortgage



Index

Note: FHFA Home Price Index, 30 Year Mortgage at 6.3%, 15 year Mortgage at 6.0%.

Home Price and Homeowner EquityMichigan and Detroit - Index, Q1 2007 = 100

'00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 '09 '09 '10 '10 '11 '11 '12 '12 '130.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

United States Michigan


Index

Mar ‘1365.8

25.7

May17, 2013

Housing Starts

Source: U.S. Census / Haver Analytics

Index, 2000 = 100


'06'06'06'06'07'07'07'07'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10'11'11'11'11'12'12'12'12'13'13'13'13'14'14'14'146.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Aug ’0914.6

Apr ‘1314.9

Apr ’099.2

SAAR and Annual Sales

Millions

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales

Cash for Clunkers

Source: Ward’s Automotive and BEA

16.516.1

13.2

10.4

11.6

12.7

14.415.4

15.9

May Blue Chip Consensus


“Detroit 3” N.A. Auto CapacityCalendar Year 2005 - 2012

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '130.0

2,500,000.0

5,000,000.0

7,500,000.0

10,000,000.0

12,500,000.0

15,000,000.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

Chrysler Ford G.M. N.A. Share

PercentMillions

Source: Ward’s Automotive

Detroit 3 Chrysler, Ford and General Motors

13.5M, 67.8%

8.9M, 53.9%


“Detroit 3” L.V. Market ShareCalendar Year 2005 – April, 2013

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Apr. YTD

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0 56.853.6

51.047.4

44.1 45.0 46.944.6 46.0

Percent

Source: Ward’s Automotive

Detroit 3: Chrysler, Ford and General Motors

Thank You!http://michiganeconomy.chicagofedblogs.org/

Paul Traub

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