Mykhailo Minakov Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

November 2, 2012

ASSESSING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE

2012

ASSESSING ALL FOUR PHASES OF ELECTIONS

•  definition of the electoral rules •  pre-election campaign •  the vote •  translation of votes into seats

DEFINITION OF THE ELECTORAL RULES •  new electoral Law (November 2011) reinstated a mixed electoral

system •  electoral Law novelties:

•  higher party threshold – 5% •  only parties to compete, not blocks of parties •  extended rights of domestic nonpartisan observers

•  additional Law on elections (July 2, 2012) •  video cameras in all voting chambers •  Internet transmission of voting process

DEFINITION OF THE ELECTORAL DISTRICTS

PRE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN •  party competition

•  registration of candidates on party lists at the Central Election Commission has been rather smooth

•  restricted access to media for opposition parties

•  majoritarian campaigns •  misuse of administrative resources is widespread

•  direct buy of votes

•  composition of electoral commissions

•  final outcome of lottery did not ensure a balanced DEC composition

PRE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN

THE VOTE DAY •  smooth voting around the country •  developed registry of voters •  ineffective procedure for correction of the voters’ registry in case

of error •  six exit-polls with more or less equal results •  overall positive assessment of the voting day

THE VOTE DAY : EXIT POLLS

THE VOTE DAY : VOTER TURNOUT

2012 – 57,98% 2007 – 57,94%   2006 – 58,97%   2002 – 65,22%

PROPORTIONAL ELECTIONS RESULTS

PROPORTIONAL ELECTIONS RESULTS

PROPORTIONAL ELECTIONS RESULTS

•  5 parties to seat in the Parliament •  approx. 6% of votes were given to parties under threshold •  first time ever – relative majority of the ruling party •  two parties with articulate totalitarian ideologies •  United Opposition visibly distantiated from democratic values •  no champions of democracy

MAJORITARIAN ELECTIONS RESULTS

MAJORITARIAN ELECTIONS RESULTS

•  most of manipulations reported in connection with the majoritarian elections

•  outcome in favor of financial groups •  doubtful representation of local constituencies

FOUR-DAYS LONG COUNTING NIGHT

TRANSLATION OF VOTES INTO SEATS •  non-transparent counting •  slow counting in several districts in comparison with other

districts •  quality of counting process made the whole outcome of elections

questionable

TRANSLATION OF VOTES INTO SEATS