Participation in MAP D-PHASE / COPS Description of MAP D-PHASE project Implementation strategy Key...
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Participation in MAP D-PHASE / COPS
Description of MAP D-PHASE project Implementation strategy Key relevant features of GEM v3.3.0 Overview of verification opportunities Generation of experimental products Prototyping / proof-of-concept for Vancouver
2010 Olympics project
MAP D-PHASE Project
WMO-designated forecast demonstration project for the Swiss/German Alps region
Main emphasis is on QPF and flood forecasting DOP: 1 June – 30 November
Canadian contribution: 1x daily high resolution (2.5km) 24h forecasts for the D-PHASE region
MAP D-PHASE Project
Both deterministic and low/high resolution ensembles will be run by various centers: Ensembles: MOGREPS (UKMet), INM Multi-
model (Spain), COSMO-LEPS (ECMWF), MICRO-PEPS (DWD)
Deteministic: GEM (Canada), MOLOCH (Italy), AROME (France), MM5 (Universities)
Numerous hydrological models will be run either coupled or in offline mode
MAP D-PHASE Project
The MAP D-PHASE integrations will also be used by other related projects: MICRO-PEPS: A German proposal to combine
high resolution (> 3km) results into an ensemble for the DOP
COPS: GEM will be one of the 5 high resolution models used for COPS mission planning – plots are delivered daily to the COPS operations centre
These collaborations will enhance verification efforts
MAP D-PHASE Project
Verification(COPS data and model intercomparison)
Prototype / Proof-of-Concept(Preparation for Vancouver 2010 Olympics)
Experimental Products(New strategies for high resolution NWP)
Implementation Plan
Key Features of GEM 3.3.0
“Hollow cube” initialization parallelizes nesting and improves delivery time by >1h for GEM-LAM2.5 grids – this feature is mandatory for timely delivery during MAP D-PHASE
Nested M-Y microphysics implements a state-of-the-art multicategory bulk parameterization
“Growing orography” reduces gravity wave generation during the initialization shock
M-Y Microphysics
K-Y overpredicts in the lee of the Cascade Mts.
M-Y produces improved precip distribution
Growing Orography
Standard Nesting Growing Orography
Reduced shock during high resolution mountain runs eliminates much vertical motion noise
cross-section along idealized ridge line
D-PHASE Test Period
SLP (magenta), 1000-500 thickness (orange) and 250 hPa wind speed (colour bar)
GFS analysis(18 h before initialization)
L
D-PHASE Test Period
SLP (magenta), 1000-500 thickness (orange) and 250 hPa wind speed (colour bar)
GFS analysis(initialization time)
L
D-PHASE Test Period
700 hPa Nondivergent wind (yellow) and streamfunction (orange)
GFS analysis(18h before initialization)
D-PHASE Test Period
700 hPa Nondivergent wind (yellow) and streamfunction (orange)
GFS analysis(initialization time)
D-PHASE Test Period
700 hPa potential temperature (coloured lines) and winds, and coupling index
GFS analysis(initialization time)
D-PHASE Test Period
Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May
D-PHASE Test Period
Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May
D-PHASE Test Period
Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May
D-PHASE Test Period
Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May
D-PHASE Test Period
Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May
D-PHASE Test Period
Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May
D-PHASE Test Period
Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May
D-PHASE Test Period
Radar Reflectivity – 15 May
D-PHASE Test Period
Eumetsat IR image for 1100 UTC 15
May
D-PHASE Test Period
6h precipitation accumulation – 15 May
Common critisism of GEM-LAM2.5 products is a lack of objective verification measures
D-PHASE / COPS provide a unique set of verification opportunities: COPS observations (10 aircraft, microphysical instrumentation)
European / German / Swiss observing network (over 800 evenly-distributed gauges)
Model intercomparison (12 high resolution models are being run at least once daily)
WG-VER is designing a subjective forecaster verification toolkit for use during D-PHASE
D-PHASE Verification
Fuzzy high resolution QPF verification:
QPF Feature identification and displacement calculation
Threshold-based structure / amplitude /location (SAL) score
Objective comparison with enhanced resolution (4 km) surface analyses
D-PHASE Verification
traditional scores are compared in a neighbour-hood instead of at a point
Sample Fuzzy-verified ETS from the Swiss Alpine Model (aLMo)
Leverages recent developments designed to improve performance in mountains
Investigates the utility of new guidance products (e.g. high resolution ensemble)
Provides a unique verification opportunity:
enhanced observations during DOP intercomparison / new verification techniques
D-PHASE SummaryThe MAP D-PHASE project will serve as an Olympics testbed for high resolution NWP: