Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to...
Transcript of Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to...
![Page 1: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Houston Economic Outlook
Patrick Jankowski
![Page 2: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
www.houston.org
![Page 3: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Follow me on Twitter @pnjankowski
![Page 4: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
May 22
10:30 a.m.
Hilton Post Oak
![Page 5: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
It’s not Christmas but . . .
![Page 6: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
It’s not Christmas but . . .
Population Estimates
Revised Employment Data
![Page 7: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Rank Metro Area Population as of 7/1/16 Change since 7/1/15
1 New York 20,153,634 35,571
2 Los Angeles 13,310,447 41,619
3 Chicago 9,512,999 (19,570)
4 Dallas-Fort Worth 7,233,323 143,435
5 Houston 6,772,470 125,005
6 Washington, D.C. 6,131,977 53,508
7 Philadelphia 6,070,500 8,197
8 Miami 6,066,387 64,670
9 Atlanta 5,789,700 90,650
10 Boston 4,794,447 27,692
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
10 Most Populous Metro Areas
![Page 8: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Births 102,152
Deaths -40,536
Natural Increase 61,616
Net International1 35,000
Net Domestic +28,090
Net In-Migration 63,090
Total2 125,0051 Includes U.S. and foreign-born populations.2 Does not sum due to rounding and other effects.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Components of Growth, 7/15 – 7/16
![Page 9: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Births 102,152
Deaths -40,536
Net Natural Increase 61,616
In-Migration
International 35,000
Domestic 28,090
In-Migration 63,090
Total2 125,0051 Includes U.S. and foreign-born populations.2 Does not sum due to rounding and other effects.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Components of Growth, 7/15 – 7/16
![Page 10: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Births 102,152
Deaths -40,536
Natural Increase 61,616
In-Migration
International 35,000
Domestic 28,090
In-Migration 63,090
Total2 125,0051 Includes U.S. and foreign-born populations.2 Does not sum due to rounding and other effects.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Components of Growth, 7/15 – 7/16
![Page 11: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Metro Area Net Growth
Houston 851,971
Dallas-Fort Worth 807,082
New York 587,163
Atlanta 502,975
Miami 500,089
Washington 495,561
Los Angeles 481,486
Boston 241,852
Philadelphia 104,838
Chicago 51,449
Long-Term Growth, 7/10 – 7/16
Current Metro Populations
Baton Rouge, LA = 835,175
New Haven, CT = 856,875
![Page 12: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Metro Area---------- Net Migration ----------
Total International Domestic
Houston 476,857 193,618 283,239
Dallas-Fort Worth 444,944 140,476 304,468
New York -53,912 848,704 -902,616
Atlanta 257,589 104,223 153,366
Miami 374,706 381,468 -6,762
Washington 199,276 245,540 -46,264
Los Angeles -57,111 315,879 -372,990
Boston 145,718 182,201 -36,483
Philadelphia -4,729 123,139 -127,868
Chicago -260,662 148,505 -409,167
Components of Growth, 7/10 – 7/16
![Page 13: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Metro Area Net Change Vital Events Net Migration
Houston 851,971 372,983 476,857
Dallas-Fort Worth 807,082 357,825 444,944
New York 587,163 671,717 -53,912
Atlanta 502,975 241,489 257,589
Miami 500,089 120,947 374,706
Washington 495,561 297,395 199,276
Los Angeles 481,486 554,435 -57,111
Boston 241,852 103,093 145,718
Philadelphia 104,838 115,420 -4,729
Chicago 51,449 321,530 -260,662
Components of Growth, 7/10 – 7/16
Vital Events = Births minus Deaths
![Page 14: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Payroll Employment
![Page 15: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
91.0
21.3
-110.5
50.3
83.1
118.8
90.4
118.2
0.2
18.7
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Houston Job Growth, Dec – Dec (000s)
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
![Page 16: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
118.2
0.2
18.7
'14 '15 '16
Houston Job Growth, Dec – Dec (000s)
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
![Page 17: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
SectorJobs Lost
Dec ’14 – Dec ’16 %
Exploration & Production -11,000 -18.7%
Oil Field Services -19,900 -35.6
Fabricated Metal Products -18,700 -28.2
Machinery Manufacturing 20,600 -30.4
Engineering -10,900 -14.3
Total Losses -81,100 -25.5%Source: Texas Workforce Commission
17
Energy Losses
![Page 18: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
SectorJobs Gained
Dec ’14 – Dec ’16%
Leisure & Hospitality 25,800 9.0%
Health Care 23,000 7.5
Public Education (state & local) 17,000 6.9
Retail Trade 10,900 3.5
Financial Activities 6,000 4.0
Total Gains +82,700
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
18
Non-Energy Gains
![Page 19: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17
Job
s (
00
0s)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
12-Month Running Totals
Energy Jobs Total Jobs Non-Energy Jobs
19
Metro Houston Employment
![Page 20: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Winners $ Wages
Leisure & Hospitality $22,800
Health Care 54,800
Public Education (state & local) 47,800
Retail Trade 32,400
Financial Activities 89,100
20
Average Annual Wage
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Losers $ Wages
Exploration & Production $192,000
Oil Field Services 121,000
Fabricated Metal Products 71,700
Machinery Manufacturing 95,524
Engineering 106,000
Biggest Winners and Losers
![Page 21: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
$188.4 $186.7
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
Q1/10 Q1/11 Q1/12 Q1/13 Q1/14 Q1/15 Q1/16 Q1/17
$ B
illio
ns
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $
Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers
![Page 22: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
The worst is over.
![Page 23: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15 Dec '15 Jun '16 Dec '16 Jun '17
$ P
er
Ba
rre
l
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
23
NYMEX WTI Spot Price
Feb 11, 2016 $26.19/barrel
![Page 24: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15 Dec '15 Jun '16 Dec '16 Jun '17
Wo
rkin
g R
igs
Source: Baker Hughes
24
U.S. Rig Count
May 27, 2016 404 Rigs
![Page 25: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Above 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = Contraction
25
Purchasing Managers Index
Source: Institute for Supply Management- Houston
![Page 26: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Regional Employment, Net Change
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
'14 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '15 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '16 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '17 Mar May
Job
s, 0
00
s
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
12-Month Running Totals
August 2016 - 3,800 jobs
![Page 27: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Regional Employment, Net Change
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
'14 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '15 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '16 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '17
Job
s, 0
00
s
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
12-Month Running Totals
![Page 28: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
Three sectors to
cut jobs in ’17.
![Page 29: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
Lost Money Earned a Profit
![Page 30: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Energy
Still restructuring
No hiring when losing money
- 3,500 jobs
30
![Page 31: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
$ B
illio
ns
Source: Dodge Data and Analytics
12-Month Moving Total
31
Construction Starts, Metro Area
![Page 32: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
$ B
illio
ns
Source: Dodge Data and Analytics
12-Month Moving Total
32
Construction Starts, Metro Area
![Page 33: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Petrochem
Office
Industrial
Residential
Health care
Government
33
- 16,000 jobs
Construction Employment
![Page 34: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Information
Long-term decline
continues
- 200 jobs
34
![Page 35: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35
Where will job
growth come
from?
![Page 36: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
'81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
36
Annual Change, Houston MSA Population
![Page 37: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
2.8
0.8
3.1
4.0
-1.2
4.0
5.0
2.32.0
2.6
2.0
0.9 0.8
1.4
3.5
2.1
0.7
Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis * seasonally and inflation adjusted
% Change from Preceding Quarter*
37
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
![Page 38: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan '14 Apr '14 Jul '14 Oct '14 Jan '15 Apr '15 Jul '15 Oct '15 Jan '16 Apr '16 Jul '16 Oct '16 Jan '17 Apr '17
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jobs Added (000s)
38
U.S. Employment
![Page 39: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Growth Forecasts, Year-Over-Year Percent Change
’16 ’17 ’18
Global Economy 3.0% 3.1% 3.3%
Advanced Economies 1.8 2.0 2.3
United States 1.6 2.0 2.3
Eurozone 1.7 1.8 2.0
United Kingdom 1.8 1.8 1.8
Japan 1.0 1.1 0.9
Korea 2.7 2.5 2.6
Developing Economies 4.2 4.1 4.3
China 6.7 6.3 5.8
India 7.8 7.0 7.0
Mexico 2.3 -1.0 1.6
Brazil 3.6 0.7 2.7
Source: Wells Fargo Securities
39
Global Growth Forecasts
![Page 40: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Imports
$104.1 Billion
64%
Exports,
$58.1 Billion
36%
’06
40
Houston’s Foreign Trade
Imports
$69.8 Billion
43%
Exports
$93.0 Billion
57%
'16
![Page 41: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
41
Health Care
![Page 42: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
'90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Jobs, 000s
42
Houston Health Care Employment
![Page 43: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
11.09.7
8.8
7.38.1
7.2 7.6
6.1 6.2
16.9
15.114.0 13.7
12.2
10.6 10.4 10.49.4
Philadelphia New York Minneapolis Los Angeles Phoenix Dallas HOUSTON Atanta Washington
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
'90 '15
43
Health Care as % of Total Employment
![Page 44: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
44
Health Care
+ 9,800 Jobs
![Page 45: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
45
Hotels,
Restaurants and
Bars
![Page 46: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
7,184 7,4648,023 8,082 8,353 8,677 8,950 9,342 9,619 9,939 10,217 10,627
Q2/05 Q2/06 Q2/07 Q2/08 Q2/09 Q2/10 Q2/11 Q2/12 Q2/13 Q2/14 Q2/15 Q2/16
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Houston Area Bars and Restaurants
46
![Page 47: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
47
Hotels,
Restaurants and
Bars
+ 8,700 Jobs
![Page 48: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
48
Government
![Page 49: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Tota
l Em
plo
yme
nt, 0
00
,00
0s
Go
ve
rnm
en
t E
mp
loym
en
t, 0
00
s
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Government Employment Metro Population
49
Metro Employment
![Page 50: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
50
Government
+ 6,200 jobs
![Page 51: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
51
Retail
![Page 52: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
-7.7
6.3
8.6
5.54.2
1.1
7.5 7.99.6
3.5
-3.7-2.7
-4.9
2.5
8.8
2.1
12.2
0.4
-7.2
6.47.6
8.47.2
4.7 4.32.9
'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Source: U.S. Bureau Labor Statistics
Annual Change, 000s
52
Metro Retail Employment
![Page 53: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
53
Retail
+ 4,500 Jobs
![Page 54: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
54
Manufacturing
![Page 55: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
$8.3
$22.7
$5.0$4.0
$3.0$2.0
'16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
Source: Institute for Regional Forecasting
Value, Billions
55
Local Chemical Plant Completions
![Page 56: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
56
Manufacturing
+ 3,000 Jobs
![Page 57: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
9,800
8,700
6,200
4,9004,500
3,0002,400 2,400 2,200 2,100
1,100 1,100 1,000
57
’17 Metro Employment Forecast
Construction -16,000
Energy -3,500
Information -200
![Page 58: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
58
’17 Metro Employment Forecast
+ 29,700 Jobs
![Page 59: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
-8.1
17.6
44.853.2 56.8 52.7
106.292.6
18.0
60.0
1.4
-1.2-11.7
39.3
91.4106.9
91.0
21.3
-110.5
50.3
83.1
118.8
90.4
118.2
0.2
18.729.7
'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
December to December, (000s)
Historic Job Growth
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
![Page 60: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
60
Rules of Thumb, Guestimates and Theorems
![Page 61: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
61
The Yahtzee Rule for
Measuring Houston
Growth
![Page 62: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
62
Houston wins when
we roll sixes.
![Page 63: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
63
Houston wins when
we roll sixes.$60 oil
![Page 64: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
64
Houston wins when
we roll sixes.$60 oil 60,000 jobs
![Page 65: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
65
Houston wins when
we roll sixes.$60 oil 60,000 jobs
60,000
relocations
![Page 66: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
66
Houston wins when
we roll sixes.$60 oil 60,000 jobs
60,000
relocations 60 MPH
![Page 67: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
67
Thank you
![Page 68: Patrick Jankowski · 2017-05-10 · 4-Qtr Moving Total, ’06 Constant $ Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers. 22. The worst is over. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ... Brazil 3.6 0.7](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022043015/5f3822b27bc4bb3bab79c8ed/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Houston Economic OutlookPatrick Jankowski