1

PartnershipSchoolsforLiberia

ExecutiveSummaryPartnership Schools for Liberia (PSL) is a public private partnership (PPP) for education aiming todramatically improve learning outcomes for children. PSL launched in September 2016, with 93primaryschoolsmanagedbyeightoperators.PSL isagovernment-led initiative.Allcommissioningdecisions,qualityassuranceandregulationremaintheresponsibilityoftheMinistryofEducation.Allschools remain government schools and are free. President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and EducationMinister George K. Werner launched PSL because they recognised that the status quo isunacceptable.Somethingnewisurgentlyneeded.Tryingtodealwithalloftheproblemsacrossthesystematoncewasoverwhelming,especiallygivenlimitedresources.ThePresidentandEducationMinisterwantedtogetlearningoutcomesrightinasmallnumberofschools,fundedatabasiclevel,and then scale up if reforms were effective. The cost of PSL is nomore than the amountmanygovernments in the region already spend on their primary schools ($100 per pupil). It was alsohoped that performance, safety and standards would improve by having the contractedorganizations visit each school regularly. Given highly constrained resources in education, mostLiberian schools are currently visited only once a year, limiting performance management andimprovement. PSL is a pilot, and like any good pilot, it should be judged on the empirical data itproduces—dataonwhetherPSLschoolsdeliverbetterlearningforLiberianchildren,bothboysandgirls,urbanandrural,ataffordablecoststothegovernmentanddonors.

1) ContextinLiberiaEducationstatistics inLiberia,bothenrolmentand learningoutcomes,areamongtheworst in theworld.AftermorethanadecadeofcivilwarandtheEbolacrisisof2014/15, thepubliceducationsystemissimplynotabletodeliverthequalityofeducationthatchildrenneedanddeserve:

• In rural areas, 65percentof youngwomenand35percentof youngmenaged15-24 areilliterate.

• Acrossthecountry,25%of15-24yearoldscannotreadasinglesentence.• Just20percentofchildrenwhoenrolingradeonegoontocompletegrade12.

2) RationaleforPartnershipSchoolsforLiberiaBoldandprogressivereformsareneededifthingsaretochangeforLiberia’schildren.Recognisingthelimitedcapacityofgovernmenttodeliverbetteroutcomes,theMinistryofEducationlookedtothenon-statesectortoinsourceschoolmanagementexpertiseintothepublicsystemthroughaPPP.This is an integral part of a wider set of education sector reforms taking place and defined inLiberia’s Education Sector Plan 2017-2021. It is expected that the external expertisewill bring in:closer monitoring and performance management, innovative learning models, and additionalresourcesbringingLiberiatotheinvestmentlevelofmanyneighbouringcountrieswhiletheLiberianeconomy recovers from shocks such as Ebola and the drop in commodity prices. PSL has alsoenabledstandardpoliciestobedevelopedforthese93schoolsthatcannowbescaledandappliedtoallgovernmentschools– forexample,extending theschoolday to3pm,allowingmore literacyhours;makingEarlyChildhoodEducationfree,notjustprimaryschool;andallowingteacherstobeaddedtopayrolliftheypassaMinistry-administeredtest.

3) ThePartnershipSchoolsforLiberiapilotEight operators were commissioned by the Ministry of Education to manage 93 public primaryschools,educatingmorethan27,000children.Operatorswerecommissionedthroughatransparentprocess, which scrutinized their track record, capacity, plans and budgets. Operators signed acontractwiththeMinistryofEducationoutliningtheresponsibilitiesofeachpartnerwithinPSLandholding themaccountable against a set of pre-agreedKPIs. TheMinistry of Education is receiving

2

philanthropicsupportto increase itscapacitytomanagePSLthroughadeliveryunittobecomeaninformedandstrongcommissioner,regulatorandqualityassurerofPSLschools.

4) ExternalevaluationA three year randomised control trial (RCT) has been commissioned to provide independent andrigorous evidence on the impact of PSL on learning outcomes and other keymetrics. The resultsfromtheRCTwillbeusedtoinformfuturePSLpolicy,particularlyscale-updecisions.

5) Financialmodel,scaleandsustainability• ThefundingformulaforPSLinyearoneprovidesaphilanthropicallyfundedperpupilsubsidyof

$50 per child to operators, in addition to the state’s investment of $50 per child – the samefinancial obligation the government has to every other public school. This aligns with theprojectedincreaseinstateper-childexpenditureto$101by2020

• The cost of the PSL pilot in year one is $3.9 million, of which $2.5 million requires externalfunding.Thebalanceisgovernmentfunding.Thisisinclusiveofoperatorsubsidies,theevaluationandcapacitybuilding,butexclusiveofoperatorR&Dcostsandcostsrelatedtodiseconomiesofscale.

• Anyscaleup inyeartwowill take intoaccountthepoliticaleconomy inLiberiawithupcomingelectionsinlate2017,operatorperformance,realisticfundingprojectionsandthetotalfinancialliabilityoftheprogramtoLiberia’seducationsystem.

• Achieving equity is essential as PSL moves forward. PSL should not be viewed as a parallelsystemandeveryeffortwillbeusedtocaptureandintegratelessonslearnedfromPSLintothewider education system. For example PSL schools can act as proactive learning hubs todisseminatemodular innovations to themost disadvantaged districts in Liberia. PSL policiessuchasextending theschooldayat lowcost; transferringand/oradding teachers topayrollbasedonperformanceinatest;administeringtheTeacherCodeofConductcanalsobeappliedtoallschoolsnowthattheyhavebeentestedinPSLschools.

3

1. ContextinLiberia1.1. CountrycontextLiberiaisapost-conflictcountrywithsubstantiallevelsofvulnerabilityandfragility.Theprotracted14-year civil war cost the lives of approximately 250,000 people and led to substantial losses inmaterialwealthandsocialprogress.Liberia’spost-warGDPgrowthwasstrongbetween2004–13.RealGDPgrewonaverage7percent,withsignificantcontributionsfromagricultureandservices.However,hitbyatwinshock-theEbolaepidemicandfallingcommodityprices-Liberia’sGDPgrowthsharplydroppedto0.7percentin2014and0percentin20151.In2016,growthisexpectedtoriseto2.5percent.Overthemediumterm,economicgrowthisexpectedtoincreaseto5.5percentonaverage.PovertylevelsinLiberiaremainhigh:

• Nearly70percentofthepopulationinLiberialivesonlessthan$1.90perday(comparedto50%inotherdevelopingcountriesinSub-SaharanAfrica).

• Liberiacontinuestohaveoneofthelowesthumandevelopmentindicesintheworld,ranking177outof188countriesin2015(UNHumanDevelopmentReport2015).

Presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for October 2017. The transition to a newadministrationmayresultinpoliticaluncertaintyandhighturnoverwithingovernmentministries.1.2. Liberia’seducationsystem1.2.1. RecoverypostcivilwarSincetheendofthecivilwar,theMinistryofEducationhasrebuilttheformalandinformalpubliceducationsystemstomeetthegoalofprovidingequalaccesstoeducationforallchildrenregardlessofage,disabilityandgender. Liberiahasrecognizededucationasatoppriority in itsmediumandlong-termdevelopment plan. The Education Sector Plan 2010-2020 aimed to provide all Liberianswith the opportunity to access and complete affordable education of a quality, relevance andappropriateness thatmeets theirneedsand thatof thenation.Thiswas reinforcedby the LiberiaAgenda for Transformation and Education Reform Act 2011. The Education Reform Act (2011)restructuredtheMinistrybureaus,reformedthestudentgradestructureandlaidoutapathwaytodecentralization through the establishments of county anddistrict educationboards. In 2016, theMinistryofEducationdevelopedandendorsedanewEducationSectorPlan2017-2021.1.2.2. ProvisionandfinancingofeducationEducation isprovidedbybothpublicand“non-state”schools.Thedefinitionofnon-state includeschurchowned,private-for-profit,non-profitandcommunityschools:

• About30percentofthechildrenfromthepoorest40percentofthehouseholdsareenrolledinnon-stateschools

• 30percentofchildrenfromruralcommunitiesarealsoattendingnon-stateschools.Some children enrolled in non-state schools are there because there are no available publicalternatives,whileothers,especially inmoreurbanareas,havechosenprivateschools inthehopethat theyofferbetterqualityeducation. Thedifference in theout-of-pocket costsbetweenpublicand non-state schools is significant. This is becausemost non-state schools are low cost schoolswhereas the non-fee elements of the costs of attending public schools, including uniform,transportation or meals represent a significant burden on the average household. The mostsignificant burden on households is the tuition paid for pre-primary education, which is stronglyimposedonfamiliesbytheschoolsasanentryconditiontofirstgrade.

1IMF.(2016).LiberiaSelectedIssuespaper.2Hobbs,J.andDavidson,M.(2015).ExpandingEGRA:TheEarlyGradeLiteracyAssessmentanditscontributiontolanguageinstructioninLiberia.PresentationatUKFIET2015.

4

1.2.3. GovernmentexpenditureoneducationThebudgetshareforeducationwithintotalgovernmentspendingremainedataround13.5percentbetween 2012-2016, planned to rise to 14.4 percent in 2016/17. This is below both thegovernment’s own target in the Education Sector Plan 2010-20 and the Global Partnership forEducationminimumbenchmark (20 percent). This is incremental but significant progress towardsraisingeducation’sshareofthenationalbudget.Compensationofemployeescurrentlymakesup78percentof theMoEbudgetof$44millionperannum. This leaves little room for the Ministry to conduct other activities that are essential forenhancing education quality such as in-service teacher training, curriculum development, schoolmonitoringanddevelopingnationalassessments.1.2.4. ChallengesfacingLiberia’seducationsector• Low enrollment rates: The Net Enrollment Ratios (NER) are low for all education levels, 29

percentforECE, lessthan60percentforprimary,and26%forsecondary.Grossenrollmentishigher;infactonly17percentofprimary-agechildrenarenotattendingeitherEarlyChildhoodEducationorBasicEducationservices.

• Late enrollment and overage enrollment: Approximately 40 percent of primary schoolstudents are more than three years older than the appropriate age for their grade. ThischallengebeginsatECE.Nearly40percentofchildrenenrolledinECEareagesixorolder,theageforentry intogradeone.Systemic lateentrance intoprimaryschoolhasanegativerippleeffect throughout the sector on learning outcomes, primary completion and efficient use ofscarceresources.

• Inequitableaccesstoeducation:Fewerthan47percentofyouthaged10-19fromhouseholdsinthelowertwoquintilesreachGrade6,comparedto88percentofthetopquintile.

• FeesforECE:AlmostallpublicECEschoolscurrentlychargefees(3,500Liberiandollarsperyear- approximately USD 35), with additional costs for uniform and shoes. The current ECE feespolicycontributetotheexclusionofchildrenfrompoorhouseholds.Manyschoolsrequirethatchildrencompletekindergartenpriortobeingallowedtoentergradeone.ECEfeeshavebeenabolishedinPSLschoolsandarebeingabolishedintherestofthecountry’spublicschools.

• Low learning outcomes: Learning outcomes are dismal. A literacy assessment conducted in2014 found that grade three students’ oral reading fluencywas below 20 correctwords perminute,whichissignificantlylowerthantheMinistrybenchmarkof45correctwords.235%ofGrade2studentscouldnotreadasinglewordcorrectly.Amongadultwomenwhoreachedfifthgrade,only20percentcanreadasinglesentence.

• Limited accountability and support at all levels: School inspection and supervision isinadequate; fewschools receiveregular,structuredvisits.Districtofficialsareoftenunabletoinspectschoolsduetoalackoftravelbudget,difficulttransportconditionsandlackofhumancapacity.

• Lackofanational learningassessment system:Thereareno systems inplace formeasuringstudentlearningoutcomesingradesonetosix.ThismeanstheMinistrycannotdeterminethelevel of student learning in early grades, compare learningoutcomes across regions, or trackstudents’progress.

1.2.5. EducationdonorlandscapeThemajor donors providing education funding to Liberia are USAID, the European Union, GlobalPartnershipforEducation(GPE)andtheWorldBank.Giventherelativelysmallsizeofthedomestic

2Hobbs,J.andDavidson,M.(2015).ExpandingEGRA:TheEarlyGradeLiteracyAssessmentanditscontributiontolanguageinstructioninLiberia.PresentationatUKFIET2015.

5

basic education budget ($44million, ofwhich 78 percent is spent on salaries) large donorswieldconsiderablepower.Officialdevelopmentassistance(ODA)foreducationissignificantlymorethandomesticfinancing.FinancingtoeducationfromUSAID,GPEandtheEUalonetotalsmorethan$50millionannually,butalmostnoneofthisischanneledthroughtheMinistryofEducation.Putsimply,Liberiacouldbedescribedastheleastsovereigncountryintheworld.Thechartbelowshows the ratio betweenODA and gross national income (GNI). Liberia is a stark outlier: in 2010Liberiareceived$1.42billioninODA,whilepostingagrossnationalincomeof$805milliongivingaratioof177percent.Thishadreducedto116percentby2014,duetodecliningODAandGNI,withODAreceiptstotaling$842millionandGNIof$720million.

WhatthismeansinpracticeisthattheMinistryofEducation’sabilitytomakefinancingdecisionsrelatingtoeducationsectorprioritiesislimited.Whiledevelopmentpartners,includingUSAIDandtheEuropeanUnion,participateinthedevelopmentoftheEducationSectorPlan,andultimatelyendorseit,thereisnorequirementforthemtocommitfundsalignedtoitspriorities.

177%

61%

49%

46%

41%

40%

35%

28%

27%

25%

Liberia

SolomonIslands

MarshallIslands

Haik

MicronesiaFederalStates

Burundi

Tuvalu

CongoDR

Samoa

SierraLeone

Top10countrieswithhighestODAtoGNIraUo

6

2. RationaleforPartnershipSchoolsforLiberia2.1. AnimpetusforchangeHeateddebatesrage,globallyandwithinLiberia,abouttherelativeperformanceofthepublicandnon-state sectors.But the reality is that thevastmajorityof Liberia’s childrenarenot getting theeducation they need to have real choices and chances in life. The data described in section 1.2shows how dismal educational outcomes are in Liberia. President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf andEducationMinisterGeorgeWerner knew that they needed to try something new if theywere todisruptthefailingsystem.MinisterWernerlookedoutsideofLiberiaforprovenmodelsthatmightbeadaptabletotheLiberiancontext,andsawthatUS-stylecharterschools,orUK-styleacademies,couldholdgreatpotentialforLiberia.2.2. PublicprivatepartnershipsforeducationCharterschoolsandacademiesareformsofPPPs:thesearegovernmentschoolsthatareprivatelymanaged.Sucharrangementshaveshownpotentialtoimprovelearning,particularlyforthepoorestchildren. While evidence is by no means comprehensive or complete, it suggests a positivecorrelationbetweenprivateprovisionofeducationandstudentlearning.

Manygovernmentsarelookingatwaystoseparatethefinancingofeducationfromitsprovisionsotheycanfocusonstrongregulationandcommissioning,ratherthanbeingthemonopolyprovider.Experiencefromelsewhereintheworldsuggeststhateducationsystemswheregovernmentretainsthe roleof rigorously commissioning, regulatingand fundingeducation,butallowadiverse setofoperatorstoprovideeducation,havethepotentialtodeliverbetterstudentperformance.Thissortof PPP is increasingly being considered by developing countries, including South Africa, India andUganda,asawaytoinsourcenon-statesectorexpertisetoincreaseaccesstoqualityeducation.

Therearevariousdifferentformsofeducationprovision, illustratedbelow.PartnershipSchoolsforLiberiaisapubliclyfinanced,privatelyprovidedPPP,whereschoolsremainpartofthepublicsystem.

2.3. ThebenefitsandrisksofPPPsforeducation

TheintroductionofPPPschoolshasthepotentialtodriveupthequalityofeducationingovernmentorprivateschools.Thistypicallyworksby:

• Incentivising and controlling quality: The potential of PPPs lies in the government’s ability toalign contract incentives with education outcomes. Strong PPP contracts include measurableoutcomes,allowinggovernmenttoselect,supportandexpandonlyqualityproviders.GoodPPPsareembeddedwithinstrongaccountabilitysystemswithgoodandtransparentdataandrobustqualityassuranceframeworks.

• Diversityofprovision,bringingcompetition: IntroducingPPPschoolsshould increase levelsofcompetition in the sector (especially if funding follows students), putting pressure on alleducationproviders-public,privateandPPP–toimprovequality.

Private

Fina

nce

PublicProvision Private Provision

Public

Fina

nce

• Userfeesingovernmentschools

• Studentloans

• Publicschoolsanduniversities

• Vouchersforprivateschools

• Charterschools,academies

• PartnershipSchoolsforLiberia

• Privateschoolsanduniversities

• Privatetutoring

7

• Autonomy and accountability for school operators: The flexibilities offered through PPPs forexampleintherecruitmentandmanagementofteachers,timetablingandcurriculumfreedomscanleadtobothimprovedaccountability,efficiencyandquality.Researchshowsthatprivatelymanagedschoolsproducepositiveresultswhencombiningincreasedlevelsofschoolautonomywithhighaccountabilitymechanisms.

• System level impact: PPP schools can serve as ‘innovation labs’: ameans to test policies andinterventionsthatcanthenberolledoutacrossthewidereducationsystem.

However,PPPsarenotapanacea.GivingaschoolPPPstatusdoesnotinitselfmakeadifferenceandthereareanumberofrisksforwhichthegovernmentneedstohavemitigationstrategies:

• Weakaccountabilitymechanismscanleadtofailure: IfaPPPpolicy is introducedwithouttheproper focus on quality outcomes, and without adequate regulatory systems in place, theeffectiveness of the approach is undermined. For example, in Chile the voucher systemestablishedinthelate1980swasnotaccompaniedbystrongaccountabilityframeworksandhasincreasedinequalityandsegregation.

• PPPs require high quality school operators: A significant barrier to quality is low levels ofcapacity in the public system. Even within the private sector, human capital is a resourceconstraint.Investmentintheincubationandgrowthoftheschooloperatorsmarketisrequiredinordertoensurethereisasufficientnumberofhigh-qualityoperatorsabletoworkwithinthepublicsystem.

• PPPs require strong government capacity: The relevant national, state or local governmentmustplay a role in the identificationof potential school providers, the commissioningof newPPPschoolsandtheon-goingmonitoringandcontractmanagementofschoolproviders–andbewillingandabletointerveneeffectivelyintheeventofunderperformance.

2.4. EvidenceoftheimpactofPPPsWhenconsideringtheintroductionofPSL,theMinistryofEducationlookedatevidencegeneratedfromelsewhere.Indoingso,itfoundaninsufficientevidencebase,butsomepromisingdatapoints:

• IntheUSA,studentslivinginpovertywhoattendcharterschoolsshowamarkedimprovementinlearningoutcomescomparedwithasimilarcohortingovernmentschools(CREDO2013).

• Assessments of over 60,000 children in Punjab, Pakistan show that the Punjab EducationFoundation – which enables poor children to attend low-cost private schools for free - hasachievedsignificantgainsinlearningoutcomesinbothliteracyandnumeracy(Brookings,2013).

• Test scores in Colombia’s concession schools, when controlled for confounding variables, areequaltoorhigherthanthoseinequivalentgovernmentschools(FelipeBarrera-Osorio,2007).

• Theeducational,operationalandgovernancebenefitsofschoolnetworks,ratherthanindividualschools,areincreasinglyrecognised(RobertHill,2012).

Absolute Return for Kids (Ark) EPG has commissioned leading academics to produce a rigorousreviewonPPPs foreducation,whichwill beavailable inearly2017.Thiswill validate theneed formore evidence and for PPP experiments, like PSL, to be rigorously evaluated to contribute to thisevidencebaseandtohelpinformpolicydialogueatnationalandgloballevel.

2.5. DesigningPartnershipSchoolsforLiberiaWith the benefits, challenges and evidence outlined above in mind, the Ministry of Educationdesigned PSL to be appropriate for the unique context in Liberia, while embedding principles ofdiversity of provision and competition, sustainability, a strong focus on quality and equity, highlevelsofaccountability,andsystemstrengthening.

8

3. ThePartnershipSchoolsforLiberiaPilot3.1. GoalandobjectivesThegoalofPartnershipSchoolsforLiberiaistorapidlyimprovenumeracyandliteracyoutcomesforpre-primaryandprimaryagechildrenthroughcontractingthemanagementofpublicschoolstonon-stateoperators.Thepilotproject,whichlaunchedinSeptember2016,aimstotestthismodelandhasthreeobjectives:

i. Select, commission and contract non-state operators to run 93 public primary schools,leadingtohigherlearningoutcomesinliteracyandnumeracy.

ii. BuildthecapacityoftheMinistryofEducationtoeffectivelyplaytheroleofcommissioner,regulatorandqualityassurerofPSLschools.

iii. Conduct a rigorous external evaluation to measure the performance (quality, cost-effectiveness,equity)ofPSLschoolsincomparisonwithtraditionalpublicschools.

3.2. Commissioningprocess

The Ministry of Education contracted eight private operators to manage public primary andcombinedK-Grade6schoolstonon-stateoperators.Thiswasmanagedthroughatransparentandcompetitive commissioning process, with applicants required to demonstrate how they meteligibility criteria. The process consisted of two stages, as required by the Liberian PublicProcurement and Concessions Committee (PPCC), with which the Ministry of Education workedclosely toplantheprocess.StageOnewasarequest forexpressionsof interest (REOI).StageTwowasarequestforfullproposalsfromthoseorganizationsthatpassedtheREOIstage.

The selection committee, chaired by the Minister for Education, comprised two representativesfromtheMinistry,twoadvisorsfromARKEPGandonefromcivilsociety.TheprocesswasoverseenbytheMinistry’sprocurementdirector.MeetingswereheldbeforeandafterwiththePPCC,whichoversees all government procurement, to ensure the correct process was followed. Elevenorganizations submitted expressions of interest; nine organizations were invited to make a fullproposal;andsevenorganizationswerefinallyselectedasschooloperatorsaspartofPSL.

Bridge InternationalAcademieswascommissionedthroughaseparateprocess, followingavisitbyMinisterWernerandPresidentSirleaftotheirschoolsinKenyaandUganda.BIAwasfundedunderaseparate foundationgrantbefore theexistenceofPSL.Thiswas the resultofadirectgovernmentrequest in2016tothephilanthropicsectortosupportthe implementationofanexisting, lowunitcostmodeltoimprovelearningoutcomesatscale.ThePSLwasdevelopedfollowingthisinitialgrant,which then introduced a number of different partners andmodalities working at different scalesacrossthecountry.

3.3. DataonPartnershipSchoolsforLiberia3.3.1. PSLoverviewdata(December2016)

Operators Eight:withexperiencefrommorethan10countries

Schools 93pre-primaryandprimaryschools

ChildreninPSLschools 27,379

Countiescovered 13/15

Newteachersonpublicpayroll 500+

Increasein#learninghoursperday Fromfourtoseven(onaverage)

Percentagegirlchildlearners 47percent

9

3.3.2. PSLschoolallocationbyoperator93 schoolswere allocated to eight school operators, based on their track record and capacity tomanageschools.Oftheeightoperators,fourhaveexperiencerunningschoolsoutsideofLiberia,andfourhaveexperienceeitherrunningschoolsoreducationalprogramswithinLiberia.

3.3.3. PSL’sgeographicalcoveragePSLschoolsarelocatedin13ofLiberia’s15countries.ThemapbelowshowsthelocationofthePSL“treatment” schools, aswell as theequivalent control schoolswithin the randomized control trial(seesectionfour).ApriorityforyeartwoistoensuregreatercoverageofPSLschoolsinunderservedcounties,especiallyinthesoutheast,toachievegreaterequity.

3.4. Governmentcapacity3.4.1. AccountabilitywithintheLiberianeducationsystemIf PSL is to be successful, the governmentmust take on the role of commissioner, regulator andquality assurer of school performance. This will strengthen the education system beyond PSL:informationonschoolperformancecanhelpgovernmentstosupportschoolsorchallengethemtoimprove;helpparentshold schools toaccount; andhelp schoolsunderstandbetterhow they canimprove themselves. Measuring school performance and acting accordingly through an

25

2017

12

65

4 4

BridgeInternakonalAcademiesBRAC

OmegaSchools

StreetChild

MoreThanMe

RisingAcademies

StellaMaris

LIYONET

10

accountability system has been shown in many different geographies to drive up educationstandards(Hanushek2004,Burgess2010,Bruns,FilmerandPatrinos2011).Liberiaalreadyhaselementsofabasicschoolaccountabilitysystem–forexampleithasasystemofcounty anddistrict educationofficers (DEOs andCEOs) that are supposed to support andprovideoversight to schools. However, the system inhibits effective monitoring and accountability in anumberofways:

• Quality assurance: DEOs and CEOs are heavily involved in the running and day-to-daymanagementofthesystem.Thishasthedualeffectofreducingthetimetheyhaveforeffectivemonitoringandinspectionsandskewingincentives.DEOsandCEOsareresponsibleforboththequalityofschoolsandensuringimprovement,andjudgingthequalityofschools.

• Data:Theprocessforcollectingdataiscumbersome.AnecdotalreportssuggestthatEMISdataisincomplete.Thereislittletonoreliabledataonattendanceorretentionandnoneonqualityatprimaryyears.

• Assessments:therearenoagreedstandardsinprimaryorearlyyears.Withouttheseit ishardtocomparequality.Thishasthedualimpactofmakingaccountabilityharderforthegovernmentandreducingtheinformationschoolsandparentscanusetomakedecisions.

Ultimately, the existing framework does not provide reliable data on student characteristics orstudent outcomes, and nor does it allow the Government to have adequate visibility of schoolperformanceacrossthecountry.ForGoLtoeffectivelyplaytheroleofcommissioner,regulatorandqualityassurer,thegovernmentwillneedthecapacityandexpertisetoholdschoolsaccountableforperformance.3.4.2. PSLdeliveryunitTheMinistry is establishing a PSL delivery unit, a separate organizational unitwithin theMinistryorganogram,reportingdirectlytotheMinister,andprimarilycomprisedofhighperformingMinistrystaffwhoaresecondedfromtheirpostorhiredin.ThedeliveryunitwillmeetresponsibleMinistersandtheirteamsonaweeklybasistoreviewprogressandtherewillbestock-takemeetingswiththeMinistereverytwoweeks.Themainrolesofthedeliveryunitareoutlinedbelow;acapacitybuildingplanisinplacetoensuretheMinistrycanplaytheseroleseffectively.

a. Collectreliableandrigorousschool-leveldata

Better data is needed at school andMinistry level to track attendance, attainment andother keymetrics.School informationsystems (SIS)can improveaccountabilityandhighlightwhereaction isrequired,aswellastransformagovernment’sabilitytomonitoritsschools.Thedatacollectedwillbe fed intoanaggregateddashboard,whichallows theMinistryandotherpartners tokeep trackofprogressat school,operatorandpilot level.Theshotsbelowprovideanexampleofthekindofdashboardthatcanbedevelopedandkeptupdated.ThishasbeentrialedinSierraLeone, India,UgandaandSouthAfricaandhasprovenreliable incontextswithandwithoutinternetaccess.The use of SIS provides visibility to school leaders and government on the measures of schoolperformanceoutlined.Basedonlogistics,particularlyaccesstointernet,routinesarebeingplannedimplemented whereby data is collected from schools, validated for quality and shared withgovernmenttoallowregularmonitoring.Crucially,operatorsareencouraged,andwillbeprovidedwithtraining,toanalyzetheirreportsandadjusttheirplansaccordingly.TheKPIframeworkwasdiscussedandagreedwithoperatorsaheadofthelaunchandformspartoftheir contractwith thegovernment. Operators are required to submitKPI reportsonaquarterlybasis,whicharecombinedintoadatapackandscrutinizedbytheMinistry.TheKPIdata,togetherwithresultsfromtheexternalevaluation,will feed intothegovernment’sdecision-makingprocessregardingthescaleoftheprograminyeartwo.

11

Exampledatadashboard

b. QualityassurePSLschoolsThe Ministry of Education is being supported to design and implement a quality assuranceframework,whichidentifiesthemostbasicandcriticalissuesfacedbyaschool.Thistoolwill likelybe implementedbyCEOsandDEOs,whowillbetrainedasassessorstocoverallschools.Thetoolcomplements and validates data generated through the school information system by providingmorecomprehensiveinsightintoschoolperformance.Thisapproachhasbeentrialedinmorethan2,000schoolsinMadhyaPradesh,India,whereequivalentgovernmentresourceshavebeentrainedasassessors.The framework outlines and measures key indicators of school performance categorized underfunctionaldomains:

1. Qualityofenablers• Schoolleadership• Schoolmanagement

2. Qualityofprocesses• Teaching• Supportforstudents• Parentandcommunityengagement

3. Qualityofoutcomes• Academicoutcomes• Personalandsocialoutcomes.

The tool provides both feedback to government and, crucially, a school improvement planframeworkfortheschoolitself.

c. AnalysisofperformanceandsubsequentactionAcalendarofperformancemanagementroutineshasbeenestablishedtoregularlyassessprogressagainsttheoutcomesandactionsinthepolicyandimplementationplans:

• The PSL team is being trained to analyze school performance data and to present it to theMinistryleadershipteaminaformatthatencouragesrobustdiscussion.

Byyearandterm Bymonth Byweek

12

• Thisperformancedatashouldbediscussedatbi-weeklyroutinestocktakemeetings,chairedbytheMinister of Education. The outcomes of the discussionwill lead to supportive or punitiveaction being taken – in other words, any decisions to terminate or expand individual schooloperatorswillbetakenonthebasisofrobustdata.

• A comprehensive system of support and interventions for low-performing schools will bedevelopedandimplemented.

• Government-provided reportson schoolperformancewillbe sharedwith the schools,parentsandcivilsociety.

3.5. Achievementsandchallengestodate3.5.1. AchievementsPSLcommenced inSeptember2016sooutcomedata isnotyetavailable.However, somenotableachievementshavebeenrecordedinthefirstsemester,mostimportantlythesuccessfullaunchofatruly government-led public private partnership for education, with multiple operators and arigorous evaluation. The participating operators represent some of the highest performingeducation organizations in Africa and Liberia. In addition to the data in section 3.3.1, PSL hasdeliveredthefollowingforLiberia’schildren:• Asurgeinenrolment,inbothprimaryandECE,includinginruralcommunities• HundredsofhoursofteachertrainingdeliveredtoPSLteachers,withplansforthousandsover

therestofthisyear.• Over500newqualifiedteachersarenowonthepayroll:thisconsistof275trainedteacherswho

werewaitingforjobsand225existingteacherswhohadbeenvolunteeringwithoutpay• Ateacherineveryclassroom.PSLschoolswereonaveragemissingfourteachersineveryschool.

Theynowhaveateacherpergrade,plustwoadministrators• Longerschoolday.OnaveragePSLstudentsreceivethreemorehoursoflearningperday• PSLschoolsaremonitoredonaverageeverytwoweeks,comparedwitharoundonceperyear

previously.Inaddition,therehavebeensomenotablesystemleveleffectsofPSL,whichhavethepotentialtohaveenduringimpactacrossthepublicsystem:• Recognitionoftheneedforalongerschoolday• RecognitionoftheneedtoremovefeesforECEacrossthepublicsystem• Determinationtotestteachercompetencies,andremovethosewhoarenotperforming• Determinationtoreduceallclasssizestoamaximumof60• Measuring success through learning outcomes, not solely inputs such as infrastructure or

textbooks.• Increasedrecognitionoftheneedtoholdschoolsaccountablemoreeffectively,throughregular

monitoringandsupervision• Betterqualitydataonthestateoftheeducationsystem• ImprovedMinistrycapacityinareasincludingcontractingandprocurement,policydevelopment,

projectmanagement,partnerengagement,problem-solving,KPIdevelopment.3.5.2. ChallengesPSLhasfacedanumberofchallengesaheadofandsincethelaunchinSeptember.Mostsignificantwas the global and national media storm relating to the perceived privatization of Liberia’seducationsystem.ThiswasastarksignaltotheMinistryanditspartnerstoinvestmoreinproactivecommunicationsgoingforward,toensurethatthemedia’sreportingonPSLisfairandaccurate.PSLcontinues to receive significantmedia scrutinyandcoverage,witharticles in theNewYorkTimes,BBC,MailandGuardian,Voxandnumerouspieces in theLiberianmedia.Otherchallenges,whicharebeingfactoredintothedecisionmakingprocessforscaleinyeartwo,include:

13

• Governmentcapacitytoholdoperatorsaccountable:Whilegreatemphasis isbeingplacedonbuilding up the capacity of the Ministry of Education, the limited resources mean that thegovernmenthasnotbeenabletomonitorPSLschoolsasrigorouslyasitwantsandneedsto.

• Operatorcapacity:PSLoperatorswerecommissionedfollowingdiligenceontheir trackrecordandcapacity.However, fouroperatorsareworking in Liberia for the first timeandhavebeenrequiredtoadapttotheuniquecontextrapidly.

• Compressed timeframe: PSL was conceptualized in January 2016. Given the urgent need toimproveeducationaloutcomes,theMinistersetanaggressiveandambitioustimeframetoopenPSL schools eight months later. The fact that 93 schools are up and running is a hugeachievement,particularly givenaccess challengesduring the rainy season.However, the rapidstart-upphasecreatedimperfectconditionsforoperators,evaluatorsandgovernmentalike.

• Teacher payroll: The civil service agency (CSA) has instituted a freeze on all new civil servicehires. Therefore, retiring teachers, ghost teachers or underperforming teachers need to bedirectlyreplacedwithnewones.ThishasmeantthatanumberofteachersinPSLschoolswerenotpaidforthemonthsofSeptemberandOctober.TheMinistryiscurrentlyresolvingthisissueandexpectsthistobecompletebythestartofsemestertwo.Importantly,PSLhasilluminatedasystemlevelchallengeandgovernmentisfindingwaystoaddressit.

• Sustainability: PSL schools are receiving at least twice the funding of equivalent governmentschools,significantlymoreinsomecases.Thefundingformulahasbeendesignedtoensurethatschools operate at $100 per child, the projected government expenditure by 2021. However,getting to that price point will require some hard decisions to be made, particularly as PSLincreases its footprint inmoremarginal areas in 2017, which is likely to result in higher unitcosts.

• Long-termfundingforPSL:ThePSLpilotisbeingfundedthroughacombinationofgovernmentandphilanthropic financing; themajorityof the financial risk in thepilot isbeingabsorbedbyphilanthropicfoundations. Inthemediumtolongterm,asustainablefinancingstrategyneedstobeinplacethatdoesnotrelyonexternalphilanthropicfunding.ThiswillrequiretheMinistrytoworkcloselywiththeMinistryofFinanceandDevelopmentPlanning(MFDP)toensurethatthenationaleducationbudgetincreasesasplanned,and/orforin-countrydonors,suchasUSAIDandtheWorldBank,tocommitfundstoPSL.PSLschoolsreceivetheequivalentof$50perchildintheformofschoolstaffsalariespaiddirectlytothestaffthemselves,thesameastraditionalpublic schools. The PSL schools also receive an extra $50 per child raised by philanthropy inorderto"turnaround"theschoolsininitialyears.Intheshort-term,thesecanbethoughtofasimplementation costs attributable to the execution of new school management practices,learningenvironmentpolicies,etc.The$50amountforprogrammingwasdeterminedgiventhatthis is the estimate that theMoE spends on programming at public schools through variousalbeit non-equitably distributed aid-funded intervention programs. Consequently, a spend ofapproximately$100perchildinaPSLschoolisthesameasisexpectedtobespentinanon-PSLpublicschool.Itisexpectedthatinthenext3-5years,theMoE/GoLitselfwilltakeonthespendof$100perchildperyear,withapproximately$50goingtowagebillsand$50goingtoprogramcosts.ThepremiseofPSL is thatwhile the interventionmaybedonororaid fundednow, thecostof continuing theprogramandexpanding itnationally iswithin the financial reachof theGovernmentof Liberia. This is a critical partof theprogramdesign. SomePSLoperatorshavealsoindependentlysecuredadditionalfunding,forexample,tosupport initialR&Deffortstheybelievearenecessarytoimprovestudentlearning.

3.6. PSLpartnerrolesandresponsibilitiesTheMinistryofEducationhassuccessfullymobilizedacoalitionofpartnerswhoarecommittedtoimprovingeducationaloutcomesonLiberiathroughPSL.Managinganycomplexpartnershiplikethisischallenging,andthereisneedtotightenuproles,responsibilitiesandaccountabilitiesinyeartwo.Thetablebelowoutlinestherolesofeachpartnerduringthepilotyear.

14

Partner RolesandResponsibilities

MinistryofEducation Overall responsibility fordecisionmaking;commissioning,qualityassurance,financingandregulationofoperators,projectmanagementandperformancemanagement,policydevelopment

Advisors(ARKEPG,AGI) Policy advice, projectmanagement, operator and evaluator commissioning,capacitybuildingofMinistryteam,dataanalysis,fundraising,communication

Evaluationteam(PrincipalInvestigatorsandIPA)

Design of the randomized control trial (PIs); data collection through schoolandhouseholdsurveys(IPA)

PSLfunders(Vitol,UBS,ELMAandothers)

Scrutinize PSL budgets, challenge sustainability pathway, engage otherfunders

Fundersofindividualoperators(Mulago,VITOL,andothers)

Bilateralfundingrelationshipswithindividualoperators

15

4. Externalevaluation4.1. OverviewoftheexternalevaluationThe externally commissioned evaluation will compare the 93 PSL schools to regular governmentschools in the control group, to test whether non-state management improves teacheraccountability as measured by absenteeism, time on task, and ultimately improved studentperformance. Complementary analysis will assess the sustainability, scalability, and relative cost-effectivenessofthisPPPmodel,aswellasitseffectsonequity.Finally,theevaluationitselfwillserveas a prototype for an overarching layer of "results-based accountability", linking payments andcontractsforprivateoperatorstodemonstratedimprovementsinenrollmentandstudentlearning.AsetofFAQsprovidingmoredetailonthescopeanddesignoftheevaluationisavailablehere.Minister Werner requested that Justin Sandefur be the academic advisor to PSL and principalinvestigator on the evaluation. Following a transparent and competitive bidding process, IPAwasselected to be the evaluation agency. An academic advisory board consisting of Pauline Rose,MichaelKremerandKarthikMuralidharanhasbeenestablished.4.2. ObjectivesandscopeoftheexternalevaluationThe objective of the external evaluation is to provide a rigorous, independent measure of theeffectiveness, equity, and sustainability of the PSL program in delivering quality education toLiberianchildren.To investigate thesequestions, theevaluationwill collect surveydata fromparents, teachers,andstudentstomeasurebothintermediateinputs(e.g.,schoolmanagement,teacherbehavior,parentalengagement), and final outcomes (i.e., student learning outcomes). Data will be collected onintermediate factors to provide insights into why PSL schools did or did not have an impact.Specifically,theevaluationwillstudytheimpactofthisprogramon:• Accesstoschooling(i.e.,enrolmentandattendanceratesincommunitieswithandwithoutPSL

schools)

• Learning outcomes of students attending PSL schools (i.e., the effectiveness of these schoolscomparedtoregularpublicschools)

• Teacher behavior (e.g., absenteeism, timeon task, use of corporal punishment, and teachers'jobsatisfactionandturnoverrates)

• School management (e.g., monitoring visits, support and training for teachers, investment inschoolinfrastructureandmaterials,andextra-curricularactivities)

• Parentalengagementineducation(e.g.,educationexpenditure,involvementinschoolactivities)• Perceptionoftheprogram(i.e.,howdoteachers,parents,andstudentsfeelabouttheprogram)• Equity,asmeasuredbythesocio-economiccompositionofstudentswhoaccessPSLschools• Equity,asmeasuredbyspillovereffectsonnearbynon-PSLschoolsImpacts on eachmeasurewill be assessed by comparing improvements over time in PSL schoolscomparedtocontrolschools.Theevaluationwillalsoassesscost-effectivenessbycollectingdataonoperators’implementationcostsandmodelingthefinancialsustainabilityoftheprogram.Improvementsinlearningoutcomestaketimetomanifestandtheevaluationteamisawareofthis.Thus, capturing significant impacts in intermediary outcomes can provide insights onwhetherweexpecttheprogramtoshowgreaterimprovementsinlearningoutcomesinthefuture.Allof theseactivitiesare intended to informpolicydecisionsby theGoLand internationaldonorsabout continuing or scaling-up the PSL program, while simultaneously informing internationaldebatesaboutthedesignofPPPsineducation.

16

4.3. EvaluationdesignThiswillbea randomized impactevaluation (RIE)or, synonymously, a randomizedcontrolled trial(RCT).ThekeycharacteristicofanRCTisthatparticipationintheprogramisrandomlyassignedbythe researchers, and conclusions are drawn by comparing participants to a control group.Randomizationhelps ensure that anydifferencesbetweenPSL schools and control schools reflectthetrueimpactoftheprogram,andnotpre-existingdifferences.InthecaseofthePSL,randomizationwasdoneattheschoollevel.Withinthelistofeligibleschoolsapproved by theMinistry and each operator, the evaluation team randomly assigned half of theschools to participate in PSL. The randomization for the PSL evaluation used a matched-pairdesign. In other words, each PSL school has a matched control school (i.e., a traditional publicschoolnotinPSL).Thematchingwasdonebasedoncounty,district,andschool-levelcharacteristics.TheRCTwillrelyonthreetofourroundsofdatacollection:• Baseline:September2016• Midline:July2017• Midline:July2018(TBC)• Endline:July20194.4. EvaluatingtheperformanceofindividualoperatorsEvaluatingtheperformanceofindividualoperatorsisnottheprimarypurposeoftheevaluation,andit has not beendesigned tomake these kinds of comparisons. The reason for this is very simple:different operators will be working in different geographical locations. Some operators will havemostly urban schools in or near Monrovia, while others will have mostly rural schools that arehardertoreach,withmoremarginalizedpopulations.Furthermoresomeoperators,whichareabletodoindependentfundraising,willhavelargerbudgetsperpupil.Thismakesitdifficulttocomparelikewith likeas inputswillvaryacrossthedifferentmodalities.Forexample,someoperatorshaveconductedindependentfundraisingtoenablestartup,R&Defforts,publishingofnewtextbooksforuse under the Liberian national syllabus, or to allow a larger per-pupil budget. Costs of creatingtextbooksorsoftwaremaybeunderstooddifferentlythandirectschooloperations.AkeymessagehereistokeepinmindthatthisisanevaluationofthePSLprogramasapolicy.Theevaluationwillaskwhether thePSLpolicyworks in theLiberiancontextgiven thesetofpotentialoperators available to the Ministry of Education. While it won’t be possible to make reliablecomparisons between operators, it will be possible to make limited statements about individualoperatorsontheirown,especiallythoseoperatingalargernumberofPSLschools.The official evaluation report will focus first and foremost on the overall effect of the PSL, notindividual operators. However, the Ministry of Education will have access to operator-level datacompared with their equivalent control schools. A presentation of operator-specific results willemphasize that operators ran schools in different contexts, with different processes for vettingschools,andthesamplesizesforanyonegivenoperatorwouldn’tsufficeforarigorousevaluation.Itisunlikelyanyonewillbeabletodetectstatisticallysignificantdifferencesacrossoperatorsduetosamplesizes.Thismeansthateven ifsomeoperatorshavebetteroutcomesthanothers, itwillbeimpossible to tell from the datawhether this is truly due to differences in the outcomes, or justnaturalvariationinthedata.Belowistheminimumdetectableeffectforeachoperator:• BRAC:0.4SD• BridgeInternationalAcademies:0.37SD• MorethanMe:0.78SD• LIYONET:1SD• Omega:0.41SD• Rising:0.87SD• StellaMaris:1SD

17

• StreetChild:0.52SDThese power calculations will be included in the pre-analysis plan. An absence of statisticalsignificanceforaparticularoperatordoesnotmeanthattherewasnotanimpact-itcouldbethatthesamplewastoosmalltodetectasmaller,butstillmeaningful,impact.Essentiallyforoperatorstakingonfewerschools, it isquiteunlikely theevaluationcoulddetectan impact foranyof theseoperatorsontheirown,eveniftheyaresuccessfulandachieveimpressivelearninggains.Finally,notethatsmalldifferencesinlearninggainsbetweendifferentoperatorsarealmostcertaintooccur,andtheseareunlikelytobestatisticallysignificant.InordertostatethatagivenoperatorhadanimpactthatwassignificantlylargerthantheaveragePSLimpact(ortheimpactofanyotheroperator)thesedifferenceswouldhavetobequitelarge.4.5. DisseminationofresultsThe announcement of PSL provoked considerable controversy both in Liberia and globally, withsomeinternationalmediaattentionandresponsesfromtheUNandvariousadvocacyorganizations.TheMinisterofEducationandthepartnersofthePSLprogramarekeenlyawarethatthisprogramisunderscrutiny.Onepositiveresultofthisscrutiny isthatweexpecttherigorousevaluationofthePSLprogramtogarnerawideandeageraudience.There are twobroad routes throughwhich findingsmay influencepolicy: first, bydirectly guidingmedium-term planning decisions in Liberia, and second, by using Liberia as a testing ground togeneratebroaderknowledgeabout thedesignandeffectivenessofPPPprograms thatcan informpolicydebatesinothercountriesandininternationalorganizations.a)DirectimpactonLiberianpolicydecisions• Detailed government report: The report will provide specific recommendations on the

scalabilityofPSLschoolstoimproveeducationinLiberia.StudyingPSLschoolsafterthreeyearsofoperationwillprovideanaccuratedescriptionofthelong-runimplicationsoftheprogram.

• DirectengagementwiththeMinisteranddonors:Todate,theresearchteamhascollaboratedclosely with the PSL team in the Liberian Ministry of Education, and expects this closecollaborationtocontinuethroughtheresearchprocessanddisseminationstage.

b)BroaderimpactonglobalpolicydiscourseThereareseveral routes throughwhich the researchwill impact theglobalpolicyconversationonpublic-privatepartnershipsineducation:• Academic journal publications: Themain academic article, unlike the report for the Liberian

government, will focus on knowledge from the PSL program that can be generalized andthereforeisusefulinothercontexts.ThisreportwillfocusonthedesignofthePSL,andwhetherandhowthesefeaturestranslateintogreateraccountabilityandimprovestudentlearning.

• Directengagementwith investorsandfunders:Severalmajor investors inprivateschooling inthedevelopingworldhavealreadyexpressed interest in this research, and theevaluatorswillmaintain an open dialogue with these parties. In addition, results of the research will bepresentedtomajorpublic-sectordonorsininternationaldevelopment,includingatseminarsattheWorldBank,UKDepartmentforInternationalDevelopment,USAID,etc.

• Mediaengagement:Asresearchresultsemerge,theevaluationteamwilldisseminatefindingswithmediacontactsandcomposeoneormoreop-edpiecesbasedontheresultstopromoteabalancedandnuancedunderstandingtheresults.

• Policybrief:Asastartingpointformediaandpolicyengagementwiththeresearchresults,theevaluatorswillproduceapolicybriefsummarizingthemainfindingsfromtheacademicarticleandtranslatingthemintopolicylessonsforthepolicymakers.

• Richanonymizeddata setof185+ schools in Liberia:Acompleteanonymizeddatasetwill bepublishedalongsidethejournalarticleandplacedindatarepositoriessootherresearcherscaneasilyaccessitandexploreadditionalquestionsabouteducationinLiberiaandPPPprograms.

18

5. Financialmodel,scaleandsustainabilityplan5.1. FinancialmodelforPSLpilotyearoneDuringthefirstyearofthepilot,theoperatingexpensesfundingformulaiscalculatedasfollows:Governmentper-childexpenditure: $50perchildperyearPhilanthropicsubsidy: $50perchildperyear

The$50externalsubsidywascalculatedbyanalyzingtheexpectedtrajectoryofgovernmentfundingoneducationoverthenextfiveyears,seesection5.2onsustainability.Subsidypaymentsarecappedat65childrenperclass(whichexplainsthedifferencebetweentotalandeligiblestudentsinthetablebelow).Aminimumpaymentof$12,500perschoolispaid(250children)sothatoperatorsmanagingsmallruralschoolsarenotdisadvantaged.

BRAC LIYONET MtM Omega Rising StreetChild StellaMaris Bridge Total#Students 6,267 977 1,086 5,878 1,101 3,265 1,160 7,752 27,486

#Eligible 5,450 1,000 1,500 4,944 1,250 3,018 1,160 7,000 18,322

Payment $273k $50k $75k $247k $62k $151k $58k $388k $1,304k

Theadditionalcostdriversintheyearonebudgetaretheexternalevaluationandthegovernmentcapacitybuildingprogram.Theevaluationcostis$800,000inyearone,duetotworoundsofschoolandhouseholdsurveystakingplaceatbaselineandtheendoftheacademicyear.

Cost(yearonepilot) $000Operatingsubsidy(government) 1,374Operatingsubsidy(philanthropic) 1,304Evaluation 860Governmentcapacityprogram 350Totalcost 3,828

Totalphilanthropicfundingrequired 2,513

Notethatthebudgetabovedoesnot includefundsraisedby individualoperatorstosupporttheirlaunchinPSL.Insomecases,thisextrafundingisconsiderable,outweighingtheirsubsidypaymentsseveralfold.Thesecostshaveincluded R&D, capacity building, procurement, and transaction costs.5.2. SustainabilityForPSLtobesustainable, itneedstobefundedfromdomestic financing,ordonor financingfromlong-term in-country donors. PSL cannot rely on short-term philanthropic funding. Both financingstrategiesarecurrentlybeingpursued.5.2.1. DomesticfinancingCurrentper-pupilspendforbasiceducationinLiberiais$50,accordingtothelatestdatafromEMIS2015 and MFDP3. A comparison of regional counterparts shows that Liberia commits less toeducation thanmanycountries (seegraphbelow).Burundi’sGDPperperson is just63percentofLiberia’s,buttheirshareofgovernmentspendingoneducationissignificantlyhigherat17percent.Liberia allocates just 14.4 percent of public expenditure to education of which an estimated 40percentgoestobasiceducation,belowthe20percentand45percentrespectivelyrecommendedbythe Global Partnership for Education. Higher education and TVET account for 48 percent of

3MinistryofEducationdata.

19

education spending in the country, despite educating just 100,000 students compared to over 1millioninprimaryandsecondaryeducation.Percentageshareofexpendituretoeducationinlow-incomecountries

RecognizingthisunderinvestmentinbasiceducationtheGovernmentplanstodramaticallyincreaseexpenditureinrealtermsandasapercentageofpublicexpenditureoverthenextfiveyears.InlinewithrecommendationsfromtheGlobalPartnershipforEducation4,andaspartoftheneweducationsector plan, Liberia will increase expenditure on education to 17 percent by 2020; growing basiceducationasapercentageofeducationspendingto34.4percent5(seetablebelow).BasedonIMFprojectionsforGDPgrowth,sectorexpenditureasawholewillincreasefrom$82mto$137mduringthatperiod(seetablebelow).Analyzing expected increases in student numbers, this increased investment translates to aprojectedpupil spendof$101atbasiceducationby20206.During the sameperiod salarygrowth(currently58percentoftotalsectorexpenditure)willberestrictedtojust6percent7.PSLwillactasatestcaseforwhatcanbedonewiththeincreasedefficiencyandeffectivenessofaPPP,butwillalsoprovideapowerfuldemonstrationoftheimprovementsthatcanbeachievedwithan increased sector budget. Therefore, the operating budget of schools will be pegged at $100throughoutthepilot.ThiswillprovidetheMinistryofEducationwithacompellingcasetolobbyforincreasedexpenditureoneducationinthefuture.Intheinterim,PSLwillrequiredonorfunding.

Year 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21

Economicgrowthrates,fiscalyears8 8.2% -0.2% 5.1% 6.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 8.0%

Adjustmentpathto17%ofnon-grantexp 12.8% 13.1% 14.4% 15.3% 16.2% 17.0%

Govtexpenditurelessgrants9 542 731 636 620 630 681 743 810

Ministrysectortargetgvtbudget,USDmill 82 82 91 104 120 137

Thissustainabilitystrategyisreliantoneconomicgrowthincreasingasprojected.Thisclearly

4GPEisrequestinganincreaseto20%andbasiceducationaccountingfor9%oftotalgovernmentspend.LiberiawillnotmeetthisrequirementandwhilethenumbersindicatedhereareambitioustheyalsorepresentLiberia’sconsideredapproachaccountingforfeasiblechangeover5years.5TVETandtertiaryexpenditurewillbefrozennextyearandriseby3%infollowingyears.6AlsoincludestransferofresourcesfromECEtoPrimarytoaccountforoveragechildrencurrentlyinECE7Thisalsoincludesassumptionsofsalarychangesduetoprocessofpayrollverificationandcleansing(fundedbyBigWinPhilanthropy).8BasedonMFDPfiguresthathavebeenreviseddownwardssinceIMF-GoLprojectioninDecember2015.ThisisbecauseDomestictaxrevenuehasunderperformedsofarthisfiscalyear;thisispartlyhangoverfromtheEbolacrisis-thefiguresassumeupturnoncerecoverytakesholdlaterin2016.9Modelprojectsthattheshareoftotalgovernmentnon-grantexpendituretoGDPwouldfallfromaround31%to27%overthelengthofthefive-yearperiod,basedontheIMFDecembergrowthforecast.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

WorldBank,2013

20

containsrisk.PSLismitigatingtheriskbyalsopursuingfundingstreamsfromthein-countrydonorpartners.5.2.2. DonorfinancingSection1.2.5describedthedonorlandscapeinLiberia,andtheexceptionallyhighdonortodomesticfinancing ratio. This means that in theory, the national donor partners should be a source ofsustainablefinancingforPSL.DespitethelevelofdonorfinancingforeducationinLiberia,thechanceofPSLleveragingitisbynomeanscertain.Donorfundingtendstobecommittedtoprogramsinmulti-yearcycles(forexampleUSAID and the EU are in the process of contracting largemulti-year programs focused on out ofschoolchildren).PSL is included inthenewEducationSectorPlanandbudget, tothetuneof$15millionoverthreeyears.This isa significantmilestone.However,whileall thenationaldonorsabovehaveendorsedtheplan,itdoesnotcommitthemtofundingagainstit.PSLwillneedtobeabletogeneraterigorousevidenceandconvincedonorstosupporttheMinistryinthispriorityprogram.5.3. ScalingfromyeartwoonwardsMinisterGeorgeWerner’s vision is to scale PSL so that it haswidespread, systemic and enduringimpactonLiberia’seducationsystem,disruptingthestatusquoandensuringabettereducationforLiberia’schildren.Atthesametime,thecapacityoftheMinistryofEducationneedstobebuiltsothatitcanleadandmonitorPSL,andembedtheprogramintopolicyandbudget.Withapoliticaltransitionupcominginlate2017,theMinistryisanalyzingoptionsforyeartwo,witha commitment to a sensible scaling plan that best positions PSL for success. To help guide thisanalysis, anumberof scalingprincipleshavebeen identified, togetherwith financial scenarios fordifferent ratesof scale.All require significantexternalphilanthropic funding,and theMinistrywillidentify a sensible scaleplan,whichbalancesnational coverageandmomentum forPSL,with theunfundedfinancialliabilitythiswillgivetothenextgovernment.TheMinisterandPSLpartnerswantPSLinyeartwotoachievebetternationalcoverageandbetterequity.Inyearone,theschoolschosenforthePSLpilothadmoreteachersandbetterinfrastructurethan the average schools in Liberia.Manywere deliberately chosen because theywere closer totowns or roads and easier to access. Thus, one criticismof the pilot is that it is not reaching thepoorest and most deserving schools in Liberia. (Though it should be noted, the pilot has a lowproportionofschoolsinMonroviarelativetotheoverallEMISdata.)Thegoalforyeartwoistoreversethebiasesinyearone,andensurethatPSListrulynationaland“pro-poor”.Wehavesampledschoolsacrossall15counties, inanattempttocorrect for theoverallocation in certainareas in yearoneandendupwitha total coverage (combiningyearoneandyeartwoschools)thatisnationallyrepresentativeofLiberianslivinginpoverty.A fundamental challenge for the PSL is achieving scale in the short term. Domestic, bilateral andphilanthropy funding cannot be accessed fast enough to make the program truly equitablenationally.PSL schoolsalreadyexist in45of the98educationdistricts.Additionalequity couldbeachievedbyexpandingacrossalleducationdistricts so that thereare twoPSLschoolsperdistrict.These schools can act as learning hubs for professional development of principals, teachers, andlocal government officials thereby improving capacity, as well as being a mechanism to capturemodularinnovationsfromthePSLthatcanbedisseminatedacrossthefulleducationsystem.Forexample,anidealscenariowouldbefordonorstocommittotechnicalassistancepackagestosupportquarterlydevelopmentdaysintwoPSLschoolsineachdistrict.Thoseprofessionaldevelopmentdayswouldbeopentoalleducatorsinthedistrict,oneforteachersandanotherforPrincipalsandschoolboards/PTAs.Inadditiontogovernmentschools,theseprofessional

21

developmentdayscouldincludeeducatorsfromprivateschoolsasweknowtheyservesomeofthepoorestcommunitiesinLiberia.5.3.1. Principlestoguidescalingdecisionsa) Placetheinterestsofthechildatthecentreofdecisionmakingb) Scalebasedonevidence

• Decisionswillbemadebasedonevidenceofoutcomesandthecapabilityofoperatorstoexpandathighquality

• PSLfunderswillbeencouragedtopart-fundtheevaluationaspartoftheirgrantc) Placeastrongfocusonequityandnationalrepresentation

• Prioritywillbegiventotheunderservedcountiesanddistrictsofthecountry,whichalignswiththeMinistry’sanddonorprioritiestofocusonruralareas

• PSL will reach each of the 15 counties in year two, and ensure a more nationallyrepresentativecoverage,particularlyaddressingpro-poorproportionality

• PSLaimstoreachtwoschoolsineachofthe98educationdistrictsandserveaslearninghubsforeacheducationdistrict,asfundingallows

• The requirements of individual operators will be second order to equity priorities,however every effort should be made for operators to cluster with others to improvesustainability

d) Chartacoursetowardssustainability• PSLshouldnotgivealargeunfundedfinancialliabilitytotheeducationsystem• True sustainabilitymeans theMinistry absorbing the full ormajority cost of PSL in the

long-termtoreducedonordependencyandincreasesovereignty• Operatorswillberequiredtoshowtheir trajectorytowardsrunningschoolsas$100per

child• Philanthropicfundingshouldberiskcapitalfortheearly(one-three)yearsoftheprogram,

ratherthanalong-termfundingstreame) EnsuretheMinistryhassufficientcapacitytomanagePSL

• Qualityassuringandholdingaccountabletheexisting93PSLschoolsischallengingfortheMinistrywithcurrentcapacity.ThisisarisktothequalityandcredibilityofPSL

• FundersfromyeartwowillbeencouragedtofundMinistrycapacityf) Ensureprinciplesofgoodgovernanceandrobustprocurement

• PSLwillimplementanefficient,transparentandcompetitivecommissioningprocess• PSLwillencouragethedevelopmentandexpansionofthemulti-operatorinitiative

g) Equity is also dependent upon sufficient infrastructure in place to deliver low cost scalablesolutions, for example that schools need to be accessible for materials delivery and fieldsupport.Thisincludesthateachschoolshouldbeservedbycellphonecoverageforsupportoverphoneanddata,essentialinachievingscaleandequity,aswellasimprovingquality.

5.3.2. FinancialscenariosforscaleinyeartwoPSLhasgeneratedgreatinterestwithinandoutsideofLiberia,aswellasgreatscrutiny.Anyscalingplans for year two will almost certainly attract attention from those who both support and arehostiletoyeartwo.MinisterWernerhassaidthatanyexpansionneedstobesensible,underpinnedbyprinciplesoftransparency,equity,qualityandsustainability.PSLoperatorsinyearonehavesubmittedinitial indicationsoftheirself-assessedcapacitytoscale.Thisamountstoapproximately450newschools(withthemajority–350–beingBridge).Thissumsto550, including the yearonePSL schools. Theseoperator submissionswill be consideredby theMinistry,togetherwiththeprinciplesoutlinedinsection5.3.1andtheirperformanceinyearone.Thechartbelowshowstheexternalsubsidyrequiredforanumberofyeartwoscenarios.Notethat

22

the first scenario,93schools,meansnoscale; i.e. continuationofyearoneschoolsonly.The finalscenario,550schools,meanstheadditionof450newschoolstoPSL.Assumptionsincludedwithinthemodel,plussomealternativeoptions,arenotedbelow.Externalfundsrequiredfor93,150,200,400and550PSLschoolsinyeartwo

Yeartwobudgetat93,150,200,400,550schools

93schools 150schools 200schools 400schools 550schools

#Pro-poorschools 0 75 100 200 275

#Children 27,260 43,500 58,000 116,000 159,500

Schoolop-ex(gvtcontribution) 1,363,000 2,175,000 2,900,000 5,800,000 7,975,000

Schoolop-ex(extlcontribution) 1,313,000 2,392,500 3,190,000 6,380,000 8,772,500

Evaluationcost 850,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000

Govtcapacitybuildingcost 350,000 375,000 400,000 450,000 450,000

Totalcost 3,876,000 5,442,500 6,990,000 13,130,000 17,697,500

Expecteddonorcontribution 0 0 0 0 0

Philanthropicsubsidyrequired $2,513,000 $3,267,500 $4,090,000 $7,330,000 $9,722,500

Assumptionsandoptions• A pro-poor premium payment (PPPP) will be included. This will ensure that operators have

sufficient resources todeliverhighqualityeducation to children in remoteanddisadvantagedcommunities.Currentlythisiscalculatedasanextra$10perchild.

• A per-child funding formula may not be the right model going forward, given the Ministry’sobjectivetocovermoreruralandremoteareas.Assumingtheseschoolshavelowerenrolmentonaverage, financial viabilityat schoolunit levelmaybechallenging.However, if the formulawerechangedtoaddressthis(e.g.aschoollevelratherthanchildlevelpayment)theaggregatesubsidyacrossallPSLschoolsshouldnotexceedthe$50+$50perchild.

• ThemodelincludesthreeyearsofECE.TheMinistrymaywanttoconsiderreducingthistooneortwoyears,therebyreducingthetotalcosttothesystem.

• TheMinistrymaywant toconsider limiting thenumberof schoolsanyoneoperatorhas,asaproportionof total PSL schoolsor total Liberianprimary schools. Thiswouldbe toensure thecontinuation of the multi-operator model and to mitigate criticism from hostile partners.However, this would need to be balanced with assessment of the capacity of individualoperatorstoscale,andtheirtrackrecordinyearone.

$2,513,000$3,267,500

$4,090,000

$7,330,000

$9,722,500

$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

94schools 150schools 200schools 400schools 550schools

Schoolop-ex(externalcontribukon) Evaluakoncost

Governmentcapacitybuildingcost Philanthropicsubsidyrequired

93