Patrick CoronadoShahid Habib

NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterGreenbelt, Maryland, USA

April 4th, 2011

NASA’s Role in

Direct Broadcast / Direct Readout

NOAA Direct Readout Conference

Contents

• Changing Planet

• Science and Applications

• Implementation Process

• Examples of using Global and Direct Broadcast Data Products

• Summary

Earth System Scienceand Applications

• Climate and weather variability can produce year-to-year swings in our economy of plus or minus $100 billion1

• Approximately 90% of presidentially declared disasters in the United States are weather-related1

• Weather affects aviation, air quality, health, ground and marine transportation, defense, agriculture, fisheries, water, energy, construction, tourism, and many other sectors of the economy – and most of these issues are regional.

• Our success depends on our ability to provide decision makers with reliable and convincing information.

1Data from “Satellite Observations of the Earth’s Environment. Accelerating the Transition of Research to Operations, NRC report, 2003

Earth’s Energy Balance

Increasing Carbon Dioxide

Malinkovich cycle attributed to Earth’s orbital anomalies

5 warmest years: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 20055 warmest years: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005

Measured Surface Temperature the past 150 yearsMeasured Surface Temperature the past 150 years

Every year we pump more than six billion tones of carbon emissions into the air from burning fossil fuel, despite a general consensus that this contributes directly to climate change.

Global Temperature VariabilitySir N. Stern report compares fossil-fuel Based / Climate-Friendly

Scenarios

Time to develop new technologies

Time for capital stock turnover

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns,

MT

C

+ 3º to 5º CFOSSIL FUEL SCENARIO

+ 1º to 2.5º CCLIMATE FRIENDLY SCENARIO

Temp increase by 2100

Ref: Dr. Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard Ref: Dr. Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard World Bank World Bank

Monthly Arctic Sea Ice Extent DeviationsNovember 1978 – December 2004

Aqua/AMSRE Measurement

Reference: IPCC February 2007 and BBC

• It is very likely that human activities are causing global warming– Probable temperature rise

by the end of the century will be between 1.8C and 4C (3.2 - 7.2F)

– Possible temperature rise by the end of the century ranges between 1.1C and 6.4C (2 - 11.5F)

• Sea levels are likely to rise by 28.43cm

• Arctic summer sea ice is likely to disappear in second half of the century

• It is very likely that parts of the world will see an increase in the number of heat waves

• Climate change is likely to lead to increased intensity of tropical storms

IPCC Report

Global Change: One of the Greatest Challenges of Our Time

Natural Disasters

Public HealthClimate

Water Managemen

t

Weather

Ecosystems

Agriculture

Air Quality

Earth Science and Applications Themes

•Water and Energy Cycle•Atmospheric Composition•Carbon Cycle and Ecosystem•Climate Variability and Change•Weather•Earth Surface and Interior

Science Areas

Application Areas

• Understand changing Earth• Learn causes of these

changes• Response to such changes• Impact of such changes• Predict such changes ???

Unknowns

Occurrence of Floods

Contaminated Fresh Water

Supply

Spread of Multiple

Infectious Diseases

Volcanic Eruption

Aerosol and Dust deposition and suspension

Breathing problems

Do we have a choice? A tangled web

Air Quality

Public Health

Earthquake/Tsunami

FiresSevere

Weather Electric Grid

Outages Shutdown CityAnthropogenic or

Technological

Agriculture Efficiency

Develop technologies to

enable the measurements

Develop technologies to

enable the measurements

Develop algorithms and models to

interpret the results

Develop algorithms and models to

interpret the results

Research, Technology & Application Process

Reformulate scientific questions Readjust research priorities

Refine measurement requirements

Reformulate scientific questions Readjust research priorities

Refine measurement requirements

Improve Understanding, Increase Prediction

Capabilities and apply for societal benefits

Improve Understanding, Increase Prediction

Capabilities and apply for societal benefits

Develop scientific questionsDefine geophysical variables to

be measured

Develop scientific questionsDefine geophysical variables to

be measured

Res

earc

h L

oo

p

Landsat-7

Terra Aqua

TRMMAura

QuikScat

End User/Decision

Maker

MODELS

Remote Sensing Missions

Applied Research Domain

Science and Research Products

User Specific Operational Products

GMAO Atmosphere

GSFC GOCART

         

GISS Model III

Ben

efits

Push Pull

Research to Application – R2A

Partnership

Earth Science Applications - Partnerships

• We partner with operational end users to adapt or adopt and demonstrate NASA research results for societal benefits

NOAA International Red CrossDHS BoR

DoD Chesapeake Bay ProgramEPA EPRIUSAID World Bank

USFS GEOSeveral International Organizations

Public agencies and organizations that have the mandate to serve the public through resource management, environmentally-related predictions and decision making

Information KnowledgeReception of intelligence

Understanding of a science, art or technique

Models

Archived global observations or data sets provide necessary

• In situ data• Airborne data• Historical data• Near Real Time Local

observations (if available)

Region of InterestMeso-sacle models

Regional Observations

Boundary Conditions

Problem Solving

Develop Solutions

Observations Research Driven

We make use of several sensors – Sensor Web

•Terra

•Aqua

•Aura

•TRMM

•LandSat

•EO-1

•GRACE

•ACE

•SOHO

Malaria

Rift Valley Fever

Food Security

River Forecasting

Floods/Land Slides

Air Quality

Plume Trajectory

Ground Circulating Currents

…..

……

Earthquake precursor

Transcontinental Dust Storms

Taklamakan Desert, China

Beijing, China

TOMS Aerosol Index - time series

“2001 Perfect Dust Storm”

Asian Dust & microbes? Long Range Transport Source Regions

Dust Front

AIR NOW– Adapting MODIS Aerosol Data

NASA-LaRC/USEPA Air QualityApplications Group

Relate MODIS AODobservations (red dots)to EPA ground station PMmeasurements (black time series)

Evaluate current EPA observational network (posts) as to its ability to show regional aerosol

Using MODIS DB for regional air quality assessment

Finding correlation between MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOD) and EPA ground based measurements

Remer/GSFC

South Africa’s Fire Early Warning System

NASA’s Terraand Aqua

Direct BroadcastReceiving StationSatellite Application Centre (SAC)South Africa

GeoDatabase

Advanced Fire Information System

(AFIS) http://wamis.co.za

Rapid Response SystemSAC(CSIR)

MODIS Fire-Algorithm

ESA’sMSG

Direct BroadcastReceiving StationNational Weather ServiceSouth Africa

Weather Service, South Africa MSG Fire-Algorithm (Philip Frost)

Active Fire Locations(Text files)

University of Maryland

SAC

GeoDatabase Web Fire Mapper

(http://maps.geog.umd.edu)

Real-time feed

Web Fire Mapper maps.geog.umd.edu

Rapid Response SystemSMS/Text messages

ESKOMESKOM

Disaster Management Unit

Disaster Management Unit

Weather ServiceWeather Service

Forest DepartmentForest Department

E-mail Alerts

End users

Polar Orbit

Geostationary

2-Year Prediction of Malaria Cases Based on Environmental Parameters (temperature, precipitation, humidity, vegetation index)

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Num

ber

of P

f & P

v C

ases

1251007550250Month Number

Pf casesTemperature (deg C) x 100Rainfall (mm) x 5 + 1000

Tak

Satellite Vegetation Data used for

Insecticide Planning

Mekong Malaria in Tak, Thailand

• Vector Habitat • Transmission • Risk Prediction

• Surface Hydrology • Climate Prediction

Field data

Aqua

TRMM

TerraLandsat

Kiang/GSFC

• Increased frequency of harmful algal blooms or HABs is documented worldwide

• Primary goal of current research: Detect these phenomena and determine potential linkages to human activities, such as enhanced nutrient inputs in coastal waters

Detection of Harmful Algal BloomsDetection of Harmful Algal Blooms

Steven E. Lohrenz (Univ. of Southern Miss.)

Red Tide Bloom off West Florida

SeaWiFS Satellite Image Showing Drifter Track During HAB Event

Summary

• We must conduct Science for Society -- Applications• Majority of the societal problems are regional in nature• Source or cause may be far from the area under study• Both long term data sets play a vital role in establishing boundary

conditions• Direct Readout offers an excellent source for investigating regional or

meso-scale problems• Direct Readout provides a great opportunity to many nations where large

space investments may not be easily achievable• It is an essential capability for World community to build capacity and

apply space observations for societal benefits