Partha Dasgupta (University of Cambridge) · 1 Partha Dasgupta (University of Cambridge) Sir Partha...
Transcript of Partha Dasgupta (University of Cambridge) · 1 Partha Dasgupta (University of Cambridge) Sir Partha...
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ParthaDasgupta(UniversityofCambridge)
SirParthaDasguptawasborninDhaka(atthattimeinIndia)in1942andgraduatedwitha
BScinphysicsfromtheUniversityofDelhiin1962beforeobtainingbothaBAin
mathematicsandaPhDineconomicsfromtheUniversityofCambridgein1965and1968
respectively.HetaughtattheLondonSchoolofEconomicsbetween1971and1984and
thenmovedtotheUniversityofCambridgein1985asProfessorofEconomics.Between
1989and1992,hewasonleavefromtheUniversityofCambridgeandservedasProfessor
ofEconomics,ProfessorofPhilosophy,andDirectorofthePrograminEthicsinSocietyat
StanfordUniversity.HeiscurrentlyFrankRamseyEmeritusProfessorofEconomicsat
Cambridge,FellowofStJohn’sCollege,Cambridge,andProfessorialResearchFellowatthe
SustainableConsumptionInstitute,UniversityofManchester.
ProfessorDasgupta’sresearchinterestsincludewelfareanddevelopmenteconomics,the
economicsoftechnologicalchange,population,environmentalandresourceeconomics,the
theoryofgames,andtheeconomicsofundernutrition.Hismost‐citedarticlesinclude,
‘NotesontheMeasurementofInequality’,JournalofEconomicTheory(1973),co‐authored
withAmartyaSenandDavidStarrett,‘TheOptimalDepletionofExhaustibleResources’,
ReviewofEconomicStudies(1974),co‐authoredwithGeoffreyHeal,‘IndustrialStructure
andTheNatureofInnovativeActivity’,EconomicJournal(1980),co‐authoredwithJoseph
Stiglitz,‘TheExistenceofEquilibriuminDiscontinuousEconomicGames,I:Theory’,Review
ofEconomicStudies(1986),co‐authoredwithEricMaskin,and‘InequalityasaDeterminant
ofMalnutritionandUnemployment:Theory’,EconomicJournal(1986),co‐authoredwith
DebrajRay.Hisbooksinclude,TheControlofResources(HarvardUniversityPress,1982),
AnInquiryintoWell‐BeingandDestitution(ClarendonPress,1993),HumanWell‐Beingand
theNaturalEnvironment(OxfordUniversityPress,2001;revisedversion,2004),and
Economics:AVeryShortIntroduction(OxfordUniversityPress,2007).
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ProfessorDasguptawaselectedaFellowoftheEconometricSocietyin1975,Fellowofthe
BritishAcademyin1989,MemberofthePontificalAcademyofSocialSciencesin1997,
MemberoftheThirdWorldAcademyofSciencesin2001,andFellowoftheRoyalSociety
in2004.HeisaForeignHonoraryMemberoftheAmericanAcademyofArtsandSciences
(1991),ForeignAssociateoftheUSNationalAcademyofSciences(2001),ForeignMember
oftheAmericanPhilosophicalSociety(2005),andForeignMemberoftheRoyalSwedish
AcademyofSciences(1991).HewasnamedKnightBachelorbyHerMajestyQueen
ElizabethIIinherBirthdayHonoursListin2002for“servicestoeconomics.”
IinterviewedSirParthaDasguptaathishotelinMontreal,Canada,wherehewasattending
theWorldCongressoftheAssociationsofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists.Itwas
theearlyafternoonofFriday,July2,2010.
BACKGROUNDINFORMATION
Youholdbachelor’sdegreesinphysicsandmathematics.HowdidyouendupwithaPhDin
economics?
Iwasintendingtobeahigh‐energy,particlephysicist,buttwothingsmademeabandon
thatambition.Onewasthatthesubjectwasgoingthroughwhatseemedtometobean
uninspiringpatchinthemid‐‘60s,althoughthatprobablyreflectedmyownintellectual
shortcomingsmorethanthestateofthesubject.TheotherreasonwasthattheVietnam
Warwasonand,likemanyotherstudents,Iwasbotheredbyit.Myfriendsamongthe
mathematiciansatCambridgeweren’tinterestedintheWar.Aphilosopherfriendinsisted
hedidn’thaveenoughinformationtohaveaviewabouttheWar.Ifoundthattheonly
peopleincollegewithwhomIcouldhaveinformativediscussionsontheWarandits
probablecauseswereeconomists,particularlyMarxists,whoprovidedmeone
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interpretation,andpoliticalscientists,whoinsistedonanotherclassofinterpretations.
Thatwasveryeducationalforme.
InmyowncollegeatCambridge,JimMirrlees(nowSirJamesMirrlees,NobelLaureate)had
donemathasafirstdegreeandaPhDineconomics.Igottoknowhimthrougha
discussiongroupwebothbelongedto,andheencouragedmetoshifttoeconomics.And
that’swhatIdid,in1965.
Asastudent,didanyofyourprofessorsstandoutasbeingparticularlyinfluentialor
inspirational?
Thegreatestinfluencewasunquestionablymyfather,whowashoweverneverformallymy
teacher.Hewasaprofessorofeconomicsandaprofoundeducationist.Hewasalsoa
terrificfather.Ourhomewasalwaysfilledwithvisitors:hisstudents,colleagues,and
friends.Also,betweentheagesof13and15,Iwenttoaschool(nowknownasRajghat
BesantSchool,Varanasi)thatwasphenomenallygood.Icameunderthespellofseveral
remarkableteachersthere.Aboutthreemonthsago,Ivisitedthecampuswithmywife.
Wespentaweekthere.Itwasanunforgettableexperienceforusboth.
Idon’tbelievetherewasanybodyatuniversityinDelhiwhoinspiredme.ButasaPhD
studentatCambridge,JimMirrleeswasabiginfluence.Hehadenormoustechnicalabilities
andIcouldtellheaskeddeepquestions.
Whydidyoudecidetopursueanacademiccareer?
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Thatwastheinfluenceofmyfather.IassumedIwouldbeanacademicbecausethat’sthe
onlylifeIhadknownatclosequarters.Ourhomewasregularlyfilledwithvisitors,who
wereoftendistinguishedacademics.Theywereinvariablykindtome,askedmequestions
andsharedtheirideas,evenwhenIwasveryyoung.ItwasbutnaturalthatIwouldbe
attractedtoalifeofthemind.AndIwas.ButwhenImovedtoeconomicsIwasn’tsetting
outtochangetheworldorhelpthepoor,oranythingsonoble.AllIwantedtodowasto
obtainaPhDandbecomeanacademic.IbelongtoacasteinBengal,India,thatnurtures
professionals,especiallydoctorsandteachers.Myoutlookmusthavebeennarrow,itnever
occurredtometoworkintheprivatesector,sayforabusinessfirm.IfIhadjoinedthe
privatesector,myparents’friendswouldhavemerelyinferredthatIwasn’taserious
person,mostcertainlynotagoodstudent[laughs].
Inthemidtolate1960s,atleastintheUK,studentsofmathematicswhohadconvertedto
economics(thereweren’tthatmany)wereviewedwithsuspicion.Didwehavethe“horse
sense”thatwasnecessaryforeconomics,senioreconomistswouldask.Forsomeyears
afterIobtainedmyPhDIwasunsuccessfulinobtainingatenure‐trackpost.Twoofthe
chaptersinmythesiswerepublishedintheReviewofEconomicStudiesalmost
immediately,sotheymusthavebeenreasonablepiecesofwork.Buttheyweretechnical
papers.AsIhadlittleformaltrainingineconomics,Iwasalsodiffident,andthatmayhave
showed.AboutthetimeIcompletedmyPhD,thatwas1968,Iobtainedaresearch
fellowshipatCambridge,spentayearatCarnegieMellonUniversityasavisitingassistant
professor,followedbyayearasavisitingfellowattheDelhiSchoolofEconomics.Then,in
thesummerof’71,threeyearsdowntheroad,IwasappointedtoalectureshipattheLSE;
butthatwasafterfivecandidateswhohadbeenplacedabovemehaddeclinedthe
lectureship!Ifyouaskmywifeshewilltellyouthatforalongwhileafterweweremarried
shewasworriedwhetherIwouldevergetajobthatwouldenableustosettledown.
Asaresearcher,whichcolleagueshavebeenparticularlyinfluentialorinspirationalmentors?
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AtthetimeIjoinedtheLSE,ithadaphenomenaleconomicsdepartment.(Itstilldoes.)
Bauer,Gorman,Hahn,Johnson,Morishima,Sargan,andSenareaformidablelistofnames,
byanystandard.(HahnhadleftforCambridge,butvisitedforadayeverytwoweeks.)
Noneofthemwasparticularlyinterestedinmyresearchinterests,though.Maybethatwas
becauseIdidn’thaveanyparticularinterestsinthosedays.IntellectuallyIwasstillquite
rootless.Butmyseniorcolleaguesweresupportiveoftheyoung.Iwasleftalonetogeton
withmywork,which,however,wasn’tmuch.Ithinkbeingleftalonewasgoodformy
development;itmeantIdidn’tgetdepressedthatIwasn’tproducingpapersbytheweek.I
wasinfluencedmorebymycontemporaries,especiallyJosephStiglitz,whomImetway
backin’65whenIhadjustmovedtoeconomics.Hewasinspiringeventhen,brimming
withideas.ThecontrastwithmewasallthemoresharpbecauseIrarelyhadanidea.I
oweStiglitzanun‐repayabledebtbecausehemademefeelasthoughIwascontributingto
ourjointwork,evenwhileIwasunsurewhatIwasbringingtotheproverbialtable.Geoff
HealwasanothercontemporarywhoseworkandengagementIfoundexciting.We
collaboratedallthroughthe1970sindevelopingtheeconomicsofexhaustibleresources.
AmongmyseniorcolleaguesattheLSE,IsawmuchofAmartyaSen,fromwhomIlearnt
howonemightinterpreteconomicdevelopment.Hehadstyleandaflairforpolemics.I
readprettymucheverythinghewroteatthattime.Inrecentyearsourvisionsofwhat
economicsshouldbeabouthavedivergedsomewhat.Thatmaybewhywehaven’tseen
muchofeachother.AsfarasIcanjudgehefeelsdevelopmenteconomicsshouldgetcloser
tomoralphilosophyandhasinfluencedinternationalagenciesandcharitiestoadoptthat
position,whereasIamconvincedthesubject’sgreatestweaknessliesinthatit’snot
informedbythenaturalsciences,especiallyecology.Idon’tthinkthefailureofofficial
developmenteconomicstosuccessfullyaddressextremepovertyanddemographicdistress
inthepoorestcountrieshashadanythingtodowithnotknowingwhatpovertyorjustice
mean,ratheritseemstometheanswerliesinthefactthatprofessionalshaveneglectedto
uncoverthepathwaysthatdeterminethepoverty‐population‐environmentnexus.Ifyou
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readSen’sfamous1999book,DevelopmentasFreedomandhisrecentbook,TheIdeaof
Justice,andmy1993book,AnInquiryintoWell‐BeingandDestitutionandmy2001book,
HumanWell‐BeingandtheNaturalEnvironment,youwillseewhatImean.Forexample,in
hisbookonjustice,Senmakesithiscentralpoint(orsoithasbeenreadbyreviewersinUK
newspapersandliterarymagazines)tocriticizeRawls’theoryofjusticeongroundsthatthe
theorycharacterizesthejustsociety,theattainmentofwhichpresupposesawell‐ordered
society;whereasausefultheoryshouldbeabletoprovideamoralrankingofunjust
societiestoo,evendysfunctionalsocieties.Idon’tknowwhetherSen’schargeagainstRawls
willbefoundbyexpertstostick,whatIdoknowisthathisviewofwhattheoriesofjustice
shouldofferisbreadandbutterinmodernwelfareeconomics.Theideaofasocialwelfare
function,nowover70yearsold,doespreciselythat.Itranksallalternatives;itdoesn’t
merelyidentifywhat’sjudgedbythetheoryofjusticetobethebest.TheoriesoftheSecond
Best,constructedbyJamesMeadein1955,areanillustrationofwhatImean.Buteventhe
usageoftheterm“secondbest”carrieswithitthethoughtthatthesocietyunderstudyis
nearlyjust.Soitstruckmesomeyearsagothatwhatneededdoingwastoapplytheideaof
asocialwelfarefunctiontoreworkwelfareeconomicsanddevelopaunifiedtheoryof
policyevaluationthatcoversnotonlyUtopia(theideallyorderedsociety)andAgathotopia
(Meade’snameforaGoodEnoughsociety),butalsoKakotopia(thenameIgaveto
dysfunctionalsocieties).Inmy2001bookIjustmentioned,Ididthat,anditrequiredofme
tostudyanumberofsocio‐ecologicalpathwaysthatsustaindysfunctionalsocieties.It
seemstomethat’swherethehardworklies,unearthingfurtherpathwaysthatarebound
tobesitespecificandtimespecific.ButIfoundnoreferencetothatapplied‐theoreticwork
inSen’sbookonjustice.ButatthetimeIspeakof,the1970sattheLSE,Ididn’tknowmuch
aboutdevelopmenteconomics,certainlyIdidn’tknowthenthewayIwouldsubsequently
cometoframeandstudythestateofaffairscalledpoverty.
Bythemid‐1970sIhadworkedonseveralfields.OnereasonImovedfieldsthenandhave
continuedtodosoisthatIhaven’thadapropertrainingineconomics.Workingonafield
hasbeenmywayofgettingacquaintedwithit.Forexample,whenIstartedworkingon
industrialorganizationandtechnologicalchangewithStiglitz(thatwasin1975or
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thereabouts),Ihadlittlepriorknowledgeofthesubject.Ignorancemayhavebeenahelp,
though.AsIdidn’tknowtheliterature,Iwasn’tmindedtomakeanadvanceonsomeone
else’swork.StiglitzandIsimplychattedaboutwhatmightdriveanentrepreneurto
innovate.Oncewehadarrivedataformulation,Iwassufficientlyintriguedtoread
SchumpeterandScherer,whowereverymuchworthreadingofcourse;butitwasaswellI
hadn’treadthembefore.TheirstylewasverydifferentfromtheoneStiglitzandIadopted
inourattempttounderstandthecharacteroftechnologicalcompetition.
Ignorancehashelpedmyworkoverandoveragain.Forexample,evenaftercompleting
thefirstpaperGeoffHealandIwrotetogether,ontheoptimaldepletionofexhaustible
resources,Ididn’tknowofHotelling’snow‐famouspaperof1931.Inthisinstanceevenmy
coauthordidn’tknowit.WelearntofthatpaperfromRobertSolow.Myguessisthatif
we’dreadthepaperbeforestartingourwork,wewouldhavemodeledtheproblemasan
extensionofHotelling’swork,whichwasentirelyMarshallian,partialequilibrium.Heal
andIknewsomecapitalandgrowththeory,sowefounditnaturaltoembedthe
exhaustibleresourceinalargereconomy.Iliketothinkourpaperhelpedframethe
contemporaryliteratureonsustainabledevelopment.
GENERALTHOUGHTSONRESEARCH
Thereisanincreasingemphasisatmanyeconomicsdepartmentsonappliedresearch.Isthis
trueatCambridge?
YesandIamallforit.Icertainlytriedtobringmoreappliedpeopleintomydepartmentin
CambridgewhenIwasChairman.Ifeltwewereparticularlyweakthere,especiallyin
appliedmicro‐econometrics.Traditionally,theFacultyofEconomicsatCambridgehas
beenofahighlytheoreticalbent.Onereasonisthat,atleastsinceWorldWarII,therewas
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aseparatedepartmentcalledtheDepartmentofAppliedEconomics(DAE),whichhadbeen
establishedowingtoKeynes’urgings,essentiallytoadvisehimonthekindofnumerical
figuresheneededforhisownwork.IcanonlythinkCambridgewasamostpatriarchal
society(laughs).TheDAEbuiltitsreputationonitsfirstDirectorRichardStone’s
innovativeworkonconsumptionandthesocialaccountingframeworkthat’sneededto
describeaneconomy’sdoings.ItmaybethatbecausetheDAEwasinthesamebuildingas
theFacultyofEconomics,appointmentsintheeconomicsdepartment,whichdidmostof
thelecturing,weremainlyineconomictheory.WhenIwasastudent,thegreatnames
wereJoanRobinson,NicholasKaldor,andPieroSraffa,whowerealltheorists.Itmakesme
blusheventothinkofwhatRobinson,Kaldor,andSraffathoughtappliedeconomics
amountsto.Theyreallywerehard‐lineMandarins.IthinkAustinRobinsonwastheonly
appliedeconomistofnoteintheFacultywhenIwasdoingmyPhD.JamesMeadewasalso
intheFaculty,andhestraddledboththeoryandempiricalpolicywithenormous
distinction,butthepoliticsintheplaceatthattimewassovirulentthatheremainedan
outsiderevenwhileoccupyingtheProfessorshipofPoliticalEconomy.
Asyouknow,appliedeconomics(bywhichImeanappliedmicroeconomics)hasgrownby
leapsandboundsinthelast30to40years,butourdepartmentisnotyetabalancedone.
Weareprettystronginmicroeconomictheory,notsostronginappliedmicroeconomics.
Macroeconomicsremainsamysterytome.MeanwhiletheDAEhasclosed.Thequalityof
itsresearchhaddeteriorated.Likemostotherthink‐tanks,itsurvivedonsoftmoney,
whichmeantithadtochaseresearchprogramsthatotherswereinterestedin.That
doesn’tdomuchfortheuniversityitinhabits.That’snottosaytherearen’toutstanding
researchcentresbuiltonsoftmoney.TheInstituteforFiscalStudiesisexcellent,butthat’s
inLondon.
Whatdoyouseeasthevalueofpureversusappliedresearchineconomics?
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Botharevaluable.I’mnotabelieverin“relevant”theory,though.It’shardtotellin
advancewhen,ifever,goodtheorywillturnouttobeusefulinpractical,policyterms.Take
thecaseofFrankRamsey’s1928paper.Ramseyaskedhowmuchofaneconomy’snational
incomeshouldbesaved.1Itwasahighlymathematical,esotericpieceofwork.Foralong
whilethepaperlanguished,probablybecausetheworldenteredadepressionandnobody
wasinterestedinthelongrun.ButafterWorldWarII,peoplebecameinterestedinthe
long‐termdevelopmentofnations,suchasIndia,andRamsey’swastheobvioustheoretical
toolforoneclassofquestions,concerningtheoptimalmagnitudeandcompositionof
investmentactivityovertime.SoRamsey’squestionandthewayheframeditbecame
usefuleventoeconomistswithahugeinterestinpolicy,suchasJanTinbergen.Atthetime
IwasworkingonmyPhD,myteacherssuchasJoanRobinsonusedtothinkRamsey’spaper
wasabouthowmanyangelsareabletodanceontheheadofapin.Recentlythepaperhas
madeanotherreturnintheeconomicsofclimatechange.Ramsey’spapercontainstheonly
machineryavailableforthinkingaboutthelong‐termtrade‐offs.
Myfatheroncesaidthatifyouseeapieceoftheorythatlooksdirectlyapplicable,you
shouldbesuspicious.Ithinkhemeantthatifthetheoryissodesignedthatthegap
betweenitsformulationandapplicationissmall,thereshouldbeasuspicionthetheory
mayhavebeendoctoredtosuittheanswerdesiredbyitsauthorsortheirpatrons.The
advantageofmaintainingacertaindistancebetweentheoryandpolicyisthatitencourages
theauthortoseekdeepanswers,notshallowones.I’mnotsayingalltheoreticalpapers
shouldbelikethat,butit’sthemoreesoterictypeoftheoreticalworkthatgetscriticizedfor
theirlackof“relevance”.Myfatherprovidedasophisticateddefenseofpuretheory.
Howwouldyoudescribeyourownresearchagendaandhowhasitchangedovertime?
1RamseyF.P.(1928),‘AMathematicalTheoryofSaving’,EconomicJournal,Vol.38,No.152,pp.543‐559.
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Mostofmyworkhasbeenonwhatisoftencalled“appliedtheory”.Nooneisthebestjudge
oftheirownwork,butIbelievemuchofmyworkhassprungfromthegroundup,
motivatedbysomephenomenonouttherethatdemandsaninvestigation.Ofcourse,being
atheoristbytemperamentandtraining,Iprettysoonliftthephenomenonupmanymiles,
sothatitmayevenbecomeunrecognizablebythetimeIamdonewithit,butIliketothink
it’sstilllikelytobeusefultosomeoneconcernedwiththephenomenon.
Doyouthinkitisimportanttohavebroadresearchinterests?
It’samatterofpersonaltaste,nothingmore.GerardDebreuisagoodexampleofsomeone
whodidfoundationalwork,butnevertookinterestinanythingotherthananarrowsetof
veryabstractproblems.AndWassilyLeontiefappearedtometoberatherdull(input‐
outputtables,notmuchelse),butIonlymethimwhenhewasquiteold.Debreuisone
extreme.AttheotherendisKennethArrow,whoisinterestedinahugenumberof
problemsandcanexplainwhyweshouldbeinterestedinthem.Andofcourse,hehas
writtenfundamentalpapersonprettymuchanysubjecthehastouched.In1975Icame
across,quitebychance,hisshortbookTheLimitsofOrganization,andittransformedmy
work.IhadknownArrow’sworkonsocialchoice,generalequilibrium,technicalprogress,
health,andeconomicexternalities,ofcourse,butasIreadthatlittlebookofhis,Icouldfeel
thatatlastIknewwhatbasicresearchinthesocialsciencesamountstoandhowtogo
aboutit.AmongeconomictheoristsofmygenerationJoeStiglitzhasthewidestreachin
termsofresearchinterests.Heissimplyphenomenal.
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Doyouthinkthereisanydifferenceinthetypesofworkdonebyresearchersatdifferent
stagesoftheircareersbasedontenureconcerns,publicationrequirementsorother
pressures?Shouldtherebeadifference?
Theanswertothefirstpartofthequestionis“yes.”TheAmericanPhDprogramisvery
muchlikeanapprenticeship,whichEnglandisnowmimicking.Studentstendtotaketheir
supervisors’researchlead.Thismeansthatatanearlystage,youareshapedbysomeone
else’sstyleofresearch.Andthereisnoquestionthat,intellectually,wearehistory‐
dependent.Ourcapitalstockiscreatedbythetimewe’re27or28,andittakesquitesome
timetoovercomeitandbreakoutonone’sown.
Theanswertothesecondpartofthequestionisalso“yes.”ManyyearsagoBobSolowput
itnicely.IfIrememberhimcorrectly,hesaidthereallyhardproblemsinthesocial
sciencesrelatetopolicy.Thathoweverlookseasy,whichiswhyeventaxidriverswithno
trainingineconomicsspoutonit.Solowsaidthetechnicalstuffisrelativelyeasy,although
seeminglyverydifficult.Healsosaidhelikedyoungeconomiststogettheirfingersburnt
inthetechnicalstuffandwouldn’ttrustsomeonewiththepolicystuffifheorshehadn’t
undergonethetechnicaltest.
Intheend,doyouthinktheeconomicsprofessionhashelpedtobringoutandshapeyour
researchforthebest?
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Ithinkso.Ihavebeenveryluckyandtheprofessionhasbeengoodtome;butinan
unusualway.Judgingbycitations,orratherthelackofthem,mostofmysoloworkhas
goneunnoticed,butbytheremarksmycolleaguesmake,Ihavethesensetheyapproveof
thetitlesofmypublications.RecentlyIhadtoprepareIntroductionsforapairofvolumes
ofmycollectedpapersthatOxfordUniversityPresswillbepublishing,soitmademe
reflectonwhatothersweredoingwhenIworkedonaparticularsetofproblemsandwhyI
chosetoworkonthemandhowIframedtheproblemsandwhy.Iguesssuchreflective
momentsareasignofgettingold!IndraftingtheIntroductionsitcametomethatIhavea
non‐standardwayofframingsocialproblems.Forexample,Ihavewrittenextensivelyon
thepoverty‐population‐environmentinterface.Butithasn’thadtheslightestimpacton
developmenteconomistsoronenvironmentalandresourceeconomists.Andthepaperson
populationandfertilitybehaviourhavegoneunnotedbyeconomicdemographers.Itmay
bethatIamremorselessintryingtolinkseeminglydisparatefeaturesofdailylife,and
becauseweeconomistsaretrainedtoconsiderthemonlypiecebypiece,oneatatime,my
analysesprobablyappearsalientomycolleagues.Forexample,ifI’mstudyingtheway
ruralpeopleusenaturalresources(e.g.disappearingforests),Ican’tresistmodelingsuch
otherhumanactivitiesintheworldofthepoorasreproduction.Theproblemformeisthat
thetypicalenvironmentaleconomistisunfamiliarwiththeword“poverty”,the
developmenteconomistwon’tknowhowtospell“environment”,andtheeconomic
demographerthinksfertilitydependsentirelyonthevalueoftime.SoIfaceaproblem.
WhatcontinuestosurprisemethoughisthatthisintellectualdistanceIfeelthatseparates
mefrommycolleagueshasn’tmademeanoutsider:Ihaveenjoyedmorethanmyfair
shareofhonours.
Oneadvantageofframingproblemsinaquirkyfashion,it’snotaconsciousdecisionof
course,isthatI’vebeenabletogetonwithmythinkingwithouthavingtocompetewith
others.YouwillnoticefrommyCVthatIhavemanypapersonthesamesubject.One
reasonIhavedonethisisthatwhenworkingonmyownIhaverarelyarrivedatan
understandingofthephenomenonIwasstudyinginonepaper;it’sbeenalmostalways
incremental.Discoveryformehasusuallymeantagrowingrealization,rarelyarevelation.
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IhavebeenabletoindulgeinthatslowprocessbecauseIwasawareIwouldn’tbebeaten
tothepostbysomebodyelse–nobodyelsewouldbeworkingonmyproblems,most
certainlynoonewouldhaveframedtheproblemsinthewayIdo!So,Ihavehadavery,
veryluckylife.Colleaguesseemtoapprovemywork,eventhoughmostlytheydon’tread
anyofit(laughs).
IDEAGENERATION
Wheredoyougetyourresearchideas?
Byobservation,Iguess.Ononeoccasionintheearly‐‘80s,whenpassingthroughCalcutta
onmywaytovisitmyparentsinSantiniketan,Inoticedthatthebabyofamotherbeggar
onthesidewalkwasbeingmolestedbyflies.Ithought,“That’sodd.Whyisn’tthebaby
swattingtheflies?”Thenitdawnedonmethatthebabywasconservingenergy.That
eventuallytriggeredmyjointworkwithDebrajRayonmalnutritionandthecapacityto
work.Ofcourse,hehadbeenthinkingalongsimilarlinesbeforewemetatStanford,which
ishowwecametocollaborate,butitwasacasualobservationthatledmetoseekatheory
thatwouldcoverwhatIhadobserved.WhenRayandIdiscoveredwehadbeenthinking
alongsimilarlines,weclosedthedeal,sotospeak,andproducedouranalysis.
IfyoutravelbytraininWestBengal,youwillnoticethateveryvillagehasapond,
supplyingwaterfordrinking,washing,andcultivatingrootcrops.Onseveralsuchjourneys
Iobservedthatvillagershavebuilttheirhomesveryclosetooneanotheraroundtheir
pond.Why?Oneansweristhatyouhavemorelandforcultivationifyoucrowdthehuts.
Itoccurredtomethatanotherpossibleanswerwasthatclosenesswouldenablepeopleto
observeeachother’sbehavioureasily.Weknowoftheoldadagethatinthethirdworld
there’snoprivacy.Butmaybeyoudon’tenjoyprivacybecauselifethereisbuiltonsocial
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norms.Therearefewprivatepropertyrightstothosecommons,sopresumably
communitieshavehadtodevisenormsofbehavior.Andnormsofbehaviorinvolve
sanctionsformisbehavior.Buthowdoyouknowsomebodyhasmisbehaved?Youhaveto
observeit.Thoseproblemsledmetothethennascentliteratureonsocialcapital,andI
triedtounderstandtheconceptintermsofmodernresourceallocationtheory.
Atwhatpointdoesanideabecomeaprojectthatyoudevoteresourcesto?
I’veneverhadaprojectinthesensemostpeoplemeanbyaproject.I’veneverappliedfora
researchgrant.Myguessisthatyouhavetohaveafairlywell‐definednotionofwhatyou
wanttoaccomplishwhenyouapplyforagrant.ButmostlyI’venotevenbeenableto
framethequestionIwastacklinguntillocatingtheanswer.So,bythetimeImighthave
beeninapositiontoapplyforagrant,I’dcompletedthepaperandmovedontoanewset
ofproblems,onesthatIwouldbeunabletoarticulate.Ofcourse,Ihaveenjoyedgrants
indirectly.ForseveralyearsJoeStiglitzincludedmeinhisgrantapplications,butitwashe
whohadanideaofwherewewouldbeheading.
Myresearchpracticesareveryold‐fashioned.Idoalltheancillaryworkthat’sneededtobe
doneinpreparingapaper:readingotherpeople’swork,referencing,checkingcitations,
proof‐reading,thewholeworks.EvennowIdon’tGoogleforreferences;Igotothelibrary
andbrowse.Thelatterisapleasureinitself.InthecourseofbrowsingIfrequentlyfind
veryinterestingthingstoread,materialIdidn’tknowexisted.Mybook,AnInquiryinto
Well‐BeingandDestitution,hasabout65pagesofreferences.Believeme,Iread,oratthe
veryleastglancedat,eachoftheitemsmentioned,allinlibraries.ForcertainchaptersI
usedtowalktothelibraryofAddenbrooke’sHospital(ourUniversityhospital),quitea
distancefromtheUniversityLibrary,becausethat’swhereIcouldbrowsetheliteratureon
clinicalunder‐nutrition.Indescribingmylongstandingworkhabit,Iamneither
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apologizingnorbragging.It’showIhavealwaysworked.Ihavealwaysfeltchasing
materialispartofmyjob.
IDEAEXECUTION
Whatmakesagoodtheoreticalpaper?
Itshouldhaveasurprise.
Whatmakesagoodempiricalpaper?
Goodappliedworkdoesn’tnecessarilyhavetohaveasurprisebecauseyoumaybe
engagedinrepeatingapreviousinvestigationinadifferentgeographicallocation.Thatcan
beextremelyvaluablework.Youmaydiscoversubtledifferencesfromthefindingsof
previousinvestigators,andthatmightsuggestthatthephenomenonissite‐specific,a
frequentcharacteristicofphenomenainthesocialsciencesandchallengingtothetheorist.
Oftenitmaybethatyouareinvestigatingthesamephenomenonothershaveexamined,but
youaredeployingbettertools;andsoon.Forexample,thetheoreticalmodelsKenneth
Arrow,KarlGoranMaler,andIhavebeendevelopingoverthepastfewyearsshowthat
thatwealthchangesratherthanmovementsinGDPpercapitaarethetrueindicatorsofthe
progressandregressofnations.Butthen,whatiswealth?Itmustbethevalueofall
capitalassetsofaneconomy.Doesthatincludenaturalcapital?Ofcourseitdoes.So,ifa
nationalincomeaccountantclaimsthatthesavingsratioinBrazilisnearly15%,weshould
respondbyinsistingthatthestatisticdoesn’ttakeintoaccounttheforeststhatarebeing
16
razedthere.That’sdepreciationandshouldbedeductedfromsavings.Ifaccountantsbuy
theargument,theywouldrepeattheexercisebydeductingforestdepletion.Theresearch
wouldn’tbenovelintheconventionalsense,butitwouldbeilluminatinganduseful.
Whenyouhita“brickwall”onapaper,doyoucontinuetoworkontheproblemordoyoutake
abreakfromitandworkonsomethingelse?
Itakeabreakandthen,USUALLY,serendipitously,Igetananswer.EricMaskinandIonce
workedonapaperthattookustenyearstocomplete.Itwasontheexistenceof
equilibriumingamesinwhichpayofffunctionsarediscontinuities.Itwasveryesoteric
stuffingametheory(notthesortyouwouldboreyourpartnerwith),butMaskinandI
thoughtitwasimportanttodeterminewhethersuchgamespossessNashequilibria(in
mixedstrategies).Prettyquicklywemanagedtoproveanexistencetheorem,butitwas
onlyforsymmetricgames,meaningthatplayerswereassumedtobeidentical.Nowwe
couldhavetriedtopublishthatresult,infactallthethenexistingtheoreticalmodelswith
discontinuouspayofffunctionsweresymmetrical,whichisaperfectlysensiblemodeling
strategytoadoptwhentryingtocapturesomethingelseaboutthephenomenaouttherein
theworld;butMaskinandIchosenottosubmitourresultforpublication.Andthereason
wedidn’tisthatweknewwehadn’tdugdeepenough,westilldidn’tunderstandthe
underlyingstructureoftheproblem.So,wesatontheproblemforsomemoretime.Then,
inonesetofinterchangeswefoundasimpletrickthatenabledustoprovetheresultinits
generality.
Relatedtothepreviousquestion,whenitappearsthataprojectisn’tgoingtoturnoutas
hoped,doyouscrapitoraimtosendthepapertoasecond‐tierjournal?
17
Ihavebeenenormouslylucky.I’verarelybeeninvolvedinapaperthathasn’teventually
beenpublished.Therehaveofcoursebeenoccasionswhenasubmissiondidn’tget
accepted,butIalwaysinterpretedrejectiontomeanIhadn’tdraftedtheworkwell.That
meantworkingontheproblemsomemoreandimprovingtheexposition.ButIdon’tthink
Ihaveentirelyabandonedanywork.AndI’vealsohadamazingluckwitheditors.Over40
yearsIhavefoundjournaleditorsalmostalwaystobefairandencouraging.Journal
editorsgenerallygetabadpress,sotherewasoneoccasionIcan’thelprecalling,to
illustratehowshrewdandfair‐mindededitorscanbe:
Inthemid1980smyfriendDebrajRayandIdevelopedatimelessgeneralequilibrium
modelinaworldwherenutritionaffectsproductivity,aprojectImentionedearlier.There
weresomeinterestingtechnicalproblemsthatthemodelthrewup(havingtodowithnon‐
convexitiesinnutrition‐to‐productivitytransformationpossibilities),anditshowed,among
otherthings,howandwhyequilibriumallocationscanviolatehorizontalequity,inthe
sensethatverysimilarpeopleendupwithvastlydifferentutilitylevels.Arrow‐Debreu
equilibria,asyouknow,satisfytheprincipleofhorizontalequity.RayandIshowedthatin
arichworldtheprinciplewouldbemaintained,butnotinapoorworld.Andweidentified
severalotherpropertiesofthemodel,eachofwhichspoketotheworldwebelievedwe
knewinIndia.Sowefeltwehadunderstoodsomethingofimportanceaboutthenatureof
poverty;andwesubmittedthepapertotheEconomicJournal.Inreturnwegotareferee’s
reportthatwas8pageslonginA4,singlespacedpaper,offeringasmanyreasonsasyou
caretonumberastowhythepapershouldberejected.Therefereebasicallyhadsatdown
andaskedhowmanyreasonshecouldthinkoffornotlikingthepaper.RayandIcouldtell
therefereewastechnicallyproficient,butwecouldalsotellthathehadlittleimagination
andsufferedfromaninabilitytodiscovergeneraltruthsfromnon‐standardmodels.Now
youwouldthinktheEditor,whowastheeconomichistorianCharlesFeinstein,wouldhave
writtentometoaskwhyIhadwastedhistimesubmittingsuchashoddypieceofwork.
Buthedidn’t.Hesmeltsomethingnotrightinthereport,therefereehadgoneforover‐kill,
sohewrotetosaythat,obviously,hecouldn’tacceptthepaperasitwasdrafted,butthathe
wouldpublishitifRayandIre‐wroteit,havingdealtwithallthereasonstherefereehad
18
collatedforrecommendingrejection.RayandIdidthat,andthepaperwaspublishedin
twoinstallments.Idon’tknowifmanypeoplehavereadthepaper,butithasbeenthe
basisonwhichIhavetriedtounderstandpovertytraps.
Whatwouldyousayhasbeenthebiggestchange,inthecourseofyourcareer,inhowyour
researchfieldsconductresearch?
Peoplearealottensernowaboutresearchthantheywereinmytime.Icanseethat
amongstyoungcolleagues.Lifefortheresearcherishardertoday.Thereisfargreater
competition.Moreover,familylifehaschangedbeyondrecognition.Andremember,
economicsremainsamaleprofession.InUKeconomicsdepartments,womenaverage
round10percentofseniorappointments.Responsibilitiesathomeamongmaleshave
changedenormouslyandthataddstothepressure.IliketothinkIwasagoodfatherand
husband,butthedivisionoflaborbetweenmywifeandI,onethatwereachedwithout
thinking,wouldbeunthinkabletoday.
THEWRITINGPROCESS
Whichaspectofthewritingprocessdoyoufindmostdifficult?
Iusedtofindwritingdifficult,buthavinggainedexperienceovertheyearsIfinditmuch
easiernow.Thewordprocessorhasofcoursehelped.Ifrequentlytaketheleadinwriting
afirstdraftwhenworkingincollaboration,largelybecauseIenjoycomposingpapers.In
19
theprocessofdrafting,basedonnotes,Iatlastbegintounderstandthepointofthepaper
wehavebeenworkingon(laughs).
COLLABORATION
Whenyouworkwithco‐authors,howdoyoudecidewhomtoworkwith?
IfyoulookatmyCV,youwillfindanenormousamountofcollaborativework.Swapping
ideasisalwaysgoodanditalsoencouragesfriendship.Conferencesareterrificbreeding
groundsforcollaborativeresearchandmyguessisthatsomepersonalrelationshipsdo
thendevelop.Butinmycase,thecausalchainhasbeenthereverse.Almostalwaysthe
collaborationstartsoveraconversationwithafriend,maybeoveradrink,anideacomes
up,andthenweworkonittogether.Joe(Stiglitz),Eric(Maskin),Karl‐Goran(Maler)and
Geoff(Heal)werefriendsfirst;collaborationcamelater.InthecaseofKenArrow,
collaborationbeganmanyyearsafterwefirstmet,butthat’sbecauseIusedtobeterrified
ofhim.Itwasnofaultofhis,butforalongtimeIfoundconversationswithhimanagony.
Itslowlydawnedonmethattheproblemwaswithme,thatArrowbelieveseveryoneisas
deepandquickashe.That’stheonlyintellectualerrorIhaveeverknownhimtomake,but
onceIrealizedhewouldn’tnoticemyintellectualshortcomings,Ifounditpossibleto
collaboratewithhim!It’sbeennotonlyaprivilege,butawhollypleasurableexperience.
Howdoyouinteractwithyourco‐authors(bye‐mail,phone,orface‐to‐facemeetings)?
WithMalerit’sbeenfacetofacediscussions,butthat’sbecausewehavemetfrequently
overtheyearsinconnectionwiththeteachingprogrammesheandIhelpedtoinitiatein
SouthAsiaandsub‐SaharanAfrica.WithMaskin,too,it’sneveronthephoneorbye‐mail,
20
it’salwaysbeenface‐to‐face;butthat’sbecauseovertheyearsheandhiswifeGaylehave
madeitapointtostayintouchwithus,ashavemywifeCarolandIwiththem.Maskinand
Ihaveadiscussionandthenwedoourwritingseparately.We’reabouttowriteapaperon
aproblemwherewedon’tknowwhichoftwomodelsweoughttousetoillustratethe
pointwewanttomake.Hehasone,Ihaveanother.Butwewillwritedownbothmodels
andthendecidewhichbestmakesthepointswewanttomake.
WithStiglitzitusedtobewalksinOxfordorPrincetonorwhilehecookedsupper.He
wouldtalknineteentothedozen,throwingoutonemodelafteranothertocapturea
phenomenonweagreedwasworthunderstanding.WithKenArrowit’sbeenameetingor
twowherewehavediscussedaproblem,followedbye‐mailexchangesonhowbestto
modelthephenomenon,orasina5‐waypaperwehavejustcompleted(withLarry
Goulder,KevinMumford,andKirstenOleson),mostofthediscussionswereheldover
conferencecalls.
SEMINARPARTICIPATIONANDNETWORKING
Howimportantisnetworkingtosuccessinresearch?
It’sveryimportant.Itwasveryimportantevenintimeslonggone.Isolationisnevera
goodthing.IremembertalkingtoFredHoyle,thegreatastrophysicist,whocourted
notoriety.Asweallknow,heheldontothesteadystatetheoryoftheuniverse.Henever
gaveuponit,partlyIbelievebecausehechosetobeisolated.Iamtoldbyfriendswho
know,thathisbestpaperswereearlycollaborativeefforts,likehisworkonhowheavy
21
elementsarecookedupinthestars.ButwhenImethim,itmusthavebeentenyearsago,
helivedoutofreachfromuniversitycampuses.Ontheoccasionwesatnexttoeachother
atdinneratStJohn’sCollege,Iaskedhimifhedidn’tfeelisolated.Andhereplied,“Oh,no,
that’stheadvantage–Idon’tgetcontaminatedbyotherpeople’sideas.”Ithoughtitwas
sadthatsuchapowerfulmindcouldbesowrong.
Towhatextentistheabsenceofdepartmentalcolleaguesworkinginone’sareaamajor
disadvantage?
Idon’tthinkit’samajordisadvantage.AsImentionedearlier,attheLSE,Iwasisolatedin
termsoftheworkIwasdoing,butIalwayshadaccesstothegreatmindsthere.
Conversationswithpowerfulminds,eveniftheydon’tworkontheproblemsyouworkon,
isalwayshelpful.Itkeepsyoualertandpreventsyoufrombecomingsloppy.Theysetthe
standard,ifyouseewhatImean.Forexample,inFrankHahn’spresenceonecouldnever
sayanythingremotelyimprecise;hewouldtellyouinaboomingvoicethatyouhad
slackenedyourintellectualmuscles,maybeeventhatyouhadbeeneducatedbeyondyour
naturallimits.Andwhowantstobetoldthatinpublic?Moreover,eventhoughmy
colleaguesattheLSE,andlateratStanford,didn’tworkonmyproblems,theywereworld
expertsintheirfieldsofexpertise.Icould,anddid,picktheirbrainsforwhattoread.
WhenIwasatStanfordin1989‐91,workingonmybookonWell‐BeingandDestitution,it’s
notthatanyofmycolleagueshadmuchinterestinthesubject,butIcouldalwayscollar
themonthecorridorforaquicktutorialonsometechnicalmatterIhadn’tunderstood,or
neededareferencetoapaperthatwouldexplainsomethingIwantedtounderstand.My
colleaguessavedmehoursofworkbytellingmewhattoreadandexplainingsomethingI
hadnotunderstood.
COMMUNICATIONOFRESEARCH
22
Howdoyoufindtherightbalancebetweencommunicatingyourresearchatanearlystage
versusthe“close‐to‐finished”stage?
IthastobeaprettyfinishedpaperbeforeIputituponmywebsite.Ifyouhavethatoption,
youshouldexploitit.Inthepast,youhadtorelyonbeingpartofadiscussionpaperseries
thatwasthenmailedtoarestrictednumberofpeople.Beingabletoretrieveother
people’swritingseasilytodayisanenormousboon.
Whataretheuniquechallengestogivingaseminarandhowdoyouovercomethem?
Ihaven’tbeenworriedaboutseminars.IthinkI’mfairlyarticulate;inanycase,Ilike
teaching,andI’mgenerallynotshytotalkaboutmyownwork.Ofcourse,therehavebeen
occasionswhenaseminarhasgonebadly;butthat’sgenerallybeenbecauseIwasn’t
particularlyproudofthequalityofthepaperIwaspresenting.Ifyoudon’tfindyourown
workexciting,youraudiencewillknowthatprettyquickly,whichiswhenyoustart
wonderingwhentheseminarwillend.
Doyouhaveanyadviceforayoungscholarongivingaseminar?
Beexcitedaboutyourpaper.Ofcourse,theproblemissomewhattheotherwayin
America,wherethereisabundantself‐confidence.AndsotheadviceIwouldgivetoyoung
scholarsthereis,don’toverrateyourself.Veryoften,Ihearseminarswherethepresenter
thinkshe(it’sstillusuallya“he”)hassolvedtheworld’sgreatestproblem;worse,heoften
seemstobesellingaproduct.Overconfidenceinthequalityofyourownworkcandistort
yournotionofwhatisgenuinelyimportantwork.I’mnotsayingyoushouldbehumble,but
23
it’sonethingtobeself‐confidentandateasewithyourself,it’sanothertothinkthatyouare
thegreatest.JustreadapageortwoofArrowandyouwillrealizeyouarenot.
PUBLICATION
Howdoyoudecideupontheappropriatejournaltosendyourworkto?Related,whomdoyou
viewasthereadershipofyourresearch?
Atmyage,Iwritequiteanumberofpapersthatareinvitedones.Youwriteinastyle
appropriatefortheoccasion.Butonthewhole,Ihavetendedtosendmyresearchpapers
tojournalswherethereaderismorelikelytobeinterestedinwhatIamdoing.It’sa
marriage;thereisanaturalplaceformostarticles.
Doyouthinkthatthecurrentstructureofthepublicationprocessineconomicsfacilitatesor
impedesscientificunderstandingandknowledgeproduction?
Today,thereisanobsessionwiththetopfivejournalsandIthinkit’sabsolutelydreadful.
It’sstallingprogress.Ifeelsobadforyoungscholarsbecausetheyareconvincedtheyhave
tosubmittheirworktoEconometricaortotheAmericanEconomicReview,wherethereis
morethan95percentchanceitwillberejected;thattooaftertwoyears.Itcanthenbethat
afterthreeyearsintoyourfirstjobyoustillhaven’tgotapublication.Attheendoftheday,
it’sthequalityofthepaperthatmattersratherthanwhereithasbeenpublished.The
problemis,people,especiallythoseareonappointmentsandtenurecommittees,don’t
appeartohaveconfidenceinjudgingapaperforitsquality.Sotheylookforqualitybythe
journalinwhichitwaspublished.
24
Thepracticehassoannoyedme,it’snowarrivedinCambridge,thatsomeyearsagoIran
anexperimenttojudgehowtopthetop5journalsare.Asyouknow,overtheyearsthere
hasbeenabigincreaseinthenumberofeconomicsanthologies.ThepublisherEdward
Elgarhasproducedmorethan100anthologies,onvariousthemesineconomics.What
theydoistoprintabout500copiesandsellthemataveryhighpricetolibraries.Theyare
clevertocommissionwell‐knownpeopleaseditors.Thoseanthologiesareveryusefulto
universitylibrariesinpoorcountries.Theycan’taffordbooksorjournals,butatastretch
theycanaffordanthologies,whichgivestudentsandscholarstheopportunitytoreadthe
classicsintheirfield.Forteachingpurposesinathird‐worldcountry,theyareinvaluable.
WhatIdidwastoperuseadozenEdwardElgaranthologies.Afterall,ifexpertshaveedited
anthologies,theycouldbereliedupontoknowwhat’sstoodthetestoftime.Myvery
cursoryresearchsuggestedthatthemajorjournalsineconomicsareoverrated.Mostofthe
papersinthoseanthologieswerepublishedinjournalsotherthanthetop5.Thepointit
seemstomeisasimpleone.Thetop5journalspublishexcellentarticlesoncurrently
fashionabletopics.Thesignalingeffectofabilityiscertainlystrong.Butpapersthatmay
havelastingvalue,orarenovel,getcrowdedoutbygoodbutstandard‐qualitypaperson
hottopics.Isuspectsomeoftoday’sbestpapersareappearinginsecond‐tierjournals.It
wouldbeinterestingifsomeoneweretodoamorethoroughstudyofanthologiesthanI
wasabletodo.
Howwouldyoubestdescribeyourapproachtodealingwitha“reviseandresubmit”request
fromajournal?Howaboutanoutrightrejection?
I’veneverhadaquarrelwithaneditor.Therehaveofcoursebeeninstanceswheremy
submissionhasbeenrejectedandwhereIcouldhavewrittenalettershowingthatthe
25
refereewasperhapsilliterate;worse,prejudiced.ButIneverfelttheneedtodothat.What
ItookawayfromarejectionwasthatI(orIandmyco‐author)hadnotdraftedthepaper
well.UsuallyIhavere‐draftedarejectedpaperandpublisheditelsewhere,sometimesina
betterjournal.
In1996,youhelpedtoestablishthejournal,EnvironmentandDevelopmentEconomics.Part
ofitspurposeistoprovideanopportunityforscholarsindevelopingcountriestopublishtheir
findingsinaninternationaljournal.Doyouthinkthereshouldbemoreexamplesofjournals
likethis?
Yes,ofcourse.Butifthejournalisgoingtobeanygood,submissionsmustgothroughthe
samescreeningprocessthatotherjournalsinsiston.Youmustn’tintroduceaffirmative
action.Howdoyouachievethat?Youneedtoensurethatthreethingshappen.First,the
editormustn’tnecessarilychuckapaperinthewayheorshewouldhaveifitwerea
standardjournal.Ifthereisasemblanceofanideainthesubmission,theeditorneedsto
besympatheticandshouldaskrefereesnotonlytoreferee,butalsotoactasmentors.
Secondly,youhavetobuildupabodyofacademicswhoarewillingtobethosementors.
Andthird,youneedfundstoenableauthorstospendtimewithoneoftheirmentorssoas
tobeabletocompletetheirpaperforpublication.
That’showit’sbeenworkingattheinterfaceofthejournalEnvironmentandDevelopment
EconomicsandtheSouthAsianNetworkforDevelopmentandEnvironmentalEconomics
(SANDEE).SANDEEhasinitsrostersuchoutstandingeconomistsasEnamulHaque,
SubhrenduPattanayak,PriyaShyamsundar,E.S.Somanathan,andJeffVincent.Theygivea
lotoftheirtimetoteachingandtrainingyoungscholarsfromBangladesh,India,Pakistan,
Nepal,andSriLanka.Karl‐GoranMalerandIhavealsobeenengagedinthatwork,aswe
26
hadbeeninvolvedinobtainingthefundsforstartingSANDEE.Collectively,wehavebeen
hugelysuccessful.Journalarticles(inEnvironmentandDevelopmentEconomics;eventhe
ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences)andcollectionsofarticlesonselected
themeshavebeenpublishedbyscholarswhoenteredtheinternationalacademic
communityfirstbyattendingSANDEEteachingandtrainingworkshops.It’sthemost
excitingventureIhaveeverbeeninvolvedin.
Butbuildingcapacityinpoorregionstakespatience,time,andagreatdealofgoodwill.
Anditrequiresacollegiateatmosphere.SANDEE’sdirector,PriyaShyamsundar,isan
outstandingenvironmentaleconomistinherownright,butisalsosimplyoutoftheworld
asaleader,mentor,andadministrator.MalerandIareinaweofher.Wedowhatevershe
asksustodo,whenever.
Perhapsthemoststrikingexampleofsuccessisthecaseofawomaneconomist,Saudamini
Das,whocamefromanout‐of‐the‐wayplaceintheintellectuallyunpromisingstateof
Orissa.Shehadabitofeconomicstraining,hadraisedafamily,andthensoughtto
understandtheroleofmangroves,whichareanimportantformofnaturalcapitalin
hurricaneriddenOrissa.SheattendedaSANDEEteachingandresearchworkshop,was
successfulinobtainingagrantfromSANDEE(wearetalkingofatmost$12,000,sothisis
researchonthecheap)andeventuallyproducedajointpaperwithhermentoratSANDEE,
JeffVincent,whoisoneofthebestmindsinenvironmentalandresourceeconomics.The
paperwaspublishedlastyearintheProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofScience.Thisis
researchthatcamefromtheheart,toputitoneway.Dasknewthatmangrovesprotect
coastalvillagers.EveryNGOorinternationalorganizationIknowwillagreethat
mangrovesareanimportantformofnaturalcapital.Buthowimportantarethey?Dowe
haveanyquantitativefeelforhowmuchofabufferingcapacityitofferstoshorelines?Das
andVincentuseddataontheeffectoftheIndonesianTsunamioncoastalvillagestoshow
ushowtoestimatethesocialworthofmangroves.Theirsisaveryimportantpaper.
27
BOOKWRITING
Youhavewrittennumerousbooks.Doyouenjoytheprocess?
Yes,Ienjoytheartofwriting,andbooksenablemetounderstandthesubjectonwhichI
hadbeenworking.AsItoldyouearlier,allofmyunderstandingisincremental;I’venever
hadaeurekamoment.Articlesareofnecessitynarrowinfocus.Ifyouwanttounderstand
acomplexphenomenon,youwanttobreakitupintosmallbitsandpublisharticleson
thosesmallbits.Puttingthemtogetherintheformofabookenablesyoutoputsthosebits
together,explorethewaytheyfeedoneother.WhenI’vefinishedwritingabook,Iknowa
lotmoreaboutthesubject.WritingsbookshasbeenawayIhavetriedtoeducatemyself.
Economistsarewritingmorebooksnowthantheydid40yearsago.That’sgoodnews.
TellmeaboutwritingAVeryShortIntroductiontoEconomics.
Thatwasacuriousexperience.Ittookmeeightyearstocompleteit,butnotforreasons
youmightthink.IsignedthecontractwithOxfordUniversityPressin1998or’99,butI
didn’tknowhowtowriteit.Iaskedseveralpeopleforadviceonhowtosqueeze
economicsinto160smallpages,buttheadviceIreceiveddidn’tmatchmytemperament.
SoIsatonthebookforseveralyears.ThedelaywassogreatthatIgotintotroublewith
thedepartmentatOxfordUniversityPressresponsiblefortheVSIseries.Theyhadhuge
expectationsfortheseries,ithadbecomeverysuccessful;theywereaimingformorethan
200titles,butsevenyearshadgonebyandtheywerestillmissingtheeconomicstitle.
Meanwhile,asIdidn’tknowhowIwasgoingtoframeeconomicsforthebook,Ididwhat
comesnaturallytome:gointodenialandcontinueworkingonotherthings.
28
Thenoutoftheblue,sometimein2005,TimGowers,adistinguishedmathematicianat
Cambridge(heisaFieldsMedalist),askedmetowriteachapteronMathematicsand
EconomicReasoningforthePrincetonCompaniontoMathematicshewasediting.
Naturally,Iwasflattered;Ididn’tevendreamofsaying“no”.However,Iwasrequiredto
packmychapterinto15printedpagesofadmittedlyalargesizebook.Thatconcentrated
mymind.Ithought,“HowdoIgivetheflavortoamathematicianofwhatoursubjectin
aboutin15pages?”OnceIcrackedthatproblem,IknewitwouldbethemodelI’dusefor
Economics:VSI.Ifyoureadit,youwillseethatitreflectsalltheprejudicesandconvictions
Ihavelaidbarebeforeyouthelasttwohours.
REFEREEINGANDEDITING
Whatwouldyousayarethebenefitstorefereeing?
Youlearnsomethingnew,butI’vebeenabadrefereeallmylife.Ithinkit’sbecauseofmy
lackoftrainingineconomics.I’vebeenlearning‘onthehoof’,soIdon’thavethatmuchofa
commandovertheliteratureatanymomenttobeabletobeagoodreferee.Iamlikelyto
say,“Thisisnotaveryinterestingpaperbecauseit’sratherobvious.”Somebodyelsemight
say,“Butit’snotpublishedanywhereintheliterature.”AndI’mthenlikelytosay,“Well,
maybeit’sjustaswellit’snotinthepublishedliteraturebecauseit’ssoobvious.”Ifeel
nervousrefereeing.
29
Youhaveneverbeenaneditorofajournal.Isthatforthesamereason?
IthinkmycolleaguesrealizedthatIwasn’taveryreliablerefereeaswell.I’mnot
disciplinedenoughtosayonMondaysandTuesdays,Iwillworkonthejournal,andon
Wednesdays,Iwillgetbacktoresearch.Myresearchlifecontaminateseverythingelse,
evenwhenIwaschairmanofmydepartmentatCambridge.IwasadiligentchairmanandI
hadavery,veryclearvisionofwhereIwantedtoseemyDepartmentgo.Iwasraisedinan
academichousehold,soIwasfullypreparedtobeChairinmydepartmentatCambridge.
ThatmeantIdidn’tagonizeoverdecisions.ConsequentlyIcontinuedtopublishduringmy
tenure.Iseetheworldthroughaparticularlens,andthat’sabadthingforaneditor;an
editorissupposedtoanOlympian(laughs).
TIMEMANAGEMENT
Howdoyoudivideupyourworkingdaybothintermsofquantityandtimingofdifferentkinds
ofwork?Andhowdoyoubalanceyourpersonallifeandprofessionallife?
Ihadsomevery,veryluckybreaksintermsofmygenes;Icanconcentratenomatterhow
noisyistheenvironment.AndIdon’tneedtobecomfortablewhenatwork.Forexample,
I’veneverhadastudyathome.I’veveryoftenworkedonaproblemordraftedapaper,
sittingatthediningtablewithsmallchildrenrunninground,evenoneofthemsittingon
mylap.Ifmywifewerehere,shewouldtellyouthere’sneverbeenatimeathomewhen
ourchildrenweretoldtobequietbecause“fatherisworking.”Theywerealwaysrunning
aroundorsittingonmylapwhenIwasworking.Myfamilylifeneverinterferedwithmy
researchandmyresearchcertainlyneverinterferedwithmyfamilylife.Eventoday,when
I’mwashingup,Imightbethinkingaboutaproblemwhilemywifeandourfamilyfriends
aresittingatthediningtable,chatting.
30
Myofficedoorisalwaysopen,peoplearedriftinginandout,andIcanswitchonandoff.
I’mnotbraggingaboutit;it’safact.ButIamrathergratefulthatmygenesallowmetodo
that.We’reaveryclosefamily,andifanyofmychildrenwritetomeaboutanything,it’s
unthinkablethatIwouldnotrespondimmediately;itdoesn’tmatterwhatI’mdoing.My
wifeoftenasks,“Whatdoyoudoattheoffice?Doyoueverwork?”Sheasksbecauseshe
can’timaginehowIcouldbeatacademicworkandwouldneverthelessbeabletoset
everythingasidethemomentane‐mailarrivesfromoneofourchildren.Thatdoesn’t
meanIamefficientwithothermatters;I’mnot.Ifit’saninvitationtoaconference,thatwill
gointheholdbin,becausethee‐mailisimpersonal.
Doyoualsofinditeasytobalancemultipleresearchpapers?
Yes,becauseI’vegotthiswide‐ranging,interconnectedbodyofresearch.Everythingistied
upwitheverythingelse,orsoitseemstometobesointhesocialworld.
Doyouhaveasenseoftheoptimalnumberofpapersthatyoucouldbeworkingonatanyone
time?
No.I’veneverbeenabletoplanmyresearchanddon’tsupposeitwouldhavebeenagood
thingifIhad.Inthefirst20yearsofmyacademiclife,mypublicationsappearedin
bunches.Intheearly‐‘80s,Ipublishedquiteanumberofpapers,butthentherewasa
fallowperiod.OntheworkontechnologicalcompetitionthatIdidwithJoe(Stiglitz),we
produced7‐8papersoutofonemassivemanuscriptwehadcreatedforourselves.Butthat
manuscripttookacoupleofyears.Wethenproducedastringofpapersoutofthat.Iam
fromafortunategenerationintheUK.Igottenureprettyquicklyandeasily.Itdidn’t
bothermewhenIwaspublishingnothing,evenbeforereceivingtenure.
31
REFLECTIONSANDTHEFUTUREOFECONOMICS
Whathavebeenthemostimportantfindingsandcontributionsinyourresearchfieldsduring
thecourseofyourcareer?
Theeconomicsofasymmetricinformationisonebigone.Therearetwostrandstothat
literature:mechanismdesignwhentheagentsareasymmetricallyinformed,andanalysis
ofmarkets.underasymmetricinformation.Butusuallywheneconomistsareaskedto
explainasymmetricinformation,theytakeexamplesfromthelatter.I’lldothesamehere.
It’snotthatpeopledidn’tknowthatinformationwasasymmetricallydistributed–of
course,theydid–butastherewasnocanonicalformulation,theprofessionwaswaitingfor
therightlanguageinwhichtotalk“information”.Justtogiveyouanideaofhowdifficult
thematterwas,inthe1960sanumberofveryfineeconomiststhoughtthewayintothe
economicsofinformationwouldrequirefirstofallameasureofinformation(e.g.the
Shannonmeasure).Butthatdidn’tseemtoleadanywhere:thesocialworldrequiresa
differenttreatmentfromtheworldofcommunication.KennethArrowwasthefirstto
realize,atleastinapublishedform,thatweshouldbypassthatobsessionandmodelan
economyinwhichdifferentpeopleknewdifferentthings.Tomymindhis1963onhealth
economicsandthemedicalprofessionistherealoriginoftheeconomicsofasymmetric
information.Ifyoureadityouwillfindithadeverything,butforalgebra,thatwasin
Akerlof’sfamous‘lemons’paper(inArrowread“quacks”forAkerlof’s“lemons”).Butit
wentbeyondthelemonsexamplebyofferinganexplanationforwhythemarketfor
medicalpractitionersnevercollapsed.Arrowsuggestedthatmedicalassociationsmonitor
qualityandthatyouneedinstitutionstocontrolquality.Atatimewhenmosteconomists
viewedsuchassociationsascreatingcartels,Arrow’sanalysismusthavebeenarevelation.
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Thepersonwhocarriedoutthebulkofthenextstageofworkonasymmetricinformation
inmarketsisJoeStiglitz.Stiglitzrelentlesslypursuedtheproblem,basicallybyre‐
constructingpricetheory.It’sinterestingthatnosinglepaperofhisonthesubjectnailed
thingsdown,it’sonlywhenyouputthemtogether(studyingmarketsforcredit,insurance,
labour,capital),thatyoubegintomakeconnectiontoanenormousnumberoffeaturesof
theworldwhichwerebeyondthereachofeconomicanalysisuntilthen.Ofcourse,Stiglitz
wasessentiallystudyingthesamemodel,butafterhavinggivenadifferentnametothe
marketbeingmodeled.ItwasveryStiglitzian(laughs).Butitwasnecessaryhediditthat
way.Hewastryingtoproduceacanonicalmodel;andhesucceeded.
Whatarethebiggestchallengesfacingyourresearchfields?
It’sbesttorespondbynotingit’snotjustmyresearchfield,butthebiggestchallengein
economics.
BringingNatureintoeconomicswillprovetobethebiggestchallenge,largelybecause
wheneverNatureismentioned,thehardboiledeconomistsays“externalities”and
suppressesayawn.Economicshasestablishedbadculturalpractices.Theprofession
doesn’trewardsomeonewhomaybedoingvitalworkestimatingthoseyawn‐generating
externalitiesin,say,asituationwhereforestsintheuplandsofawatershedarebeingcut
downanddamagingfarmersdownstream.Theprofessionrewardsempiricalworkin
sociallyacceptablefields,suchaseducation,health,labour,insurance,andvarious
industriesproducingprivategoods.Butwhenitcomestonaturalcapital,theygiveita
33
thumbs‐down.It’sveryhardforempiricalenvironmentalandresourceeconomiststoget
jobsinleadingeconomicsdepartment.Thenaturalsciencesarefarmoresophisticatedin
theirappreciationofgoodappliedwork.Inthecaseofupstreamdeforestation,the
economisthastoobtaindatafromscratchbecausethegovernmentdoesn’tpublishdataon
thesubject;heorshehastocollaboratewithhydrologists,soilscientists,andagronomists
iftheyaretoestimatethe“externalities”.Iftherehasbeenarecurrentthemeinmyown
work,it’sbeentheattempttointroduceNature(naturalcapital)intoeconomicsina
seamlessway;inmanywaystore‐constructeconomics.Sustainabledevelopmentisabuzz
worldamongintellectuals.Butthatdoesn’tmakeitabogusword.Untileconomiststake
Natureseriously,wewillnotknowhowcurrentpolicywillaffectfuturepeople.Wehaveto
understandhumanity’srelationshipwithNatureatdifferentlevelsofeconomic
development.Inordertodothat,weneedtomakecontactwithneighboringdisciplines.
Theprofessionisn’tpreparedtodothatasyet.
Ifwewanttounderstand,say,povertyintheThirdWorld,weneedtoengagewith
anthropologistsandecologists,becausetheyhavegainedinsightsfromyearsofexperience.
Ihavefoundengagingwiththemvery,veryfruitful.Ifwewanttounderstandrurallife,we
needtoengagewithgeographerstoo,becausetheyhavedevelopedtoolsaboutthe
landscape.It’stakenmeyearstoappreciatehowdeeplyinterconnectedoursocialsystems
arewiththenaturalsystem,andhowwehavealsoisolatedourselvesfromNatureviathe
market.Weneedtobeconstantlyawareoftheunintendedconsequencesofthatisolation.
We’vegottoreallyengagewithawholegroupofdifferent,butrelateddisciplines.We’re
notdoingenoughofthatatthemoment,andwedon’thavethewillingness;ourentire
trainingprocessandsubsequentcareergoagainstit.Ican’thelpthinkingthatwe
economistsaremissingthemostsignificantproblemsofourtime,orforthatmatterof
anybody’stime,byavoidingthem.
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Howdidyoufeelaboutbeingawardedaknighthoodfor“servicestoeconomics”?Whatwould
yousayhasbeenyourbiggestcontributiontoeconomics?
IwastotallysurprisedonreceivingtheletterfromthePrimeMinister’sOffice,inMay2002.
IwassurprisedbecauseIhadneverconsultedforgovernments,infactIdidn’tknowany
governmentofficials.TherecommendationmusthavecomefromtheUK’sEconomicand
SocialResearchCouncil.WhenIshowedhertheletter,mywifetooksometimetodigest
thequestionIwasasked,namelywhetherIwouldacceptaknighthood.Thequestion
didn’tarise.Iwasverypleasedwiththatrecognition,itseemedtometobeanaffirmation
ofmyresearch,butithashadnoeffectonmylife.
AnInquiryintoWell‐beingandDestitution(1993)isunquestionablytheworkwithwhichI
ammostsatisfied.WorkingtowarditmademeunderstandthesocialworldinawayI
couldn’thavebyreadinganythingelse.Iwroteitovera4yearperiod,starttofinish,andit
knockedmeout.UnconsciouslyIwantedtochangethewayeconomicsisunderstood,but
ofcourseIwasn’tabouttowriteamethodologicalwork,Ifocusedonwell‐beingand
destitutionasmyobjectofstudywithwhichtore‐writeeconomics.Iwaswritingthebook
asaletter(averylongletter!)tomyfather,whoIknewwasgoingtodiesoon.Thebook
wasn’tfinishedwhenhedied,soIwroteamemoirforhimasanintroductiontothebook.
Economics:AVeryShortIntroduction(2007)resemblesthatearlierwork,butit’sawhole
lotbriefer.
Doyouhaveanyprofessionalregrets?
Idon’tthinkso,largelybecauseI’venevertakenmyprofessionallifethatseriously,qua
professionallife.Thatexplainsagooddealofmyanswerstoyourpreviousquestions.
Researchformehasneverreallybeenresearch;it’sbeenanengagementwithlife.Andmy
35
workhasneverbeencompartmentalizedfromtherestofmylife.Ofcourse,ifyouaskmy
wife,shewillsay,“Therewereperiodswhenhewasimpossibletolivewith;whenIwould
talktohiminthosemoments,itwasclearhewasn’tlistening.”Butthat’sinevitable;any
personwho’sengagedinresearch,nomatterhowcompartmentalizedheorsheis,will
havemomentswhenthey’reslightlydisconnected.
I’veneverhadabigagendaandI’veneverwantedtochangetheworld.It’sbeenself‐
indulgencealltheway;I’vewantedtounderstandthesocialworld,andthewayeconomists
handleditwasn’tgoodenoughforme,whichiswhyIwasledtogeographers,
anthropologists,nutritionists,ecologists,anddevelopmentbiologists.AndI’vehad
enormoushelpfromsomeofthegreatestmindsinthosedisciplines,scientistslikePaul
Ehrlich,JackGoody,andJohnWaterlow.WheneverIhavewritten,seekingguidance,
sometimestoscholarswhomIhadnevermet,theyhaverespondedhandsomely.Andof
course,Ihavehadenormoushelpfrommyprofessionalcolleagues.Myco‐authorsin
particularhavetaughtmeagreatdeal.
Ialsodon’tthinkI’vemadeawrongmoveintermsofemployment.In1977,whenIwasat
theLSE,IturneddownaveryfineofferfromPrinceton,mainlybecauseIwashopingto
becomeaProfessorattheLSE,wheremyfatherhaddonehisPh.Dandmyfather‐in‐law
hadbeenaProfessor.Ishouldsayitwasn’tcompetitionwithmyelders,itwasamatterof
seeingthroughanintergenerationalagreement,ifyouseewhatImean;carryingthe
proverbialtorch.ForacoupleofyearsIregrettednotmovingtoPrinceton.Ialsowanted
toliveinacampusenvironment,andLondondoesn’tprovidethat.Ontheotherhand,
Londonwasexciting,andmywifeandIenjoyedanactivesociallife.But,whenin1984
Cambridgeapproachedmewiththeofferofachair,bothmywifeandIknewwewere
goingtoacceptit.ShehadgrownupinCambridgeandIhadbeenastudent.Thatwasan
easydecision.
36
Doyouhaveanyprofessionalambitions?
No.ItgoeswithoutsayingIdidwanttobecomeaprofessor.OnceIbecameone,attheLSE
in1978,thatambitionwasfulfilled.Fromthenon,whatwasimportantforme,
professionallythatis,isthatIcontinuetoexplorethesocialworld.
OUPispublishingmycollectedpapersintheautumn.Abouttenyearsago,Iturneddown
theoffer,sayingIdidn’tseethepurpose.Ithoughtthatthosewhodiditdiditeitherasa
vanityprojectorbecausetheyfeltthattheircreativeperiodhadcometoanend.(Iwas
deadwrong,ofcourse.)Butthentwoyearsago,Ihadtoundergomajorsurgeryforcancer.
Iwasgiventwoweeks’noticeandwastoldtherewasabouta4percentriskoffatalityat
theoperatingtable,nottomentionthattherecouldbefurtherproblems.WhenIlearned
that,Ithought,“Well,ifI’mdead,thenit’sdead(thevolume).”Butanother(worseforme,
personally)possibilitywasthatIwouldsurvivebuttheexperiencewoulddampenmy
curiosityaboutlifeandthesocialworldroundme.Ifthatweretohappen,Ithoughtediting
mycollectedpaperswouldbenobadthing.SoIinformedOUPthatIwaswilling.They
sentmeacontractimmediately.However,withintwoweeksoftheoperation,eventhough
Icouldhardlydoanythingphysical,IfoundmyselfreadingatextbookonEarthScience.
Whilelyinginthehospital,adayfollowingmyoperation,IhadrealizedIknewlittleformal
aboutthemathematicsunderlyingplatetectonics.RecognitionthatIhadrevertedtobeing
astudentcheeredmeupnoend.However,IbegantoregretthatIsignedthatcontract!
Butadealisadeal,andIhavedonepartofmyjobproducingthetwovolumes.AsIsaid,I
wasquitewrongearlier.IenjoyedcollectingthearticlesandwritingtheIntroductions.
Howwouldyoudescribethestateofeconomicstoday?Areyouoptimisticaboutitsfuture?
37
Atoneleveleconomicsisinaverygoodstatetoday.Thelast30‐40yearshasseen
extremelyfruitfulprogressinboththeoreticalandappliedwork.Beforethen,theapplied‐
theorydividewasenormous.Theoristsknewlittleaboutwhatappliedpeopledid,and
appliedeconomistscouldn’tunderstandthepointintheory.Today,mosttheoristsknow
somethingabouttheappliedworktowhichtheirtheoryrelates,andappliedeconomicshas
changedbeyondbeliefbecauseofthedevelopmentofadvancedeconometrictechniques.
Butthereisahugedownsidetothestateofaffairs.Goodpeopleusuallydogoodresearch,
buttheydon’tnecessarilyworkonthemostimportantproblems.Andeconomistscan
misreadthesocialandnaturalworldsobadlythatevengoodpeopleendupdoingflippant
research.Theprofessionevenrewardssuchwork.Ihavealreadyalludedtothefactthat
ourprofessionisdismissiveofreallyhard,empiricalworkonenvironmentalexternalities.
Letmeelaborateonit.Taketheenormousliteraturethathasbeenbuiltupoverthepast
twodecadesandmoreonendogenousgrowth.Ifindmostofitwhollyunreal.Hereisthe
presentworld,headingforapopulationofmorethan9billionbythemiddleofthecentury,
everyonewantingtoenjoythelifestyleof,ifnotDubai’sSheiks,butcertainlytheaverage
incomeofaresidentinahighmiddle‐incomecountry.Buttheenvironmental
requirementsofsuchastateofaffairswouldrequire3to4Earths.Weeconomistsdon’t
evenbegintoappreciatethatfact.Wesimplypostulatetechnologicalprogressandthink
thatNature’sconstraintscanalwaysbeovercomethrougheducationandresearch.How
havewecometosuchapass?Wehaveafterallonlyabout250yearsofexperienceofwhat
wenowcallthemodernworld,whichseemsamomentina11,000yearsofhuman
“history”.Economistsasaprofessiondon’twanttothinkaboutpopulationanditdoesn’t
wanttotakeNatureseriously.Icanonlyconcludethatwehavedetachedourselvesfrom
theworld.Noneofthatwouldmatterifweeconomistsweren’tenormouslyinfluential.
Butweare.Thelanguageweuseseepsintothejournalisticandpoliticalworld.Economic
growth,wealth,markets,andtechnologicalprogressareexpressionswehavefashioned.
Wehelpotherstogointodenialaboutpossibleadversefuturesofhumansocieties,because
38
wearesmartenoughandarticulateenoughtosayknowledgeandingenuitywillsolveall
problems.Periodicallywewritetosaythat“Malthuswasafalseprophet”(aquotefroma
recentissueoftheEconomist).Andit’stheeconomicsprofessionthatidentified
“externalities”.PutallthetermsIhavejustmentionedtogetherandyougetacontradiction
intheeconomist’sfavouredmodelofthelongrun.That’snotjustironic,it’stragic.