Jenn Salfi RN, PhD McMaster University Patty SolomonPT, PhD McMaster University (Mentor)
PASSENGER CAR FLOWS ACROSS THE CANADA-US BORDER:THE EFFECT OF 9/11 Bill Anderson, Hanna Maoh,...
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Transcript of PASSENGER CAR FLOWS ACROSS THE CANADA-US BORDER:THE EFFECT OF 9/11 Bill Anderson, Hanna Maoh,...
PASSENGER CAR FLOWS ACROSS THE CANADA-US BORDER:THE EFFECT OF 9/11
Bill Anderson, Hanna Maoh,(University of Windsor)
and Charles Burke (McMaster University)
Borders in Globalization ConferenceCarleton University and University of Ottawa
September 25-27, 2014
September 25, 2014
2
Identify factors that influence the level of passenger vehicle movement across the Canada-US border for the period 1972 – 2011
Isolate the effect of enhanced security regime in the aftermath of 9/11
Objectives
3
DATA
Data on the number of passenger vehicle crossings the Canada-US border are obtained from the Statistics Canada International Travel Survey Frontier Counts series (CANSIM Table 427-0002)
All vehicles are counted as they pass through Canadian border inspection plazas
Vehicles are separated into US residents visiting Canada and Canadian residents returning from a visit to the US
The number of vehicles crossings are separated into same day trips and trips that involve staying over one or more nights (hereafter called “overnight” trips)
Data and Trends
4
DATA
The data do not identify trip purposes such as shopping trips and commute trips
The data are also disaggregated by the Canadian province in which the crossings occur
Data and statistical results are presented both for all of Canada and for the province of Ontario
Ontario accounts for the largest share of crossings.
The share of commuting trips is almost certainly higher in Ontario than in other provinces
Data and Trends – cnt’d
5
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000 Ontario: US Vehicle Crossings: Same Day
Canada: US Vehicle Crossings, Same Day
Annual Vehicle Crossings from US to Canada: Same Day
Trends
6
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000 Ontario, CAN Vehicle Cross-ings, Same Day
Canada: CAN Vehicle Crossings, Same Day
Annual Vehicle Crossings from Canada to US: Same Day
Trends – cnt’d
7
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000 Ontario: US Vehicle Crossings, One or More NightsCanada: US Vehicle Crossings, One or More Nights
Annual Vehicle Crossings from US to Canada: Overnight
Trends – cnt’d
8
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000 Ontario: CAN Vehicle Crossings, One or More Nights
Canada: CAN Vehicle Crossings, One or More Nights
Annual Vehicle Crossings from Canada to US: Overnight
Trends – cnt’d
9
Annual time series regression models are specified for passenger vehicle crossings to the US and to Canada
Separate models are estimated for same day trips and for overnight trips, making a total of four basic models
Each of these models is then repeated for the subset of trips that pass through Ontario border crossings, making a total of eight regression models
Multivariate Regression Analysis
10
Where,is the number of passenger crossing year t
are the independent variables used in the regression (K = 1, 2, …, k)
’s are parameters to be estimated and
is the unobserved error term
Basic Form of Time Series Regression Model
11
Variable Definition CAN. GDP Real annual Canadian gross domestic product (GDP)
ONT. GDP Real annual Ontarian gross domestic product (GDP)
USA. GDP Real annual US gross domestic product (GDP)
CAN. GDP (%) Annual percent change in Canadian real GDP
ONT. GDP (%) Annual percent change in Ontarian real GDP
USA. GDP (%) Annual percent change in American real GDP
US EXR US Exchange Rate as the value of $1 US in Canadian currency
Post911 1 if year is greater than 2001, 0 otherwise
TD1 1 if year is greater than or equal to 1987 and less than 1992, 0 otherwise
TD2 1 if year is greater than or equal to 1992 and less than 1996, 0 otherwise
TD3 1 if year is greater than or equal to 1980 and less than 1982, 0 otherwise
TD4 1 if year is greater than or equal to 1995 and less than 2000, 0 otherwise
1
Independent Variables used in Regression
Note: Time dummies TD1 to TD4 are used to capture popularity of Sunday shopping (TD1), introduction of GST (TD2), brief period when gasoline was cheaper in Canada due to the Iraq-Iran war (TD3), and opening of casinos in Canada-earlier than in the US(TD4) .
Factors captured by dummy variables
• Popularity of Sunday shopping (87-92)• Introduction of GST (92-96)• Brief period when gasoline was cheaper in
Canada (80 – 82)• Opening of casinos in Canada (earlier than in
the US.) (95-2000)
13
Variable Same day crossings One or more nights crossings CAN to
USA ONT to USA
USA to CAN
USA to ONT
CAN to USA
ONT to USA
USA to CAN
USA to ONT
Constant 0.629 1.243 0.201 0.038 0.705 1.303 0.856 0.861 CAN. GDP 1.095 1.095 ONT. GDP 1.739 1.460 USA. GDP 0.571 0.629 0.389 0.189 CAN. GDP (%) -0.017 -0.017 ONT. GDP (%) -0.013 -0.012 USA. GDP (%) 0.006 0.005 0.009 0.007 US EXR -0.585 -1.301 0.115 0.192 -0.572 -1.196 -0.250 -0.127 Post911 -1.474 -2.859 -1.639 -1.616 -0.732 -1.741 2.803 2.031 Post911 x US EXR 0.798 1.722 1.067 1.027 0.362 1.031 Post911 x US GDP -3.096 -2.232 TD1 0.215 0.139 TD2 0.255 0.201 0.213 0.223 TD3 0.303 0.334 TD4 0.112 0.123 Number of Obs. 40 30 40 40 40 30 40 40 R2 0.842 0.846 0.936 0.947 0.849 0.847 0.508 0.485 Adj. R2 0.807 0.806 0.922 0.935 0.816 0.807 0.436 0.409 Augmented Dickey-Fuller (DF) test statistic
-5.425* -5.585* -4.221* -4.359* -5.297* -4.687* -4.187** -4.072**
1 2 3 4
Results
Highlights
• GDP growth rate has negative impact on trips from Canada
• Effect of exchange rate as expected (negative for Can-US, positive for US-Can but not significant for US-Can.)
• Effect of 911:– Negative effect on all trips– Eliminates exchange rate effects for Can-US trips
15
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000Predicted (No Post911 Effects)
Predicted (Post911 Effects)
Observed
Estimated Impact of 9/11 on Same Day Passenger Vehicle Crossings from Canada to the US
Results-cnt’d
16
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000Predicted (No Post911 Effects)
Predicted (Post911 Effects)
Observed
Estimated Impact of 9/11 on Same Day Passenger Vehicle Crossings from the US to Canada
Results-cnt’d
17
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000Predicted (No Post911 Effects)
Predicted (Post911 Effects)
Observed
Estimated Impact of 9/11 on Same Day Passenger Vehicle Crossings from Ontario to the US
Results-cnt’d
18
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000Predicted (No Post911 Effects)Predicted (Post911 Ef-fects)Observed
Estimated Impact of 9/11 on Same Day Passenger Vehicle Crossings from the US to Ontario
Results-cnt’d
19
Same day passenger vehicle trips from the US to Canada have plummeted while same day trips from Canada to the US have stagnated
Results suggest that had it not been for the attacks of 9/11, same day trips from the US to Canada would have held steady and trips from Canada to the US would have reached new peaks
Conclusions
20
CANSIM Table 427-0002 : Table 427-0002 - Number of vehicles travelling between Canada and the United States, monthlyhttp://cansim2.statcan.ca/CII/Dir/4270002-eng.htm
William P. Anderson, Hanna F. Maoh and Charles M. Burke, 2014, “Passenger car flows across the Canada-US border: The effect of 9/11,” Transport Policy, 35:50-56.
References
21
Acknowledgments
This research is supported by the Government of Ontario through the Ontario Research Chairs in Public Policy program
Authors’ Contact Info Bill Anderson Cross Border Institute, University of Windsor ([email protected])
Hanna Maoh Associate Director, Cross Border Institute University of Windsor ([email protected])
Charles Burke PhD. Candidate, School of Geography & Earth Sciences McMaster University ([email protected])