Participation in political debates through blogging

Florian Buhl, M. A. General Online Research

Mannheim, March 6, 2013

Participation in Political Debates through Blogging in Germany:

A Time-Series Analysis of the Relationship

between Political Blogs and Mass Media

Florian Buhl, M. A.

Weblogs – a (new) public arena for political communication

Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 2

Issue salience in mass media!

Issue salience in political weblogs

Issue salience in political system!

Scoial environment!

Adapted from Rössler (1997)

Florian Buhl, M. A.

Temporal patterns of participation in political debates


today! tomorrow! day after tomorrow!

...!...! yester-day!

Florian Buhl, M. A.

Potentials for agenda-setting effects between mass media and political weblogs

Ø Findings in the USA: Bidirectional relationships between political weblogs and mass media in agenda-setting processes (Wallsten, 2007; Meraz, 2011)




Orientation to salient issues to contribute to public

opinion formation

Orientation to emerging issues and to public (audience) salience

(Messner & DiStaso, 2008)

Florian Buhl, M. A.

Research questions

Ø Which temporal patterns of participation in poltical debates through blogging can be identifed in Germany?

Ø Are there indications for agenda-setting effects between political weblogs and mass media in Germany?


Florian Buhl, M. A.

Data: Number of news items on four political issues

•  Issues:

• Eurozone crisis • Arab Spring

•  International terrorism • Nuclear energy

•  Time frame: April 1st, 2011 – Juni 30th, 2011 (91 days)

Ø Daily number of news items on each political issue in evening TV news shows and in political weblogs during the 91 days time frame under study


Florian Buhl, M. A.

Data: Sampling and Methods

Evening TV news shows

•  Sample: 5 German evening TV news shows (ARD Tagesschau, ARD Tagesthemen, ZDF heute, ZDF heute-journal, RTL Aktuell)

• N = 8778 news items •  Secondary analysis of content analysis data provided by Media Tenor

Political weblogs

•  Sample: 10 political blogs with a main focus on politics sampled from the German Blogcharts (Netzpolitik, Fefes Blog, Nachdenkseiten, Alles Schall und Rauch, Carta, Politcally Incorrect, Die Achse des Guten, Internat Law, The Intelligence, Der Postillon)

• N = 6181 news items

• Original quantitative content analsyis


Florian Buhl, M. A.

Data analysis: Cross-correlational tests between time series

Ø Both for original frequencies and for white-noise components of time series identified through ARIMA modeling


Number of items on

issue!

Time series political weblogs!

Number of items on

issue!

Number of items on

issue!

Number of items on

issue!

Number of items on

issue!

Number of items on

issue!

Times series TV news !

yesterday! tomorrow!today!

Number of items on

issue!

Number of items on

issue!

day before yesterday!

Number of items on

issue!

Number of items on

issue!

day after tomorrow!

Time!

Time!

r at lag -2!

r at lag -1! r at

lag 0!r at lag +1!

r at lag +2!

Florian Buhl, M. A.

Results: Eurozone crisis


Total number of items Daily mean of items ARIMA modeling

TV news 500 5.49 (1, 0, 0) AR(1) = .57 con = 5.59

Weblogs 310 3.41 (0, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)7 MA(1)7 = .80 con = 0.43

Florian Buhl, M. A.

Results: Eurozone crisis

Ø Correspondence between issue salience in politcal weblogs and in TV news

Ø Issue salience in political weblogs is predictable from issue salience in TV news


Blogs precede TV news TV news precede blogs

Time lags (days) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Original frequencies .32* .19 .18 .12 .24* .22* .18 .47* .56* .37* .23* .18 .12 .18 .32*

Prewhitening .19 -.07 .04 -.09 .09 .13 -.10 -.02 .30* .23* .14 .06 -.05 .08 .14

*p < .05

Florian Buhl, M. A.

Results: Arab Spring



TV news 916 10.07 (0, 1, 1) MA(1) = .65

Weblogs 199 2.19 (0, 0, 0) con = 2.19

Florian Buhl, M. A.

Results: Arab Spring


Ø Issue salience in political weblogs is predictable from issue salience in TV news



Time lags (days) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Original frequencies .09 .18 .23* .21 .14 .17 .14 .24* .33* .16 .17 .29* .12 .09 .24*

Prewhitening -.15 .00 .12 .11 -.06 .01 -.09 .00 .23* -.02 -.03 .21 .01 -.04 .23*

*p < .05

Florian Buhl, M. A.

Results: International terrorism



TV news 390 4.29 (3, 0, 0) AR(1) = .45 AR(3) = .33

Weblogs 328 3.60 (2, 0, 0) AR(1) = .57 AR(2) = .31

Florian Buhl, M. A.

Results: International terrorism


Ø Synchronous relationship between issue salience in political weblogs and in TV news



Time lags (days) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Original frequencies .02 .01 .07 .19 .23* .32* .49* .71* .63* .67* .59* .50* .47* .37* .29*

Prewhitening .01 -.08 -.11 .03 -.13 -.02 .12 .61* .09 .17 .08 -.05 .13 .00 -.04

*p < .05

Florian Buhl, M. A.

Results: Nuclear energy



TV news 523 5.75 (0, 0, 0) con = 5.75

Weblogs 352 3.87 (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 0)7 MA(1) = .81 AR(1)7 = .34

Florian Buhl, M. A.

Results: Nuclear energy


Ø Issue salience in political weblogs and in TV news are not (positively) predictable from each other



Time lags (days) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Original frequencies .10 .13 .14 .24* .28* .18 .11 .37* .23* .34* .28* .18 .03 .12 .28*

Prewhitening .00 .08 -.04 .06 .06 -.08 -.23* .09 -.03 .11 -.07 -.12 -.20 -.04 .02

*p < .05

Florian Buhl, M. A.

Results: Summary of relationships of issue salience in political weblogs and in TV news

Original frequencies Prewhitening

Eurozone crisis

Correspondence

Weblogs predictable from TV news Arab Spring

International terrorism Synchronous

Nuclear energy No (positive) relationship


Florian Buhl, M. A.

Discussion

Ø Indications of agenda-settings effects of mass media on political weblogs

Ø Lack of indication of agenda-setting-effects of political weblogs on mass media – in contrast to findings in the USA

•  Lack of focal points in the German political blogosphere (Holler, Vollnhals, & Faas, 2008)

• German journalists‘ reservation towards the use of weblogs (Neuberger & Nuernbergk, 2010)

• Opinion-focused communication in political weblogs more connective in the USA




Florian Buhl, M. A.

References •  Holler, S., Vollnhals, S., & Faas, T. (2008). Focal Points und Journalisten – Bedingungen für den

Einfluss der Blogosphäre. In A. Zerfaß, M. Welker & J. Schmidt (Hrsg.), Kommunikation, Partizipation und Wirkungen im Social Web: Strategien und Anwendungen: Perspektiven für Wirtschaft, Politik und Publizistik (S. 94-111). Köln: Herbert von Halem Verlag.

•  Meraz, S. (2011). Using Time Series Analysis to Measure Intermedia Agenda-Setting Influence in Traditional Media and Political Blog Networks. Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, 88(1), 176-194.

•  Messner, M., & DiStaso, M. W. (2008). The source cycle: How traditional media and weblogs use each other as sources. Journalism Studies, 9(3), 447-463.

•  Neuberger, C., & Nuernbergk, C. (2010). Competition, complementarity or integration? The relationship between professional and participatory media. Journalism Practice, 4(3), 319-332.

•  Rössler, P. (1997). Die Definitionsmacht für Themen des politischen Diskurses in einer veränderten Kommunikationswelt: Agenda-Setting und die Individualisierungstendenzen im Online-Zeitalter – ein Szenario. In H. Schatz, O. Jarren & B. Knaup (Hrsg.), Machtkonzentration in der Mediengesellschaft? Beiträge zu einer Neubestimmung des Verhältnisses von politischer und medialer Macht (S. 78-97). Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag.

•  Wallsten, K. (2007). Agenda Setting and the Blogosphere: An Analysis of the Relationship between Mainstream Media and Political Blogs. Review of Policy Research, 24(6), 567-587.


Florian Buhl, M. A.

Thank you!

Florian Buhl, M. A.

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Participation in political debates through blogging

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