Part Four
description
Transcript of Part Four
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Part FourPhysical & Social Erosion
GlobalizationThe Metropolitan AreaDeclining Birth Rates
[Agents of Transformation]
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Agents of TransformationCrumbling Towns
The Underlying Forces of Rural Change – Emerging Behavior in Persistently Declining Communities
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Transforming Experience
I once woke up and thought that I was dead, but then I realized that I was in NebraskaClint Eastwood
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A Matter of PerspectiveDangerous Missouri Building – 87 years old
Vibrant Town Center of Haddington, Scotland – 570 years old
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100 Years of Use, But 50 Years of Neglect
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Our basic stock of commercial and industrial buildings create wealth in the form of tax transfers
on property and at the point of sale.
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The highway still may wind through country towns, but these have been struck with "rural blight': shuttered Main Street businesses and crumbling buildings. Homemade cobbler or fresh peaches are nowhere to be found, though you might be able to pick up a bag of Oreos at a tiny gas pump/convenience store. The towns seem on the verge of disappearance. Few would regret leaving this landscape.
Ron “Doc” Postun
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• The brick towns of the Great Plains are the agents of their own destruction
• The bricks were quick fired and lose their compression strength at the point of contract with the foundation
• The typical Great Plains town is now 120 years old• About 70% of CBD buildings are owned by
absentee landlords• About 20% are
abandoned• Marginal Restoration =
$275,000+ which is about $50 per sq. ft.
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Restoration is still possible, but now almost totally relegated to the private market after withdrawal of block grants
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• We expend, on the average, about 18 percent on our total tax take on infrastructure & repair
• Three general periods when our existing infrastructure was installed –– 1919 – 1929– 1947 – 1966– 1976 – 1984
• To replace our current infrastructure by 2040 for 454 million people will require at least 32 percent of our tax take
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In Other Words
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Agents of TransformationEmergent Globalization
Globalization Is An Emerging Globalization Is An Emerging Set of Goals, Policies, and Set of Goals, Policies, and Applications Designed To Applications Designed To Increase The Wealth Of Local, Increase The Wealth Of Local, Regional, And Sub-National Regional, And Sub-National AreasAreas
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• Sovereignty, Globalization Outsourcing & Tax
– The “vanishing taxpayer” – harmonizing global taxes
– The terrible economic cost to the developing world compliments of the World Bank
– Cheap labor, cheaper goods and the race to the bottom are the flip side of globalization
– The bottom line is that wage earners, will be privatized to compete with the self-employed
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• Please note that globalization may not increase your wealth, but like democracy itself – you can be assured that you will get what you deserve!
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• The most noticeable immediate impact of globalization is The New Economy. This refers to the idea that the broad application of information technology throughout the globe has altered the rules previously thought to govern the business cycle, investment, knowledge transfer and economic development strategy
New Economy
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800 – 950 teraflops per second @ 31 GHz
19701986199020052015
200 – 274 Mbps DSN4 @ 3.5 GHz
Arpanet/Internet/Internet II Backbone Speeds
56 Kbps @ 16 MHz
300 bps @ 1 MHz
15 Mbps @ 66 MHz
2.33 – 2.67 THz
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Rigging the Market
For our rural communities to stay with the curve in thenew economy, they must “rig” the market by:
•Jobs creation Connecting to the backbone Public/private partnerships
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Creating Image
We must create a new image of ourselves – no more Dorothy & TOTO
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Born of New Ideas
New Synergies and Models for the 21st Century Globalism
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•Changing economic forces at the global level will create a new layer of stress on the fight for local resources•The pressure to replace infra-structure will reach a critical cycle from 2016 – 2030 as the 1955 interstate highway disintegrates•Declining infrastructure means less tax revenue•We all sit at the same trough when it comes to tax revenue
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Metropolitan Forces Implosion and Expansion
• Def – One or more counties with an urban area of 50,000 population or more; or, a place that comprises a component economic area of 50,000 persons or more
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Percent of Total World Population Living Rural
Rural Now Rural 2020Rural 2050 Rural 3000
Tipping point came in 2005 when the world went 51% metropolitan 49 percent rural
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Our Global Village 2050
Asians
Africans
LatinAmericans
EasternEurope.
NorthAmericans
Aus./N.Z.
RussianFederation
WestEurope
584
124
84
6755
52
6
28
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The Metro Engine Since 1970
5 - 10 Million Persons 10 - 15 Million Persons 15 Million Or More0
5
10
15
20
25197019852000
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World Metropolitan Agglomeration
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NASA – Composite of 2,204 pictures from Hubble Telescope with light enhancement 102%
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Growth % Land Use
Tokyo-Yokohama
31.7 million 2030 sq mi
New York Region
30.2 million 4445 sq mi
Buenos Aires 11.2 million 1070 sq miPhiladelphia 5.1 million 1799 sq milesCairo 12.2 million 1186 sq. milesJakarta 17 million 1000 sq. milesMexico City 17.2 million 570 sq. miles
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Atlanta v. Mexico City
Mexico City Metro 17.2 million
570 sq. miles
10 year level annualized cost differential for service &
infrastructure708 billion
Atlanta Metro 3.9 million1963 sq, miles
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Superermetro•In 2003, United Nations’ Census Estimates Would Indicate That 10 Supermetros Are 15 million persons or larger
What are the top five?
When will we see the first 50 million person metro?
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World’LargestTokyo – Yokohama = 31.2 millionTokyo – Yokohama = 31.2 million
New York Urban Region = 30.286 millionNew York Urban Region = 30.286 millionMexico City Urban Region = 23.9 millionMexico City Urban Region = 23.9 million
Seoul Urban Agglomeration = 22.1 millionSeoul Urban Agglomeration = 22.1 millionSao Paulo Urban Region = 20.3 millionSao Paulo Urban Region = 20.3 million
Mumbia (Bombay) could be largerMumbia (Bombay) could be larger
In 1996 the first Supermetro passed 30 million. The first 50 million Megametro is expected to occur in 2029 -
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Rural v Metro Growth 2060
1970
2000
2030
2060Urban Rural0
50100150200250300350400450
Bureau of Census, Middle Projection Series - 2060
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Growth in the USA
U.S. Population in 1950
162. millionWorld Population
19502.550 billion
U.S. Population in 2050
419 millionWorld Population
20509.190 billion
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Compared to China
Watch these age groups
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The Non-Metro Side
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Basic American Rural Demography
• A vital piece of American• Seventy-nine percent of our
land mass• Home to 24 million people• A striking combination of the
best and the worst America has to offer
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� Over I million Over I million 10 10
�. 5 to 1 Million . 5 to 1 Million 14 14
�.25 to .499 Million .25 to .499 Million 42 42
�.1 to .249 Million .1 to .249 Million 153 153
� 50,000 to 99,999 50,000 to 99,999 347347
� 25,000 to 49,999 25,000 to 49,999 597 597
� 10,000 to 24,999 10,000 to 24,999 1,3661,366
� Under 10,000 Under 10,000 16,80816,808
� Under 5,000 Under 5,000 12,34512,345
� Under 1,000 Under 1,000 7,842 7,842
United States Of AmericaAll census counting places 2003 estimated: 19,335 places
There are 53 metropolitan areas in the U.S. larger than 1,000,000 persons
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Non-Metropolitan and Metropolitan Counties
2004
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County Typologies
Non-Metro in 1990 & 2000 (2007 counties)
Non-Metro to Metro 1990 – 2000 (298)
Metro to Non-Metro 1990 – 2000 (45)
Metro in 1990 & 2000 (791 counties)
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Farm Dependent Counties
1950 2000
2020
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Really, Really Rural
These two colors are not good
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The Heartland
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Shifting Population Core 1990 - 2000
Red = 8% increase of moreYellow = 1 – 7 percentWhite = little change or decline
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Percent Change in K-12 Students 1990 - 2000
Percent Change in K-12 Students: 1989-99 to 1999-00Loss: 11% or moreLoss: 0% to 10.9%Gain: 0% to 8.9%Gain: 9% to 23.9%Gain: 24% or moreNot Applicable
Green is Bad
Kusler & Schwartbeck - 2004
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Growth Patterns 1950 - 2000
Dark purple represents continuous decline
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Quick Facts• There are 3141 County census counting areas
• 2398 gained population, but the gain in 400 of these counties is marginal
• 1743 lost population
• About 600 counties lost less than 2% of their population
• About 400 counties lost 10% or more• 60% of the entire loss came from the Great
Plains/West States
38%
52%
10%
GainedLost
Little Change
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The Twilight Zones
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Frontier Counties of the U.S. With Less Than 6 persons sq.
mile
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Frontier County Demographics
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Rural Counties of the U.S.
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U.S. Rapid Growing Counties
• 20 counties increased population from 75 to 181 percent 1990 – 2000
• 8 are in Colorado; 2 in Nevada
• 4 are in Georgia; 1 in Virginia• 2 in Texas; 2 in Utah; 1 in
Idaho
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Student Enrollment in Rural Counties
• The states with the highest percentages of rural schools with declining enrollments were Louisiana, Idaho, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
• The spiraling cost of health insurance is yet another factor in rural school closures One district planned on a 9% increase and was hit with a 26% increase
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K-12 School Distribution
Nearly 60 percent of the nation's school districts are rural, but they teach only 20 percent of the total student population, according to the U.S. Department of Education
60%
40%
0%
Urban Rural
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The Bottom LineForecast – If business as usual continues • 411 counties will
require consolidation • 339 counties will be in
severe stress• 86 counties will have
moderate stress• 1,469 counties will be
in fat city• 836 solid counties
metro
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And What Are the Measures of Stress
• Median Age over 41 years• Median Age over 45 years• Ratio of 13 – 17 year olds to the # of
children aged 0 12 years• Raw birth rate approaching 1.8/1,000• Median family income more than -1.7 S
deviations from state mean• Population loss for 4 consecutive
decades• Population loss greater than 50 percent
1920 - 2000
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Sounds Bad?The U.S. is actually in pretty good shape
41.1 percent less population
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Europe is Rapidly Changing
EUROPE AS A WHOLE WILL PROBABLY LOSE ABOUT 20 MILLION PEOPLE OVER THE NEXT 40 YEARS
• Two counter forces combine to place stress on a global rural population– Population change
through growth which favors the metropolitan place
– Population change in demographics
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In March, 2005 There Are 6.71 Billion People
It is a time for choices
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The Population Clock
• 236,012 persons 236,012 persons were born todaywere born today
• 98,603 persons will 98,603 persons will die todaydie today
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Projected World Population to 2050
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Implosion
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Italy is in Free Fall
Population Loss in Italy Approx. 28% by 2040
.9809 fertility rate to reduce to .8997 by 2040
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Similar Situations
• Spain Severe Decline• Albania Severe Decline• Czech Rep. Decline• Austria Decline• Poland Severe Decline• Greece Decline• Romania Significant Decline
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Conclusions
• Boom and bust according to the standard scenario
• Will occur from about 2000 – 2050
• European economies will be even more dependent on guest workers
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