Part I A Handbook for · Part III, the final component of HANDS-ON PCIA, is the facilitator's...

HANDS-ON PCIA

Part I

A Handbook for Peace And Conflict Impact Assessment

(PCIA)

Kenneth Bush [email protected]

October 2003 [AUTHOR’S VERSION]

Under the Auspices of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities

And the Canada-Philippines Local Government Support Programme

mailto:[email protected]

HANDS-ON PCIA consists of three pConflict Impact Assessment and towhich may be used to apply the mholding a PCIA capacity building w

© Federa

"The main battlefield for gbut the

-- Y Acknowledgments While this project builds on work that began ionly began to take shape during the TrainingCanada Local Government Support Programthe same year, LGSP organized a second woLGSP colleagues, this handbook would have special thanks go to the organizers and resouGarcia, a peacebuilder par excellence (andSef Carandang, Ria M. Adapon, Robert RagPart III), and Toh Swee-Hin. I was quite overwResource Partners who ensured the success oand co-facilitators from the workshops: MadeTess Tajanlangi. Above all, I thank the particitaught me more than I could ever have taugfinalize this document in its current form. At thacknowledge the initial support by Don Browmanagement level of Agriteam Canada, I ac

HANDS-ON PCIA Kenneth Bush, October 2003

HANDS-ON PCIA

arts: Part I, an introduction to the idea of Peace and ols for conducting one; Part II, a capacity-building exercise aterial in Part I; and Part III, a facilitator's manual for orkshop.

© Kenneth David Bush &

tion of Canadian Municipalities

ood is not the open ground of the public area, small clearing in each heart."

ann Martel, The Life of Pi

n 1996, the scattered thinking that is consolidated in this handbook Conference for Local Resource Partners of the Philippines-me (LGSP) in Davao City (Philippines) in January 2003. In June of

rkshop in Mindanao to further field test this handbook. Without my been much less “hands-on,” and much less user-friendly. Very rce persons of the conference and workshop, especially Myn tireless editor and facilitator) , and the LGSP team of Jing Lopez, uro, Starj Villanueva (especially for her conference reports used in helmed by the intensity and boundless capacities of the Local f these meetings – in particular the new network of PCIA experts tt Gardiola, Cesar H. Villanueva, Norania (Nanie) M. Acmad, and

pants of the workshops whose integrity and fearless peacebuilding ht them. It is to them that I am most indebted for the push to e Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM), I would like to

nell, Sebastian Hamel, and Renee Giroux. And, at the knowledge the support of Marion Villanueva and Alix Yule.

1

table of contents

I. INTRODUCTION How is this hand-book organized? How to use this Handbook Feedback Mechanism

II. THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE YOU START

A Word about words Where should you "do" PCIA When should you "do" PCIA? The different uses of PCIA at different phases of a project or initiative Guiding Principles Questions to ask about PCIA

III. PICA IN PRACTICE

Step 1: How to tell you are in a conflict-prone setting -- before it is too late Step 2: Risk and Opportunity Assessment (Worksheet 1) Step 3: Pre-project PCIA (Worksheet 2) Step 4: In-project PCIA (Worksheet 2) Step 5: Post-project PCIA (Worksheet 2)

Where to look for potential peace or conflict impact (Issue areas; explanation; peace impacts; conflict impacts; sample indicators)

IV. APPENDIX

Glossary Referents in the Evolution of the Idea of PCIA References


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I. INTRODUCTION

There are many tools to monitor and evaluate the developmental impacts of development projects, such as an irrigation project in eastern Sri Lanka, a health clinic in Bosnia or a education project in Gaza. We use indicators such as increased water access, agricultural production, public health, literacy, and so on. Yet, when a project is situated in a conflict-prone region, there are more than just developmental impacts to consider. Projects such as these affect, and are affected by, the dynamics of peace and conflict within such regions. At the moment, we can evaluate the developmental impact of a project, but we do not have the means of understanding or measuring peace and conflict impacts in a comprehensive or systematic way. Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment (PCIA) is a response to this problem. PCIA is a means of anticipating, monitoring, and evaluating the ways in which an intervention may affect or has affected the dynamics of peace or conflict in a conflict-prone region.

Real Life Experiences-- a cautionary tale – One day, a development agency from a rich developed country decidedthat it would like to help rebuild water tanks in a war-affected country. The water reservoirs broke down long ago, but had never been repaired because of 20 years of war. However, peace talks had created an opportunity to do some much needed development work in areas that it had not been able to reach during the war. So, following its usual rules, the development agency did what it always does: it asked interested companies to send in proposals to rebuild a particular tank in a rebel-controlled area. After reviewing all of the proposals, the agency chose the lowest bid – which was half the price of any other bid. Eight months later, the agency received an report to let them know that the project had been completed according to the original proposal. The company was paid in full, and the agency was happy in the belief that it had completed a cost-effective water project that would benefit the local community. However, when rainy season arrived the "rebuilt" tank completely fell apart! What happened?

aply

the

n

the rebels simply found another engineer who as more "agreeable."

ent

rol

, the project had negative evelopmental and peacebuilding impacts.

ace? Yes, it did. Maybe a pre-project PCIA might have helped?

The company which won the bid was controlled by the main rebel group. One of the reasons that it was able to "do" the work so chewas because the project used "volunteer" labour -- farmers who owned tractors were forced to donate their time and equipment, and villagers were forced to work for free. None of the labour costs in project budget went to the labourers. (Hmm, I wonder where this money went?) Furthermore, the tank did not follow the technical plan ithe proposal. It did not include the water-proof skirt needed to make sure the tank held water! When the first engineer refused to give the project a passing grade,w In the end, contrary to the positive assessment of the developmagency, the result of the project was: (1) a significant financial contribution to the rebels; (2) strengthening of the authoritarian contof rebels over civilians; (3) the abuse of the rights of labourers and children who were forced to work on the project; (4) no positive or sustainable developmental impact. In shortd Did this project really take pl

PCIA is a process, similar to Gender Analysis and Environmental Impact Assessment, which helps identify and understand the impact of an initiative on peace or conflict. PCIA can be used in a broad range of conflict-prone settings, i.e. places where there is a risk that non-violent conflict may turn, or return, to violence. PCIA must be integrated into every stage of the project cycle - design, implementation and evaluation - if it is to help us in our work. PCIA is an extremely important and useful process that will help you ensure that the initiatives you are working on do not aggravate violent conflict and, as far as possible, contribute to building peace within and between communities.

How is this hand-book organized? This handbook is a "hands-on," working, document which seeks to be practical and applicable. As a perpetual "work in progress", It is also a "working document" to be used and modified by users' to suit the particular needs -- as long as changes are true to the guiding principles outlined in the text, and are shared using the feedback mechanism noted below. In an effort be reader-friendly, the handbook follows a "PCIA for Dummies" format, using quick checklists, question-answer sections, and illustrative tables, diagrammes, and so on. In an effort to be user-friendly, the handbook includes "Worksheets" that may be used (1) in the Capacity Building Exercise (the Tugal Case Study) prepared to complement the current document, and (2) in other cases of the user's choice.

How to use this Handbook This Handbook is organized into three parts sections: Part I consists of a handbook which introduces the idea of PCIA and tools for conducting one. Part II contains a capacity-building exercise which may be used to apply the material in Part I.


3

Part III, the final component of HANDS-ON PCIA, is the facilitator's manual for holding a capacity building workshop.

This Handbook is written for all individuals and organizations that are working, or are planning to work, in countries, regions, or communities that may be affected by violent conflict. It has been designed to increase your capacity to undertake an assessment that: (i) identifies and assesses the ways in which the peace and conflict environment may affect an initiative or project; and (ii) identifies and assesses the ways in which an initiative or project may affect the peace and conflict environment. I

II

Risk and Opportunity Assessment

Peace & Conflict Impact Assessment

Impact on Peace & Conflict Environment Initiative/ Initiative/

Project Project

Impact on Peace and Conflict Environment We hope you find this Handbook and the process of using PCIA useful, and that it makes a positive contribution to the ways you understand and undertake your work. Feedback mechanism The version of Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment contained in this handbook is the product of many on-going conversations. It is neither the first, nor the last, version of PCIA. It's worth can be measured only according to its utility. To be useful, it needs to be adjustable to suit different needs, in different environments. Since the introduction of the term "PCIA" (Bush 1996, 1998), there have been a number of attempts to further develop and operationalize the concept. Unfortunately, these have tended to be compartmentalized efforts -- where the work and lessons of one group may, or may not, be shared with others struggling with similar challenges. There is a pressing need to pull together all of these various efforts into a more participatory learning process. We would very much like to learn from your efforts to use and adapt this Handbook so that we can continue to: build a network of like-minded people and organizations; learn from relevant experiences; and prepare and share useful PCIA material. We welcome your comments and suggestions. Please send them to: Kenneth Bush ( [email protected] or [email protected] ) or Myn Garcia ( [email protected] )

II. THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE YOU START A Word about words peace and conflict impact assessment ("PCIA") is a means of assessing the ways in which an intervention may affect, or has affected, the dynamics of peace or conflict in a conflict-prone region. PCIA focuses on: 1) Peacebuilding Impact -- those factors that strengthen the chances for peace and decrease the chances that violent conflict will breakout, continue, or start again, and; 2) Conflict-Creating Impact -- those factors that increase the chances that conflict will be dealt with through the use of violence. (Bush 1998). PCIA is a process, not an add-on or a single-use "tool".

peacebuilding consists of two inseparable parts: (1) the construction of the structures of peace, and (2) the de-construction of the structures of violence. It is not about the imposition of solutions, but the creation of space within which indigenous actors can identify problems and formulate their own solutions. impact refers to the actual effects of an intervention – both intended and unintended – on the lives of its "beneficiaries" and others beyond the immediate project outputs (e.g., # of wells dug, # of people trained, people serviced, and so on). In popular usage, "effect" and "result" is sometimes used in stead of impact.

conflict is not necessarily negative or destructive. Problems arise when non-violent conflict(s) violent turn (or re-turn) violent. The "surprise" about the violent conflict is not that it occurs, but that we watch it develop for so long, and do nothing about it -- e.g., the disintegration of governments and the rule of law, increasing abuses of human rights, the imposition of conflict-creating terms of trade or economic conditionalities, the acceptance of (or participation in) corrupt business practices, the selling of weapons to illegitimate and violent regimes, etc.. development is inevitably conflictual, destabilizing and subversive because it challenges existing political, economic, and social power structures that stop individuals and groups from attaining their full potential.


4




NB: Words in this handbook that are highlighted in blue are explained in the glossary found in the Handbook

Appendix. Words that can – and should --be applied to

peace and conflict impact assessment

• Flexible • Interpretive • Consistent • Long-term timeframe • Appropriate • Participatory • Liberating • Coherent • Timely • Independent • Connected • Accountable • Balanced (external &

internal resources) • Trust-building • Shared • Commitment • Learning Tool • Action Oriented/

Change-inducing • Multi-Layered Realities • Empowering

Words that should not apply to peace and conflict impact

assessment

• IN-Flexible • Descriptive/ shallow • Ad hoc/ One-time-only • Short-term • Irrelevant (to local needs) • NON-Participatory • Imprisoning • IN-Coherent • After-thought • Biased • DIS-Connected • UN-Accountable • IM-Balanced (external &

internal resources) • Trust-DESTROYING/

suspicion-creating • Secretive • Flavor-of-the-month • Check list • Bureaucratic requirement • Externally-Imposed

"Realities" • DIS-empowering

Where should you "do" PCIA? PCIA should certainly be embedded in projects located in "hot" war zones. However, they should also apply to initiatives in a far wider range of conflict-prone settings – that is, places where there is a risk that non-violent conflict may turn (or return) to violence. This includes areas:

where the control over, or use of, territory or resources is disputed;

where the socio-economic gap between groups is increasing; or

where unemployment is rising while living standards and human security are declining.

In each of these examples, violence and bloodshed may not have occurred. However, the likelihood that violence may occur is significant – especially if the tools for resolving conflict non-violently are weak or absent (e.g., where the political and legal systems have collapsed or become corrupt). In these settings, PCIA is essential. When should you "do" PCIA? Ideally, PCIA should be undertaken at all stages of a project, programme or initiative. However, as the table below illustrates, it may be used for different purposes at different stages.

The different uses of PCIA at different phases of a project or initiative

PHASE OF INITIATIVE

OR PROJECT

How is PCIA

used?

Objective

Tasks

PRE-PROJECT

Planning Tool for Project Design, and Formulation

Anticipating/

"guesstimating" future impacts;

"Building in" conflict prevention/ peacebuilding

mechanisms

Risk and Opportunity Assessment (Worksheet I)

Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment

(Worksheet II)

IN-PROJECT

Performance Monitoring and Management tool

Monitoring

Immediate Impacts


(Worksheet II)

On-Going Risk and Opportunity

Assessment (Worksheet I)

POST-PROJECT

Strategic Planning for

future phases

Evaluation, Institutional

Learning


(Worksheet II)


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Guiding Principles

PCIA is a process -- not a tool. While some people would like a "PCIA Tool Kit" that can be applied everywhere to fix everything, PCIA will not make a difference unless it challenges and changes the way we do our work in conflict zones. We may not have to do different work, but will have to do our work differently. PCIA challenges us all to fundamentally rethink all of our work in areas prone to militarized violence

PCIA helps us to understand the specific rather than the general. "We know a lot of things to be true about social violence, we just don't know when they will be true." (James Rule) PCIA help us to see, and to understand, when, why, and how a particular factor, in a particular situation, is likely to contribute to peace, or violent conflict. For example, many believe that poverty leads to violent conflict. However, when we look closely at different cases, we see that sometimes it appears related, and sometimes it does not. Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment helps to identify and understand when, why, and how poverty may contribute to violent conflict, for example, when a collective sense of injustice, indignity, and hopelessness is added to conditions of impoverishment. As importantly, PCIA helps us to make the changes to our initiatives to improve the likelihood that they achieve both their developmental impacts and peacebuilding impacts.

PCIA is not static. PCIA is an on-going and dynamic approach taken before, during, and after a particular intervention in a conflict-prone region.


6

PCIA Needs to be transparent, shared, and People-Centred. The real experts of PCIA are those women, men, girls and boys living in conflict zones. If they are not centrally involved in peace and conflict analysis and interpretation, then the exercise will fail, or worse, will disempower communities – that is, it will remove them from decisions that fundamentally affect their lives. If a community does not believe a PCIA is genuine or legitimate; if they believe that it is not in their interests; if they believe that it will be used for force unwanted projects or decisions on them; then they are completely justified in rejecting the process and its outcomes. PCIA is too important to leave in the hands of so-called "experts." As a colleague in Mindanao put it, "don't rely on documents, live in the community."

Real Life Experiences — peacebuilding from one hand, guns and bombs from the other --- A classic example of what not to do, is offered by a European development agency which decided that it wanted to "mainstream" PCIA into its work in Nepal in early 20Unfortunately, at the same time, the Prime Minister of that same European country announced that the Maoist insurgency could be defeated militarily. Accordingly, it increased its military assistance ten-fold. (the United States also increased its military assistance programme by the same proportion.)

02.

The Lesson: The most conflict-sensitive, peacebuilding-focused, development programming in the world is not going to magically erase the destructive impact of the further militarization of the conflict – although some people argue that military assistance is a form of peacebuilding. Indeed, in the example here, the Ministry of Defense had attempted to increase its militaryassistance to Nepal by drawing on a newly created Conflict Prevention Fund!

Building peace includes "un-building" the structures of violence. Just as the removal of the structures of violence does not automatically bring peace, neither does the simple adding (or strengthening) of peace capacities automatically stop violence. For this reason, peacebuilders must strategically consider how to unbuild the structures of violence as well as to build the capacities for peace – other wise they risk seeing their hard work washed away in the next flood of violence.

Neither Development nor peacebuilding on their own will magically create peace. Development and peacebuilding activities can make important positive contributions to peace and unity (or they can increase existing tensions). However, on their own they will not create peace. Full, genuine, and lasting peace requires substantive and on-going efforts by a wide range of actors (local, national, regional, international) in a broad range of activities (military, trade, development and humanitarian assistance, diplomatic, and so on)

Haste makes waste – PCIA takes time. Despite the time pressures that always affect the planning and implementation of a project or initiative, there needs to be time for genuine dialogue, learning and capacity-building. A rushed PCIA is a doubtful PCIA.

Questions to ask about PCIA If development equals peace" why does conflict sometimes increase

when a country or region "develops"?

If ‘development equals peace,’ then conflict should decrease as a country or region ‘develops.’ But this does not always happen. In fact, we often see that violence increases as the living conditions for some groups in a region improve. In many cases, development itself creates conflict. The critical issue is whether conflict created (or aggravated) by developmental interventions is dealt with violently or non-violently. It is more accurate to say that development initiatives sometimes contribute to peace and sometime contribute to conflict. PCIA can help make sure that a project or initiative does not create violent

seekwhecom

Wpea

thinkcomthe eco In oare just to creinf

"evaobje

HAKen

How Development can Create Conflict

By increasing socio-economic inequalities – or fueling the belief that such inequalitiesare increasing

By benefiting certain groups more than others

By increasing competition for developmentresources & political control By introducing new structures &

institutions that challenge existing ones (social, political or economic)

conflict, and, as far as possible, makes a positive contribution to peace.

How Can a development project have a peacebuilding or conflict-creating impact?

Real Life ExperiencesWhen does a kidney transplant have a peacebuilding impact? Secret peace talks were being delayed by the poor health of the leading ideologue and negotiator for the main rebel group in Sri Lanka. He was unable to endure the long meetings required to work out the details of a possible peace process. The waiting list for a kidney transplant in the UK, where he was living, was very long. The Norwegian Government, who had been quietly supporting the peace process, stepped in and arranged for him to have the necessary surgery. As a result, the negotiator was able to fully participate in the secret peace process which subsequently became a public peace process.

Imagine a municipal water project that

s to improve access to clean water in an area re there have been tensions between munities.

e could say that this project has had a positive cebuilding impact if

it helped to bring members of the communities together because of their shared interest in clean water and the benefits this has for public health and general quality of life

it created the communication channels and opportunities for diverse members of different

communities to work together on issues beyond water management

it increased inclusion and participation of both women and men from violence-affected groups in decision making at the community level on issues they consider a priority

professional or personal or interpersonal relationships began to grow across community lines and perhaps encouraged communities to work together in other areas of activity

That same water project could have a conflict-creating impact if, for example, one community starts to that the other community is benefiting more than its own -- or worse, if it believes that the other munity will benefit by "stealing" its water. Or, conflict may be created (or worsened) if some members of

population are excluded from decision-making, participation, and so on (women, marginalized social, nomic, ethnic, linguistic, religious, cultural groups).

rder to identify and understand the peace or conflict impact of this example, we must ask questions that different from the ones that usually get asked about the impact of projects. We need to know more than the total number of "beneficiaries," or the increase in water access, or the decreased costs. PCIA helps us hange the ways we think about, carry out, and evaluate work in conflict-prone areas so that we can orce peacebuilding impacts and avoid the conflict-creating impacts.

How should we integrate peace and conflict issues into our work in conflict-prone areas?

Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment is different from the way planning, monitoring, and luation" is usually done, because it focuses on impacts far beyond the stated outputs, outcomes, goals and ctives of a project or programme. It looks for impacts on the peace and conflict environment – in areas

NDS-ON PCIA neth Bush, October 2003

7

that an initiative may not have been designed to affect. We need to "read between the lines" of what is happening or has happened. PCIA tries to learn from the successes and failures of efforts to "mainstream" gender and environment into our work. Until we developed the tools to see and to measure the impact of our development work on women, girls and the environment, all we had were short, disconnected, stories of how a particular intervention seemed to have an impact. We did not have the full story; we did not have a larger understanding that could help those of us working in the field. For example, someone might have a story of how a project increased household access to clean water, but removed the opportunity for women to socialize, mobilize, and organize around the community well. Someone else, might mention the story of how the introduction of a tractor into to a community increased production, but removed women from their traditional role as cultivators and reduced their economic independence.


Real Life Experiences HOW NOT TO DO PCIA – creating conflict in the name of peace In one war-affected country, so-called "PCIA workshops" were held both in rebel-controlled and Government-controlled areas. By most accounts, they were disorganized, confused and ill-prepared. They were led by foreigners who knew next to nothing about the conflict, very little about PCIA, and absolutely nothing about the intense sensitivities around "peace" at the time of the workshops -- which were held as very delicate peace talks were taking place inside and outside the country. The facilitators were unable to respond to questions about the specific relevance of PCIA to the going peace process (questions that should have expected, since PCIA had been a part of a three-year consultation between government, donors, and civil society). Aside from the confused content and process of the workshops, documents were written in academiEnglish and not translated into local languages. On-site interpretation was inadequate. All of these factors combined to ensure the frustration of participants and thefailure of the exercise. Ironically, the net impact of workshops may have been to decrease the opportunity to strengthen PCIA capacity. Despite this dismal impact, a second round of workshops will apparently be held.

on-been

c

PCIA also collects and learns lessons from the stories told by those working "on the ground" in conflict-prone areas. For example: the story about parents burning down a new village school because rebels were using it to forcibly recruit children; or the story of how the negotiations between rebels and government to hold vaccination campaigns eventually created the personal relationships and space to negotiate longer ceasefires and peace talks. By listening to these stories, and learning from them, it is possible to develop and apply the analytical and programming tools necessary to make sure our work in conflict-prone areas contributes to peace, not war. The inclusion of peace and conflict concerns into our development thinking requires tools that may be applied to all activities in conflict-prone areas, from service projects in education, agriculture, water, communications, and heamore openly political projects in peacebuilding, "good governance," and human

Don't we alreadname of "Risk As

The diagramme below s

“Risk Assessment” and Peace andRisk Assessment focuses on how aof a project or initiative – making be, or worse, a complete failure. looks for new opportunities in the environments that might help a pcentral point of reference in Risk Adevelopmental objectives of an ihealth in an area through deliverincreased mobility through the buagricultural production through trRisk Assessments basically ask thepossible within the current conflicthe risk of failure cased by that cohand, includes Risk Assessment, bobjectives of a project to ask: “Hocreate conflict or build peace -- dwhat changes might be made to impact and minimize negative im

… [there is] the story about the burning down of a new school by parents themselves because rebels were using it to forcibly recruit children [and] there is the story of how rebels and governments negotiate the holding the National Immunization Days

8

lth, to commercial activities, to rights.

y "do" PCIA under the sessment"?

hows the differences between Conflict Impact Assessment. conflict might get in the way it less effective than it could In some cases, Risk Assessment local and national roject meet its objectives, The ssessment is the stated

nitiative (such as the improved y of a health programme, ilding of a road, increased aining and technical inputs.) questions: “Is this initiative t, and what can I do to reduce nflict?” PCIA, on the other ut looks beyond the stated w might (or has) this initiative irectly and indirectly – and

ensure sustainable positive pact?”

COMPARISON OF RISK ASSESSMENT AND PEACE & CONFLICT IMPACT ASSESSMENT

PEACE AND CONFLICT ENVIRONMENT --Levels and dynamics of violence/ Capacities for peace--

PROJECT/ PROGRAMME/ INITIATIVE

Assessmaffect t

initiative; cof conflict o

of oppocreated

increased

Central Point of Reference:

Un-stated impacts of initiative

PCIA Assessment of possible/ actual Impact of an initiative of peace

and conflict environment

“How mighpeace direc

might be m

For Example

- Will the initiative’s benefits generate

tensions or build bridges between groups in conflict?

- Will beneficiaries be specifically targeted because of the project?

- Will the initiative support (directly or indirectly) groups using violence, or groups using genuine dialogue and

participation?


Risk Assessment ent of degree to which conflict may he functioning and success of an onsideration of how to avoid impact n project; and possibly identificationrtunities to achieve project goals by decreased violent conflict or

peacebuilding space (e.g., access tonew areas, populations)

For Exam

- Are conditions in thstable enough to laun- Will project personne

targeted- Have peace initiative

for, & increased chinitiative’s suc

- Will/ do peace or conaffect the initiative’s a

and use necessarydistribute ben

Guiding QueRisk Assess

"Is this initiative possible withand what can I do to reduce th

by that conf

Central point of Reference:

Stated objectives of initiative

stions ment in the current conflict, e risk of failure causedlict?"

Guiding Questions PCIA

t this initiative create conflict or build tly or indirectly – and what changes

made to ensure positive impact and inimize negative impact?”

ple

e project area ch the project? l be specifically ? s opened space ances of, an cess? flict conditions

bility to acquire material OR efits?

9

III. PICA IN PRACTICE Now that you have learned about PCIA and its underlying principles, you are ready to begin the five step process involved in using PCIA

STEP 1 Assessing the environment STEP 2 Completing a risk and opportunity assessment STEP 3 Assessing potential peace and conflict impacts during project design STEP 3 Assessing potential peace and conflict impacts during project implementation STEP 4 Assessing potential peace and conflict impacts as part of post-project evaluation

STEP 1 Assessing the Environment The first step is to look at the environment with which you are dealing and establish whether it is conflict-prone. There are two important reasons why you need to be able to tell whether or not an area is conflict-prone:

1) PCIA is required only in conflict-prone areas: it would be burdensome, unnecessary and possibly counter-productive to apply PCIA to every project, program or initiative. The ability to tell the difference between a conflict-prone and a non-conflict-prone area (or more and less conflict-prone areas) allows you to decide when and where PCIA is necessary.

2) Different types of conflicts have different patterns, intensities, and impacts. The ability to analyze

conflicts is essential for anticipating and responding to possible impacts on a project or initiative.

Completing a Risk and Opportunity Assessment

How to tell you are in conflict-prone setting – before it is too late

Violent – usually military – conflict is taking place, or has taken place (conflict zones, post-conflict settings, transitional settings)

Competition over scarce resources (such as: water, agricultural land, and fish; grazing lands; access to education, public employment, or housing)

Absence of effective conflict management and resolution mechanisms

More than one group claims the right to have, govern, or use the same piece of land

Competition or disagreement over the allocation of the benefits of newly discovered resources (oil, diamonds, strategic minerals, etc.)

Unresolved socio-economic tensions (e.g., workers vs plantation owners; labourers vs land owners; unemployed vs corrupt government officials

A feeling by a group (or groups) that they have been "wronged" or exploited, and, possibly, the presence of a leader who is trying to use this feeling to fight for "justice." Or, the absence of a leader able to harness dissent constructively.

If you are working, or plan to

work, in areas affected by these tensions, then PCIA should be used, and you should move onto Step 2.

STEP 2

Now that you have determined that a location is conflict-prone, the second step is to undertake a Risk

and Opportunity Assessment. This will help you to better understand how the peace and conflict environment may affect a project or initiative. Before starting an initiative or project we need to decide whether it makes sense to try to work in a particular conflict environment, i.e., is there room to work in the area, or are the levels of violence too high and peace opportunities too low? Is the project appropriate – that is, does it have the right ingredients for success (personnel, operating procedures, peace and conflict sensitivities? What needs to be done to reduce the chance of failure of an initiative cause by conflict?) To answer these questions, we need to do a basic Risk and Opportunity Assessment of the ways in which the conflict may hinder a proposed project and to determine whether (and how) existing or newly-emerging peace capacities and resources may help it. While Risk and Opportunity Assessment needs to be undertaken before starting an initiative or project, it should be repeated throughout the life of an initiative. As a peace and conflict environment changes, and an initiative matures, it is important to return to these questions in order to monitor the on-going feasibility and appropriateness of the project. The worksheet below should help you to scan the peace and conflict environment in a systematic fashion, so that you may identify the risks and opportunities that may affect the success of your project/initiative.


10

Work sheet # 1 RISK AND OPPORTUNITY ASSESSMENT

ISSUE AREA

(Where to look)

RISK & OPPORTUNITY INDICATORS

(What to look at)

• Geographical extent of the project (where are the boundaries between areas of more violence &

areas of less violence, & where is the project located within this geography of violence?) • Status of territory where project is located(Ambiguous? Contested? Newly accessible?) • Level of Infrastructure & accessibility (Roads & transport? Water? Electricity? Housing?) What are the possible Impacts of the location on the proposed project/ initiative? What is happening in the peace and conflict environment (related to location) that may affect the project/ initiative?

RISKS

OPPORTUNITIES

Is more information needed to answer these questions? If so, what is it, and how do you get it?

1.1

LOCATION

What changes or clarifications are needed before you would start the project?


11

ISSUE AREA

(Where to look)


(What to look at)

• Current stage of the conflict (in the context of the history of the conflict – Stalemate? Escalating? "Paused"?)

• Current or future political, economic, social-cultural developments that might affect the project (e.g., trade agreements, changes to commodity prices, elections, arrival/departure of military forces, changes in size/composition of local populations)

• Increasing or decreasing opportunities to work in the area? (Are others working in/or leaving the area? If so, why?)

How might the timing of the proposed project/ initiative, affect its chances of success? What is happening in the peace and environment (related to timing) that may affect the project/ initiative?

RISKS

OPPORTUNITIES

Is more information needed? If so, what is it, and how do you get it?

1.2 TIMING



12

ISSUE AREA (Where to look)


(What to look at)

• Relationship between local communities, political, and military authorities? (cooperative? Difficult?

Distrustful? Conflict-creating. Who are the allies, “enemies,” scapegoats, beneficiaries, ignored ? How will this affect the project?

• Level of political support for the initiative/ project locally, regionally, nationally? • Predictability (or stability) of the political, legal, & security environments? • Presence or absence of peace initiatives (formal & informal/ local & national) Are they inclusive? If

not what are the major omissions? • Nature of the political system & possible impact on initiative. Are leaders’ accountability? What

are the levels and patterns of corruption? How is force/fear used politically (e.g., against women, opponents, and marginalized groups)? Are politically, economically, or socially sensitive issues affected by the initiative?

• External conditions (Structural Adjustment Programmes; Poverty Alleviation Programmes, "Wars on Terror"; Trade or Defence Treaties)

How might the changing political context (environment) affect the proposed project/ initiative? What is happening politically that may help or hurt the project/ initiative?

RISKS

OPPORTUNITIES


1.3

POLITICAL CONTEXT



13

• Relationship between armed actors (e.g., feuding within & between armed groups? Black market

cooperation?) Intensity, targets, & patterns of violence in initiative/project area? (How might this affect the

project?) How might it affect male and female beneficiaries?) What is the possible Impact of militarized conflict on the proposed project/ initiative? What is happening in the peace and conflict environment militarily that may affect the project/ initiative?

RISKS

OPPORTUNITIES

Is information needed? If so, what is it, and how do you get it?

1.4

MILITARY CONTEXT



14



(What to look at) Legacies of conflict in the area (physical security? Fear? War economy? Food security?

Infrastructure? Inter-group relations? Health? Psycho-social trauma? Changes in family dynamics?

Relations between and within main communities in project site (Cooperative? Inter-dependent? Competitive?) What are the dynamics within these relationships – e.g., gender, religious, cultural, economic, etc.?

Cultural factors that may affect the project (fear of external control; politicized rejection of "Western" or particular "religious" values; gender roles)

Economic relations within the project site (mutually dependent? Competitive? Corrupt? exploitative? Growing? Shrinking? War-dependent? )

Impact of conflict on local resources (resourcefulness & creativity; leadership capacities; enterprising spirit; hope; gender equity in tapping human resources

What socio-economic factors might affect on proposed project/ initiative? How? What is happening in the peace and conflict environment socio-economically that may affect the project/ initiative? Are there any exclusionary barriers that prevent inclusion and participation of certain category of populations?

RISKS

OPPORTUNITIES


1.5 SOCIO

ECONOMIC ISSUES



15

• Capacity of implementing organization, including qualified & suitable staff • Involvement of implementing organization in conflict or peace processes; & its "political" position or

acceptability within the area of the initiative • Choice of "beneficiaries": the political implications, inclusion of marginalized members of the

community. Are there any gender disparities? • Conditions for effective implementation (leadership; coordination; access; trust; technical capacities;

gender sensitivity • Ability of stakeholders to make choices & willingness to make changes. Are there any exclusionary

barriers negatively affecting the ability of male and /or female beneficiaries to participate? Is the project/ initiative appropriate (structure, objectives, process, etcetera)? What is happening in the peace and conflict environment that may affect the ability of partners or stakeholders to complete the project/ initiative successfully?

RISKS

OPPORTUNITIES

Is there more information needed? If so, what is it, and how do you get it?

1.6 PARTNERS/

STAKE- HOLDERS



16



(What to look at) Since every project location is unique, there are probably other factors that may affect the

project or initiative. Are there any other factors that might affect the project or initiative? How might they help or hurt? RISKS

OPPORTUNITIES


1.7 OTHER FACTORS



17

Example from "Tugal" Capacity Building Exercise (See Parts II & III) (A Basic Needs Project undertaken by the National Association of Farmers (NAF)



(What to look at) Legacies of conflict in the area (physical security? Fear? War economy? Food security?

Infrastructure? Inter-group relations? Health? Psycho-social trauma) Relations between main communities in project site (Cooperative? Inter-dependent?

Competitive?) Cultural factors that may affect the project (fear of external control; politicized rejection of

"Western" or particular "religious" values) Economic relations within the project site (mutually dependent? Competitive? Corrupt?

exploitative? Growing? Shrinking? War-dependent? ) Impact of conflict on local resources (resourcefulness & creativity; leadership capacities;

enterprising spirit; hope) What socio-economic factors might affect on proposed project/ initiative? How? What is happening in the peace and conflict environment socio-economically that may affect the project/ initiative? RISKS - Socio-Economic Environment may be, or may become too unstable to sustain project - Legacy of distrust/ silence may inhibit community participation; "Social infrastructure" (trust, willingness to participate, communication channels, etc.) may not be ready for the project - the rebels may not be interested in giving up governance by force for more democratic and participatory forms of governance - Rebels may to take control of the project - Black market forces and mafia may inhibit project - insufficient local resources for the project

OPPORTUNITIES - Returnees may bring useful resources for the project (skills, understandings, etc.,) - If all communities are equally affected by the war, then common needs might encourage common interests to support project activities - Neighbouring Country of Sylvania may be a source of additional resources for reconstruction - post-war optimism (by communities and political actors) may give the project an initial boost

Is more information needed? If so, what is it, and how do you get it? - How high are levels of corruption and extortion? How do other development projects deal with this? - Who within the Rebel Groups and within community groups are representative leaders that the project can work with/ through? Who are natural allies and peace advocates? [Source of info: field trips, consultation] - How open will the communities be to this initiative? [Source of info: field trips, consultation] - how will oil and mineral development affect the project? [Source of info: focused participatory study]

SOCIO

ECONOMIC

What changes or clarifications are needed before you would start the project? - Project may need to build in space and time for trust-building among partners. Draft plan for doing so - Project should formulate very specific responses to possible negative developments (war escalation; attempts to extort resources from the project; instances of intimidation; etc)


18

• Capacity of implementing organization, including qualified & suitable staff • Involvement of implementing organization in conflict or peace processes; & its "political" position

or acceptability within the area of the initiative • Choice of "beneficiaries" & the political implications • Conditions for effective implementation (leadership; coordination; access; trust; technical

capacities) • Ability of stakeholders to make choices & willingness to make changes Is the project/ initiative appropriate (structure, objectives, process, etcetera)? What is happening in the peace and conflict environment that may affect the ability of partners or stakeholders to complete the project/ initiative successfully? RISKS - Security risks to employees and partners - Lack of suitable employees; unwillingness of people to work in the East - Lack of experience working in post-conflict settings - Tensions with the Central Govt in Western Province - lack of participation, or interference, by rebels - May generate tensions between returnees and those who remained in the East

OPPORTUNITIES - NAF (project implementers) familiar with the project site - NAF has good reputation with local pop'n - Arrival of other development actors opens possibility of collaboration and mutual support

Is there more information needed? If so, what is it, and how do you get it? - How will the project monitor Risks and Opportunities throughout it life, for example, security risks? - How will beneficiaries be chosen? - What will be the hiring policies, esp. regarding ethnic/ gender composition? - Will there be a formal dispute management mechanism within the project to deal with tensions within the team, e.g., between "old" and "new guard"; between Muslims and Christians? Between NAF and local actors (individuals and orgs)?

PARTNERS/ STAKEHOLDERS

What changes or clarifications are needed before you would start the project? - Clarity on the above questions, and specific plan for managing these risks and opportunities throughout the life of the project

STEPS 3, 4 and 5

TIP: Before jumping into these crucial steps of PCIA, you may wish to review the table found following Worksheet #2, entitled "Where to Look for Peace and Conflict Impact," to make sure that we all share the same understanding of the words and terms used in the Worksheet. The table: (1) provides examples of

peace impacts and conflict impacts drawn from "real life" examples; and

(2) suggests some sample indicators of peace and conflict impact.

Having analysed ways in which the peace or conflict environment might affect a proposed project, the next task is to assess how the proposed project may affect peace or conflict both in the immediate area in which it will be working and beyond. They key to a successful PCIA is ensuring it is applied at every stage of the project cycle. Worksheet 2 (below) will help you through Steps 3, 4 and 5. You will notice that each step involves similar activities, but are done at different stages of a project:

Step 3: Pre-project PCIA. This step involves looking for the potential peace and/ or conflict impact of an initiative before a project begins, during the design and planning stage. Use the Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment worksheet provided below to guide you through completing a comprehensive pre-project PCIA.

Step 4: In-project PCIA. This step involves looking for peace and/ or conflict

impact while a project is underway, during project implementation. At this stage you are monitoring immediate impacts, both formally and informally, and making changes to project design and direction as necessary. Use the Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment worksheet provided below to guide you through completing a comprehensive in-project PCIA

Step 5: Post-project PCIA. The fifth step involves looking for the peace and/ or conflict impact after a project

or initiative has been completed. PCIA should be integrated into formal project evaluations, though an assessment can be done outside of the evaluation process as well. Use the Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment worksheet provided below to guide you through completing a comprehensive post-project PCIA.


19

Work sheet # 2 PEACE & CONFLICT IMPACT ASSESSMENT

PRE-PROJECT, IN-PROJECT, POST-PROJECT

AREAS OF POTENTIAL PEACE & CONFLICT IMPACT Capacity of state or civil society: (1) to manage or resolve conflict without the use (or threat) of violence, and without supporting authorities that use unlawful violence; and (2) to promote genuine and sustainable peace Impact on capacity to identify and respond to peacebuilding opportunities and conflict-creating challenges. This might include formal instruments (such as strengthening legal mechanisms or creating dispute resolution boards) or more informal mechanisms (such as low-key meetings, community leader interventions, creating channels for local level dialogue, tapping the peacebuilding abilities of neglected segments in the community such as women). Conflict management capacities might include:

1) the ability to think about and identify peacebuilding challenges and opportunities; 2) the ability of organizations to restructure themselves to respond peacebuilding challenges and opportunities; and 3) to change how they normally work so that they can respond more effectively and efficiently in ways that have a hard, positive, peacebuilding impact on the ground - for example, in ways that improve fairness, equity (including gender equity), "even-handedness," accountability, and transparency.

Sample Questions

Did/does/may the initiative help – or hinder -- individuals or groups (with civil society, the state, or the private sector) to identify and respond to peacebuilding opportunities and conflict –creating challenges? Who did/does/may this affect? How did/does/may it affect them – and why? Did/does/may the project increase or decrease the ability to imagine, describe and create options that nurture peace?

What were/are/might be the obstacles to a positive peacebuilding impact? How were/are/might the beneficial impacts be increased and made more sustainable both during and following the project.?

Peace Impact (potential or actual)

INDICATORS? Qualitative/ Quantitative

___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________

Conflict Impact (potential or actual)


___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ __________________ ___________________ ___________________

2.1

Conflict Management

Capacities

(1) Is more information needed? If so, what is it, and how do you get it? (2) What changes would you make to the project to increase its peacebuilding impact and decrease conflict-creating impact?


20

AREAS OF POTENTIAL PEACE & CONFLICT IMPACT

Direct and indirect impact on (1) patterns and levels of violence by militarised forces; and (2) an individual's and community's sense of security or insecurity -- including physical and mental well-being and sense of individual or group identity.

"Patterns of Violence": Different groups in society experience different levels (and types) of violence and therefore have different levels of insecurity and vulnerability, e.g., women, children, minority groups, marginalized groups, and returnees and other marginalized groups.

"Militarised forces" may include national armed forces, rebels, paramilitaries, war lords, militias, bandits, organized crime rings, vigilante groups, police – when they use military weapons, structures, and tactics. "Community" includes both resident populations and returning populations

Sample Questions

✓ Did/does/may the initiative or project affect the individual's sense of security, positively or negatively? ✓ Did/does/may the project affect the military/paramilitary/criminal environment - directly or directly, positively or negatively? If so

how? ✓ Will there be/ was there real improvements in the political, economic, physical, food, security among women and men? If so,

what are they? Who will benefit; and who will not benefit from improvements? Will this create conflict? How can benefits be more broadly or more fairly distributed?

✓ Did/does/may the project deepen our understanding, or increase the ability to deal with non-military causes violent conflict - e.g., environmental degradation, resources scarcity, political manipulation, disinformation, mobilization and politicization of identity, etc.?



___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________



___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________

2.2 Militarized Violence &

Human Security



21


Impact on formal and informal political structures and processes – this could apply from the local municipal level through to the national level. It refers to both the strengthening/ weakening of the governance capacities of different levels of government, and the ability/inability of civil society actors to participate in the political process actively and constructively.

This might be seen in: increased (or decreased) transparency, accountability, and participation in decisions affecting the public; the strengthening (or weakening) of the rule of law and representative government; increased/decreased (and more/less inclusive) levels of participation participation (in terms of geographic and sectoral group representation, especially the participation of women and other marginalized groups); the strengthening (or weakening) of the capacities of legitimate leaders; and the strengthening (or weakening) of anti-democratic forces.

Sample Questions

✓ Did/does/may the initiative or project help or hinder the strengthening of peacebuilding relationships within and between state and civil society?

✓ Did/does/may the initiative or project have an positive or negative impact on political structures and processes - either in the formal arena of politics (e.g., policy making and implementation, law making, constitutional politics) or in the informal arena of civil society (such as traditional authority structures)? If so, how? Did/does/may the initiative or project help or hinder the ability of individuals or groups to participate in democratic political processes? Did/will/ may it contribute to increasing the transparency, accountability, representativeness, and appropriateness of public decision-making?

✓ Did/does/may the initiative or project influence government (or civil society) priorities, or the way its policies are made? If so, in what ways?

✓ Did/does/may the initiative or project help defuse inter-group tensions? If so, how? ✓ What was/is/ may be the impact of the project on human rights conditions within a country or region? (e.g., awareness, legislation,

promotion and protection)



___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________



___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________

2.3

Political Structures & Processes



22


Impact on: strengthening or weakening equitable socio-economic structures and processes; distortion/conversion of war economies; economic infrastructure; conflicts over access to scarce basic goods; availability of investment capital to create economic and employment alternatives to war-fighting; the stability of the banking system; increasing or decreasing the economic dependence on military (or military-related) employment; productivity and the equitable distribution of non-war/ peace benefits; training; income generation; production of commercial products or services; food in/security; the exploitation, generation, or distribution of resources, esp. non-renewable resources and the material basis of economic sustenance or food security. Sample Questions Did/does/ may the initiative or project contribute to or detract from efforts to "re"-construct damaged economic and social infrastructure? Specifically: strengthening or weakening equitable socio-

economic structures/processes; distortion/conversion of war economies; economic infrastructure; supply of scarce basic goods; availability of investment capital to create economic

and employment alternatives to war-fighting for men and women;

the stability of the banking system with equitable access to men and women;

increasing or decreasing the economic dependence on military (or military-related) employment;

productivity and the equitable distribution of non-war/ peace benefits; training; income generation;

production of commercial products and services; food in/security;

the exploitation, generation, or distribution of resources, esp. non-renewable resources and the material basis of economic sustenance or food security.

If the initiative or project addresses or affects the following, does it do so in a way that minimizes or avoids destabilization and conflict, while maximizing peacebuilding opportunities? high level of debt unsustainable high military budgets skewed distribution of wealth, income, and assets resettlement of displaced populations environmental degradation - particularly that which inhibits

economic productivity damage assessment of social & economic infrastructure provide technical assistance for rehabilitation and

reconstruction rehabilitate and reconstruct economic infrastructure reactivate smallholder agriculture with consideration of the role

of women in the process rehabilitate the export sector rehabilitate key industries sharing the benefits of national wealth and resources?



___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________



___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________

2.4

Economic Structures

and Processes



23


Impact on: creation of a culture of peace – characterized by constructive social communication, tolerance, inclusiveness, justice, gender equity, participation, and respect. Confidence and capacity of all members of society (from the "weakest" to the "strongest") to effectively overcome obstacles to living a life which is good and satisfying.

2.5

Social Empowerment Sample Questions

Did/does/ may the initiative or project create or support equity and justice. Did/do/ will the benefits of the project be shared equitably by both genders? Did/ does/will the project include female and male members from all communities affected by violent conflict, or just one or some

communities? Why and how were they chosen? How will tensions of non-benefiting groups be managed? Did/does/will the project seek explicitly to "build bridges" between the different communities? If so, how? Effectiveness?

Did/does/will it help to create an inclusive - rather than exclusive - sense of community? Did/does/will it facilitate the ability of individuals and groups to work together for the mutual benefit?

Did/does/will the project contribute to positive communication/interaction between and within groups with no disparities due to gender? How can you ensure that this continues?

Did/does/ will it provide/create / strengthen the skills, tools, capacity for individuals and communities to (1) identify and define problems and (2) formulate and apply solutions to those problems?

Did/ will ill the initiative or project take into consideration the history/legacy of conflict in its design? Did/does/will it consider the specific impact on children, women and other vulnerable groups such as displaced populations, and the politically, socially and economically marginalized.

Did/does/will the initiative or project increase contact, confidence, or trust between the communities? Will/does/did it dispel distrust? Did/does/will it create common interests, or encourage individuals and groups to see their common interests, and did/does/will it help to modify behaviours so that they can achieve shared interests?

To what extend did/does/will the project incorporate/privilege the views and interests of affected indigenous populations? Did/does/may the project help to the "demilitarize minds"? That is, does it enable individuals to develop and use non-military

means of thinking about and resolving conflicts and disagreements. This includes the cultural and socio-psychological tendency of individuals and groups to accept and use militarised ways of managing conflict and disputes (military rule; use of the military to "deal with labour disputes; media and movies that glorify military violence; and so on).

Peace Impact (potential or actual) INDICATORS? Qualitative/ Quantitative

___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________

Conflict Impact (potential or actual) INDICATORS? Qualitative/ Quantitative

___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________

1) Is there more information needed? If so, what is it, and how do you get it? (2) What changes would you make to the project to increase its peacebuilding impact and decrease conflict-creating impact?


24


25HANDS-ON PCIA Kenneth Bush, October 2003

25

WHERE TO LOOK FOR POTENTIAL PEACE OR CONFLICT IMPACT

EXAMPLES

AREAS OF POTENTIAL PEACE

& CONFLICT IMPACT

PEACE IMPACT CONFLICT IMPACT

1

Conflict Management Capacities

(1) Gender-sensitive initiatives in conflict prone areas that hire, train, and keep local personnel– especially in administrative, technical, and management positions – are strengthening governance capacities which may be used in state & societal institutions that deal with conflicts non-violently. Unfortunately, this is the technical and managerial capacity that flees when non-violent conflict turns (or re-turns) violent. (2) Efforts by many organizations (international, governmental, and non-governmental) to include conflict resolution and peacebuilding workshops (and increasingly, PCIA) into their daily work is a substantive contribution to the development of capacities for peace. (3) Initiatives that maintain effective "outreach," "public dialogue," or participatory activities help to keep stakeholders involved and build inter-group trust and understanding. (4) Initiatives to tap the peacebuilding abilities of women in activities that focus on conflict resolution, mediation, and community peace promotion and advocacy.

One of Kosovo's most experienced human rights activists who had been trained in Norway and Geneva had helped to establish a women's legal aid center in the 1990s. However, during the UN-driven reconstruction exercise she was reduced to a "local employee" of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to translate for international staff with a fraction of her experience. Officially, she was unable even to take testimony from victims. This reservoir of local talent should have been the centerpiece of the UN reconstruction strategy. However, because of the reliance on foreign "experts," the overall impact was a contribution to the incapacity -- rather than capacity -- of civil society to rebuild itself upon a foundation of tolerance and respect of its own creation. (Guest 2000)

SAMPLE INDICATORS*

• # of conflicts in which gov'tal/ non-gov'tal

bodies are involved as mediators, facilitators, negotiators, etc.

• Perception of local mediators and aggrieved parties that conflict can be resolved without use of violence

• Number conflict resolution workshops – and follow-up

• Differences in the impact of conflict on men and women; • # and types of interventions targeted to address both

women and men considering the differences in the nature of conflict impact and priorities

• Respect for process and outcomes of dispute settlement through public institutions

• Belief in possibility of receiving fair treatment/ outcomes through public institutions • Perception that violence is not a legitimate or effective means of resolving conflict • Degree to which peace and conflict issues are considered in the formulation and

operation of initiatives ('Do No Harm," PCIA, Conflict-Sensitive Programming, etc)

(These indicators may or may not apply to specific cases. Quantitative and qualitative indicators should be developed. Communities should have complete latitude to identify indicators that make sense to them and their realities)

HANDS-ON PCIA Kenneth Bush, August 2003

26

EXAMPLES


& CONFLICT IMPACT


2 Militarized Violence and

Human Security

(1) The inclusion of ex-combatants in peace and reconstruction work in both Nicaragua and parts of Mindanao were clear efforts to "deconstruct the structures of militarized violence" and to "construct the structures of peace." (2) In many cases, the negotiations for humanitarian ceasefires (e.g., for National Immunization Days) have opened up communication channels that have later contributed directly to longer cease fires and even peace talks—as in Sri Lanka. (Bush 2000). In Somalia, the demand from the local population that their children be immunized led local leaders to de-mine roads to permit access for vaccination teams. Orders were issued to combatants that no weapons were to be displayed on the days of the immunization campaigns. Such initiatives have dampened militarized violence and increased human security.

Working with, or through, groups which use illegitimate violence and abuse human rights – for example for the protection of convoys, compounds, and offices, or as middlemen for the provision of goods and services– is an obvious example of how an initiative can strengthen rule by force and violence (threatened and actual).

SAMPLE INDICATORS* • Conflict-related deaths or injuries • Disappearances • Incidence of human rights abuses, including rape, sexual torture

and violations of children`s rights – and effectiveness of official responses to reports of such violations

• Levels of domestic violence • Number of riots or other uncontrolled expressions of dissent • Demonstrations

• Number of displaced people • Rate and patterns of repatriation/ displacement • Arrests or detention without probable cause or warrant • Incommunicado detention • Cruel, unusual, or degrading treatment in detention • Inhumane conditions of detainment • Dependence on private security forces

• Perceptions of individual and collective security • Levels of criminality (effectiveness of state responses) • # of small arms in circulation (e.g., black market price of an

assault rifle) • Number of children, women and men involved in military

activities • Level of food security



27

EXAMPLES


& CONFLICT IMPACT


3

Political Structures and

Processes

(1) In the late 1990s, the Group for Environmental Monitoring in South Africa undertook a far-reaching participatory, applied research project on the linkages between "militarization and ecology." The positive peace impact was clear in (1) the word-for-word inclusion of its research and recommendations in government defense policy; and (2) the mobilization of non-English speaking peasants for the project enabled these groups to continue to express their concerns long after the project was finished, and to contribute to on-going dialogue with government on policiecs affecting their lives and livelihoods. (2) Sustained efforts by local groups In the southern Philippines to create Zones of Peace are inspirational examples of how the mobilization of ideas and people can begin to restructure the political and military structures to create peace from the ground up – even in the midst of on-going violence.

The decision to accept the cheapest bid to rebuild a water tank in a rebel-controlled area of Country X in 2002 produced a host conflict-creating impacts. Because the project was undertaken by a rebel-controlled front company, workers were forced to work for free, tractor owners were forced to donate the use of their equipment; and funds that should have gone to pay for labour, equipment and material, seem to have become a significant financial contribution to the rebels. The project reinforced the anti-democratic rule of the rebel group, and had a further negative development impact when the water tank was washed out during the rainy season. The imposition of "solutions" by outside actors to the benefit of the imposing power, and the impoverishment of the recipient communities. For example: the imposition of inappropriate "reforms" or "solutions" by a central govt in marginal or conflict-affected areas; the bankrupting of a country by conditions imposed by International Financial Institutions in countries (such as Argentina); or imperialistic invasions such as the war by G.W. Bush in Iraq.

SAMPLE INDICATORS *

• Freedom of speech/ media • Presence of multi-communal political parties/ business groups/ civil

society orgs • Free and fair elections (levels of participation in elections)

• Levels of emergency rule in parts or all of the country • Freedom of movement public participation in, or influence on,

the policy making process

• Perceptions and evidence of corruption • Popular perceptions that the political, legal, and security

systems are fair, effective, and responsive – or not



28

EXAMPLES


& CONFLICT IMPACT PEACE IMPACT CONFLICT IMPACT

4

Economic Structures and Processes

(1) In Ethiopia, in the mid-1990s, water projects improved access of displaced pastoralists to water, and thus reduced a major sources of conflict with local populations. (2) In Somalia in the early 1990s, shopkeepers and merchants were actually supporting violence and looting because their regular supplies of agricultural goods for their markets had been destroyed by the drought and clan conflict. In an attempt to resolve this problem, a development worker named Fred Cuny talked a number of a number of development agencies to implement programmes which involved selling food aid to these merchants on a regular basis at stable prices in order to reduce their dependence on looted supplies, and to return merchants to their traditional role as self-interested defenders of law and order seeking the stability necessary for normal commercial activity. The projects encouraged merchants to apply pressure on the militias to limit their disruption, and to cut off a source of funding to the militias who used the merchants' payments to purchase more weapons. (Source: Natsios 1997)

Uneven distribution of public resources (jobs, water, pensions, etc.); payment of "taxes" to warrior organizations; discriminatory hiring practices; weakening private market forces by working through war economies. In the mid-1990s, many international actors sought to strengthen the economic security of Russia as a means of reducing instability in a country of war-prone regions. One particular area of activity was the re-writing of Russia's bankruptcy laws. By forcing companies that had been ignoring their creditors to finally pay their debts, the new legislation led to big increase in bankruptcies -- which rose to 11,000 in 1999 from 4,300 in 1997. With weak, money-losing companies out of the market, analysts hoped that the Russian economy would become more competitive and "robust.". Instead, powerful politicians and "businessmen" (some with murky links to organized crime) often had their cronies named as court-appointed managers of troubled companies, allowing them to take over some of the firms and strip them of any prize assets, thereby contributing to economic insecurity, rather than security. (Maclean's, 20 May 2002, p. 65)

SAMPLE INDICATORS* • Dependence on war economies (e.g., use of black market; reliance

on (para) military employment) • # of jobs created in non-military related sectors • Ratio of military expenditure to social expenditures by state • Pre- versus post-conflict export (and investment) levels • Level of economic control by local or national actors for local or

national interests

• National unemployment rate versus rate among vulnerable

populations (ex-combatants, returnee and displaced populations, war-disabled, widows, youth, war-affected regions)

• Dependence on external assistance

• Availability of basic goods to all communities • Personal savings rates • Regional and national inflation rates • Strength of foreign currency • # and size of new businesses



29

EXAMPLES

AREAS OF POTENTIAL

PEACE & CONFLICT IMPACT PEACE IMPACT CONFLICT IMPACT

5

Social Empowerment

A project in Haiti to reconstruct the police force specifically recruited from communities which had suffered rights abuses, because it was felt that they were most sensitive to the need to protect and promote such rights. Mentoring relationships between urban planning professional across inter-group boundaries in Bosnia Herzegovina supported the development not only technical capacities, but inter-group communication and understanding as well.

It is increasingly common to "consult" with communities before launching an initiative (sometimes this is the first and only time of contact). To the extent that these meetings accept and work through the existing social power structure, then they may reinforce social inequities and tensions. For example, authority structures which dis-empower women, or certain social or economic groups.

SAMPLE INDICATORS*

• Sense of local ownership over peace processes • Levels of tolerance/ distrust within cultural, social, ethnic, political,

religious organizations • Level and type of social interactions between groups • Levels of inter-marriage • Levels of bilingualism (where language is a political issue) • Level of participation by "marginalized" or "dis-empowered" groups

(women, the poor, the disenfranchised)

• # of cross-cutting cultural or social organizations; • Inclusive/ exclusive schooling system • Adult and children's perceptions of other groups/ levels of

Stereotyping; Role of the media/ levels of censorship • Levels of trust between groups • Rejection of a gun culture/ militarized culture (glorification

military violence) • # of locally-initiated and run peacebuilding initiatives

• Level of dependence on outside support in conflict resolution

and peacebuilding • Number of families dislocated by conflict • Number of families with at least one member who is "missing" • Levels of "trauma" within communities and degree to which it

interferes with normal activities. Effectiveness of responses to this trauma.

• Suicide rates (who? Where? Why?)



30

Referents in the Evolution of the idea of PCIA 1996

• "Good Practices for the PCIA of Development Projects," CIDA Discussion Paper, OECD DAC Taskforce on Conflict, Peace, and Development Cooperation, Paris, 16-17 September. Prepared by Kenneth Bush.

• "Local Capacities for Peace Project" launched by Mary Anderson's Collaborative for Development Action, Boston.

• Joint Evaluation of Emergency Assistance to Rwanda, The International Response to Conflict and Genocide: Lessons From the Rwanda Experience, 5 vols. Steering Committee of the Joint Evaluation of Emergency Assistance to Rwanda, Copenhagen (March)

1997 • Evaluation of Norwegian Assistance to Peace, Reconciliation and Rehabilitation in Mozambique, Astri

Suhrke et al., Christian Michelsen Institute/ Nordic Consulting Group, Bergen, Norway. • "Conflict Reduction Through British Cooperation," DIFD, London.

1998 A Measure of Peace: PCIA of Development Projects in War Zones, Kenneth Bush, International

Development Research Centre (IDRC), Ottawa, Canada http://www.idrc.ca/peace/p1/working_paper1.html • Workshop: "Do No Harm Meets PCIA," IDRC. • OECD DAC Guidelines on Conflict Peace and Development Cooperation on the Threshold of the 21st

Century, Paris. http://www.oecd.org/dac • Conflict Prevention and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: A Matrix of Analytical Tools Available

Internationally for Peacebuilding and Donor Coordination, CIDA Peacebuilding Unit. 1998

• "Programming for Results in Peacebuilding: Challenges and Opportunities in Setting Performance Indicators," Anne-Marie Laprise, CIDA, Hull, Canada, May.

• "Tugal" Capacity Building Exercise. IDRC 1999

• Do No Harm: How Aid Can Support Peace – or War, Mary Anderson, Lynne Rienner, Boulder and London

• The Limits and Scope for the Use of Development Cooperation Incentives and Disincentives for Influencing Conflict Situations (with Case Studies on Sri Lanka, Rwanda, Bosnia & Afghanistan)

• "Strategic Conflict Analysis and Conflict Impact Assessment," Michael Warner, Robert Walker, and Robert Scharf, DFID, London, August.

2000 • Conflict Impact Assessment of EU Development Cooperation with ACP Countries, Manuela Leonhardt,

International Alert and Safer World, London • Assessment of Lessons Learned from Sida Support to Conflict Management and Peacebuilding, 3

Vols., Sida Dept for Coordination with NGOs and Humanitarian Assistance. Stockholm, Sweden. http://www.sida.se/evaluation

2002 • The Berghof Debates on PCIA: The Berghof Handbook for Conflict Transformation (Berlin: Berghof

Research Center for Constructive Conflict Management, 2001). http//:www.berghof-center.org/handbook/cf.htm

2002 • Conducting Conflict Assessments: Guidance Notes, DFID, London. http//:www.dfid.gov.uk

2002 • The Evaluation of Conflict Resolution Interventions: Framing the State of Play, INCORE

http://www.incore.ulst.ac.uk/home/publication/research/index.html

2003 • "Looking at Conflict In the Eye: Community-Based Mapping and Impact Assessment," Training

Conference for Local Resource Partners of the Philippines-Canada Local Government Support Program (LGSP), Davao, January.

• "Good Practices by Local Governments in Peace and Unity – Case Studies and Tools," Federation of Local Municipalities, Ottawa, Canada (with case studies from Palestine, Bosnia Herzegovina, and the Philippines.)


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http://www.idrc.ca/peace/p1/working_paper1.html

http://www.oecd.org/dac

http://www.sida.se/evaluation

http://www.berghof-center.org/handbook/cf.htm

http://www.berghof-center.org/handbook/cf.htm

References Anderson (1999), Mary, Do No Harm: How Aid can Support Peace -- or War (Boulder and London: Lynne

Reinner). Berghof Research Centre for Constructive Conflict Management (2001). Berghof Hand Book for Conflict

Transformation. Section on PCIA. Contributors are: Mark Hoffman, Kenneth Bush, Manuela Leonhardt, Christoph Feyen, Hans Gsaenger, Marc Howard Ross and jay Rothman. http://www.berghof-center.org/handbook

Bush, Kenneth (2001). "Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment (PCIA) Five Years On: The Commodification of

an Idea," The Berghof Handbook for Conflict Transformation (Berlin: Berghof Research Center for Constructive Conflict Management, 2001). Html www.berghof-center.org/handbook/bush/

----- (2000). "Polio, War, and Peace," Bulletin of the World health Organizations: The International Journal of

Public Health, 78(3). http://www.who.int/bulletin -----, A Measure of Peace: Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment (PCIA) of Development Projects in Conflict

Zones, Working Paper #1, (Ottawa: International Development Research Centre, 1998). http://www.idrc.ca/peace/p1/working_paper1.html

----- (1996). "Good Practices for the PCIA of Development Projects," CIDA Discussion Paper, OECD DAC

Taskforce on Conflict, Peace, and Development Cooperation, Paris, 16-17 September. COWI (1997). Evaluation of Norwegian Humanitarian Assistance to Sudan – Evaluation Report 11.97 (Oslo: Royal

Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

Guest, Iain, "Misplaced Charity Undermines Kosovo's Self-Reliance," The Overseas Development Council, February 2000. http://www.odc.org/commentary/vpfeb00.html

Natsios, Andrew (1997). "An NGO Perspective," in I. William Zartman and J. Lewis Rasmussen, eds., Peacemaking in International Conflict: Methods and Techniques (Washington, D.C.: US Institute for Peace). Pp. 337-364.


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http://www.berghof-center.org/handbook

http://www.berghof-center.org/handbook

http://www.berghof-center.org/handbook/bush/

http://www.who.int/bulletin

http://www.idrc.ca/peace/p1/working_paper1.html

http://www.odc.org/commentary/vpfeb00.html

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