Partner 68 Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel
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Transcript of Partner 68 Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel
Partner 68
Center for Environmental Systems Research
University of Kassel
Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund
RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68
WaterGAP-overview-
Water usemodel
Water usemodel
Hydrology model
Hydrology model
Water AvailabilityWater Availability per 0.5° grid-cellper 0.5° grid-cell
Water WithdrawalsWater Withdrawalsper sectorper sectorper country/grid-cellper country/grid-cell
socio-economicsocio-economicdatadata
physiographicphysiographicdatadata
climateclimatedatadata
Water Stress-per basin-
Water Stress-per basin-
Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund
RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68
SOIL WATERBALANCE
SOIL WATERBALANCE
Rain & SnowmeltRain & Snowmelt
ActualEvapotranspiration
ActualEvapotranspiration
Surface Runoff &
Groundwater Recharge
Surface Runoff &
Groundwater Recharge
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-Hydrology Model-
RIVER DISCHARGE
RIVER DISCHARGE
Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund
RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68
What we have done:
•Task 6.2.1 Preparation of the model WaterGAP (completed)
•Task 6.2.4 Definition of critical impact thresholds (completed)
•Task 6.2.3/ Task 6.2.8 preliminary sensitivity analysis and
response surfaces (completed)
Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund
RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68
Sensitivity analysis and response surfaces
for 18 case study river basins
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Lule River
Po
ElbeRhine
SeineLoire
Tagus
Douro
Glomma
Thames
Danube
ShannonVistula
KemijokiAngerman
Tiber River
Guadalquivir
Vaenern Goeta
Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund
RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68
Response of water availability to climate variations
Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund
RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68
In their response, the river basins can be divided into the three
groups: northern, central, and southern European basins
Fig.: RS for northern, central, southern European catchments
Guadalquivir (Southern
Europe)
Danube (Central Europe)
Lule (Northern Europe)
Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund
RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68
What we plan to do:
• M6.6 Sensitivity analysis and response surfaces based on ENSEMBLES climate data
• Use the threshold theory to identify crucial conditions of water resources
Points of discussion
• When will ENSEMBLES climate projections become available (and when will our results be required)
• River basins (selection of case study river basins)• Timeframe of underlying climate data ( depends on scenario
time frame – currently 1961-1990)• Format of response surface use uniform format