Page 1

Sustainable Population Australia – NewsletterPatrons: The Hon Bob Carr • Professor Ian Lowe • Professor Tim Flannery • Dr Mary White • Dr Paul Collins • Youth Ambassador: Bindi Irwin

Demystifying sustainabilityBy Haydn Washington

Sustainability – whatexactly is it? Is it the key concept of our age, or has it become meaningless? ‘Our Common Future’ came outfrom the World Commissionon Environment and Development in 1987and made the terms‘sustainable development’and ‘sustainability’ famous.Yet we have become hugely

more unsustainable since then. What is going on?

Consider key facts:• 60% of ecosystem services are degrading• We have exceeded three ‘planetary limits’ (extinction,

climate, nitrate pollution)• The Earth’s ecological footprint is more than 1.5

Earths and the Living Planet Index has dropped by52%

• Extinction is at least 1,000-fold above the normallevels in the fossil record. Peter Raven and colleagues(2009) point out that if we continue as we are, then by2100 two thirds of life on Earth may be extinct.

So we have a major problem: our society is fundamentally unsustainable. What are the key drivers of this? First is overpopulation: there are too many people on Earth,consuming at too high a level. Various authors put the ecologically sustainable human population at around 2-3 billion, yet it is now 7.3 and may reach 10.9 billion by 2050. Given that we know we have exceeded ecologicallimits, it would seem obvious that population increase is a driver for environmental degradation. However, overpopulation as a key driver of unsustainability is still commonly ignored or even angrily denied.

Then comes overconsumption. As economist PaulEkins has noted, a sustainable ‘consumer’ society is actually a contradiction in terms. Since 1960, populationhas grown by a factor of 2.2 while consumption has gone up sixfold. If the entire world were to adopt US (or Australian) lifestyles, we would need at least four more planets to supply them. This can’t happen, hence why we are rapidly exceeding the Earth’s limits.

Then there is the endless growth myth. This is the mantraof neoliberalism and most governments and business.Proponents seek always to ‘bake a bigger cake’ ratherthan share the cake we have more equitably. Thosewho question this are castigated in both the media and academia. Yet the premise of endless growth on a finite planet is actually absurd and impossible. Past civilisations discovered this through collapse as Jared Diamond has shown (in the book of that name). Yet many academics now regularly talk about ‘green growth’ or ‘sustainable growth’. Yet no physical growth today is either green or sustainable (except perhaps growth in renewable energy that replaces something worse).

So, is sustainability the same as sustainable development? This is a key question rarely asked. ‘Our Common Future’ assumed growth was the only way to reach sustainability. Yet the reality is that endless growth is actually the cause of unsustainability. So if one means ‘growth’ by the ‘development’ in ‘sustainabledevelopment’, then this cannot be the same as anymeaningful ‘sustainability’. ‘Sustainable growth’ isreally a sleight-of-hand that has been used to justify continuing our unsustainable business-as-usual path.

Humanity sadly also has a key problem – denial. We have a long history of denying things we don’t like. However, the denial dam can be broken, and this is a requirement for sustainability.

Continued on Page 12

Page1

Haydn Washington

The case against tech-fix faith,decoupling and Ecomodernism

By Ted Trainer

Most people, including too many of the green variety, are believers in “tech-fi es i.e. t at tec nical ad ances can enable global problems to be dealt with well enough without any need to aban-don an economy and a culture commit-ted to a uent li estyles and economic ro t . e case a ainst t is ait is

overwhelmingly powerful and the links below are to summaries of its core t emes. ey o erlap considerably.

e essential issue in t is field is t e decouplin claim t at economic

growth can be separated from the demand for materials and energy, enabling these to be kept down to sustainable le els. e ollo in docu-ment pa es contains e idence rom about 30 studies, which all indicate that little or no decoupling is taking place, let alone on the massive scale that Ecomodernists assume is possi-ble. the simplerway.info/decoupling

eneral pa e case a ainst tec fi

faith, including additional issues, is at thesimplerway.info/techfix

In recent years a virulent strand of tec fi ait as been promoted by the Breakthrough Institute, under the

eadin o comodernism . criti ue of the Ecomodernist version of the faith is available at thesimplerway.info/eco-modernismcrit

stron statement o t e tec fi position from the radical left is given in Leigh Phillips’ book Austerity Ecology and the Collapse-Porn Addicts .

criti ue o t e boo and position is available at thesimplerway.info/tech-fixphillipscrit

n my ie t ese criti ues s o con-incin ly not only t at t ere is no ustifi-

cation or tec fi ait but in addition that global problems cannot be solved unless there is a dramatic reduction in current levels of production, consump-tion and P. ere is no possibility o

all people in the world living on any-thing like the levels of consumption we in rich countries have now, but people in t ese countries atly re use to at-tend to this issue, preferring to believe that technical advances will solve the problems.

e impler ay stands or t e claim that we could easily design and build an alternative society that would be ecologically sustainable, just and delightful – if enough of us wanted to ollo eneral e impler ay t emes. y ebsite t esimpler ay.info contains material on numerous related t emes. or detail on t e ind of alternative it argues for see thesimplerway.info/thealtsoclong.

Dr Ted Trainer is a retired lecturer at UNSW with a special interest in sustainability and alternative social and economic arrangements.

No. 125, September 2016

Contents

Katharine Betts: Politics and population growth 2

andra anc orld Population ay 3

P e ecuti e acti ities 5

ane ulli an Population projections 6

Book reviews 8-9

Branch news 10-11

andra anc snippets 12

Page 2 – Newsletter No. 125, September 2016

Opinion

Politics and population growthBy Katharine Betts

or the past 10 years Australians have been sub ected to e ceptional rates of population

ro t . o many oters are losin patience it its e ects. During the election campaign both major parties have promised to improve infrastructure, but neither have mentioned the chief reason for the need to do so: growing numbers.

Indeed the day before the election uly t e urnbull government’s new rules granting visas to international students as youn as si and t eir uardians came into e ect. uardians ill be allo ed to buy property and pressure on primary schools in sought-after areas will increase.

n o ember a sur ey commissioned by ustainable Population ustralia P ound t at

o oters t ou t ustralia did not need more people. en in ay t is year a sur ey done or

ound t at t ou t t at t e le el o immi ration durin t e past years ad been too i .

P as ed respondents t e reasons or t eir opinion. People who thought we did not need more people said our cites ere too cro ded or spo e o ob competition.

any orried about t e en ironmental e ects o ro t . Concern about too much cultural diversity was also high on t e list.

e sur ey ocused on immi ration and ound t at dissatisfaction with immigration was even higher than

it ro t in eneral. t as ed about multiculturalism. orty si per cent said t at t is ad ailed brin in social

di ision and reli ious e tremism to ustralia. ortythree per cent of those who were themselves migrants a reed.

t as reasonable or to ocus on immigration because this accounts for the major part of the current population boom around . Immigration is a product of government policy. t s t e outcome o decisions made by political elites, prompted by lobbyists for property developers, real estate agents, employers, and other businesses t at profit rom population ro t .

e t o sur eys s o t at t e electorate is fed up with the unwanted growth that the current power elite has wished upon t em.

e record numbers o mi rants in t e s ere partly ustified by t e pus

to keep affordable skills coming during the investment phase of the resources

boom. ut since t at ustification as e aporated and economic ro t as slo ed.

Despite this, governments, both Labor and Coalition, a e ept immi ration i . o t e moti ation is to eep t e ousin and de elopment interests appy.

ey continue to profit rom a stream o ne cus-tomers, a stream which also keeps the construction industry going and creates the appearance of a busy economy. ut t is strate y as not increased per capi-ta income. uite t e re erse.

It’s not just that forced population growth leads to clogged infrastructure, cultural disruption and environ-mental deterioration it also comes it financial stress.

ile real P as been risin since ecember net disposable income per capita as been allin .

Urban voters are also angry about the level of den-sification orced on t em by undemocratic plannin aut orities determined to accommodate de elopers.

roups suc as Plannin ac las oroonda-ra esidents ction roup a e our uburbs

esidents a ainst reedy nterprise and t e arlton esidents ssociation all e press deep rustration

about over-development, loss of heritage and declining uality o li e.

eature

Page 8 – Newsletter No. 120, June 2015

The tenuous link between population and prosperityby Katharine Betts

The Intergenerational Report released last week by Treasurer Joe Hockey proposes extremely high rates of immigration, adding nearly 13 million people by 2054-55 above the numbers foreshadowed by natural increase.

The report claims suchan increase will offset

demographic ageing and boost economic growth, but neither claim is borne out by the evidence. The effects on ageing are both trivial and transient and, when economic growth is considered in per capita terms (and in terms of real welfare), the increase will certainly be detrimental.

The narrative of the Intergenerational Report is that the population will be growing (though this, it transpires, has little to do with ageing) and the larger population will need more services. This will put pressure on the budget. So how are we to build “a strong and resilient economy and lay t e oundations or uture prosperity

It is no surprise to readers of this report’s three predecessors that the answer lies in the odd trifecta of population growth, productivity and participation.

The scenario that the report focuses on is one where the total fertility rate remains at around 1.9, life expectancy is in t e mid s and net o erseas mi ration is eld at 215,000 per annum. The report is careful not to make too much of its immigration assumption, presenting the increase in percentage terms. If the absolute number for net migration remains constant, this percentage measure will always show an unthreatening decline year-on-year, because the base population on which it is calculated will have grown. (After all, the second person to step ashore from the First Fleet in 1788 increased the European population by 100%, and the 11th by only 10%.)

The report links migration with economic growth in a curiously indirect fashion:

“Lower levels of net overseas migration would lead to

lower population growth rates over time and, therefore, lower economic growth.”

This is another way of asserting that high migration will increase aggregate GDP. Yes it will, but this has little to do with individual welfare. Here per capita GDP is the relevant measure.

GDP and well-being

The report projects a growth in aggregate GDP of 2.8% per annum over the next 40 years, but that of per capita GDP is projected at only 1.5%. So while the population will be growing briskly, the welfare of individuals will not be keeping pace with that of the economy as a

ole. is may not concern t e minority o profit from larger markets, but it will impact on voters.

Moreover the deep shortcomings of GDP as a measure of well-being are now all too well known; for example the misery t at commuters e perience stuc in tra fic s o s up as a positive for GDP (more petrol consumed, more costly wear and tear on vehicles), and the GDP takes no count at all of the drag that the congestion imposes on productivity. In contrast the State of Australian Cities report predicts tra fic con estion in t e ma or cities will cost Australians A$20.4 billion a year by 2020 and stories of its ill effects on productivity are commonplace.

The report also says, quite modestly, that migration “has an impact on t e a e distribution o t e population (because migrants tend to be younger when they arri e . t er aut oritati e o ernment reports find little support for the argument that high migration cures demographic ageing so a modest statement is prudent. But the scenario the authors have adopted is one of

istorically i mi ration t e first nter enerational eport assumed o . eir subse uent

ustifications or t eir o in act turn both on that of growth in aggregate GDP and the anti-ageing theme. (Yes, high migration will reduce t e median a e by around fi e years temporarily.

The report’s scenario leads to a population growing from 23.9 million in 2015 to 39.7 million in June 2055. Were we to follow a similar scenario but with nil net migration the population in June 2055 would be 26.9 million.

The report proposes a population increase of 12.8 million above and beyond where natural increase would take us. To what end? In June 2014 the total population of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide was 12.6 million. The report does not

Katharine BettsKatharine Betts

Newsletter No. 125, September 2016 – Page 3

Opinion

o ar t e ro t lobby as been able to eep on profitin rom balloonin numbers partly because few voters fully understand what is being done to t em. ey no t at conditions are ettin orse but they don’t fully understand the key role played by population ro t .

e P sur ey tested respondents no led e o demo rap ic c an e. e minority o ad a good understanding were the most likely to say

ustralia did not need more people. ut ne ery little.

oun people a ed to didn t do ell on t e demo rap y test but t ey ere t e sub roup ne t most likely to say Australia did not need more peo-ple. i e t e rest t ey ere rustrated by o ercro d-ing, but their other reasons focused more on fear of unemployment and una ordable ousin .

any oters are un appy it time de ourin tra fic jams, pressured schools, and ugly new high-rise buildin s. ey don t al ays no y t ese miser-ies are being wished upon them, or why they feel so po erless.

But their unhappiness has political effects, effects ic can e plain y o ernments state and

ederal a e been topplin so ast. o stay in po -er governments need to keep the essentials of life a ordable ousin electricity ater and transport.

ey also need to eep ospitals and sc ools acces-sible and reasonable obs open to locals.

Rapid growth makes all these goals harder to ac ie e. elbourne ydney and risbane are espe-cially a ected. nless randparents elp out t o in-come amilies in t eir late s it teena e c ildren are o ten still rentin and stru lin it po er bills.

Many stressed voters are disillusioned with the ma-or parties. ey may not realise t e de ree to ic tacit political collusion with interest groups adds to t eir distress but t ey are ed up.

The Daily Telegraph reports t at ic mit outspo-ken critic of mindless population growth, is now the most trusted public fi ure in ustralia une . is is not surprisin . or is it t at mainstream politicians are amon t e least trusted.

Dr Katharine Betts was joint-editor of the demographic journal People and Place from 1993 to 2010 and has written widely on demographic topics. She is currently adjunct associate professor of sociology at Swinburne and vice-president of the Australian Population Research Institute.

Continued Page 4

By Sandra Kanck

orld population day uly as establis ed by t e in to highlight concerns as the planet’s

population ent past billion.

e are no at . billion and risin by about million e ery year so t e problems are e en

more intractable despite t e rate o ro t declinin .

edium scenarios produced by t e estimate t e orld population could be bet een and billion by .

ome readers may be surprised t at ustralia has one of the highest population growth rates in t e de eloped orld.

e are addin about people a year it about per cent rom net o erseas

mi ration and per cent rom natural increase alt ou it as stood at a ratio or a number o years.

Sandra

Kanck

World

Population

Day

Page 4 – Newsletter No. 125, September 2016

Population is a notoriously di ficult sub ect to discuss in public forums, partly due to the comple ity o t e sub ect and partly due to t e political and emotional nature o t e issues.

ese issues can o to t e core o people s philosophies and values and include notions of freedom and human rights, compassion, religion, progress, ecology, and economic imperati es.

In Australia, people often get confused between sometimes competing issues like refugees and asylum seekers, racism, border protection, defence, economic migration, colonial uilt and sustainability.

ese tensions are not uni ue to ustralia as we can see from debates in Europe and the

in recent times.

at t e uropean merican and indeed Australian problems show is that sovereign states should not consider themselves immune from population pressures in other parts of the world as desperate people will have little regard for borders or dangerous sea crossin s.

o t at e tent not or profits li e ustainable Population ustralia P are continually lobbying governments to increase foreign aid to the developing world to help it gain control over unwanted and harmful population increase.

Unwanted population growth can largely be curtailed t rou a mi ture o education the provision of modern contraception, safe emergency abortion, and the alleviation of poverty – although some people like to argue about ic is more important.

Regardless, the empowerment of women is ital.

o purely rom a selfis point o ie it is in Australia’s interests to maintain a reasonable level of foreign aid, in concert with the rest of the developed world, and targeted to voluntary family planning programs that we no can be success ul.

Unfortunately Australia’s foreign-aid budget has been shrinking lately in a retrograde and myopic as ion.

But leaving the more obvious global problem to one side, I would argue that Australia is long overdue for an open debate on the benefits and burdens o domestic population ro t and ere t ese benefits and burdens all.

recent sur ey commissioned by P ound that most Australians did not think we needed more people and a sur ey by in ay ound t at o people t ou t t at t e

level of immigration over the past 10 years ad been too i .

Proponents of a ‘big Australia’ are mostly business barons and their hirelings: the wealthy gain the most from population growth and can largely insulate themselves from its negative effects like sky-rocketing real-estate prices, long commutes to work and in rastructure s ort alls.

Meanwhile, the average person, but especially the young and the poor, suffers the most – from unaffordable housing, general congestion, and competition for access to education and ealt ser ices.

More unseen problems tend to harm everybody: these include biodiversity loss, increased greenhouse gases and climate change, the reduction in fresh-water availability, and the steady increase in all inds o pollution.

ile unpopular amon elites especially economists, I would argue that there needs to be a conversation about the direction our society is going and that the privileging and mindless pursuit of GDP growth might not be t e best option on a finite planet ere limits to growth seem obvious to all those not blinded by do ma.

Rather, the pursuit and monitoring of such things as general wellbeing and happiness might be a more rational strategy, especially i t at means a more e ual s arin o at wealth can be generated in an ecologically sustainable as ion.

If we adopt the latter planned approach, we mi t ell find t at a stable rat er t an an e er ro in population is more sensible.

e alternati e may ell be an unplanned population correction t at no one ould find en oyable.

Sandra Kanck is SPA’s national president.

Opinion

From Page 3

Newsletter No. 125, September 2016 – Page 5

Round up

SPA national executive activities 2015

As part of the government re uirements or us to be considered as a registered environmental organisation and be eligible for deductible i t recipient status P is re uired to report annually to t e Department of Environment and t e ustralian arities and ot orprofits ommission. elo is t e list o outcomes or t at ere provided to these organisations as part o our annual reports.

National office and associated expenses

n Maintained a website population.org.au to which new material is added constantly which

as an educational role.

n ssued media releases re uently t rou out t e year.

n Lobbied various politicians on the need to recognise population growth as being detrimental to the en ironment.

n Had a number of letters to editors and articles publis ed.

n Contributed to a number of forums includin e on ersation e

rum and Pop orum.

n e a e oined or retained membership of the Population

ustainability et or ustainable Population Earth, the Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the

iosp ere irls ot rides and limate ction et or Australia, which in turn gives us access to limate ction et or nternational. e a e also maintained close contact with like-minded organisations overseas such as Population Media Center, Population Matters, Population nstitute Population nstitute

anada and t e orld atc nstitute.

n Made submissions to the Producti ity ommission s in uiry into mi rant inta e into ustralia.

n ade a submission to t e in uiry conducted by the House of Representatives Environment Committee into Registered

n ironment r anisations.

n Developed a procedures manual for e ecuti e positions.

n an a aceboo site on population.

n Maintained membership records and rene als.

n onducted appeals or donations.

Newsletter production

n Produced a uarterly ne sletter that members often pass on to ot ers in ard copy or electronically.

n Produced a fortnightly electronic newsletter containing the latest population ne s and in ormation.

National projects

n Organised a symposium on Population and Aging in Adelaide on

arc .

n Distributed and sold copies of the book Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot on be al o lobal Population pea

ut.

n e film Surviving Earth was screened at on ecember or anised by t e local P branc

it t e ran enner oundation. A panel discussion followed which included David Holmgren, Ian Lowe and ot ers.

n Launched the book Sustainable Futures in ebruary. is boo is based on tal s i en at t e enner

on erence in .

n Produced two bumper stickers and distributed t em to members.

n unded a sur ey into attitudes to population ro t in ustralia.

e results ere analysed by r Katharine Betts, published by Australian Population Research Institute, and reported in a number o ne spaper articles.

n ponsored a isit to Pert and delaide in o ember by ill yerson o t e Population edia

Center so he could present a public lecture.

n Attended the Migration Update on erence in delaide.

International projects

n Presentation to the 100th Annual Meeting of the Ecological

ociety o merica in altimore aryland u ust. e

talk was titled ‘Big, dry and full: population politics and the en ironment in ustralia .

n Presented a paper titled yner y between population policy, climate adaptation and mitigation’ at the Climate Change: Impacts & Responses conference in

ancou er in pril.

n ponsored saac abon o s participation in t e

on erence in Paris in ecember.

n et or ed it ot er lobal population or anisations.

n Presented a paper titled e in rastructure di idend

conceptualisin and uanti yin the cost of providing capacity for additional people at t e t rican Population Conference in Pretoria,

out rica in ecember.

Page 6 – Newsletter No. 125, September 2016

Population projections:

recipes for action, or inactionBy Jane O’Sullivan

P rojections should arm us to prepare for the future and take pre-emptive action to avoid t reats. ecent population

projections have had the opposite e ect. y ailin to ac no led e t e impact of choices that countries have made in the past, and could make in the future, they have undermined pre empti e action. is atalistic approach has probably contributed to a global slow-down in fertility decline over the past two decades, which has already added billions to the likely peak population.

By giving little weight to the recent slow-down, projections have recently over-estimated fertility decline, and hence underestimated population ro t i ures . ac re ision

is adjusted upward, acknowledging the reater t an e pected recent ro t

but projects forward using the same optimistic assumptions. e lac o attention or concern raised by the repeated upward revisions speaks strongly of the complacency that has been cultivated toward population ro t .

ese pro ections a e i en alse reassurance that population growth will end within decades regardless of what we do, allowing legitimate concern about overpopulation to be dismissed as nai e and pointless paranoia. Partly to avoid such condescension, many researchers avoid treating future popu-lation as a ariable. ey conse uently fail to measure its profound impact on so many of the challenges now faced by humanity and by the many other species e are cro din out.

ose researc ers o a e uantified impacts of different population paths

have found that population effects dwarf climate change effects on food and water security in the most vulner-able locations, and that the gains for climate change mitigation and adapta-tion of more rapid fertility reduction are among the largest, cheapest and most

idely beneficial ains a ailable to us. Yet such studies continue to be ignored in the global agenda for international development and for climate change action.

e main problem is t at t e s projections are silent on the role of c oices. t as pro ram c oice ic sa ailand s ertility all rapidly in t e

s ran s pull abruptly a ay rom those of its neighbours, Costa Rica lead the pack in Central America, and Rwanda now diverging so strongly from nei bourin urundi and anda.

Conversely, it is through lack of volition that most of the highest fer-

tility countries do not yet have fertility

falls as fast as the medium projection e pects. is is t e cru o t e matter t e s met odolo y ic e plicitly assumes a continuation of current policy settings, poses that the highest fertility countries, which have seen the

Opinion

i ure . e re ision o nited ations population pro ections predicted a year population more t an a billion i er t an its estimate ic as already a billion

i er t an e pectations. o muc i er mi t it yet mo e

Jane O’Sullivan

Newsletter No. 125, September 2016 – Page 7

Opinion

slowest fertility reductions to date, will show the fastest reductions from now on. ut istory tells us t at t ese abrupt starts a e depended on policy c an e.

ince t ese countries a e t e reatest in uence on uture lobal population

e can only e pect t at t e ne t re i-sion ill also be up ards.

I am reminded of the saying, that the definition o stupidity is doin t e same t in o er and o er a ain and e pect-in di erent results. y reapplyin t e same model for each revision, does the

Population i ision e pect its ne t projection to be any more reliable than t e last

Much faster fertility transitions are possible, if family planning and

small family norms are promoted along-side omen s ealt and ri ts. any developing countries have successfully achieved below-replacement or near-re-placement ertility in t is ay. n eac case, the abrupt start to fertility decline coincided with initiation of voluntary amily plannin pro rams. ates o ertil-

ity decline have been two to three times

t ose e pected in t e pro ections. It is fashionable these days to assert that the best way to reduce population growth is through poverty reduction or more education or irls. ut in t ese successful countries, no economic or educational tri er as e ident. n eac case economic development, including improvement in educational and health outcomes, followed later as a conse-

uence o lo er population ro t . omen s ealt social status and

economic autonomy were particularly ele ated.

ere is e ery reason to belie e t at t e remaining high-fertility countries could emulate t ese past successes. etter contraception technologies, commu-nications and better-educated com-munities could mean that new family planning programs are even more effec-ti e. or are suc inter entions costly a study estimated t at or e ery dollar spent in family planning, between t o and si dollars can be sa ed in interventions aimed at achieving other de elopment oals . et t is lo an -

in ruit remains i nored. ne narra-tive is urgently needed, to reinstate the importance of population policies and programs for human development and en ironmental sustainability.

ime is of the essence: each year action is deferred increases the

achievable peak population by around million people. ut i political ill

could be rallied uic ly enou per aps a pea around billion could yet be ac ie ed.

uc an outcome ould ease many challenges, particularly food security, cli-mate change mitigation and adaptation, and biodi ersity loss. t could ead o mass mortality on a scale humanity has ne er seen. ut first e a e to care

o many people t ere ill be.

Dr Jane O’Sullivan is the president of SPA’s Queensland branch.

i ure . y t e s popula-tion growth began to slow, with slightly fewer people added each year. ut rom it started rising again, apparently due to ne-glect of family planning programs ri t a is . e s medium projection assumes the fall will resume promptly. e actual in-crease, published annually in the Population Reference Bureau’s

orld Population ata eet as not complied.

Page 8 – Newsletter No. 125, September 2016

Surviving the

21st CenturyHumanity’s ten great challenges and how we can overcome them

by Julian Cribb

Springer, 2016, 255pp.

Review by Jenny Goldie

n in t e th edition of his masterwork, Systema Naturae,

edis botanist arl innaeus named our species Homo sapiens ise man .

id e set a trap or us id it ma e umanity o er confident sel satisfied

and “bulletproof against the mounting challenges that surround it as its numbers and demands on the planet multiply

ese mountin c allen es are certainly o er elmin . ccordin to author Julian Cribb, we face 10 major e istential ris s mass e tinction resource depletion; weapons of mass destruction; climate change; universal to icity ood crises population and urban e pansion pandemic disease dangerous new technologies; and self-delusion. ribb ar ues t at e s ould be renamed for we have lost that one ability that sets us apart from the other animals: to wisely envision the future, understand it and take precautions a ainst a bad outcome.

Perhaps we should be renamed Homo exterminans for driving so many other species to e tinction. r at about Homo eversor for degrading our waters, soils and orests o about Homo pistor t e ba er or coo in t e art t rou climate c an e en t ere s Homo veneficus for poisoning the planet it to ic c emicals. r per aps Homo devorans for devouring too many resources with our ever-burgeoning numbers.

Cribb devotes a chapter to each of t e problems t at con ront us. ad

he not suggested solutions at each chapter’s end, this reader could have been renamed Homo desperatio. e picture is rim. e ert eless as a distinguished science journalist and author, Cribb knows what he is talking about. e boo contains more t an

citations o rele ant scientific and aut oritati e sources. is deep understanding and appreciation of science underscores t is boo .

i nificantly it is dedicated to t e memory o ony c ic ael ose book Planetary Overload highlighted t e conse uences to uman ealt of ongoing degradation of Earth’s ecosystems; to Paul Ehrlich, whose

boo The Population Bomb first “brought human numbers into the debate on t e uman uture as e and is i e nne said later and to

ribb s randdau ter i ienne born earlier this year, “whose generation must face the daunting challenge of restorin our orld .

Human numbers and our overwhelming demands lie at the heart of most problems con rontin t e planet. ne telling graph shows human population and species e tinctions risin in concert. ccordin to Pro essor ic

ostrom o ord ni ersity s uture of Humanity Institute, the great bulk of e istential ris in t e oreseeable uture consists of risks arising from human acti ity. e most ob ious e ample is climate c an e. ccordin to ribb inaction on fossil fuels could lead to

o armin as occurred million years ago during the Palaeocene-

ocene ermal a imum associated it a ma or ipe out o ocean li e. armin o oC would mean the planet

can only support about 1 billion people, not t e current . billion let alone an anticipated or e en billion. n increase o oC would mean billions o people ill a e to mo e. otal polar melting would lead to a sea-level rise o metres dro nin not only ma or cities but all coastal ood bo ls.

at t en can e do to counter climate c an e ribb pulls no punc es. e must cease all burnin o ossil uels by replant and

reforest up to a third of the world’s landmass, and cease all subsidies to ossil uel industries immediately.

ut at o uman numbers Continued untrammeled population ro t is clearly untenable. t some

point e ill reac pea people but ill t e subse uent decline in our numbers be “gradual, managed and consensual – or catastrophic, like most ot er biolo ical collapses et us hope we will choose the former and voluntarily reduce our numbers to a sustainable billion or so. ribb e tols the virtues of women, saying they are already ma in t ose ise c oices by lo erin ertility in all societies.

ould t at it ere t e case in uba aran rica e oes on to ar ue

that if “women led the world, it would probably be astly less to ic ar less prone to climate change, hunger, war and en ironmental de astation . s Hillary Clinton’s likely presidency looms, let us indeed ope so.

is is an important boo . e others deal with so many confronting problems in an inte rated ay.

ope ully it ill ulfill its aim o elpin build the discussion about survival that

e a e to a e.

Jenny Goldie is a life member of SPA.

Book Review

Newsletter No. 125, September 2016 – Page 9

Our Renewable

Future: laying

the path for 100 per cent

clean energyBy Richard Heinberg

and David Fridley

Island Press, 2016, 248pp.

Review by Jenny Goldie

is is a boo about climate and energy; about how to wean ourselves o ossil uels and instead use renewable energy as a means of a oidin dan erous climate c an e.

at s t at to do it population you as ecause say t e aut ors population growth will make everything

arder. Population really is a climate and ener y issue.

a e ood production or instance. If more land is converted to produce biofuels to replace petrol and diesel, will there be enough land left to provide or a ro in population an e

substitute natural gas in the Haber-osc process o else do e find

su ficient nitro en ertiliser to ro enou ood

Co-author Richard Heinberg is well no n to ustainable Population ustralia. e brou t im out rom

t e or a national tour in . decade ago, Heinberg had written a number of books on energy, notably The Party’s Over but it as

is boo s The End of Growth and Peak Everything – that showed his grasp of economics and climate as ell as ener y. espite is entle unassuming nature, he is very much t e enaissance an.

Our Renewable Future not only indicates a thorough knowledge of energy issues but is written with absolute clarity. t is also dispassionate in its approach: neither starry-eyed

about the great progress wind and solar energy has made in recent years nor ignoring renewable energy’s shortcomings, intermittency being the prime one. e boo is completely

onest. t needs to be in t e and o every state and federal energy minister in the country as well as in that of the new federal Resources Minister Matt

ana an.

at t e aut ors are ad ocatin o course is a complete re olution.

ey ar ue t at e all must come to share the common understanding that climate change and our response to it constitute a wartime level of emergency, and that we all must cooperate to ard a common oal . ot only do we have to shift our electricity production away from coal and gas to renewables, we have to electrify the rest of our energy use, not least transport ic is dependent on oil.

ere are arious le els o di ficulty. e easy stu or ettin a

emission reduction in years involves replacing coal with solar and wind power for electricity generation; electrifying as much of our energy sector as we can; promoting electric cars, walking, bicycling, and public transport retrofittin buildin s or ener y e ficiency and increasin t e mar et s are o or anic local oods.

e arder stu or ac ie in an reduction in emissions, will involve substantial amounts of grid-level energy storage as well as a major grid overhaul; using energy to coincide

it solar and ind a ailability t is off-grid reviewer only vacuums on sunny days electri yin all motorised human transport; minimising trucking by e pandin rei t rail puttin sails or kites on ships; relocalising or deglobalising manufacturing; replacing ossil uel based materials suc as

plastics and recyclin nonrene able materials more completely.

e really ard stu to ac ie e t e final reduction ill not only re uire more researc and de elopment but si nificantly be a ioural c an e. e ill a e to redesign cement-making, for instance; build communication de ices e. . computers t at last a really lon time t en recycle t em confine a iation to a specialty transport mode; shrink global trade; and repair roads without oil based asp alt.

e in t e industrialised nations are oin to a e to use a lot less ener y. o more trips to ali sorry. top

buildin lar e ouses. ide a bi e. at locally ro n ood. usiness as usual is not an option. e may ultimately or o some t in s alto et er.

or t e least industrialised nations a pathway to secure food, water, education, electricity, transportation, communication, and health care must leapfrog fossil fuels and fuel-dependent in rastructure. olutions might include intermediate or appropriate technology as originally proposed by economist . .

c umac er in t e s.

e transition to a ully rene ableenergy society, ironically, will involve even greater use of fossil fuels to build t e in rastructure. ot t e ossil fuel and renewable industries will be competing for investment dollars at the very time economic growth is slowing and t ere is less to o around. ound government policy will be critical but, even if we’re lucky enough to have that, t e transition ill not be easy.

i ly recommend t is boo .

Book Review

Page 10 – Newsletter No. 125, September 2016

Branch reports

Queensland e branc as been busy runnin

stalls at t e uns ine oast orld n ironment ay esti al t e eo rap y eac ers ssociation o ueensland con erence and t e

Pea s to Points P P esti al amily ay. an s especially to nne ennoc

and ob aylor or elp it t ese.

a e t o tal s at t e con erence, titled ‘Living in the Anthropocene’ and ‘An ageing population: disaster or triump ot ere ery ell recei ed and the teachers voraciously collected our literature. ur ne s ort ui as been a great hit at these events, easy to hand out to passers-by who wouldn’t otherwise approach the stall, and usual-ly spar in surprised interest.

P s petition on orei n aid or amily planning was also an easy sell and reat con ersation starter at

and Anne had similar success with our carbon o sets pro ect yer at P P. Regarding the latter, Children by Choice reported that they have so far provided long-acting reversible contraceptives to

ulnerable omen usin unds rom the scheme, but were hoping to boost t e und to to start t e ne fi nancial year. o i you a en t yet donated, please consider offsetting your carbon ootprint at i e o givenow.com.au/cbccontraceptionandcarbon.

e continue to ollo ueensland s abortion-law-reform process, and a couple of members made submissions to t e re ie committee.

Our committee has also been working on strategies for engaging with youth, t an s to t e e orts o a id oyd.

ore stalls comin up in t e ne t month, so get in touch if you’d like to olunteer on t ese. or members in

ot er parts o ueensland i you ould li e to see P s presence at a community event in your area, we are happy to provide all the materials you will need to run a stall.

Jane O’Sullivan, branch president

Victoria-Tasmania e committee is busy plannin t e

branc on eptember. e are particularly e cited t at t e spea er ollo in t e ill be P illip utton

co-author of Climate Code Red and manager and strategist for Research and trate y or ransition nitiation. His presentation will cover alternatives to the growth economy and we are hon-oured that he has offered to speak with us on suc an important topic.

e committee ill be ostin t e fi rst social get-together for branch members on u ust it a casual dinner a ter

or . e call out or social e ents as received an enthusiastic response and

e are loo in or ard to fi nally catcing up with members in a less formal en ironment

I will be speaking at two conferences o er t e ne t mont at t e a e ities

on erence in elbourne on u ust and at the Regional Development Con-erence in anberra in early eptember.

e committee is also celebratin t e success o t e edical tudent on erence in late June to which I was invited to speak to a large audience of young students a demo rap ic t at P is een to connect it .

e are encoura ed by t e act t at letters and comments written by mem-bers are continually being published by the mainstream print media, which helps to keep the issue of population sustainability in t e public eye.

Michael Bayliss, branch president

Australian Capital Territoryur as eld on ay. e committee is ic are

president olin yons ice president ulia ic ards secretary a id en

nessey treasurer and re elany ince Patulny ic ael ompson

ristop er orman and eit ayers members . ter t e Pro essor uentin ra ton Public Policy ello a e a tal on ood and ater

security.

n une Pro essor an o e launc ed his new book The Lucky Country? Reinventing Australia at the ANU. capacity crowd attended including several Greens candidates in both the ederal and elections. ter ards

t e branc or anised a dinner in an s onour.

In the run-up to the federal election, t e branc too ad anta e o t e regulations to display roadside cor-

utes. ese eatured t e P lo o and an e ortation to slo population ro t preceded by eit er tra fi c

con estion or a ordable ousin ollo in an appeal by t e ational i

brary one o eac o t e cor utes ere donated to t eir arc i e.

n uly ic are a e a tal to t e ran enner oundation titled “A doomsayers guide to the logistic cur e . e rat er lar e Po erPoint presentation should be available on the net soon.

Colin Lyons, branch vice-president

South AustraliaOur branch has organised a series of meetings to provide an opportunity for members and riends o P to present and hear synopses of publications that they or others have found especially in uential in t eir t in in . ot e eryone is able to read and digest every important publication in a fi eld and a brief account and discussion helps e eryone to et up to speed. is series of meetings has been held on the last

ednesday o eac mont startin une in t e eminar oom o t e

onser ation ouncil ran lin t delaide at . pm. uture spea ers

include o n ons on t e nt ropocene eptember and Pro essor tep en

Lincoln, author of Challenged Earth: an overview of humanity’s stewardship of Eart ctober . spea er or

o ember is yet to be confi rmed.

Peter Marti n, branch president.

Newsletter No. 125, September 2016 – Page 11

World Population Day in six eye-popping charts

1. There are more young people today than at any other time in human history.

Source: UNFPA, 2015 estimates

2. About nine out of ten of these young people live in less developed countries.

Source: UNFPA, 2015 estimates

3. And half of these young people face alarming vulnerabilities – because they are girls.

Source: World Health Organization, 2016

4. In developing countries, one in every three girls is married before reaching age 18.

Source: UNFPA, 2016 estimates

5. Child marriage is often followed by pregnancy, even if a girl is not yet physically or mentally ready.

Source: UNFPA, 2015 estimates

6. But the solution to ending these human rights abuses is known: Empower girls.

Source: Education for All, 2015

Publis ed by t e nited ations Population und on uly at unfpa.org/WPD2016

Page 12 – Newsletter No. 125, September 2016

Website: www.population.org.au

e P ne sletter is publis ed uarterly in arc une eptember and ecember. embers are elcome

to submit material to the editor, to be published at the editor s discretion.

Membership applications and renewals should be done ia t e P ebsite or sent to t e national o fice. eneral

in uiries s ould also o to t e national o fice.

SPA national officeuccess ul lliances apier lose ea in

P o est ea in p one a email in o population.or .au

Newsletter editor and publications officer: tep en illiams editor population.or .au

SPA national office bearersPresident: andra anc presidentpopulation.or .au Vice-president: vacantCorrespondence secretary: David RobertsonMeetings secretary: ola te art meetin secretary population.or .au Treasurer: ob aylor treasurer population.or .auWebmaster: le eppert ebmaster population.or .auMembership officer: ndre erlei members ippopulation.or .auCommittee: John Coulter, ane ulli an onat an

iller artin yan.

Trustees of the Population Fundoss in sland u yndale iscoe enis aunders

Regional branches president ris pi e P ns

population.or .au president arry o en P a

population.or .au president ic ael ayliss ic population.or .au

president ic are P actpopulation.or .au

president ane ulli an P ld population.or .au

president Peter artin sa population.or .au

Disclaimer

ile e ery e ort as been made to ensure t e reliability of the information contained in this newsletter, the opinions e pressed are t ose o t e arious aut ors and do not necessarily re ect t e opinion o eit er P or t e editor.

About SPASandra’s snippets

Letter to ABC boardP e pects t at commercial media outlets are not oin

to be particularly accepting of our message, given that so much of their revenue comes via advertising from develop-ers. ut it no ested interests e e pect better o our

. et t ere appears to be ust as muc un illin ness from the ABC to talk about human population and its im-pacts as in t e commercial media. o it t e impetus o e ecuti e member o n oulter P as ritten to t e board asking to meet with it to discuss the important role the ABC could and should be playing in informing the public o t e problems besettin our planet. e response n impersonal email to advise that our letter has been sent to t e s udience and onsumer airs department o it is possible that the board might never be aware that we

a e ritten to it. ut e on t let t at appen. atc t is space.

Death of NSW member Corel Garling member orel arlin passed a ay early t is year.

Corel was active in the days of the Zero Population Growth mo ement o t e s and spo e to many roups about t e issue. e as also a re uent letter riter to ne spapers about population impacts. orel s amily as

onoured er it a be uest to P and e t an t em so muc or t at.

Australian Conservation Foundation onder o many P members are also members or supporters o t e ustralian onser ation oundation. you are, you would no doubt have been disappointed by the

uestions it as ed o political parties be ore t e recent ederal election. uman population and its impacts did

not ma e e en a cameo appearance. et most o t ese environmental issues are strong indicators of the nega-ti e impacts o population ro t . y do e need clean ener y y do e need to reconnect abitats y do

e need to eep t e urray o in ou can oin t e dots on t is so y can t t e t is all t e more perple in

en one considers t at in t e nominated popu-lation ro t as a biodi ersity t reat under t e P ct.

you are a member or supporter o t e you s ould let it know that its failure to address this issue now concerns you particularly as t at t reat as increased since .

s president o P ill certainly be doin so.

UNFCCC high-level champions’ road mapt t e P tal s in Paris late last year t e renc m-

bassador for Climate Change and the Moroccan Minister Delegate for the Environment were appointed ‘high-level c ampions . eir role as to prepare a roadmap or lobal climate action. roan es t e orld as not come ery ar en e are still dra in up t e map. o t eir

credit t ese t o omen a e done it in si mont s. s an accredited P as in ited to pro ide a submission in response to t eir dra t. P e ecuti e member ane ul-livan has done that on our behalf: it is on our website and a must read. t ocuses on t e crucial role amily plannin should play in mitigating climate change if the world really

ants to ac ie e a lo emissions scenario.