Part 1. Briefs of the NEM · 2013. 7. 30. · 3 Market nodes and inter regional links and their...

Analysing the performance of the Australian National Electricity Market

Xinmin Hu AGSM and CEEM, University of New South Wales,

30 November 2004

2

Part 1. Briefs of the NEM

3

Market nodes and interregional links and their nominal transmission capacities and installed capacities as of October 2004

Remind: Just a notional network potential 16 node model under debate

Regions of the National Electricity Market QLD 10,200MW

NSW 12,114MW

SNOWY 3676MW

TAS 2509MW

VIC 8528MW

SA 3526MW

180 MW

750 MW

3000 MW

850 MW

1500 MW

1100 MW

630 MW

300 MW

Expected time of commission: 2005

Directlink Feb, 2000

NEM installed capacity around

42,504MW

Murraylin

k 220MW

Oct 4, 20

02;

Oct 9, 20

03 regula

ted

Heywood 1989

QNI Feb 14, 2001

SNI

4

Pricing and dispatch of electricity �

� � �� ≥

Dispatch offers (ten prices for one trading day, ten quantity bands for each halfhour corresponding to the ten prices; rebids allowed up to realtime dispatch)

Dispatch algorithm—NEMDE: a linear programming maximising the trading value of electricity (energy + FCAS) subject to operating constraints

Region reference prices and dispatch targets: generation to meet 5mins forecast demand, RRPs = shadow prices of regional balance constraints

5

Part 2. Overview of market: generation sector composition, and trends of price and demand

6

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

NSW QLD VIC SA SNOWY

Total Capacity Dispatchable Capacity

Coal 69%

Gas 12%

Hydro 12% Oil

2% Others 5%

0

50

100

150

200

250

12

15

18

22

26

29

32

36

39

42

45

48

51

69

85

Total no. units

no. MS

No. MNS

0

50

100

150

200

250

12

15

18

22

26

29

32

36

39

42

45

48

51

69

85

Total no. units

no. MS

No. MNS

No. generating units re

gistered

with NEM

MCO over the time

Overview of market compositions

MS: market scheduled

MNS: market nonscheduled

NEMMCO generators and load registration file version number

7

Installed capacities by fuel types in the four NEM regions. Gas (except SA), Hydro, and Renewable are against the secondary axis. The bottom axis is the version number of the registration files.

11400

11450

11500

11550

11600

11650

11700

11750

12

15

18

22

26

29

32

36

39

42

45

48

51

69

85 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Coal hydro Gas Renewable

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12

15

18

22

26

29

32

36

39

42

45

48

51

69

85 0

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Coal Hydro Gas Renewable

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

12

15

18

22

26

29

32

36

39

42

45

48

51

69

85 0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Coal Gas Hydro Renewable

6380

6390

6400

6410

6420

6430

12

15

18

22

26

29

32

36

39

42

45

48

51

69

85 0

500

1000

1500

2000

Coal Hydro Gas Renewable

NSW VIC (increase 530 MW peaking capacity 20012002)

QLD (increase 2000MW 20002001) SA (increase 800 MW peaking units 20012002)

Gas including oil (diesel & distillate) units, renewable including biomass, bagasse, wind

8

Generation in percentage (not yet multiplied by 100) by fuel types in four NEM regions for the 18:00 trading intervals from April 12, 1999 to August 31, 2004

0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95

1 1.05 1.1

12/4/1999

13/8/1999

14/1/2000

16/5/2000

16/9/2000

17/1/2001

20/5/2001

20/10/2001

21/2/2002

25/6/2002

30/10/2002

7/3/2003

11/7/2003

16/11/2003

20/3/2004

22/7/2004

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

Coal Renewable Hydro Gas

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

12/4/1999

13/8/1999

14/1/2000

16/5/2000

16/9/2000

17/1/2001

20/5/2001

20/10/2001

21/2/2002

25/6/2002

30/10/2002

7/3/2003

11/7/2003

16/11/2003

20/3/2004

22/7/2004

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12


0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

12/4/1999

13/8/1999

14/1/2000

16/5/2000

16/9/2000

17/1/2001

20/5/2001

20/10/2001

21/2/2002

25/6/2002

30/10/2002

7/3/2003

11/7/2003

16/11/2003

20/3/2004

22/7/2004

0

0.05

0.1

0.15 0.2

0.25


0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

1.2

12/4/1999

11/8/1999

10/1/2000

10/5/2000

8/9/2000

7/1/2001

8/5/2001

6/10/2001

5/2/2002

6/6/2002

10/10/2002

13/2/2003

16/6/2003

20/10/2003

19/2/2004

22/6/2004

Coal Hydro Gas

NSW VIC

QLD SA

9

Frequency distributions of demand (MW, left) and prices ($/MWh, right) in NSW (top) and VIC (bottom) (JanSept for 2004) from halfhour trading data

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

3500 5500 7500 9500 11500 13500

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04

2500 3500 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5

5 15

25

35

50

120

500

4000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

5 15

25

35

50

120

500

4000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

10

n

n t t t

x x x x , , , at times

observed , , , , : series data Given 1 0

2 1 0 Λ

Λ Historic Volatilities σ

∑ ∑ = = −

−

−

−

− −

− −

− −

= n

i

n

i i i

i i

i i

i i

t t x x

n t t x x

n 1 1 2

1

1

1

1 ) log log 1 log log ( 1

1 σ

median percentile ) 1 ( at data percentile at data th th α α σ − − =

mean and deviation standard are and where

) ) ( 1 ln( 2

µ µ

σ

x

x

s

s + =

11

Monthly price and load volatilities from December 1998 to September 2004

0 0.5 1

1.5 2

2.5 3

3.5 4

4.5

Dec98

Jun99

Dec99

Jun00

Dec00

Jun01

Dec01

Jun02

Dec02

Jun03

Dec03

Jun04

price load

0 0.5 1

1.5 2

2.5 3

3.5 4

4.5

Dec98

Jun99

Dec99

Jun00

Dec00

Jun01

Dec01

Jun02

Dec02

Jun03

Dec03

Jun04

price demand

0 0.5 1

1.5 2

2.5 3

3.5 4

4.5

Dec98

Jun99

Dec99

Jun00

Dec00

Jun01

Dec01

Jun02

Dec02

Jun03

Dec03

Jun04

price load

0 0.5 1

1.5 2

2.5 3

3.5 4

4.5

Dec98

Jun99

Dec99

Jun00

Dec00

Jun01

Dec01

Jun02

Dec02

Jun03

Dec03

Jun04

price load

NSW VIC

QLD SA

Other markets: dollar/yen or dollar/euro 1020%; LIBOR rate 1020%; SP500 2030%; NASDAQ 3050%; natural gas 50100%; electricity 100500%. A. Eydeland and K. Wolyniec, Energy and Power Risk Management, 2003

12

Monthly average load and timeweighted and volumeweighted average prices from December 1998 to September 2004 (left axis for load, right for prices)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Dec98

Jun99

Dec99

Jun00

Dec00

Jun01

Dec01

Jun02

Dec02

Jun03

Dec03

Jun04 0

20

40

60

80

100

load price (t) price (v)

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Dec98

Jun99

Dec99

Jun00

Dec00

Jun01

Dec01

Jun02

Dec02

Jun03

Dec03

Jun04 0

20 40 60 80 100 120 140


0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Dec98

Jun99

Dec99

Jun00

Dec00

Jun01

Dec01

Jun02

Dec02

Jun03

Dec03

Jun04 0

20 40 60 80 100 120 140


0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Dec98

Jun99

Dec99

Jun00

Dec00

Jun01

Dec01

Jun02

Dec02

Jun03

Dec03

Jun04 0

100

200

300

400

500


NSW VIC

QLD SA

13

Price spikes (RRP > $1000/MWh), regional/NEMwide available capacities and demand, from April 12, 1999 to August 31, 2004

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109121133 0

2000 4000 6000 8000

10000

NSW demand NSW available capacity NSW generation NSW price

16000

21000

26000

31000

36000

1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133

NEM demand NEM available capacity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

1 23 45 67 89 111133155177199221243265 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

NEM demand NEM available capacity QLD price NSW price

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101111121 0

2000

4000

6000

8000

VIC demand VIC avail capacity VIC price SA price

Do the price spikes in NEM move the same way? Are the price spikes caused by supply shortage in its own region or other regions?

14

Part 3. Observations on Generators’ strategies

15

Unit commitment decision and seasonal load patterns for the 18:00—18:30 trading intervals

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1 128 255 382 509 636 763 890 1017 1144 1271

available capacity demand

6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000

1 130 259 388 517 646 775 904 1033 1162

NSW demand NSW available capacity NSW generation

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1 130 259 388 517 646 775 904 1033 1162

QLD demand QLD generation QLD available capacity

5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500

1 127 253 379 505 631 757 883 1009 1135 1261

VIC demand VIC available capacity VIC generation

NEMwide

16

Using price or quantity as a strategic variable or both, May 2002 to May 2003

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

inactive moderately active active

number of units (in 100) market share

80 number the 40 ≤ ≤ 40 number the

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

inactive moderately active active

number of units (in 100) market share

80 number the 40 ≤ ≤ 40 number the

Statistics of the number of different price and quantity bands generators used in a 390 day period.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

u1(660) u2(660) u3(500) u4(660) u5(660) g1(200) h1(150) h2(616) h3(1500) h4(1500) u6(280) h5(60)

numbe

r of d

ifferen

t price

/qua

ntity

vec

tors

#price vectors #quantity vectors at offPeak (4:30) #quantity vectors at peak (18:00)

Source: Hu, Grozev and Batten (2003), Energy Policy

Cournot or Bertrand players?

17

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

1.2 1.4

large units units excl. larges

small coal units

coal hydro gas

percentage per unit (in 1000) market share

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

1 4 7 10

13

16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37

40

43

46

Settlement intervals

Num

bers of rebids

all rebids

economic rebids

Rebidding strategies: who used for what?


18

Market concentration in four NEM regions

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

12

16

20

26

30

35

39

43

47

51

76

Registration file version number

HHI

NSW QLD VIC SA

HHI = sum of the square of each generation company’s capacity share in its region

The HerfindahlHirschman Index (HHI) for four NEM regions

19

Calculated according to MO_RG888v088 List of Generators & Sched Loads.xls

Details of capacity shares of generators in NSW and VIC regions

20

0.25

0.45

0.65

0.85

1.05

1.25

1.45

1May02

1Jun02

1Jul02

1Aug02

1Sep02

1Oct02

1Nov02

1Dec02

1Jan03

1Fe

b03

1Mar03

1Apr03

1May03

Capacity sufficiency Generation sufficiency Capacity factors

0.25

0.45

0.65

0.85

1.05

1.25

1.45

1May02

1Jun02

1Jul02

1Aug02

1Sep02

1Oct02

1Nov02

1Dec02

1Jan03

1Fe

b03

1Mar03

1Apr03

1May03


0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1May02

1Jun02

1Jul02

1Aug02

1Sep02

1Oct02

1Nov02

1Dec02

1Jan03

1Feb03

1Mar03

1Apr03

1May03


0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1May02

1Jun02

1Jul02

1Aug02

1Sep02

1Oct02

1Nov02

1Dec02

1Jan03

1Feb03

1Mar03

1Apr03

1May03


capacity installed or available generation dispatched factor capacity =

demand regional generation regional y sufficienc generation =

capacity available regional demand regional y sufficienc capacity =

Capacity factors, et al for NSW and VIC regions from May 2002 to May 2003


21

Four Victorian baseload generators’ capacity offer at $40/MWh for the 18:00 trading intervals from April 12, 1999 to August 31, 2004

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

12/4/1999

15/8/1999

18/1/2000

22/5/2000

24/9/2000

27/1/2001

1/6/2001

3/11/2001

9/3/2002

14/7/2002

20/11/2002

30/3/2003

6/8/2003

12/12/2003

17/4/2004

21/8/2004

capacity offer available capacity region demand

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

12/4/1999

15/8/1999

18/1/2000

22/5/2000

24/9/2000

27/1/2001

1/6/2001

3/11/2001

9/3/2002

14/7/2002

20/11/2002

30/3/2003

6/8/2003

12/12/2003

17/4/2004

21/8/2004


0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

12/4/1999

15/8/1999

18/1/2000

22/5/2000

24/9/2000

27/1/2001

1/6/2001

3/11/2001

9/3/2002

14/7/2002

20/11/2002

30/3/2003

6/8/2003

12/12/2003

17/4/2004

21/8/2004


0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

12/4/1999

15/8/1999

18/1/2000

22/5/2000

24/9/2000

27/1/2001

1/6/2001

3/11/2001

9/3/2002

14/7/2002

20/11/2002

30/3/2003

6/8/2003

12/12/2003

17/4/2004

21/8/2004


Loy Yang 4X520MW Edison 2X500MW

Hazelwood 8X200MW Yallourn 2X350MW + 2X375MW + 32MW (gas)

22

2000

2500

3000

3500 4000

4500

12/4/1999

15/8/1999

18/1/2000

22/5/2000

24/9/2000

27/1/2001

1/6/2001

3/11/2001

9/3/2002

14/7/2002

20/11/2002

30/3/2003

6/8/2003

12/12/2003

17/4/2004

21/8/2004

capacity offer available capacity

1500

2000

2500

3000 3500

4000

12/4/1999

15/8/1999

18/1/2000

22/5/2000

24/9/2000

27/1/2001

1/6/2001

3/11/2001

9/3/2002

14/7/2002

20/11/2002

30/3/2003

6/8/2003

12/12/2003

17/4/2004

21/8/2004


500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

12/4/1999

15/8/1999

18/1/2000

22/5/2000

24/9/2000

27/1/2001

1/6/2001

3/11/2001

9/3/2002

14/7/2002

20/11/2002

30/3/2003

6/8/2003

12/12/2003

17/4/2004

21/8/2004


0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

12/4/1999

17/8/1999

22/1/2000

28/5/2000

2/10/2000

6/2/2001

13/6/2001

17/11/2001

25/3/2002

2/8/2002

10/12/2002

22/4/2003

30/8/2003

7/1/2004

16/5/2004

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

region demand region price (secondary axis)

Eraring 660MW X 4 + gas units + hydro units = 3676 MW Macquarie 660MW X4+ 500MW X 4+ 50 MW (gas) = 4690 MW

Delta 660MW X 4 + 500MW X 2+ 300MW X 2 = 4240 MW NSW region demand and prices at 18:00

Three NSW baseload generators’ capacity offer at $40/MWh for the 18:00 trading intervals from April 12, 1999 to August 31, 2004

23

Three generators’ dispatched generation and capacity factors in the NSW region for the 18:00 trading intervals from April 12, 1999 to August 31, 2004

1500

2000

2500

3000 3500

4000

12/4/1999

15/8/1999

18/1/2000

22/5/2000

24/9/2000

27/1/2001

1/6/2001

3/11/2001

9/3/2002

14/7/2002

20/11/2002

30/3/2003

6/8/2003

12/12/2003

17/4/2004

21/8/2004

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9 1

1.1

dispatched generaton capacity factor

500

1000

1500

2000 2500

3000

12/4/1999

15/8/1999

18/1/2000

22/5/2000

24/9/2000

27/1/2001

1/6/2001

3/11/2001

9/3/2002

14/7/2002

20/11/2002

30/3/2003

6/8/2003

12/12/2003

17/4/2004

21/8/2004

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1

dispatched generation capacity factor

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

12/4/1999

15/8/1999

18/1/2000

22/5/2000

24/9/2000

27/1/2001

1/6/2001

3/11/2001

9/3/2002

14/7/2002

20/11/2002

30/3/2003

6/8/2003

12/12/2003

17/4/2004

21/8/2004

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9 1

1.1


Macquarie 660MW X4+ 500MW X 4+ 50 MW (gas) = 4690 MW

Delta 660MW X 4 + 500MW X 2+ 300MW X 2 = 4240 MW

Eraring 660MW X 4 + gas units + hydro units = 3676 MW

Capacity factor =

generation available capacity

24

Four generators’ dispatched generation and capacity factors in the VIC region for the 18:00 trading intervals from April 12, 1999 to August 31, 2004

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200

12/4/1999

15/8/1999

18/1/2000

22/5/2000

24/9/2000

27/1/2001

1/6/2001

3/11/2001

9/3/2002

14/7/2002

20/11/2002

30/3/2003

6/8/2003

12/12/2003

17/4/2004

21/8/2004

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2

dispatched generation capacity factors

200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100

12/4/1999

15/8/1999

18/1/2000

22/5/2000

24/9/2000

27/1/2001

1/6/2001

3/11/2001

9/3/2002

14/7/2002

20/11/2002

30/3/2003

6/8/2003

12/12/2003

17/4/2004

21/8/2004

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2


700

900

1100

1300 1500

1700

12/4/1999

15/8/1999

18/1/2000

22/5/2000

24/9/2000

27/1/2001

1/6/2001

3/11/2001

9/3/2002

14/7/2002

20/11/2002

30/3/2003

6/8/2003

12/12/2003

17/4/2004

21/8/2004

0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 1.05 1.1


0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

12/4/1999

15/8/1999

18/1/2000

22/5/2000

24/9/2000

27/1/2001

1/6/2001

3/11/2001

9/3/2002

14/7/2002

20/11/2002

30/3/2003

6/8/2003

12/12/2003

17/4/2004

21/8/2004

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8



Hazelwood 8X200MW Yallourn 2X350MW + 2X375MW + 32MW (gas)

25

Capacity availability of three generators in the NSW region for the 18:00 trading intervals from April 12, 1999 to August 31, 2004

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

12/4/1999

11/8/1999

10/1/2000

10/5/2000

8/9/2000

7/1/2001

8/5/2001

6/10/2001

5/2/2002

6/6/2002

10/10/2002

13/2/2003

16/6/2003

20/10/2003

19/2/2004

22/6/2004

availability

0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95 1.05

12/4/1999

13/8/1999

14/1/2000

16/5/2000

16/9/2000

17/1/2001

20/5/2001

20/10/2001

21/2/2002

25/6/2002

30/10/2002

7/3/2003

11/7/2003

16/11/2003

20/3/2004

22/7/2004

availability

0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95 1.05

12/4/1999

13/8/1999

14/1/2000

16/5/2000

16/9/2000

17/1/2001

20/5/2001

20/10/2001

21/2/2002

25/6/2002

30/10/2002

7/3/2003

11/7/2003

16/11/2003

20/3/2004

22/7/2004

availability

Macquarie 660MW X4+ 500MW X 4+ 50 MW (gas) = 4690 MW

Delta 660MW X 4 + 500MW X 2+ 300MW X 2 = 4240 MW

Eraring 660MW X 4 + gas units + hydro units = 3676 MW

Only considering 3200 MW due to pumps

26

Capacity availability of three generators in the NSW region for the 18:00 trading intervals from April 12, 1999 to August 31, 2004

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

1.1

12/4/1999

11/8/1999

10/1/2000

10/5/2000

8/9/2000

7/1/2001

8/5/2001

6/10/2001

5/2/2002

6/6/2002

10/10/2002

13/2/2003

16/6/2003

20/10/2003

19/2/2004

22/6/2004

availability

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

1.2

12/4/1999

11/8/1999

10/1/2000

10/5/2000

8/9/2000

7/1/2001

8/5/2001

6/10/2001

5/2/2002

6/6/2002

10/10/2002

13/2/2003

16/6/2003

20/10/2003

19/2/2004

22/6/2004

availability

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

1.1

12/4/1999

11/8/1999

10/1/2000

10/5/2000

8/9/2000

7/1/2001

8/5/2001

6/10/2001

5/2/2002

6/6/2002

10/10/2002

13/2/2003

16/6/2003

20/10/2003

19/2/2004

22/6/2004

availability

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

1.2

12/4/1999

11/8/1999

10/1/2000

10/5/2000

8/9/2000

7/1/2001

8/5/2001

6/10/2001

5/2/2002

6/6/2002

10/10/2002

13/2/2003

16/6/2003

20/10/2003

19/2/2004

22/6/2004

availability


Hazelwood 8X200MW Yallourn 2X350MW + 2X375MW + 32MW (gas) [~1480MW)

27

29/6/2002 NSW

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1

18

35

52

69

86

103

120

137

154

171

188

205

222

239

256

273 10

100

1000

10000 load curve

price curve

Index of five minute dispatch intervals

MW

$/MWh

4:00am June 29 – 4:00am June 30

High demand, generator responses and price spikes (case study: June 2930, 2002 in NSW)

28

1

10

100

1000

10000

5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

22:00

9:30am

0:30am next day 4:30am

5604/6747.7 18.56

7546/9036 26.47

7551.44/8283.5 25.45

7988/9296.37 31.44

8118/10331.3 80.53

7622.84/10828 9874.78

17:45

14:30

NSW regional supply, demand, and prices for trade day 29/6/2002—30/6/2002 Dispatched gen/demand

regional price

Demand in MW

Offe

r pric

e in $/MWh

29

2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2200 2600 3000 3400 3800

4:30 18:00

9:30

14:30 22:00

0:30

2334.83 4:30

2964.67 0:30

3044.3 18:00

3100 14:30

3166.83 22:00

3252 9:30

Total base load capacity 4640 MW (black coal) and peakload capacity 50MW (fuel oil)

Dispatch offers from Macquarie Generation for 2930/6/2002 (no rebids made by this company in this period)

MW $/MWh

dispatch generation settlement time

30

Rebidding

250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

989.1 3.86 17.8 26.18 38.23 51.43 103 1860 7794 9846 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

989.1 3.86 17.8 26.18 38.23 51.43 103 1860 7794 9846

250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

989.1 3.86 17.8 26.18 38.23 51.43 103 1860 7794 9846 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

989.1 3.86 17.8 26.18 38.23 51.43 103 1860 7794 9846

Blue for daily bid, red for rebid (VP 5)

8:00 29/6/2002 11:30 29/6/2002

16:00 29/6/2002 18:00 29/6/2002

31

Two baseload units’ dispatch offers in June 2004 for 04:30am and 18:00pm from two NSW generators

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

950

10.25

22.89

36

62

82

92 136

262 4700 8800 9126

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

952.3

14.44

14.74

17.69

24.57

37.34

49.13

98.26

294.78

982.6

8843.4

9757.22

300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

950

10.25

22.89

36

62

82

92 136

262 4700

8800

9126

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

952.3

14.44

14.74

17.69

24.57

37.34

49.13

98.26

294.78

982.6

8843.4

9757.22

BW0104:30

BW0118:00

ER0104:30

ER0118:00

32

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 $/MWh

MW

19/1/2004 20/1/2004

Demand 8742.94 MW, price $27.68/MWh

Demand 8707.98 MW, price $17/MWh

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 $/MWh

MW

19/1/2004 20/1/2004

Demand 8742.94 MW, price $27.68/MWh

Demand 8707.98 MW, price $17/MWh

Economic capacity withholding strategy

Comparison of supply stacks in January 19 and January 20 in 2004 in the NSW region and price outcomes

33

Capacity withholding (VIC event on 22/1/2001) (event: summer day, from 11:30 to 17:00, reduction of capacity)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 0

10

20

30

40

50

60 Demand 2000

Demand 1999

price 2000 price 1999

$/MWh

Victorian demand and price from 0:00 21/1 to 0:00 24/1

Loy Yang’s generation and revenue from 4:30am 22/1/2001 to 4:00 23/1/2001

$

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Victorian demand and prices from 4:30am 22/1/2001 to 4:00 23/1/2001(price cap at $5000/MWh)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0

10

20

30

VIC LoyYang

$million

22/2/2001

normally

Comparison of revenue of Vic generators and Loy Yang

34

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 972

7.99

10.9

10.9

25.4

33.9

44.5

58.1

101

598

4810

4838

11:30am

17:00

Capacity re

duction

Dispatch offers by Loy Yang for 11:3017:00 on 22/1/2002

35

How often is economic capacity withholding strategy used and how successful is it? comparing Macquarie’s offers for the same trading interval and those one week before

120 65 Revenue up and demand up

173 184 136 120 Revenue up 195 224 159 153 Price up 301 377 239 245 Generation down

352 399 305 290 Capacity offer reduction

∆C ≈ 0 ∆C

36

Conclusions

§ Impacts of market structures and rules on market participants

§ Market price signals § Risk management § Is the NEM one single market or just a mix of regional markets?

37

Thank you very much for your attention

Part 1. Briefs of the NEM · 2013. 7. 30. · 3 Market nodes and inter regional links and their...

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