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Tourism Development in Small Islands across the World
Author(s): Jerome L. McElroySource: Geografiska Annaler. Series B, Human Geography, Vol. 85, No. 4, Special Issue: Nature-Society Interactions on Islands (2003), pp. 231-242Published by: Blackwell Publishing on behalf of the Swedish Society for Anthropology and GeographyStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3554423 .
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TOURISM DEVELOPMENT
IN
SMALL ISLANDS
ACROSS
THE
WORLD1
by
Jerome
L.
McElroy
McElroy,
.
L.,
2003: Tourism
Development
n Small Islands
Across he
World',
Geogr.
Ann.,
85 B
(4):
231-242.
ABSTRACT. his
study
develops
heTourism
enetrationndex
and
applies
t to 51 islands.The results onfirm
he most
pene-
trated
omprise
Caribbean,
Mediterranean
ndNorthern acific
islands
ypified
by
large
esorts,
rowding,
hort
tays
and here-
placement
f
man-made ttractionsor
lost
amenities.
The least
penetratedslands omprisemainlyPacificand ndianOceandes-
tinations
haracterized
y
small
acilities,
ong stays,
and imited
infrastructure.he
intermediate
slands
primarily
all into two
groups:
Caribbeanslands
advancing
o
the
high-density
tage,
and other
destinations
xperiencing apid
growth
and resource
conflicts.The
study
concludeswith
planning
mplications
nd
suggestions
or further esearch.
Key
words:
tourism
development,
enetration
ndex, islands,
planning,
world.
Introduction
The postwar historyof small islands has been
marked
y
two favorable
development
actors: he
march
of
decolonization
nd the
global
spread
of
internationalourism.
n the
first
case,
since
1960
about
30
tropical/temperate
slandsacross
he
five
major
oceanic basins have become
politically
n-
dependent McElroy
and
Mahoney,
2000).
Other
island erritories ave achieved
ignificantly reat-
er
internal
self-government
and
have used
this
new-found
autonomy
the so called
resource
f
jurisdiction
to
createtax
havens
and
diversify
intoothernontraditionalctivities uchas offshore
finance
and
ship registry
Baldacchino
nd
Milne,
2000).
In the second
case,
the
remarkableransfor-
mationof
tourism
nto
the
world's
argest ndustry
-
accounting
or about
one
tenth
of
global
GDP,
employment
nd
capital
ormation
WTTC,2001)
-
has coincidedwith the
restructuring
f small
s-
land
economies
away
rom
raditional
xports
uch
as
sugar
and
copra
owardsmass
ourism ndrelat-
ed construction.
The
results
have transformed
n-
sular
andscapes
cross
the
Caribbean,
Mediterra-
nean and North
Pacific,
and
created he so-called
Pleasure
Periphery
f North
America,
Europe
and
Japan espectively
Turner
nd
Ash,
1976).
The
problem
However,
muchof this
growth
has
been
overlyrap-
id,
unplanned
nd ntrusive ndhas
damaged
nsu-
lar
ecosystems
Briguglio
et
al,
1996).
In
the Car-
ibbean,
ourism
xpansion
as
directly
r
ndirectly
caused
deforestation nderosionof
upland
orests
for condominium evelopmentsandroad-works,
as
well as beach
loss,
lagoon pollution
and reef
damage
rom
sand
mining,
dredging
nd boat an-
choring
(McElroy
and de
Albuquerque,
1998).
Nearly
30%of the reefs areat
high
riskdue to run-
off
and
discharges
f
untreated
municipal
ndhotel
waste,
and
pollution
from
pleasure
yachts
and
cruise
ships Bryant
t
al.,
1998).
Partly
s a
result,
since 1985
fish
catches
areoff
nearly
50
percent
n
gross tonnage
UNEP, 1999b).
In
the
Mediterranean,
arge-scale
oastal
hotel/
marina nd nfrastructureonstruction as filled in
salt
ponds, disfigured
shorelines,
and
polluted
nearshorewaterswith
sewage
(Pearce,1989).
In
highlydeveloped
slandssuchas the
Balearicsand
Malta,
ourismhas been associatedwith the
rapid
decline
of
traditional
ursuits
and
renewable
re-
source
uses,
theriseof
realty
nflation
Beller
et
al.,
1990),
and
paralyzing
ummer
rowding
ndother
socioculturalntrusions hat threaten nsular
ife-
styles
and
dentity
Lanfant
t
al.,
1995).
In
deve-
loping
Indian
Ocean
slands,
he situation s simi-
lar.Tourism longwithunplanned rbanizations
associated
with
sand
mining,mangrove
estruction
andcoastal
pollution.
Mauritius
nd he
Seychelles
areranked econdand hird
n
theworld n terms
of
endangered
ative
plant species
(UNEP, 1999a),
and ome
beach-based esorts reunder hreat rom
sea-levelrise.
The
Pacific,
n
transition
rom
subsistence
o
a
cash
economy,
is
undergoing
ubstantial hreats
from
commercial
griculture
nd
fishing, ogging
and
coastal ourist
development.
n
popular
esort
areas
delicate
mangroves
have been
harvested or
construction
material,
and reefs scarred
by
tram-
pling
and
collecting
by
tourists
(Lobban
and
Schefter,
1997).
Development
on
Guamhas
been
Geografiska
Annaler
?
85
B
(2003)
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231
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JEROME .
MCELROY
compared
o suburban os
Angeles,
and
even
the
Galapagos
as
allegedly
beenoverrun
y
excessive
visitation
Lindberg
nd
Hawkins,
1996).
As a re-
sult of these
forces of
modernization,
he
region
boasts
he
largest
number f birdextinctions
n
the
world,
and seventimes more
endangered pecies
than
he
Caribbean
UNEP, 1999a).
Since tourism's
bioculturalbase
is
in
decline
across
he
island
world,
and
because
of the contin-
ued
pressures
rom ncreased
lobalization
xpect-
ed for
the future
UNEP, 2002),
researchers ave
called
or
greener,
ower
density
ourism
tyles
and
have
begun
o
explore
he causesof this
policy
fail-
ure.
A
variety
of structural nd nstitutionalactors
have been
suggested McElroy,
2002):
four stand
out.
First,
here
s
strongpressure
n
policy-makers
to createlabor-intensive pportunitiesn insular
economicsbuffeted
by
(1)
the oss of traditional
g-
ricultural
sugar,
opra)preferences
ue
to
the for-
mation
of
regional
rading
blocks
(EU, NAFTA),
and
(2)
by
the
fall-off
in
aid
stemming
rom is-
lands'
declining
geopolitical
significance
in
the
post-cold
war
era
(Commonwealth
Secretariat,
1997).
Second,
the scale
discrepancy
between
large,
heavily
capitalized,
high-volume
interna-
tional travel
interests
air
and cruise
lines,
hotel
chains,
tour
operators)
nd
small,
fragile,
insular
ecosystemsproducean inherent ropensityor en-
vironmental
overrun,
and
tourism's on-site
con-
sumption
character
s conducive to sociocultural
disruption.
Third,
over time
the cumulative
m-
pacts
of
mass
tourism'suneven
dynamics
n small
islands often
catch decision-makers
unprepared.
While visible
economic
benefits accrue
linearly
(e.g.
obs,
foreign
xchange),
osts are
often
hidden
until
dangerous
hresholds
re crossed
beach
ero-
sion,
fish
kills,
traffic
congestion).
Finally,despite
its
pervasiveness,
here s no
standard
measure
of
tourism'soverall mpact oprovidepolicy-makers
with
an
early
warning
ignal
for
broadly
assessing
potentially
non-sustainable evels
of
visitation
(U.S.
Congress,
1992).
Literature
Carryingcapacity
has been
a
policy
concern
in
small slands
pursuing
mass ourism
trategy
ar-
ticularly
since
the
appearance
f Butler's
(1980)
destination
ifecycle
model.
This
theory
mphasiz-
es
the
dynamic,
market-drivenhrust f
tourism
de-
velopment
and
argues
hat successfuldestinations
pass
through
a
regular equence
of
growth
stages
that
parallel
he
S-shaped
ogistic
curve.
Progress
along
the
development
continuum
nvolves
in-
creasing industry
institutionalization,
facility
scale,
visitor
saturation nd
cumulative
cological
impact
Butler,
1991;
Dannand
Cohen,
1991).
But-
ler's
six
stages
include
emergence,
nvolvement,
growth,
consolidation,
maturity
nd/or
stagnation
followed
by
declineor
rejuvenation.
he
concept
s
analogous
o the
product
ifecycle
in
marketing
it-
erature
whereby
a new
product
is
launched,
achieves
acceptance
nd
growth
until
competitors
gain
market
hare,
and nnovation r
repositioning
is
necessary
o stave off sales and
profit
declines
(Heywood,
1986).
Although
he model has been
applied
o over a
dozen
resort
areas,
hese
case studies
ack
stand-
ardized
approaches,
niformmeasuresand
rigor-
ous quantificationGetz, 1992).As a result,con-
ceptual
and
empirical
ifficulties
emain,
ncluding
problems
of
empiricallydefining
he
stages,ques-
tions about
he
nevitability
f
the
progression,
nd
complications
nvolving
multiple products
with
multiplecycles
in
a
given
destination
Agarwal,
1994).
Despite
these
limitations,
a numberof au-
thorscontinue
o view the
ifecycle
model
as a use-
ful,
descriptive
nd
analytic
ramework
or under-
standing
he
general
processes
and
patterns
f tour-
ist
development
Hovinen,2002),
not
only
for in-
dividualdestinationsbut also at the more macro
level as a
regional
model of tourist
evolution.For
example,
Holder
(1988)
loosely
invokedthe
life-
cycle
-
his
so-called self-destruct
heory
of tour-
ism
to
broadly
haracterize
he
postwar
growth
of masstourism
n
popular
Caribbean
estinations.
Similarly,
Minerbi
(1988)
and
Choy
(1992)
sketched tourism's
development
stages
across a
number f
Pacific slands.
In the
same
vein,
morerecentwork
has
attempt-
ed
to
(1)
reduce
he number f
lifecycle
stages
to
moreempirically efinableevels,and 2)todevel-
op
more
comprehensive
measures
of overall
our-
ism
impact.
In the first
case,
de
Albuquerque
nd
McElroy
(1992)
developed
an abbreviated
hree-
stage
version
of Butler'smodel for the
Caribbean.
By
descriptively
nterpreting
ver a dozen
(mainly
economic)
indicators,
they
clustered about 23
small slands
nto
hree
evels
of
increasing
ourism
penetration:
ow-density emerging
destinations,
growing
ntermediate
slandsandmature
igh-den-
sity
resortareas.
Follow-up
tudies
McElroy
t
al.
1993;
McElroy
and
de
Albuquerque,
1994),
in-
cluding
a numberof Pacificislands,suffered he
same
limitations.To overcome these
shortcom-
ings,
in
the
second
case,
McElroy
and
de Albu-
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TOURISM EVELOPMENT
NSMALL SLANDSACROSSTHE
WORLD
querque
1998)
constructed
TourismPenetration
Index
TPI)
and
uccessfully
pplied
tto the
small-
islandCaribbean. his instrumentmeasures
more
comprehensively
he cumulative
cale
and
mpact
Butler nvisioned or
the
ifecycle
process,
lusters
destinationsmore
systematically
nto discretede-
velopment tages,
and
provides
a more balanced
imprint
f
tourism n
island
economy,society
and
environment.
Most
recent
applications
have
ex-
tended
he
model to othersmall
slandsacross
he
world
(McElroy
nd
Olazarri,
997:
McElroy
and
de
Albuquerque,
999;
McElroy,
2002).
Scope
The
present
tudy
does four
things.
First,
t
devel-
ops the TPIand discusses ts strengths ndweak-
nesses.
Second,
it
applies
the model to
51
small
(about
one million
population
or
less)
islands
across he
world
and
nterprets
he resultsaccord-
ing
to the
scaleddown
three-stage
ersionof But-
ler's
lifecycle
model.
Third,
t
emphasizes
he ob-
vious
planning challenges
appropriate
or
each
stage
of
tourist
development.
Finally,
t assesses
the
general
usefulness
of
the
TPI
as
a
comprehen-
sive
measureof
overall ourism
mpact
as well as
its functionas
an
early
warning
ignal,
particularly
for those destinationsexperiencingand/or ap-
proachinghigh-density
development
and
poten-
tially
damaging
evels
of
visitation.
Methodology
Similar o
Briguglio's
1995)
small-island
ulner-
ability
ndex,
hree
major
riteria
overned
he
con-
structionof
the
Tourism
Penetration ndex. The
first was that t
shouldbe
simple
o formulate
nd
interpret
with
rising
TPI
scores
ndicating
ncreas-
ing
tourism
penetration.
The
secondwas that it
should
be
comprehensive
nough
o
includeall
ma-
jor
dimensionsof
tourism
mpact.
The
third
was
that
t
shouldallow wide
applicabilityhrough
he
use of
standard,
eadily
accessible
data.To
achieve
these
purposes,
he TPI
was
developed
rom
hree
separate
indicators which
measure
economic,
sociocultural
nd
environmental
enetration.
Variable
selection
The TPI was
constructed
n
three
steps.
First,
the
variableswereselected o measureourismdevel-
opment
across the three
mpact
dimensions.
Sec-
ond,
standardized
ndices
basedon
these variables
were
calculated.
Third,
TPIscores
werecalculated
as the
unweighted verage
f the
hree
tandardized
impact
ndices.
In the case of
variable
selection,
given
the
widespread
unavailability
f
tourism's
contribution
o
GDP
in
many
destinations,
isitor
spending
per
capita
per
resident
population)
was
selected
as a measure f
overalleconomic
mpact
becauseof its standard
sage
as wellas its
correla-
tion with
othermeasures
of tourism
development
(Liu
and
Jenkins,
1996).
The most
commonmeasure
of
tourism's ocio-
cultural
mpact
s the ratioof visitors
o the
local
population.
A more
rigorous
ndicators the
Tour-
ism
Penetration
atio,
.e.
the
number f
stay-over
visitors imes he
average
ength
of
stay
divided
by
the
population
imes 365
(CTO,1993).
This
study
useda similarmeasure hat includesone-dayex-
cursionists nd cruise
visitors,
and
may
be
called
the
averagedaily
visitor ensus
or
densityper
1000
population.
t
is
calculated s:
the number
f
stay-
over tourists
imes
the
average
ength
of
stay
plus
excursionists
ivided
by
the host
population
imes
365.The
resulting
atio
s
multipliedby
1
000
to
yield
the
averagedaily
visitor
censusor
densityper
1000
population.
A
figure
of
100,
for
example,
suggests
hat hereare
100
daily
visitors
per
1
000
population
ndicating
hat ourist
activity
esults n
a 10percentncreasenthedaily slandpopulation,
throughout
he
year.
This
indicatorwas
chosen as
an
aggregative,
ndirect
proxy
measureof
hose-
guest
irritation
nd/or
rowding
and/or
ocio-cul-
tural
pressure.
The
censusmeasure
was
selected
n
preference
to
the so-called
Tourism
Density
Ratio
(visitors
times
average tay
divided
by
landarea
imes
365)
-
to which
t
correlates
losely
-
because he
former
focuses
exclusively
on
social as
opposed
o envi-
ronmental
mpacts.
To
measure
environmental
penetration,heuse of moredirectmeasures uch
as
per
visitor
electricor
water
consumption
r an-
nual
rate
of
arable and
loss or
deforestationwas
precluded
y
the
unavailability
f the
data.
nstead,
the
numberof
hotel rooms
per
square
kilometer
was
chosen to
measure
ourism's
mpact
on
the
physical
environment.
Normally,
progression
through
Butler's
tages
of
tourism
development
n-
volves
enlargement
f
the hotel
plant,
ncreasing
facility
scale,
and
expansion
of
the associated
air,
sea
(ports
and
marinas)
nd land
(road
networks)
infrastructure.
otelrooms
per
km2
was
selectedas
a
commonly
accessibleindirect
proxy
for tour-
ism's
imprint
n
the
insular
andscape
nd
fragile
ecology.
Geografiska
Annaler
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JEROME . MCELROY
The
strength
f
these
ndicators,
s constitutedn
the
TPI,
is
that
they
represent
n
integrated
om-
prehensive
measureof overall tourism
mpact
n
small-island ountries.
However,
becauseof their
highly aggregative
ature,
hey
remain udimenta-
ry
first
approximations
nd
require
ome
interpre-
tive caveats.
First,
hey
do
not
measure
he
spatial
concentration f
tourism,
a
particularlymportant
dimensionfor islands
where sun-lust
activity
is
concentrated
long
the
seashore. Likewise
they
take
no
account
of
dualistic
development
n
single-
islandcountries
nd
mask ndividual slanddiffer-
ences
in
archipelagic
tates.
Second,
the
indices
also mask
the
seasonability
so
characteristic
f
tourism
(e.g. high
winter visitor
densities
in the
Caribbean nd intense
summer
visitation
in
the
Mediterranean). hird,as single-year,cross-sec-
tional
indicators,
none of
these variables
aptures
an island's
ong-term xperience
with and
adapta-
tionto
tourism
development. inally,
as land-based
indicators
hey may
not
accurately
measure
ourist
activity
n
certaindestinationshat
cater
principally
to
sea-based
yachting
ourism.
Index construction
In order o
develop
heTPI
scores,
he three
mpact
indicatorswere standardizedccordingo thefol-
lowing
formula:
TPIij
=
(Xij
-
Min
Xi)
(Max
Xi
-
Min
Xi)
Where
TPIij
tands
or
the
degree
of tourism
pene-
tration or the
th
islandwith
respect
o the ith vari-
able,
i
taking
on the
value
of
1
to 3 since
there
are
three
variables,
ndj taking
on
the
values
of
1
to 51
for the 51 islands
in
the
sample
(see
below).
Xij
stands or the valueof the ith variableor the this-
land.Max
Xi andMin Xi
stand
or maximum
and
minimum
values of
the ith variable
or all islands
in the
sample.
f an
islandhas
a
value
of
Xij equal
to themaximum
minimum),
ts standardized
core
would
be
1
(zero).
The
overall
TPI
scores or each
slandwerethen
estimated
by taking
an
unweighted
verage
of
the
threestandardizedndices
according
o
the
formu-
la:
TPIj = YTPIij, i = 1,2,3;j = 1,2...51
Since
different
weights
could not be
established
priori
rom
eitherthe
theory
or the
literature,
his
equivalent
mpact
formulation
ssumed
hat each
type
of
impact
(economic,
social,
environmental)
was as
important
s the other
wo
in
contributing
o
overall ourism
penetration.
To
operationalize
he
index,
a
sample
was se-
lected of
51
small islands of
approximately
ne
million
population
r less for
which
complete
data
were
available. This data
constraintexcluded
a
number f
small
non-sovereign
slandssuch as the
Azores,
Balearics,Faroes,Madeira,
Mayotte,
Wal-
lis andFutuna
nd
others.
To
ensure
uniformity,
ll
data
were
taken
romstandardources: he tourism
data
from the
Compendium
of
Tourism
Statistics
(WTO,2001),
andthe
population
ndarea
igures
fromTheWorldFactbookCIA,2001).Theresult-
ing sample
ncludes23 islands
n
the
Caribbean,
6
in
the
Pacific,
five
in the
Indian
Ocean,
our n
the
Atlantic,
wo in
the Mediterranean
Malta
and
Cy-
prus)
and
Bahrain n the Persian
Gulf. Threehave
slightly
more
han
one
million nhabitants
Hawaii,
Mauritiusand
Trinidad),
and all are less than
20000
Km2
in
area
apart
from
Iceland and the
Solomons.
Results
Table1
presents
hebasic
data,
andTable
2
records
the three
mpact
variables,
heir
standardizedndi-
ces andtheircombined
TPI
scores andthe overall
destination
ankings.Althoughquite aggregative
and
rudimentary,
he TPI scores
yield
results hat
broadly
onfirm
what s
expected.
The 51 islands
are
oosely
ranked rommost
(St. Maarten)
o least
developed
Comoros).
The
more
raditional,
evel-
oped,
and
accessible
Caribbean,
Mediterranean
andNorthern acific
destinations
opulate
he
top
half of therankingswhile themoreremoteandre-
cently emerging
South Pacific and Indian
Ocean
destinations ominate he
bottomhalf. The
sample
divides
approximately
ntothreedistinct
groupings
based
on
discrete evels of
development
s revealed
by
the
TPI
and nformed
by
historicalobservation
anda
sense
of the
literature.
hey
are most devel-
oped,
ntermediate
nd east
developed,
and
corre-
spond
generally
o threeabbreviated
tages
of the
destination
ifecycle.
The most
developed
slands orma
subgroup
f
13
internationally
isible
highly developed
desti-
nationscharacterized
y averageper capita
visitor
spending
approaching
10
000 andan
average
dai-
ly
visitor
density
over 170
tourists
per
1 000 resi-
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Annaler
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TOURISM
EVELOPMENT
N
SMALL
SLANDS
ACROSSTHEWORLD
Table
1.
Selected
ourismndicators
or
small
slands,
1999a
Island
LandArea
Population
Tourist
Day
Stay
Rooms
Total
pending
(km2)
(000)
(000) (000)
(Nights)
(U.S. million)
Anguilla
91
12
47
60
8,5
1120
56
Antigua 440 67 232 357 7,0 3 185 291
Aruba
193
70 683 260b
9,3
7 783
782
Bahrain 620
645
1991
1
289
7,Ob
6
202
408
Bahamas
10070
298
1577
1982
5,4
14153
1503
Barbados
430
275
515 433
10,1
5761
677
Bermuda 50
64 354
193
6,2
3276 477b
Bonaire
311
12
61
20
8,3
1086
44
UK
Virgins
150
21 286
181
8,4
1626
300
Cape
Verde
4 030
405
67
-
7,0
1 800
23
Caymans
260
36
395 1035
6,5
4 318
450
Comoros
2 170 596
24
-
7,0
389
19
CookIsland
240
21 56
-
9,0
724
39
Curacao?
544
147 209
218
8,3
2696
201
Cyprus
9240
763
2434
220
11,0
34
122
1878
Dominica 750 71 74 202 11,2 857 49
Fiji
18
270
844
410
14
8,3d
5
777 275
Grenada 340
89
125
256
7,4
1
928
63
Guadaloupe
1706
431 561
379
5,8
8
260
375
Guam
541
158
1162
6
3,0e
10084
1908
Hawaii 16760
1212 6738
-
8,7
71480
11133
Iceland
103 000
278 263 18
4,3d
6 150
227
Kiribati
717
94 2 1
18,0
436 2
Maldives 300
311
430
-
8,7
7627
334
Malta 320
395
1 214 188
10,0
20445
675
Marshalls 181
71 5
-5,3e
300
4
Martinique
1060
415
564
340
13,0
6766
404
Mauritius
1
850
1190
578 22
5,7
8
255 545
Montserrat
100
8 7
-
10,0c
243
8
N. Caledonia 18575 205 100 47 16,0 2 398 125b
Niue
260 2
2
1
14,0e
84 2b
Marianas 477
75
498
4
3,6
4642 625b
Palau
458 19 55
-
6,0d
973
45b
Polynesia
3660
254
211 25
11,8
3396
389b
Reunion 2500
733
394
-
15,7
2527
270
Saba
13
2 24
24
7,0b
87
18b
St. Eustatius 21 2 25
-
7,0b
63
17b
St. Kitts
269
39 84
140
8,7
1762 70
St. Lucia 610 158 261
351
8,7
3065
311
St.
Maarten
41 36 445
616
5,0
3065
463
St. Vincent 340
116
68 155
10,6
1540
77
Samoa 2850
179 85
-
7,6c
710 42
Sao
Tome
b 1
001 165
5
2
7,0
259
111
Seychelles 455 80 128 6 10,5 2 346 25
Solomons
27
540
480 21
-
13,0
860
5
Tonga
718
104 31
13
17,0f
642
9
Trinidad 5 130
1170 348
39
10,b
3
971 201
Turks/Caicos 430 18
121
-
7,4
1
674 246
Tuvalu 26
11 1
-7,6
59
1
US
Virgins
349
122
485
1
478
4,4
4
849 940
Vanuatu 14
760
193 50 46
8,2
663
56
Sources:
Compendium of
Tourism
Statistics,
2001 edn
(WTO, 2001);
The World Factbook
(CIA,
2001).
Notes:a
Population
ata
generally
or 2001. Some
ourism ata
or
1998unless
otherwisendicated.
b
Author's stimate
c 1997
d 1996
e 1995
f
1994
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JEROME . MCELROY
Table 2.
Constructionof the Tourism
Penetration
ndex,
Destination Scores and
Rankings
Impact
Indices
b
Island
Spend/pop Density
Rooms
Spending
Density
Rooms
TPI
scores c
(US$)
1,000a
Km2
Most
tourism
developed
St. Maarten
12 861
UK
Virgins
14 286
Aruba
11171
Caymans
12 500
Bermuda 7
453
Saba 9 000
Turks/Caicos 13 667
St. Eustatius
8 500
Guam
12
706
Malta 1 709
Hawaii
9
186
US
Virgins
7
705
Marianas 8
333
Avg. 9 929
Intermediate ourism
developed
Anguilla
4
667
Bonaire
3 667
Bahamas 5 044
Antigua
4
343
Barbados
2 462
Maldives 1 074
Cyprus
2461
St. Kitts 1 795
Bahrain
633
Cook Island 1 857
St. Lucia
1
968
Palau
2
368
Seychelles
1 388
Martinique
967
Curacao 1 367
Grenada
708
Polynesia
1 532
Guadeloupe
870
Niue
1
000
Dominica 690
Montserrat
1 000
St. Vincent 664
Avg.
1
933
Least
tourism
developed
Mauritius 458
N.
Calcedonia
610
Reunion
368
Iceland 817
Tonga
87
Fiji
326
Samoa
235
Trinidad
172
Tuvalu
91
Vanuatu
290
Marshalls 56
Cape
Verde
57
Kiribati
21
Sao
Tome
30
Solomons 52
Comoros 32
Avg.
231
216
337
259
274
102
263
136
240
61
86
133
81
66
173
105
120
97
81
56
33
97
61
65
66
46
48
46
50
36
36
27
23
40
40
24
21
55
8
22
23
11
14
11
10
8
2
7
1
3
1
1
2
1
8
74,8
10,8
40,3
16,6
65,5
6,7
3,9
3,0
18,6
63,9
4,3
13,9
9,7
25,5
12,3
3,5
1,4
7,2
13,4
25,4
3,7
6,6
10,0
3,0
5,0
2,1
5,2
6,4
5,0
5,7
0,9
4,8
0,3
1,1
2,4
4,5
5,9
4,5
0,1
1,0
0,1
0,9
0,3
0,3
0,8
2,3
0,1
1,7
0,5
0,6
0,3
0,0
0,2
0,7
0,900
1,000
0,782
0,875
0,521
0,629
0,957
0,594
0,889
0,118
0,642
0,539
0,583
0,695
0,326
0,256
0,352
0,303
0,171
0,074
0,171
0,124
0,043
0,129
0,137
0,165
0,096
0,066
0,094
0,048
0,106
0,060
0,069
0,047
0,069
0,045
0,134
0,031
0,041
0,024
0,056
0,005
0,021
0,015
0,011
0,005
0,019
0,003
0,003
0,000
0,001
0,002
0,001
0,015
0,640
1,000
1,000
0,144
0,768 0,539
0,813
0,222
0,301 0,876
0,780 0,090
0,402
0,052
0,711 0,040
0,179 0,249
0,253
0,854
0,393 0,058
0,238
0,186
0,194
0,130
0,513 0,342
0,310
0,164
0,354 0,047
0,286 0,019
0,238
0,096
0,164 0,179
0,095 0,340
0,286
0,050
0,179 0,088
0,191
0,134
0,194 0,040
0,134
0,067
0,140 0,028
0,134 0,070
0,146 0,086
0,104
0,067
0,104
0,076
0,077 0,012
0,066
0,064
0,116
0,004
0,116 0,015
0,069
0,032
0,060 0,060
0,162 0,079
0,021 0,060
0,063
0,001
0,006
0,013
0,030 0,001
0,039
0,012
0,030 0,004
0,027 0,004
0,021 0,011
0,003 0,031
0,018
0,001
0,000
0,023
0,006
0,007
0,000 0,008
0,000 0,004
0,003
0,000
0,000
0,003
0,020 0,011
0,847
0,715
0,696
0,637
0,566
0,500
0,470
0,448
0,439
0,408
0,364
0,321
0,302
0,516
0,267
0,219
0,213
0,212
0,171
0,170
0,169
0,130
0,123
0,121
0,114
0,111
0,100
0,099
0,088
0,076
0,065
0,063
0,063
0,059
0,057
0,055
0,115
0,037
0,035
0,034
0,029
0,019
0,018
0,015
0,014
0,013
0,013
0,009
0,005
0,003
0,002
0,002
0,001
0,016
Sources:See Table
1
Notes:
a Calculatedas:
[(Tourists
*
Stay)
+
Day]/[(Population
*365)*1,000]
b
Calculatedas:
(IndicatorValue-Minimum)/(Maximum-Minimum).
c
Unweighted Average
of the three
impact
indices.
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TOURISM EVELOPMENT
N SMALL SLANDSACROSSTHEWORLD
dents.Tourists hus
represent
he
equivalent
f a
17
percent
ncrease
n
the
daily year-round
opula-
tion. Their nsular
andscapes
re crowdedon
av-
erage
with
nearly
25 hotel rooms
per
km2of area.
This
group
ncludesthree
clusters:
1)
five tradi-
tionalresort slandscomprisingBermuda,heBrit-
ish
(BVI)
and U.S.
(USVI)
Virgins,
Hawaii
and
Malta;
2)
six
more
recententrants
nto
the mass
tourismmarket
ncluding
Aruba,
he
Caymans,
t.
Maarten,
Turks/Caicos,
Guamand
Northern
Mar-
ianas;
and
(3)
two small
Dutch
Antilles,
Sabaand
St.
Eustatius,
nown or
their
dive
tourism.The at-
ter result
points
up
one limitationof the
TPI.
It
overstates
he
impact
n
thesetwo destinations
nd
the
BVI
largely
because he
high
visitordensities
(ranging
rom240 to 337
per
1
000
population)
ail
to capturehemarine-based atureof their ourist
activity.
On the
other
hand,
he
TPI
does
capture
the
heavily
built
character
over
60
rooms
per
km2)
of
Bermuda,
t.Maarten
nd
Malta.
n
addition,
he
relatively
ow
per capita
visitor
spending
n
Malta
($1,709)
maypartly
eflect he
deepdiscounting y
European
our
operators
ommon n
Mediterrane-
an resort
slands.
Many
of
these
most
developed
destinations
share
a
relativelyunique
profile.
According
o the
literature
McElroy
and de
Albuquerque,
992),
thesemature, ffluent reasadvancingo thetopof
the
resort
cycle
are
characterized
y
high
visitor
andhotel
room
densitiesbut
relatively
low visitor
androom
growth
ates.
Theirmarkets
by
and
arge
dominated
by
shorter
taying
visitors
(6.2
nights
average)
witha
strong
preference
or
hotels,
arge-
scale
(comfortable)
acilitiesand
man-made ttrac-
tions.
They
also
exhibit he
highest
evels of
hotel
occupancy, promotional
pending,
and
(for
the
Caribbean)
ruise
passenger
raffic.As
a
partial
n-
dicatorof their
ntegration
nto the
global
tourist
economy, hey
tend o
display
he
owest
degree
of
seasonality hrough
pecial
year-round
ackages
(honeymoon
weekends,
onventions,
arivals,
re-
gattas).
They
also tend
to exhibita
relatively
high
degree
of
man-made
attractions
casinos,
golf-
courses,
conventioneering).Many
of the
olderes-
tablished
estinations re
also
among
he most
fre-
quently
cited in
the
literatureor
tourism-induced
ecosystem
damage,
marine
pollution,
overcrowd-
ing,
host tensions and
declining
vacation
quality
(Beekhuis,
1981;Towle,
1985;
Beller
et
al.
1990;
Jenner
nd
Smith,
1993;
Briguglio
t
al.,
1996).
As
one specific example,the USVI's NationalPark
was
recentlyplaced
on
the
USA's ten
mostendan-
gered
list due
to
over
fishing,
silt
runoff
from
poorly designed
developments
on
land,
careless
snorkelers nd
scuba
divers,
boatanchor
dropping
on coralreefs and
seagrass
beds andboats
running
aground
n
shallowreefs
Larson,
003,
p.
1).
In
conjunction
with
abundant
atural
menities,
the successof thesematuredestinations as been
fostered
by
significant
ocational
advantages
nd
long-standingmetropolitan
ommercial
ies.
The
geographical
roximity
f theCaribbean
o
North
America,
of the Mediterranean
o
Europe,
and
the
Northern
Pacific to
Japan
has facilitated
ourism
growth
becauseof their
relatively
heap
access
to
the most
lucrative
rigin
marketsn the
world.
In-
ter-island
proximity
also
helps explain
the
rapid
diffusion
of
tourismacross he Caribbeanndthe
popularity
f
Guamand
Saipan
as
Japanese
week-
endgolfandhoneymoon estinations.Historically
many
of these
islandsalso functioned s nodes
in
center-periphery
rade,
and theselinks
nourished
theinflow
of
foreign
private
hotel investment
n-
couraged
by generous,
pro-growth
ax incentives.
In
addition,
raditional
olitical
ties fostered
the
aid-financed
ransport
nfrastructurehat orms
he
capital
base of
the
visitor
ndustry.
The
east
developed
slands
ontain16
primarily
Pacificand
Indian
Ocean slands
ocatedat the ow
end or
beginning
stage
of
the resort
cycle.
As
a
group, they average$231 in per capitavisitor
spending,
.e.
less
than3
percent
f
the most
devel-
oped
islands'
level.
Likewise,
they average
only
eight
visitors
per
1 000
population
and
approxi-
mately
one
room
per
km2
of landarea.
Withsome
exceptions
Marshalls,
uvalu),
hey
tendon aver-
age
to be
larger
n
areaand
population
han hema-
ture
destinations
and to
exhibit more
diversified
economies.
The
largest
slands
e.g.
New Caledo-
nia,
Fiji
and
the
Solomons)
possess
valuablere-
sources
-
nickel,
gold
and
silver
respectively
while
overhalfthe labor orce nVannatu ndIce-
land s
engaged
n
subsistence/small-scale
gricul-
tureand
fishing
respectively.
At the
bottom
of this
grouping
re
five low-in-
come remote
outposts
with minimum
ourismde-
velopment
hat
esemble
MIRAB
tates
heavily
de-
pendent
on
emigration,
emittances,
oreign
aid
and
public
employment
(Bertram
and
Watters,
1986).
They
include he
Solomons
and
Kiribati
n
the
Pacific,
Cape
Verde
and
Sao
Tome/Principe
along
the
West
African
coast,
and
Comoros n
the
Indian
Ocean.
At
the
top
end are
several
destina-
tionswitha
couple
ofdecadesof tourist
xperience
and
some
highly
developed
ourism
ones
masked
by
the
aggregative
TPI.
They
include
Mauritius,
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JEROME
. MCELROY
Reunion,
New
Caledonia,
Fiji
andIceland.
Forex-
ample,
Mauritius,
he world's
second
largest
ex-
porter
f woolen
knits,
boasts
he
largest
visitor
n-
dustry
n the Indian
Ocean;
and tourism
earnings
now rival the contribution
f traditional
ugar
ex-
ports
(Benhamou,
1993).
Finally,
he middle
rung
is
occupied
by
islands
advancing p
the
cycle.
Dur-
ing
the 1990s
Trinidad/Tobago
xperienced
ome
of
the
most
sustained
ncreases
n
stay-over
arriv-
als,
visitor
expenditure
nd hotel
room
growth
n
the Caribbean
CTO,
2001)
while Samoa
n
the
Pa-
cific
achieved nternational
ecognition
as
an
eco-
tourismdestination
or its natural
beauty
and
cul-
tural
uniqueness.
Although
t is
difficult
to
simply
classify
these
least
penetrated
slands
because
of
their
heteroge-
neity in size and overall level of development,
many
share haracteristics
ommon o
Butler's ar-
ly
tourism
tages.
These include
small-scale
acil-
ities and nfrastructure
some
ackjetports),
imited
visitor
growth,
and ess disturbed
ultures nd
eco-
logies
than heir
mature,
igh-density
ounterparts.
They
tend
to
spend
least on
promotion,
have
the
lowest
proportion
f
rooms
n
large
(100+)
hotels,
the
highest
ratio
of
regional
inter-island)
isitors,
andtheir
average
ength
of visitor
stay
s
the
long-
est
(ten
nights),
about
wo
weeks
n
five cases
(New
Caledonia,Kiribati,Reunion,the Solomonsand
Tonga).
They
also exhibit
greaterappeal
or
more
adventurous
ravelers
nd
niche
segments
han
or
the mass
market.
In
contrast
o the
'pleasureperiphery,'
he later
arrival nd
slower
progression
long
the resort
cy-
cle of these
Pacific,
ndian
ndAfrican
slandshave
derived
principally
rom their
remoteness.
This
isolation,
in combination
with
small-scale
facili-
ties,
has
hindered he
growth
of direct
air connec-
tions
with
metropolitan
rigin
markets
while
the
re-
sulting imitedpassengerraffichas further urbed
expansion
of hotelroom
capacity
Kissling,
1989).
Many
also
sharea
less extensive
colonial
and
com-
mercial
history
with
the West and
ow levels of
so-
cioeconomic
modernization.
ecause
of
the alter-
native
employment
afforded
by
their diversified
economies,
policy-makers
y
and
arge
have
been
less
aggressive
n
promoting
mass
tourism,
given
air access
and nfrastructure
onstraints,
nd
more
supportive
f selective
natureand
culture ourism
styles,
the
so-called
South
Pacific
Way
Yacou-
mis,
1989).
Finally,
n some cases
(Comoros,
Fiji),
recent
political
instability
has retarded
develop-
ment.
The ntermediate
estinations
epresent
he
arg-
est
and most
dynamic
group.
Their
average
TPI
scores
fall
cleanly
between
he
most
and east de-
veloped.
For
example,
averageper capita
visitor
spending
s
approximately
2000,
averagedaily
density
s 55 visitors
per
1000
population,
nd
av-
erage
rooms
per
km2 s six. Inmost
cases,
these is-
lands
are
characterized
y very
rapid
isitor
growth
and hotel and infrastructureonstruction. n
con-
trast o the most
developed
destinations,
hey
tend
to have
higher
rates
of
seasonality
nd
ower
evels
of
promotional
pending
andcruise
ship
traffic.
n
terms
of
lifecycle
progression,
hey
comprise
mix
of 22 islands
of
varying
size and
economic
struc-
turethat
display
ncreasing
ourism
cale,
ecosys-
tem
impact
and international
isibility.
All have
fairly
considerableourism
xperience
but
hey
are
marked yadiversity f tourism tyles.At thehigh
end are
traditionalmass marketdestinations
uch
as
Antigua,
he
Bahamas,
Bahrain,
Barbadosand
Cyprus.
n
fact,
the Bahamas
s more
accurately
mature
esort
because
of the
high-density
oncen-
tration
f
activity
n the
Freeport-Nassau
omplex,
but its intermediate
PI score results rom the ar-
chipelago's
large
land area and the low level of
tourist
development
across the outer
Family
s-
lands.
The ntermediateslso
ncludea
large
number
f
mid-sizesmall slandswith smaller ourism ectors
inside
more diversifiedeconomies:
n
the Carib-
bean,
Dominica,
Grenada,
St.
Lucia and
St.
Vin-
cent in transition
rom
preferential ependence
n
the
shrinking
EU bananamarket
plus
St.
Kitts/Ne-
vis
(sugar)
andCuracao
petroleum);
n the Indian
Ocean,
the
Seychelles
(tuna)
and the Maldives
(fishing);
and he
French verseas
dependencies
f
Polynesia
(farming)
and
Guadeloupe
and Marti-
nique, replacing
sugar
with
banana
exports
to
France.
n
recent
decades,
Dominica
St.
Vincent
to a lesserextent)hasbecomerecognized saneco-
tourism
destination,
marketing
ts
mountains,
or-
ests and ackof
development
s tourism ssets
rath-
er than
iabilities
Weaver,
2001,
p.
168).
Finally,
they
ncludea
handful f the east
populated
slands
in
the
sample:
Bonaireand
Palau,
ameddive
des-
tinations;
iny
Niue
andCook
Islands,
MIRAB-like
societies
heavily
dependent
on
remittances
and
subsidies
from New
Zealand;
and
Montserrat,
popular
NorthAmerican
etirement aven ince
the
1960s
whose TPI
ranking
has
declined
due
to
a
devastating
olcanic
eruption
n
1995 hat
rendered
overhalf the islanduninhabitable.
Anguilla
and
Antigua
at
the
top
of the
group
may
graduate
o most
developedhigh-density
tatus
n
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TOURISM
EVELOPMENTN SMALL SLANDS
ACROSSTHEWORLD
the
next
wo
decades.Recent
performance
uggests
a slow-down
hat
may
be a
harbinger
f
saturation
and/or
declining
popularity.
Between
1993 and
2000,
growth
was
fluctuating
nd
essentially
lat n
stay-overs
ndvisitor
expenditure
n
Anguilla,
and
in stay-oversand hotel roomsin
Antigua
WTO,
1999,2001).
However,
ver he same
period,many
other
ntermediate estinations
xperienced
obust
growth,
he
hallmark
f this
stage
n
the
lifecycle.
For
example,
stay-overs
nd
expenditure
pproxi-
mately
doubled
n the
Maldives
while
cruise raffic
nearly
ripled
n
St.
Luciaanddoubled n
Dominica
and
St.Vincent.
Stay-overs
ncreased
y
40
percent
in
both
Guadaloupe
nd
Martinique
nd
expendi-
turedoubled n
Polynesia.
n
addition,
apid
hotel
room
growth
markedhe environmentn
a number
of islands:over50 percent n St. Lucia,the Mal-
dives and
Palau,
and
between
30
and50
percent
n
Dominica,
Grenada,
Martinique,
t.
Lucia
and
the
Seychelles.
Many
destinations
undergoing
uch
noticeable
hanges
are
experiencing
esource-use
conflictsand
planning hallenges
s
and,
aborand
capitalmigrate
rom
raditional
ursuits
o
tourism.
Lifecycle
implications
In
broadbrush,
he
TPI
presents global
picture
of
tourismdevelopmentn small islandsacross the
world.
Becauseof its
aggregative
ature ndother
limitations,
ts
individual
ankings
may
be
less
im-
portant
han
the
clustering
of
destinations
t the
low,
intermediatend
high
end
of
the
ifecycle.
The
resultsare
usefulas a first
approximation
or
poli-
cy-makers
n
at
easttwo related
ways:
1)
as an
n-
direct
early
warning
ignal
particularly
or those
destinations
experiencing
or
approachinghigh-
density
and
potentially
nonsustainable
evelop-
ment,
and
(2),
with Butler's
ramework s
a back-
drop,
as
revealing
menu
of the
principal lanning
challenges
hat
urface
long
hethree
major tages
of the
cycle.
For
the
most
developed
mature
estinations,
or
example,
he
key
task s to sustain
vacation
quality.
This will
require
t
least
three
major
policy
direc-
tions:
(1)
restoring
environmental
damage
and
curbing
urther
ncursions nto
fragile
areas;
(2)
managing
isitor
densities ess
intrusivelyby
dis-
persal
hrough
ime
and
space;
and
(3)
expanding
length
of
stay
and visitor
quality
and
developing
smaller
scale
specialty
alternatives o
mass
tour-
ism:heritage, cientific,nature, etirement,
illage
andso
on.
Bermuda
epresents
uch
a
success sto-
ry.
The
stagnation
f Bermudan
ourism n
themid-
1980's
plus
citizen
complaints
f visitor
aturation
promptedwidespread ublic
discussionand
ong-
term
eassessment.Residents
avored
etaining
he
island's
upscale
mage
and
protecting
ts
unique
bi-
odiversity
and
heritage.
Policy-makers
esponded
with
ceilings
on bed
capacity,
vehiclesandcruise
ships
as well as
specific
controlson
construction
design
and
andscaping.
atural
menities nd
his-
toricalarchitecture
emainedntactwhile
tourism
stabilized nthe 1990s
somewhat elow
1980s ev-
els
(McElroy,
001).
Fiveelements
played
arole
n
this case: a tradition
f environmental
onserva-
tion,
widespread ommunity
wareness
nd
partic-
ipation,
trong
destination
dentity,
policy
commit-
ment
o the
long
term,
and
a
robust
offshore
inan-
cial sector
banking,
nsurance,
hip
registry)
o
ab-
sorbanytourismdeclines.
The
key
challenge facing many
intermediate
destinations
s
controlling
he
quantity
nd
quality
of
growth.
During
his
phase
of
increasing
ntegra-
tion with
the
global
ourist
conomy,
hese slands
must
attempt
o constrain he natural
ropensities
of international
ir,
hotel
and cruiseinterests
or
large-scale
acilitiesand
high-volume
isitation o
that
hese
growth
mperatives
o not
exceed he
n-
sulareconomic
labor,
utilities,
etc.)
and
socio-en-
vironmental
absorptivecapacities.
This will
re-
quireatleastthreemajornitiatives:1)preventing
further
ncroachment n
renewable
esourceuses
(agriculture,
isheries); 2)
sequencing arge
deve-
lopments
n
stages
over
ong
horizons;
nd
(3)
en-
gaging
residents ot
only
in
participatory
ecision-
making,
but
also
providing
hem
with
a
stronger
i-
nancial
take
n
the
industry.
The
latter
may
be ac-
complished
by
tax and other
ncentives or
small-
scale,
ocal
abor-intensive
nterprises
nd or
ocal
purchases by
hoteliers/restaurateurs/developers.
Targeting
nter-island
egional
ourists s
also war-
ranted ince suchvisitors upportmaller cale lo-
cal
service
suppliers
and tend o
travelto more
geographically
ispersed
areas
of
the
destination
country, hereby
acilitating
wider
distribution f
the
income
from
tourism
Sinclair
and
Voker,
1993,
p.
213).
Growth anbe further
imited
at
crit-
ical
habitatsand
stressed
sites
by raising
access
fees
to also
secure
unding
or
biodiversity
onser-
vationand
managementLindberg,
991).
The
Seychelles
represents good
example
of a
mid-stressed
destination
managing
tourism
through
ocalizationand ecotourism
n
a macr-
oeconomiccontextof
fallingcopra
prices
and ish
catches
(Shah,
2002).
For
three
decadesthe
gov-
ernment as
managed
Cousin
sland,
a defunct o-
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Annaler
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JEROME . MCELROY
conut
plantation
onverted
o a wildlife
refuge
for
Hawksbill
urtles,
Seychelles
Warblers
and other
rare
errestrial nd marine
pecies.
Ten
percent
of
all
Seychelle
visitors take
day-trip
adventures o
the site in
local vessels. Fees finance
conservation
of the slandandalso
support
cientific ourism nd
environmental
ducational
rograms.
The Maldives
provides
another
llustration f an
intermediate
estination
accommodating
ourism
growth
n
an unfavorablemacroeconomic
ontext:
the
collapse
of
its fresh ish
export
market o
frozen
fish
and heclosureof a
major
UK airbase.
Over
he
past
two
decades,
ourismhas been
principally
e-
sponsible
or
directly
expanding mployment
nd
stimulating
ndirect
activity
n
building
materials,
handicraftsnd hell
souvenirs,
nd
other
ottage
n-
dustries.To manage his growth, he government
has craftedan
environmentally
ntegrated
nd
so-
cially segregated
ourism
tylewhereby
mallunin-
habitedslandsacross
he
sprawling rchipelago
re
leased to
foreign
investors o construct
elf-con-
tained,
high-quality,
ow-density
resorts. Strict
building
nd
operational
odes
serve o
preserve
he
natural
patrimony
and to attractaffluent visitors
from
Europe
and
Japan
Domroes,
1999).
Deve-
lopers
arealso
required
o
provide
heirown
utilities,
waste
disposal
andstaffaccommodation.n order o
minimizeWestern nfluenceon the local Muslim
population,
he
government
lso
regulates
isitor
ac-
tivities,
.e.
prohibiting
ude
bathing
s well as over-
nightstays
on inhabitedslands.
The outcome
of all
such
planning
s that he
Maldiveshas becomeone
of
the best water
port
andunderwater
iving
desti-
nations n
the world
Cockerell, 995).
In contrast o the
Seychelles
and the
Maldives,
noted
for
their
ong-rangeplanning
o control he
pace
of
development
Innskeep,
1994),
Antigua
provides
an intermediate
ase of nonsustainable
growth.Centuries f deforestationorsugar ulture
presaged
he
post-war rowth
of masstourism.
Be-
tween 1975 and 1980
totalvisitation
doubled,
and
doubled
again
between
1980
and
1990.
During
these
years
more
mangrove wamps
and
offshore
reefswere
damaged
r killed
han
n all
previous
s-
land
history
Coram,
1993),
hrough
ntensecoastal
commercial olonization.
ubsequent
o
these
asset
losses,
overnight
visitors
have
still not recovered
from
heir
arly
1990
evels
(WTO,2001).
This
pol-
icy
failure
derives
rom
the absenceof the
five in-
gredients
llustrated
n
the Bermudian
ase:
(1)
a
legacy
of environmental
eglect,
2)
the absenceof
a cleardestination
dentity
anchored o
the
native
genius
of the
place,
(3)
the
poor
performance
f
non-tourist
iversification
nto
manufacturing
nd
domestic
agriculture,
4)
marginal
itizen
andNGO
decision-making
articipation,
nd
(5)
the
political
directorate's
persistent
preference
or
short-term
economic
gain
over
long-term
ustainable
atural
resource
planning
nd
management.
For the least
developed
destinations,
he
key
challenge
is
to
establish international
isibility.
Ideally,
this
requires
a
major community-wide
planning
effort to achieve three
objectives:
1)
to
identify
the
islands'
unique
assets/attractions,
2)
to construct he
transport
nd
acility
nfrastructure
for
sustainably
ccessing
hese
assets,
and
3)
to de-
terminea
destination
dentitycompatible
with the
native naturaland cultural
genius
of the
place.
This is a
formidable
ask,
but
fortunately
hese is-
landshaveamplepolicyroomto maneuver ueto
of their
earlyposition
n
theresort
ycle. They
have
sufficient
imeto
develop
a tourism
tyle
that s so-
cially
acceptable, nvironmentallyompatible
nd
economically
iable,
and hereare
a
number f
suc-
cessful
models
of
integrated
planning
available
(Manning
nd
Dougherty,
1999).
These
destinations lso
possess
some
of
the
best
opportunities
or
designing
moresustainable lter-
natives
to
mass tourism.
Although
recent
growth
has
elevated t
to
intermediate
tatus,
Dominica
s
one of the best examples of comprehensively
planned
cotourism.
Basedon
its
unique
natural
s-
sets
(riverine
cology,
spectacular
alls,
black-sand
beaches),
the
government
s
fostering
small-scale
local
tourism
emphasizing
the forested
nterior,
volcanic
phenomena,
he
remnant
f Carib ndian
culture of the east coast and colonial historical
sites
(Weaver,
1998,
p.
194).
Other ecotourism
possibilities
Weaver
dentifies or
low-density
Pa-
cific islands
nclude
hiking
rails
n
Samoa,
village
tourism
n
the
Solomons,
andcontrolled
diving
ac-
tivity n theEnipeinMarineParkonPohnpeinthe
Marshall slands.
Summary
and further research
This
analysis
applied
he TourismPenetration
n-
dex to 51 small slandsacross
he
world
o
broadly
assess tourism'soverall
pressure
n
fragile
nsular
societies and
ecosystems.
In
the
contextof an ab-
breviated
hree-stage
ersionof Butler's
ifecycle
model,
the
TPI classified slands nto
least,
inter-
mediateandmost
penetrated
estinations.
n so do-
ing
it
provided
n
early
warning
ignal
orresortar-
eas
crossing
he threshold o the
high-density
tage
and
possibly
non-sustainable
tourism deve-
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Annaler
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TOURISM EVELOPMENT
N SMALL SLANDS
ACROSSTHE
WORLD
lopment.
As a
highlyaggregative
udimentary
ool,
however,
he
index suffers rom
a
number f
limi-
tations,
n
particular
he
failure o
capture
easonal
variations s well
as the
geographic
oncentration
of visitor
lows in dualistic
and
archipelagic
oun-
tries.A firstorder f
follow-up
esearch houldad-
dress
these and other
deficiencies o
improve
he
TPI's
performance
nd
reliability.
A
second
potentially romising
venue or fur-
ther
tudy
oncernshe
nfluence f
political
tatus,
i.e. the
character f
jurisdiction,
n island
ourism
development.Although
non-sovereign
urisdic-
tions
make
up
45
percent
23/51)
of
the totalsam-
ple
in
this
study, hey
are
markedly ver-represent-
ed
among
he
most tourism
developed
and
clearly
under-represented
mong
he
least
penetrated.
o
illustrate, 2of the13mostdevelopeddestinations
with the
highest
TPI scores
are
non-sovereign
e-
pendencies
or
states
(Hawaii),
while
only
two of
the
16 least
tourist-penetrated
re
dependencies
(New
Caledonia and
Reunion).
Such
evidence
though
impressionistic
uggests
that
non-sover-
eign political
status
may
confer
particular
dvan-
tages
for
tourism
growth.
Thesecould nclude
ge-
ographic
proximity
o and
ease of travel
no
pass-
ports,
same
currency)
rom
major
mother
ountry
origin
markets,
eady
access to
investment
apital
andaid-financedransportndcommunicationsn-
frastructure,
pecial
ax and
duty-free
oncessions
for
gift/liquor
urchases
s
well as other
avorable
advantages
hat
deserve
urther
xamination.
Jerome L.
McElroy
Department
of
Business
and Economics
Saint
Mary's
College
Notre
Dame,
IN
46556
USA
E-mail:
mcelroy
@
aintmarys.edu
Notes
1. An
earlier
ersionof this
paper
was
presented
t
the
Islands
VII
Conference,
nstitute
f
Island
Studies,
University
of
Prince
Edward
Island,
Charlottetown,
EI
(June 26-30,
2002).
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.
(1994):
The
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ycle
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COOPER,
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Progress
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Tourism,
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Hospitality
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5)
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Wiley.
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York,
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(1981):
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