PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES, 1970–71 TO 2030–31
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Transcript of PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES, 1970–71 TO 2030–31
David GargettAfzal Hossain
13 February 2007
PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES,
1970–71 TO 2030–31
Background
• Arose from need to forecast light vehicle traffic on the national highways.
• But need to consider all modes.
• Thus aim is to model drivers of total passenger travel between cities.
• Only then can one predict highway car travel patterns.
Objectives
• Estimation of passenger movements by mode between Australian major cities from 1970-71 to 2003-04.
• What will growth be to 2030-31 in passenger movements by mode between Australian cities?
Ten city pairs• Sydney-Melbourne
• Sydney-Brisbane
• Melbourne-Brisbane
• Melbourne-Adelaide
• Eastern States-Perth
• Sydney-Adelaide
• Melbourne and Sydney-Gold Coast
• Eastern States-Tasmania
• Canberra-Sydney
• Eastern States-Northern Territory
Modes
• Air
• Car
• Coach
• Rail
• Other
Time series
Historical Data: 1970-71 to 2003-04
Projections: 2004-05 to 2030-31
Based on
GDP (Treasury)
Population Growth Rates (ABS)
Changes in Fares (various sources)
Main data sources
• Designed around tourism data on inter-regional passenger movements.
• Because the data has been and continues to be measured by Tourism Research Australia (TRA), to the tune of $4M/year.
• TRA surveys both domestic and international travellers about their travel between the regions of Australia.
• This data has been assembled for the 10 city pairs by mode from 1970-71 to 2003-04.
Gravity Model
Total passenger travel between any two cities (say i and j) can be calculated:
Tij = (Pi x Pj x GDPc2)0.524 / (Tc / CPI)-0.565
where
Tij - Total trips between regions i and j.
Pi and Pj - Total population in region i and region j.
GDPc - National gross domestic product per capita.
Tc - Real generalised cost of travel.
CPI - Consumer Price Index.
Logistic Substitution Model
• Forecasts of total travel were converted to forecasts for specific modes by using logistic substitution models of mode split.
• For each mode, a competitiveness index was estimated based on changes in the mode share over the last decade.
• A competitiveness index below 1.0 means the mode is expected to decline over time in share relative to air.
Logistic Substitution Model – Contd.
For example, on the short Canberra-Sydney route, the competitiveness indices are:
Air - 1.00Car - 1.02Coach - 0.98Rail - 1.03
On the long Sydney-Brisbane route (more typical of the intercity routes), the competitiveness indices are:
Air – 1.00Car - 0.97Coach- 0.93Rail - 0.93
Passenger Movements by ModeSydney-Brisbane
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
1970
-71
1974
-75
1978
-79
1982
-83
1986
-87
1990
-91
1994
-95
1998
-99
2002
-03
2006
-07
2010
-11
2014
-15
2018
-19
2022
-23
2026
-27
2030
-31
RailCoachCarAir
Actual Forecasts
Pas
sen
ger
('0
00)
Mode Share (per cent) Sydney-Brisbane
0
20
40
60
80
100
19
70
-71
19
74
-75
19
78
-79
19
82
-83
19
86
-87
19
90
-91
19
94
-95
19
98
-99
20
02
-03
20
06
-07
20
10
-11
20
14
-15
20
18
-19
20
22
-23
20
26
-27
20
30
-31
AirCarCoachRail
Actual Forecasts
Pe
r c
en
t
Average annual growth rates by mode,1970-71 to 2003-04
City pairs (per cent)
Air Car Coach Rail Other
Syd-Mel 5.1 -0.3 1.8 -2.1 3.0
Syd-Bne 4.6 0.5 0.7 -1.7 2.8
Mel-Bne 7.3 1.7 2.9 -2.4 5.9
Mel-Adl 4.5 2.0 0.6 -1.5 2.7
ES-Per 7.2 4.9 -0.8 -3.3 6.2
Syd-Adl 6.0 -0.1 -2.0 -1.5 3.5
Mel+Syd-GC 7.6 1.2 6.3 -1.6 3.8
ES-Tas 3.8 4.8 0.6 3.9 3.9
Cbr-Syd 3.0 4.0 4.6 -1.3 3.8
ES-NT 6.1 5.5 1.8 3.7 5.4
Average annual growth rates comparison (all modes)
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
ES-NT
Cbr-Syd
ES-Tas
Mel+Syd-GC
Syd-Adl
ES-Per
Mel-Adl
Mel-Bne
Syd-Bne
Syd-Mel
(per cent)
1970-71 to 2003-042004-05 to 2030-31
So what do we get ?1. An understanding of the drivers of
travel.
2. An understanding of the patterns of mode share change.
3. A link to a continuing and funded data source updated yearly.
4. 1 to 3 provide the basis for the OZPASS interregional travel model.
5. Forecasts out of the OZPASS model are providing forecasts of car traffic along AUSLINK Corridors.
These forecasts are:
1. Systematic – based on transparent research.
2. Validated – Bruce Highways over 10 years.
3. Multi-modal – e.g. current airports project.
4. Open to scenarios – i.e. policy changes or changes in assumed conditions (e.g. fares).
Summary
• On all routes, except Canberra–Sydney route, air travel has been progressively taking mode share from car plus coach and rail.
• This effect will be less important in the future as the rate of mode share capture by air slows.
• Overall, total passenger travel growth is expected to continue to grow more quickly than GDP.
• The relationships found on the 10 corridors have been built into the OZPASS interregional travel model.
FOR A COPY OF THE PUBLICATION VISIT:
www.btre.gov.au/Publications/Information Sheet/
Information Sheet 26
Thank you
Any question ?