IOC contributions to a Global Tsunami EWS and other ocean generated hazards

Symposium on Multi-hazard EWS for Integrated Disaster Risk Management Geneva, 23 May 2006Patricio A. Bernal, Executive Secretary of IOC

Plate TectonicsGFZ, Potsdam

Distribution of Large Earthquakes and Earthquakes Accompanied with Tsunami

Tsunami probability based on historic data F. Schindele, CEA

1965: IOC established the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific Ocean (PTWS) following th valdivia (1960) and Alaska (1964) tsunamis

28 member States (2005):Australia, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, DemocraticPeople's Republic of Korea, Ecuador, El Salvador, Fiji, France,Guatemala, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Singapore, Thailand, United States, Samoa.

Successful Operational Tsunami Warning System > 40 yrsWell recognised international scientific programPacific Basin monitoring of seismicity and sea levelsDirect humanitarian aimMitigate tsunami effects - save lives/property

IOC ICG/PTWS

After the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and immediate response of the UN and GovernmentsMarch & April 2005: Two International Coordination meetings (Paris and Mauritius) for the Development of an Indian Ocean TWS

June 21-30, 2005: the 23rd IOC Assembly approved resolutions for the establishment of a global strategy and three regional Intergovernmental Coordination Groups on TEWS (XXIII-12 to XXXIII-15) for

the Indian Ocean (ICG/IOTWS) the Caribbean (ICG/CARIBE-EWS) the NE Atlantic and Mediterranean (ICG/NEAMTWS)

Global and Regional Tsunami Warning CentersICG/IOTWSPTWCNWPTACWC/ATWCICG/NEAMTWSSWP-TWSICG/CA

http://ioc3.unesco.org/Indotsunami/

IO initial System for July 2006Based on Existing: Network of 26(29) National Information Centres [24/7]Fast Track implementations of projects to upgrade existing seismographic network improve existing sea-level network (key stations with 1min data transmission interval) upgrade data and information communication system

Agreed Seismographic Stations

The Challenge for the IOWe essentially know what is needed at the country level in 16 countries and this work will be completed in 2006 for the rest.ICG/IOTWS is requesting a comprehensive Plan, incl. the country levelthe need of the development of the National Plans

Necessary Elements for Determination of Earthquake Location and MagnitudeArrival Time of Seismic Waves (P and/or S waves)Location (Latitude, Longitude and Depth)Maximum Amplitude of Seismic WavesMagnitudeP arrivalS arrivalMaximum AmplitudeSeismic Wave

LISS/IRIS Waveforms: Large Earthquake5minutesdata lossdata lossThere are about 20~30% stations JMA could not receive complete waveform data.SAMLTRQARCBRDWPFBBSRPTCNWVTStation MapPSPSPSPPPPChile M7.8, July 13, 2005

Early DetectionJMA could receive complete waveform data from almost all stations.Station MapPPSPPPPCTBTO/IMS WaveformsChile M7.8, July 13, 2005

AverageInternet82.14%CTBTO/IMS99.67%Data Availability

Graph1

12.22222222220

00

1.11111111110

7.77777777780

25.55555555560

53.3333333333100

LISS,IRIS

CTBTO/IMS

Data Availabilty (%)

percentage

Data Availability (July 1,2005 ~ July 6, 2005)

20050701

AFI30.9897.8410098.3596.8996.73100AVERAGEAFI88.68dataLISS,IRISLISS,IRISCTBTO

ANMO99.8999.9410010097.4498.17100ANMO99.350080.0879120879000

ANTO99.9799.6299.9799.9297.2898.1999.92ANTO99.27200-2010.01052631582000

BBSR10099.9710010097.4498.2100BBSR99.374020-40004000

BILL98.3799.9299.6899.9597.3249.5678.33BILL89.026040-6020.02105263166000

CASY99.9699.9499.8999.9591.0398.1899.95CASY98.418060-8080.08791208798000

CCM99.9799.3510099.9796.5197.3699.9CCM99.0110080-100710.780219780210081

COLA99.9299.8899.8499.8497.3397.9299.6COLA99.19

COR79.0699.3610094.1170.6176.9699.97COR88.58

CTAO99.9699.9710010097.4498.1999.98CTAO99.36

DGAR97.16100.0299.7710097.5345.7691.72DGAR90.28

DWPF87.4699.4895.7697.197.4494.78100DWPF96.00

GNI22.5299.7810099.6797.3498.1497.34GNI87.83

GUMO96.5299.9810010095.0775.88100GUMO95.35

HNR29.6610010099.0297.3992.299.96HNR88.32

HRV99.7399.7410099.6797.3398.1599.91HRV99.22

INCN99.83100.1999.9899.6397.3998.1499.94INCN99.30

JOHN7.6918.1900000JOHN3.70

KBS99.8299.7510099.7483.3398.167.59KBS84.06

KIP99.999.96100100.0297.3498.1899.96KIP99.34

KMBO57.2599.7910097.4997.3598.1899.97KMBO92.86

KONO99.6399.7699.9499.6797.3298.1799.87KONO99.19

LSZ4.7699.1710094.6397.4298.299.91LSZ84.87

LVC48.3597.599.8799.9497.396.7432.91LVC81.80

MA299.8199.799.8799.997.2798.1599.83MA299.22

MAJO99.8299.784.8235.3597.3398.1499.9MAJO76.45

MBWA99.81100.04100100.297.3998.299.92MBWA99.37

MIDW99.8599.9510099.8997.3798.1999.93MIDW99.31

NWAO99.8399.9310099.6797.398.299.97NWAO99.27

OTAV99.59100.0110099.2997.3320.120OTAV73.76

PALK90.52100.0999.6299.9897.3945.7689.19PALK88.94

PAYG99.4899.7110010097.4490.2899.39PAYG98.04

PET99.4599.710099.9697.3998.1799.04PET99.10

PMG36.54100.0510098.9197.4498.2899.04PMG90.04

PMSA99.3299.5199.9299.997.3698.2198.88PMSA99.01

POHA99.4899.5410099.8997.4798.1798.93POHA99.07

PTCN99.4299.7210099.8997.4298.198.83PTCN99.05

QSPA47.8648.4348.3947.9546.0946.2348.67QSPA47.66LISS,IRIS82.14%

RAO61.5899.9410097.6697.4598.4199.12RAO93.45CTBTO%

RAR6299.8610098.9997.4498.0799.01RAR93.62

RCBR99.464.7769.0292.0897.4697.1499.29RCBR88.45

RSSD99.3799.9199.9399.8493.5293.5499.24RSSD97.91

SAML95.7794.9797.2399.8896.6268.6951.49SAML86.38

SBA0000000SBA0.00

SDV55.7999.8499.9899.8697.3895.443.78SDV78.87

SJG99.4299.4599.9799.9183.3747.1897.71SJG89.57

SNZO99.7100.0199.8699.9297.4798.21100SNZO99.31

TATO99.7499.86100.0299.9297.4598.09100TATO99.30LISS,IRISCTBTO/IMS

TAU87.7299.9799.3799.9297.4945.7595.79TAU89.430-501112.22222222220

TEIG59.5299.9599.9399.9697.4198.1100TEIG93.5550-60000

TIXI66.5385.7985.6578.1476.0674.3748.09TIXI73.525060-7011.11111111110

TRIS62.86100.0199.9999.9197.4598.0699.98TRIS94.046070-8077.77777777780

TRQA99.6699.8199.8799.8729.8890.52100TRQA88.527080-902325.55555555560

TSUM59.8799.7274.5589.5597.4698.15100TSUM88.478090-1004853.3333333333100

TUC99.5599.4299.7899.6997.1997.9799.83TUC99.0690

ULN99.4799.6799.9399.9294.9598.299.93ULN98.87100

WAKE99.6899.67100.0399.9297.4697.98100WAKE99.25

WCI0000000WCI0.00

WVT58.1998.5399.7399.997.3496.9599.46WVT92.87

YAK97.799.7399.9299.5997.3897.8599.98YAK98.88

YSS99.6899.899.9299.8297.3898.0299.79YSS99.20

AAK30.0999.3799.2481.5896.1545.7182.02AAK76.31

BFO68.66100.2499.62100.0297.4545.8698.04BFO87.13

BORG0000000BORG0.00

BRVK0000000BRVK0.00

CMLA0000000CMLA0.00

ESK82.02100.0699.78100.0297.4640.8696.67ESK88.12

FFC5299.6299.24100.0497.4845.8115.43FFC72.80

JTS77.29100.28100.1298.8592.3745.880JTS73.54

KDAK88.94100.1999.23100.0597.5245.8291.61KDAK89.05

KIV80.319.6640.3888.267.3600KIV40.84

KURK0000000KURK0.00

LVZ0000000LVZ0.00

MBAR70.7999.9299.599.9597.6745.7988.79MBAR86.06

NNA77.5942.3798.8498.5192.561.3423.68NNA62.13

OBN86.38100.1999.499.997.4845.5697.38OBN89.47

PFO90.82100.1699.3699.8997.4445.792.04PFO89.34

RPN0000000RPN0.00

SUR90.6499.7298.9999.9597.3445.6388.05SUR88.62

WRAB90.97100.0899.7199.9897.4113.4487.13WRAB84.10

KKM99.699.999.8699.9297.599.2100KKM99.43

KSM99.4999.9299.8899.9597.599.06100KSM99.40

KULM99.5899.8999.9199.9697.5299.1199.98KULM99.42

NACB99.4197.7799.8699.8497.5498.94100NACB99.05

TWGB99.499.799.8999.8597.5399.02100TWGB99.34

TPUB99.3799.799.8799.8797.5598.97100TPUB99.33

SSLB99.4199.7299.8599.9297.5499100SSLB99.35

KMNB99.3999.8199.8699.997.5299.02100KMNB99.36

YULB94.1697.9299.8699.8897.5197.42100YULB98.11

YHNB99.4199.7299.8899.997.5599.08100YHNB99.36

CTBTOCMAR99.30

ILAR99.36

KMBO99.96

LPAZ99.83

PMG99.70

STKA99.86

SUR99.56

USHA99.8299.67

20050701

00

00

00

00

00

00

LISS,IRIS

CTBTO

(7/17/7)

LISS,IRIS

CTBTO

(2005/07/012005/07/07)

Data Transmission Delay CTBTO/IMS : 30 seconds at most LISS :100 seconds on average IRIS :180 seconds on average

Graph1

00

0.1702127660.8181818182

0.21276595740

0.14893617020

0.03191489360

0.0851063830

0.05319148940

0.03191489360

00

00

0.01063829790

0.25531914890.1818181818

LISS,IRIS

CTBTO

Graph2

00

027.2727272727

054.5454545455

1.09890109890

16.48351648350

12.08791208790

6.59340659340

12.08791208790

3.29670329670

2.19780219780

1.09890109890

3.29670329670

5.49450549450

1.09890109890

4.39560439560

2.19780219780

1.09890109890

00

00

00

00

27.4725274725018.1818181818

LISS,IRIS

CTBTO/IMS

CTBTO/IMS(under upgrading)

delay (sec)

percentage

05080814

ADK3800LISS,IRISCTBTO %

AFI90.05300000.00%

ANMO1126030160.1702127660.8181818182.00%

ANTO469060200.2127659574017.02%

BBSR5512090140.1489361702038.30%

BILL5215012030.0319148936053.19%

CASY5018015080.085106383056.38%

CCM9521018050.0531914894064.89%

COCO38024021030.0319148936070.21%

COLA5827024000073.40%

COR7030027000073.40%

CTAO7033030010.0106382979073.40%

DGAR109330240.25531914890.1818181818

DWPF38094

GNI92

GUMO53

HKT3800LISS,IRISCTBTO/IMS

HNR68150000

HRV56.3301503027.2727272727

JOHN380453006054.5454545455

KBS82.7604511.09890109890

KIP62.1575601516.48351648350

KMBO4190751112.08791208790

KONO671059066.59340659340

LSZ791201051112.08791208790

LVC90.113512033.29670329670

MA213115013522.19780219780

MBWA8316515011.09890109890

MIDW9518016533.29670329670

MSKU38019518055.49450549450

NWAO10221019511.09890109890

OTAV38022521044.39560439560

PALK22524022522.19780219780

PAYG38025524011.09890109890

PET62270255000

PMG51285270000

PMSA67300285000

POHA380300000

PTCN57.125227.4725274725018.1818181818

PTGA380300

QSPA68

RAO60

RAR52

RCBR46

RSSD61

SAML78

SBA380

SDV58

SJG380

SNZO45.1

SSPA380

TAU158

TEIG380

TIXI380

TRIS70.05

TRQA187

TSUM82

TUC95.15

ULN380

WAKE87

WCI94

WVT108

YAK91.85

YSS101

AAK239

ARU380

ASCN179

BFO380

BORG178

BRVK197

CMLA125

ESK201

FFC380

HOPE380

JTS221

KDAK177

KIV380

KURK169

KWAJ178

LVZ380

MBAR308

NNA206

OBN205

PFO157

RPN102

SUR154

TLY380

WRAB136

GRFO380

KEV54

SFJD73

118.7507142857

IRIS190.666666666762.1544415402

LISS103.195370370491.7561806721

Earthquake Detection and DelayLPAZ (Earliest CTBTO/IMS station)Earthquake Detection at JMA(30 seconds delay)Earthquake Detection at JMA(100 seconds delay)Seismic wave arrived at the CTBTO/IMS earliest station 110 seconds earlier than at LISS earliest station.JMA could detect the earthquakeby the CTBTO/IMS station 180 seconds earlier than by the LISS station.SAML (Earliest LISS station)Chile M7.8, July 13, 2005

Depth Error Estimated HypocenterInternet(LISS,IRIS)Internet(LISS,IRIS)+CTBTO/IMSDepth Error (km)

Horizontal Error Estimated HypocenterInternet(LISS,IRIS)Internet(LISS,IRIS)+CTBTO/IMSNear Sumatra Islands

Horizontal Error Estimated HypocenterInternet(LISS,IRIS)Internet(LISS,IRIS)+CTBTO/IMSNear Chile (Southern America)

IOC contributions to monitoring other Hazards of ocean originStorm surges, JCOMM (IOC WMO)Tropical storms, JCOMMImproving Storm and cyclones tracking and landing forecasts, JCOMMExtreme ocean wave weather (36 72 hours forecastsIce Hazard, JCOMMOil Spills tracking and landing, IOC, WMO, UNEPRed Tides, IOC, FAO, WHO

Development of Interoperable Regional EWS.03-05 Aug 2005: ICG/IOTWS-I, Perth21-22 Nov 2005: ICG/NEAMTWS-I, Rome14-16 Dec 2005: ICG/IOTWS-II, Hyderabad10-12 Jan 2006: ICG/CARTWS-I, Barbados1-5 May 2006: ICG/ITSU-XXI, Melbourne22-24 May 2006: ICG/NEAMTWS-II, Nice and to come:31 July-2 August 2006: ICG/IOTWS-III, BaliDec 2006: ICG/CARTWS-II, VenezuelaGlobal IntegrationApply synergies and cost-efficiency into the development of a single global meta-system24 of June 2006: Global Multi-hazard meeting in Paris, Ad-hoc WG on the framework for a Global Tsunami and other Ocean-related Hazards Early Warning System. IOC Strategy and implementation

For further information see:

http://www.ioc-goos.org/http://ioc.unesco.org/indotsunamihttp://ioc3.unesco.org/neamtwshttp://ioc3.unesco.org/cartws http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic

Before reporting the results of the experiment, I would like to review earthquakes, tsunamis and tsunami warning.

This figure shows the distribution of large earthquakes with magnitude 6 or greater and earthquakes which generated tsunamis. A lot of earthquakes with tsunami occurred in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean region. You may have already noticed that tsunamis had occurred in almost all oceans and seas, for example, the Atlantic Ocean. And you have to remind the fact that tsunami will propagate long distance with its huge energy.

Feb 28 1969M7.3Reverse type fault. Tsunami with maximum amplitude 1m attacked coast of PortugalFeb 29 1975M7.9Though the magnitude of the earthquake was greater than that of 1969 event, the maximum amplitude of generated tsunami was only 20-30cm because fault type of the earthquake was strike-slip type.

1969/02/28M7.31m1975/02/29M7.92030cmBACKGROUND - IGC/ITSU

26 member States (2005):Australia, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, DemocraticPeople's Republic of Korea, Ecuador, El Salvador, Fiji, France,Guatemala, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Singapore, Thailand, United States, Samoa.

ITSU is an example of:Successful Operational Tsunami Warning SystemSuccessful international scientific programPacific Basin monitoring of seismicity and sea levelsDirect humanitarian aimMitigate tsunami effects - save lives/property

There are three tsunami warning centers In operation, and five centers under consideration like ICG/IOTWS. In addition to these centers, establishment of global center is also been discussing. Discussions for most of centers started before the Great Indian Ocean Tsunami.

/320041226

It is necessary to read arrival times of Primary wave and/or Secondary wave of several stations in order to determinate epicenter and focal depth of earthquake. It is also necessary to read maximum amplitudes of seismic waveform at several stations for evaluation of magnitude of the earthquake. This means that it is important for earthquake analysis to obtain complete seismic waveform data. I will show you waveform of LISS/IRIS data and CTBTO/IMS data. These are the waveforms actually observed at LISS/IRIS stations when the earthquake with M7.8 occurred in Chile, 13 July this year. There are some "data loss" in these waveforms. Under these conditions, we have sometimes difficulties in determining the hypocenter and magnitude. There are about 20~30% stations JMA could not use seismic waveform data for earthquake analysis. 203072data lossP100 These seismic waveform data are obtained from CTBTO/IMS stations for the same earthquake shown in the previous slide. We could receive complete waveform data from almost all CTBTO/IMS stations.

CTBTO

CTBTOTestLPAZCTBTO30

JMA calculates data availability of the CTBTO/IMS sites selected for the experiment. It was 99.67% during the period from 1 to 6 July, while the Internet data availability was 82.14% during the same period. CTBTO/IMS data availability ismuch higher than the Internet data.

CTBTO87/17/699.6782.14% This figure shows the data transmission delay. LISS and IRIS data is transmitted through the Internet with delay of 100 and 180 seconds on average, respectively. On the other hand, CTBTO/IMS data is transmitted in 30 seconds via the VSAT communication. We can receive CTBTO/IMS data much earlier than LISS/IRIS data.

CTBTOLISS100IRIS18030200CTBTOunder upgrading300CMARILARupgradeCTBTO30CTBTOVSAT This is the case of the earthquake occurred in Chile, 13 June this year. JMA could receive data from CTBTO LPAZ station 180 seconds earlier than the earliest LISS station.

100180CTBTO30613CTBTOLPAZLPAZ30SAML100

To estimate a tsuanmigenic potential correctly, focal depth estimation is essential. And it is also important for Tsunami Warning to determine accurately whether the epicenter is in an oceanic area or in a land area when an earthquake took place near a coast. Generally, the accuracy of estimated earthquake parameters increases if we can use seismic data from more stations. I would like to demonstrate how much the accuracy would be improved if we can use the data from the CTBTO network, by using a computer simulation technique. This shows errors of estimated hypocenter depth. The top figure is derived only from the Internet data obtained from the stations with more than 60% of data availability. The bottom one is the result of adding the data from CTBTO including the planned stations. These are also the cases in the following figures. Red and purple areas are of large error while green and yellow are small. We can see that the accuracy is improved in most of the area including the Indian Ocean. This shows horizontal errors of estimated hypocenter around Sumatra Island, where the big earthquake occurred in December 2004. The left is the case we use only the Internet data, and the right includes CTBTO. In both figures, an ellipsoid denotes an estimated epicentral error. In the left figure, a lot of error ellipsoids are large so that they extend both to land area and ocean. That means that we cannot distinguish an inland earthquake and an ocean one precisely. On the other hand, in the right figure, we can distinguish an inland earthquake and an ocean one more precisely. In 1960, a big earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile. This earthquake generated a ocean-wide destructive tsunami. The accuracy is also improved in this area.