Paul Hoffman – Paul Hoffman – hoffman_paul@bah.com 703-377-0496

Personal Rapid Transit

Strategies for Advancing Strategies for Advancing

The State Of The IndustryThe State Of The Industry

Transportation Research Board - January 23, 2007Transportation Research Board - January 23, 2007

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AgendaAgendaAgendaAgenda

The Urban Transportation Challenge

Overview of Personal Rapid Transit

Performance Comparisons

State of the Industry

Lessons Learned from Other Industries

The Transportation Utility Business Model

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Congestion – The Urban Transportation ChallengeCongestion – The Urban Transportation ChallengeCongestion – The Urban Transportation ChallengeCongestion – The Urban Transportation Challenge

Congestion in the U.S. is a significant problem affecting:

Economic viability of urban regions

Quality of life

Environment

National metrics of congestion*:

2.3 billion annual gallons of fuel wasted

$63 billion in financial costs

Average annual delay per person 93 hours in Los Angeles 69 hours in Washington DC 49 hours in NY/NJ 47 hours US average

Congestion is only getting worse and has increased an average 9% per year since 1982

*Source TTI 2005 Urban Mobility Study

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1919thth Century Options for a 21 Century Options for a 21stst Century Problem Century Problem1919thth Century Options for a 21 Century Options for a 21stst Century Problem Century Problem

Expansion of current modes is limited by:

High costs

Land availability

Impact and public acceptance

Highways

Expensive in urban areas

Limited land availability

Metro/Commuter Rail

Expensive in urban areas

Light Rail

High service factor but limited by surface traffic unless separated at higher cost

Bus

Low cost but limited by surface traffic and slower trip times

Additional capacity is needed

ITS can optimize use of current infrastructure

Congestion pricing can manage demand

New infrastructure that offers high service and capacity at a reasonable cost and impact is also needed to meet growing demand

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The Genesis of PRT - Needs and Features The Genesis of PRT - Needs and Features The Genesis of PRT - Needs and Features The Genesis of PRT - Needs and Features

A New Paradigm for Urban Public Transportation

PRT has been engineered as an innovative and new system using advanced, commercially available automation to address the needs of urban transportation

Need Design Feature and Goal

Faster and more attractive service

Non-stop, on-demand service

Private, seated-only vehicles

Lower operating costs Reduced staffing through increased levels of automation

Reduced energy use

Lower capital costs Reduced size of infrastructure for stations, track and right-of-way

Improve urban integration and access

Lower costs, smaller footprint and tighter turning radius to integrate into dense urban environments

Reduce congestion Faster and personalized service to attract private automobile users

Reduced pollution Quiet, electric vehicles

Reduced energy use Small, lightweight vehicles operating non-stop and on demand to eliminate unnecessary vehicle movements

Increased safety and security Distributed demand and continuous flow to eliminate crowds under advanced monitoring and control

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Technology Overview – PRT FundamentalsTechnology Overview – PRT FundamentalsTechnology Overview – PRT FundamentalsTechnology Overview – PRT Fundamentals

Fundamental elements of PRT technology:

On-demand, non-stop, origin-to-destination service

Small, automated vehicles

Small, exclusive use guideways

Off-line stations

Network of connected guideways

Combines elements of automotive, computer, network and transit technologies

Uses current state-of-the-art technologies including:

Advanced propulsion systems

On-board switching and guidance

High speed controls and communication

Lightweight advanced materials

PRT represents a new option for sustainable,

effective urban transportation providing higher access and service

at a lower cost than current transit options.

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Components of PRTComponents of PRTComponents of PRTComponents of PRT

Small, fully automated vehicles

Small, exclusive use guideways

Small guideway and foundation reduces right of

way requirements

Low impact allows ease of urban integration

Skyweb Express ULTra Vectus

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3 Berth

6 Berth

9 Berth

12 Berth

3 Berth

6 Berth

9 Berth

12 Berth

Components of PRTComponents of PRTComponents of PRTComponents of PRT

Off-line stations sized to demand

Networks supporting distributed demand and line haul access

Line-Haul Rail System

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Comparison and Performance of PRTComparison and Performance of PRTComparison and Performance of PRTComparison and Performance of PRT

PRT is expected to offer cost and performance improvements over conventional transit and road solutions. Expected benefits from engineering studies and pilots systems include:

Need Design Feature and Goal

Faster total travel times 14 – 65% faster overall travel speeds than rail

Lower operating costs 25 -50% lower than light rail

Comparable or slightly higher than heavy rail

Lower or comparable with automobile

Lower capital costs 25-50% lower than light rail

35-75% lower than monorail or heavy rail

Reduced energy use Auto equivalent of 70-90 mpg

Up to 50% less than rail

Capacity Comparable to light rail and advanced bus systems

Lower than heavy rail per corridor, higher on a capacity/cost basis

One-way guideway equal to 2-3 highway lanes

Small right of way 3’-5’ wide guideway

Able to be installed on curb or median

Stations integrated into buildings

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PRT Performance Comparison – Average SpeedPRT Performance Comparison – Average SpeedPRT Performance Comparison – Average SpeedPRT Performance Comparison – Average Speed

Average speed is determined by line speed, number of stops, distance between stops, dwell time at stops, and trip length

PRT systems can achieve an average speed of 20-25 mph with line speed of 25-30 mph due to non-stop trip

PRT trips can be 80-100% faster than a typical bus trip

PRT trips can be 20-30% faster than a typical heavy rail trip

All else being equal, higher average speed can result in higher patronage

Source: 2005 APTA Fact Book

0

5

10

15

20

25

Avera

ge S

peed (m

ph)

TransitAverage

Metro Rail Light Rail Bus PRT

Mode

Non-stop service allows PRT to have higher average speeds than

other transit modes

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O&M Cost ComparisonO&M Cost ComparisonO&M Cost ComparisonO&M Cost Comparison

$0.00$0.10$0.20$0.30$0.40$0.50$0.60$0.70$0.80$0.90

O&M Cost Per Passenger Mile

Source: 2005 APTA Transit Fact Book, NJT, FTA, Case Studies, PRT Vendors

High levels of automation, reliable commercial components and exclusive use guideways should allow PRT systems to have

competitive Operating and Maintenance (O&M) costs.

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O&M Cost and Revenue Per Trip ComparisonO&M Cost and Revenue Per Trip ComparisonO&M Cost and Revenue Per Trip ComparisonO&M Cost and Revenue Per Trip Comparison

Transit O&M cost recovery is 34% nationally

PRT systems can be expected to recover a higher percentage of O&M costs if fares reflect per mile O&M cost

PRT in a moderate scale application can expect to break even on operating costs for an average four mile trip and average fare of $1.60

Source: 2005 APTA Transit Fact Book, NJT, FTA, Case Studies, PRT Vendors

$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7$8$9

US Ove

rall

US Commuter

US LRT

US Bus

US Metro

M-PRT

PRT

$ pe

r T

rip

Revenue O&M Cost

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PRT Capital Cost ComparisonPRT Capital Cost ComparisonPRT Capital Cost ComparisonPRT Capital Cost Comparison

Capital costs are highly specific to location, line layout, number and complexity of stations

The design of PRT systems, with small vehicles and guideways, can support lower capital costs than other exclusive, grade-separated, fixed guideway rail systems

PRT costs can be expected to be comparable with exclusive right-of-way BRT systems

Lower capital costs would be primarily due to:

Smaller guideway and stations

Reduced civil work and right-of-way acquisition

Capital Cost/Mile ($M)

Mode Low Average High

Metro Rail $110 $200 $2,000

Light Rail $25 $50-$70 $195

APM – Urban $30 $100-$120 $145

APM - Airport $49 $100-$150 $237

BRT Busway $7 $14-$25 $50

BRT Tunnel $200 $250 $300

PRT One Way $15 $20-$35 $50

PRT Two Way $25 $30- $50 $75

Sources:Kerr-2005, TCRP –R90, GAO – BRT 2000, Vendor Estimates, Case Studies

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PRT Energy ComparisonPRT Energy ComparisonPRT Energy ComparisonPRT Energy Comparison

Source: Anderson 1998 - Note: PRT figures are engineering estimates only

HR - Heavy Rail Transit; LR - Light Rail Transit; TB - Trolley Bus; MB - Motor Bus; VP - Van Pool; DB - Dial-a-Bus;

A - Automobile; PR - Personal Rapid Transit.

PRT can provide lower overall energy use than other transit modes with an auto equivalent of 70-90 MPG

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PRT Performance Comparison – CapacityPRT Performance Comparison – CapacityPRT Performance Comparison – CapacityPRT Performance Comparison – Capacity

Line capacity is determined by headway, vehicle capacity and load factor

PRT systems can have comparable line capacity with bus and light rail if safe and reliable short headway operation is achieved

PRT systems can have higher overall system capacity when multiple lines and network layouts are considered with comparable total costs

Source: TCRP Transit Capacity Manual

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Passengers/Hour/Direction (k)

Observed

METRO RAIL Theoretical

Observed

LIGHT RAIL Theoretical

Observed

BUSWAY Theoretical

Expected

PRT Theoretical

Transit Mode Line Capacity

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PRT Technology MaturationPRT Technology MaturationPRT Technology MaturationPRT Technology Maturation

PRT has followed an extended R&D stage and is entering an early adopter stage of maturation

Hig

hA

doptio

nLo

w

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Basic Research -Concept Development

Applied Research -Prototype and Pilot Systems

Early Adopters - Public Systems

Small – Moderate Scale Systems

Large Scale Urban Mass Market

Cabintaxi, CVS, Raytheon, ULTRa, EDICT, Vectus, Siemens?

Aerospace, UMTA, AGRT, U of M

Morgantown Heathrow, UAE? Sweden? Macau?

Standardization, Public/Private Development

Regulated Utilities, Commoditization

We are at a technology inflection point

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Summary PRT State-of-the-IndustrySummary PRT State-of-the-IndustrySummary PRT State-of-the-IndustrySummary PRT State-of-the-Industry

Active or past test track operationULTra, CabinTaxi, Raytheon, CVS, Morgantown, Aramis

Current prototype developmentVectus, SkyWeb Express, Microrail, Coaster, Ecotaxi/Kone

Readiness

Significant research, engineering, development and application studies for over 40 years

Past efforts provide a solid foundation for final engineering and development

Advanced technology components are proven and ready to support an integrated PRT system design

An optimum configuration and viable vendor base has not been established

Acceptance

Cities and regions continue to display interest in PRT and select as preferred alternative but disqualify PRT due to lack of proven technology

Research and developmentDevelopers are limited due to lack of market acceptance and financial backingKorean, Swedish and British development programs underway

Current application interest and procurementsGreat Britain - Heathrow; United States; Dubai, UAE; Korea; Europe

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Moving Forward – PRT as Full Option for Urban TransportationMoving Forward – PRT as Full Option for Urban TransportationMoving Forward – PRT as Full Option for Urban TransportationMoving Forward – PRT as Full Option for Urban Transportation

Conventional transit guideway systems have difficulty providing urban scale service due to limitations including:

Custom designs

Limited standards and interoperability

Limited scalability

Expensive and disruptive implementation

Required transfers between line haul segments

Service reductions for station additions

To achieve the promise of an urban transportation solution, PRT will need to:

Avoid custom designs and vendor specific solutions that limit scalability, require transfers, increase complexity

Adopt standards and commercial business models that provide increase revenue potential and decreased costs

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Vision for the Future PRT - The Network Utility ModelVision for the Future PRT - The Network Utility ModelVision for the Future PRT - The Network Utility ModelVision for the Future PRT - The Network Utility Model

PRT has the opportunity to develop a new business model with the potential to SCALE beyond the limited access of fixed guideway transit

The model is founded on the success of other commercial network businesses such as:

Telephone

Internet

Cell Phones

Cable

These network industries are founded on several fundamental principles:

Open standards

Mass production and economies of scale

Multiple suppliers and providers

Government regulation of public access and right of way

Market pricing

Open competition

Private funding

Transit can also follow these network successes if the fundamentals are applied to a common technology

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Scalable Transit NetworksScalable Transit NetworksScalable Transit NetworksScalable Transit Networks

PRT systems have the potential to evolve from local circulation and distribution systems to a full regional network

Franchise District #1

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Scalable Transit NetworksScalable Transit NetworksScalable Transit NetworksScalable Transit Networks

PRT systems have the potential to evolve from local circulation and distribution systems to a full regional network

Franchise District #1

Franchise District #3

Franchise District #2

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The Internet ExampleThe Internet ExampleThe Internet ExampleThe Internet Example

Standard-Enabled Business

TCP/IP protocol allowed all manufacturers to build to a common standard that allowed different devices and software products to work on a common network.

A commercial business model with mass production, competition and division of providers

Backbone Trunk Lines

Devices

Software

Customer Access

Billing

Administration

Content Providers

Private utilities with government regulatory involvement

The Internet: On Demand Information, Anytime,

Anywhere

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PRT StandardsPRT StandardsPRT StandardsPRT Standards

Performance and technical standards needed for scaleable PRT deployments:

Vehicle Guideway Interface

Power

Propulsion

Control and Communication

Ticketing

Safety, Security

Development of standards can occur:

As de facto from the industry leading technology

In cooperation with public agencies, federal government, associations, and manufacturers

Standards allow competition and mass production to occur resulting in:

• reduced costs

• increased quality

• market certainty

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PRT Standards – Vehicle Guideway InterfacePRT Standards – Vehicle Guideway InterfacePRT Standards – Vehicle Guideway InterfacePRT Standards – Vehicle Guideway Interface

The vehicle guideway interface is a critical standard that will require market validation to determine the optimum configuration

ULTra Vehicle Front Elevation & Transverse Section Ref.: OJECVehicleElevations1Drawn by JD Robertson

NTSAll Dimensions in mm.

9 August 2004

CommercialIn Confidence

Advanced Transport Systems Ltd.Unit 5, Brunel Way, Thornbury, Bristol BS35 3URTel.: 0044-1454-414700 Fax: 0044-1454-414770This drawing is the property of Advanced Transport Systems Ltd. and may only be shown orcopied to third parties with the prior agreement of the company.

Front Elevation:

114mm. unladen84mm. at 1200kg. GVW

Front Track - 950mm.

1800 (unladen)1770 (at 1200kg. GVW)

1400 (at rubbing strip)1455 (max.at bottom of window)

Transverse Cross Section at Vehicle Centreline:(looking towards the fixed rear seats)

60

190

Internal Widthat Floor Level = 1220

195 19550

Max. ClearInterior Height= 1460

860

5555

Clear DoorOpeningHeight= 1415

105

300

Skyweb Express ULTra Vectus

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Transportation Utility Business ModelTransportation Utility Business ModelTransportation Utility Business ModelTransportation Utility Business Model

Structured to be a distributed, self-promulgating model similar to the Internet, Cable or Cellular

Elements of an integrated business model

Regulator Agency

Developers/Franchise Holders

Service Operators

Vehicle Operators

Manufacturers

Regulatory agency:

Sells or grants public access/right-of-way through franchises

Oversee standards compliance

Insure safety, security, equal access

Manage fare policy and costs of developer/service provider

Manage central operations provider

Provides supplemental funding

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Development Funded Capital ExpansionDevelopment Funded Capital ExpansionDevelopment Funded Capital ExpansionDevelopment Funded Capital Expansion

Developers

Granted air-rights to install guideways in specific regions

Multiple developers with adjoining regions provide connectivity between networks

Contract with manufacturers to build and install guideways

Contract with central operations provider for system management and control

Revenue Opportunities

Value Capture from capital appreciation or revenue from increased land value and real estate development

Station Fee from local developers to install stations and off-line guideways as an aid to development

Franchise #1 Network

Franchise #2 Network

Cargo Services

Fare Revenue

Right-of-Way Fees

Advertising and Entertainment fees

Supplemental Public Support

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Operators Contract to Provide ServicesOperators Contract to Provide ServicesOperators Contract to Provide ServicesOperators Contract to Provide Services

Service Operators

Provide command and control functions

Supervise overall control of system

Insure vehicles and guideway sections are performing to standards

Vehicle Operators

Multiple providers are allowed to operate vehicles

Similar to access providers for the internet

Contract with manufacturers to build vehicles

Contract with service operators for access to systems

Manufacturers

Build components such as control, vehicles and guideways to standards

Compete on design, cost, efficacy, reliability, performance

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SummarySummarySummarySummary

PRT has the potential to offer:

High level of service that can potentially attract drivers from their cars and help relieve congestion

Lower capital and operating costs than other fixed rail options

Lower right-of-way requirements and opportunity to integrate and expand existing transportation systems with potentially reduced urban disruption

Reduced energy use and environmental impact

Increased safety and security

To advance beyond limited scale implementations, the industry needs:

Proven performance in public applications

Safe and reliable service

Standardized and scaleable technology

Mass production and economies of scale

A business model that: Reduces government capital and operating investments through private

development and value capture Allows market competition and innovation to address urban needs