Pareto World Wide Offshore AS · 2015-04-15 · Executive Summary Market Development Offshore oil...
Transcript of Pareto World Wide Offshore AS · 2015-04-15 · Executive Summary Market Development Offshore oil...
Pareto World Wide Offshore AS
2nd quarter report 2014
Link: www.paretoprojectfinance.no/avdelinger/forvaltning/offshorefond
Executive Summary
Market Development
Offshore oil services demand has been mixed this
year, with cost saving initiatives among the oil
companies affecting activity levels in many areas.
It remains to be seen whether this is a one-time
event or represents the early phase of a long
term trend. In the North Sea, the absence of
large development projects has resulted in this
impact being felt more sharply than in other
areas, where development spending is still
growing.
The rig markets generally appear to have peaked
for now, although the Fund has no exposure
here. The offshore support vessel market in the
North Sea has disappointed this year and while
demand may appear to be flat for the next year
or so, it is positive that newbuilding ordering is at
a low ebb.
Portfolio
The contract coverage is 83% with a weighted
average contract length of 3.1 years. The
portfolio is focused on modern assets and is well
spread across several market segments and
geographic regions. The high contract coverage
is expected to preserve a good dividend capacity
until exits are made.
The way forward
Following a distribution of NOK 4.50 per share in
June 2014, PWWO has paid NOK 52.50 per share
to its shareholders during the past two years.
The two project realizations that are in process
will contribute with proceeds to PWWO of around
NOK 15 per share, and it is aimed to distribute
an equivalent amount to PWWO shareholders
during Q3’14, barring any unforeseen
circumstances.
The term of PWWO was extended to July 2016 at
the Annual General Meeting in June 2014. The
extended lifetime does not mean that realisations
are pushed out in time, but will be executed as
soon as deemed reasonable to preserve
shareholders’ values. A clear signal of this is the
concluded sale of the two projects which
amounted to approximately 12% of the NAV as
per year end 2013. There is no guarantee that
the entire portfolio will be realised within the
extended lifetime (market conditions may
increase the difficulty of realising at satisfactory
values), but the Manager and the Board are very
much focused on realisations.
PWWO will refrain from investing further for the
remainder of its lifetime, save for follow-up
investments in existing projects, if required.
NAV was up by 2.4% during H1’14, reflecting two meaningful project realizations have been agreed to
during the quarter (with completion during Q3’14) as well as a strengthening USD vs NOK. Otherwise,
the projects continue as planned and the contract coverage continues to be above 80% based on NAV.
The markets are stable, and the oil price is flattish with no immediate signs of significant change.
NAV PWWO NOK 102/share NAV POK NOK 48/share
(as of 30 June 2014)
Portfolio News
BassDrill Alpha Ltd
The uptime of the rig has improved during 2014 from
an unsatisfactory level during H2’13. The rig is on a
two-year contract extension on a higher day rate which
expires in December 2015. The tender rig market
overall appears to have levelled out and it will be of
interest to follow the trend in jack-up rig rates in the
coming year, as these normally act as the benchmark
for tender rigs.
Neptune Subsea IS
The charterer has both vessels employed on short term
contracts, one in West Africa and one in the North Sea.
The hire payments are on track. The project made its
first distribution to shareholders during July 2014,
totalling USD 7m (PWWO’s share is USD 1.7m).
Vestland Seismic IS
The vessel M/V Vikland is still idle and there have been
no material developments regarding a new charter or a
sale. The shareholders contributed USD 1m in uncalled
capital during Q2’14 to pay bank installments.
Master & Commander IS
Both vessels are now on long term charters and the
project made a USD 1.5m dividend payment during
Q2’14.
Asian Offshore III IS
The average day rate for the six vessels was USD
8,200/d during Q2’14, up 14% from the preceding
quarter. The integration process together with AO I and
partner ACS has been formalized and a term sheet has
been signed with an international shipping bank to
finance the new, integrated company. It is expected
that the integration process will be finalized in early
Q4’14.
Iceman IS
The ultra large AHTS has been affected by a very weak
North Sea spot market during the spring and summer,
with results well below budget. The value has been
marked down due to negative free cash flow. The
vessel has secured a 3-month contract starting in early
Q3’14 at an acceptable day rate.
Songa Eclipse
While the project was sold in Q3’11, PWWO has been
subject to a USD 5.6m claim from the initial rig
manager, LOG, relating to a dispute regarding a so-
called “slot fee”. In a ruling in November 2013, the
Oslo Municipal Court (Oslo Tingrett) rejected the claim.
However, the claimant has appealed the ruling to
Borgarting Court of Appeals (Lagmansretten). As a
result, PWWO will have to continue to make a provision
for a potential negative outcome until the next round in
the Courts has been concluded. A court date has been
set for March 2015, but this may be deferred towards
the end of the year.
Project sales
PWWO has agreed to sell the five barges owned by the
sister-projects Offshore Accommodation and Parbarge.
The transaction is set to complete during July 2014 and
will result in total proceeds to investors some 24%
above NAV. The proceeds will amount to roughly NOK
15 per share in PWWO.
Payments from projects
During Q2’14, PWWO received NOK 2.9m in payments
from projects.
PWWO is invested in a broad range of offshore projects, which implies a significant
diversification across different asset types and market segments. This section provides an
update on the quarter’s most important news flow related to the underlying investments.
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240PWWO - NAV development NAV per share
NAV per share (dividend adjusted)
151
102
50
14
112
3 7
143
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100
150
200
PWWO - NAV Composition per share (NOK)
Charter
free values
Value of
charters
Cash in
SPVsDebt in
SPVs
Sellers'
credit
Cash in
PWWO
Other
costsNAV
PWWO
Tax
Net Asset Value Development (PWWO)
NAV development
An increase in the value of the portfolio contributed
to a net 1.4% increase in NAV during H1’14, with
the remaining being down to a strengthening of the
USD. As a result, NAV ended up at NOK 102 per
share at the end of Q2’14, which equals a net
appreciation of 2.4% adjusted for the NOK 4.50 per
share distribution paid out in June 2014.
PWWO makes semi-annual NAV calculations.
Accordingly, the next NAV will be published as of
31.12.2014 and will be reported to investors in the
report for the fourth quarter 2014.
NAV is down 23% since inception in 2007. This poor
return reflects the cyclical timing of PWWO’s
inception, which started investing at the peak of the
previous cycle, just as we headed straight into the
2008 financial crisis. This is reflected in the fact that
oil service stocks on the Oslo Stock Exchange are
flat in the same period. That being said, the
performance since the bottom has been reasonably
good with NAV rising 61% since the end of 2009.
This reflects the intense work to turn around
troublesome projects with exit and contract
opportunities having improved along with better
markets.
As seen in the graph below, the estimated values of
the charters, charter free values, cash and debt in
the projects constitute NOK 100 per share in PWWO.
Cash, tax positions and cost provisions at the
holding company net a positive NOK 2 per share.
Direct yield
PWWO strives to make cash distributions to
shareholders as we move towards the end of the
company’s life cycle in 2015. A total of NOK 52.50
per share (26% of par value) has been paid out
during the past two and a half years. All
distributions have been repayments of paid in
capital. A further distribution of capital can be
expected in Q3’14, following the completion of the
ongoing two project realizations.
Net asset value was up 2.4% during H1’14. Of this, 1.4%-points come from an appreciation of the value
of the portfolio, primarily due to completed or agreed project realizations, while 1%-points came from a
strengthened USD. Overall, PWWO is likely to continue to benefit from underlying cash flows, while
improving market conditions in oil services indicate an upside in asset values in the coming years.
Last 6 mths Last 12 mths Last 24 mths Since inception
PWWO 2.4% 4.7% 12.3% -22.8 %
Oslo Stock Exchange 12.6% 31.8% 51.8% 23.2%
Offshore Index * 2.9% 9.6% 17.9% 0.1%
* Based on OSE101010 Energy Equipment & Service
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120 POK - NAV developmentNAV per share
NAV per share (dividend adjusted)
Net Asset Value Development (POK)
NAV development
NAV as of 30.06.2014 was NOK 48, up 2.7% on the
previous NAV as of 31.12.2013 and up 4.3% for the
past year, both adjusted for the repayments of capital
made to shareholders.
Direct yield
PWWO strives to make cash distributions to
shareholders as we move towards the end of the
company’s life cycle in 2015. As a result, NOK 27.20
per share has been paid out to POK shareholders
during the past two and a half years. All distributions
have been repayments of paid in capital. A further
distribution of capital can be expected in Q3’14,
following the completion of the ongoing two project
realizations.
NAV in the feeder company Pareto Offshorekapital ASA («POK») increased by 2.7% during H1’14 and is
up 4.3% in the past 12 months. POK currently has more than 1,600 shareholders and the company
acts as the main marketplace for second hand transactions for small, non-institutional investors.
Last 6 mths Last 12 mths Last 24 mths Since inception
POK 2.7% 4.3% 11.7% -24.8 %
Oslo Stock Exchange 12.6% 31.8% 51.8% 23.2%
Offshore Index * 2.9% 9.6% 17.9% 0.1%
* Based on OSE101010 Energy Equipment & Service
Spot/Asset Play
17 %
Timecharter
24 %
Bareboat
59 %
Charterparty Distribution based on NAV+commited
PSV/AHTS (Asia)
13%
PSV/AHTS
(Europe)
5%
Accommodation
16%
Subsea
34%
Seismic
10%
Tender Rig
24%
Segment Distribution based on NAV+commited
Total / CNR
34%African Offshore
Services
25%
Reef Subsea
16%
Swiber
16%
CGG
4%
Bourbon
2%
Fairfield Nodal
2%
Hallin
1%
Charter hire backlog by counterpart
Portfolio
Investments and capital
PWWO’s portfolio consists of 11 projects which owns
stakes in 25 units. The average contract length is 3.1
years and the contract coverage is 83%.
The gross nominal value of the contract backlog is
roughly NOK 460m Total debt in the projects amounts
to around NOK 490m. The backlog is primarily made
up by solid counterparts.
PWWO had a cash holding of NOK 30m as of 30.06.14.
There are no known capital requirements in the
underlying projects. However, the company has made
a provision for the dispute with Larsen Oil & Gas in
connection with the Songa Eclipse.
The life cycle of PWWO expires 30 June 2016. The
underlying projects are expected to yield good cash
flow until then. Asset and/or portfolio sales will be
considered at the opportune time to provide
shareholders with the best possible exit values.
Current market conditions indicate that a better
environment for making exits compared to previous
years.
The contracted cash flow is evenly spread across five
main segments; rigs, supply, accommodation, seismic
and subsea.
The portfolio is highly robust, with most assets on long term contracts. Assets on long term contracts
make up 83% of the total exposure, and are well distributed across the different offshore oil services
segments.
Rigs
16 %
Supply
22 %
Oil Service
62 %
PWWO - EBITDA composition
1-2 years
44 %Later
56 %
PWWO - Duration of contract backlog
489457
362
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2014 2015 2016 - 2029
PWWO - Debt in projects, NOKm
Sellers credit
Bank debt
-200
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PWWO - Cash flow composition vs debt service, NOKm
Capex (-) / Sale of assets (+)
Spot EBITDA
Contracted EBITDA
Debt service
Project / company Segment Contract Charterparty ChartererProportion
of NAV
Neptune Subsea IS Subsea Feb-17 Bareboat Reef Subsea 31.8 %
Bassdrill Alpha Ltd Tender Rig Dec-15 Timecharter Total / CNR 23.9 %
ParBarge IS Accommodation Jul-23 Bareboat African Offshore Services 11.6 %
Asian Offshore III IS PSV/AHTS (Asia) Spot/Asset play 7.1 %
Vestland Seismic IS Seismic Spot/Asset play Albatross Shipping Ltd. 6.8 %
Bukhit Timah Offshore DIS PSV/AHTS (Asia) Jul-20 Bareboat Swiber Offshore Marine Pte 5.6 %
Offshore Accommodation IS Accommodation Dec-21 Bareboat African Offshore Services 4.1 %
Iceman IS PSV/AHTS (Europe) Spot/Asset play 3.1 %
Master and Commander IS Seismic Aug-18 Bareboat CGG/Fairfield Nodal 2.7 %
Carlisle Subsea IS Subsea Oct-15 Bareboat Hallin Marine Subsea 1.7 %
3B Offshore IS PSV/AHTS (Europe) Nov-17 Bareboat Bourbon 1.6 %
Portfolio (continued)
Second Hand Market and Share Liquidity
POK
As of 30 Jun’14 POK had 5.3m shares outstanding, net
of 160,000 own shares that were purchased by POK
during Q3’13. The last trading price in POK was NOK 33
per share (25 Jun’14) and the previous five trades are
displayed in the table below (only the last transaction
was concluded ex. Repayment in Jun’14). Second hand
prices have been rather stable, and the discount to NAV
has been around 30%, as can be seen from the graph
below (red dots). Investors who wish to buy or sell
shares should contact their advisors.
As of 30 Jun’14 PWWO had 4.37m shares outstanding. Pareto Project Finance AS (”PPF”) strives to
facilitate an active second hand market for shares. The last trading price in PWWO was NOK 89.5 per
share (8 Apr’14). Investors who wish to buy or sell shares should contact their advisors.
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OK)
Price p
er
share
Pareto Offshorekapital ASA - Second Hand Trades
Volume traded Nav per share
NAV per share (dividend adjusted) Second hand price per share
Date Share price No. of shares Volume (NOK)
07.05.14 34.0 1 980 67 320
12.05.14 34.0 1 100 37 400
14.05.14 34.0 19 607 666 638
16.05.14 33.0 1 000 33 000
25.06.14 33.0 980 32 340
Number of trades since startup: 552
Volume traded since startup (NOK): 90 519 274
Average volume per trade (NOK): 163 984
The offshore oil services market
The large oil companies are trimming capex…
As highlighted towards the end of 2013, the large,
integrated oil companies are trimming their capex
levels. This is primarily due to the sticky oil prices
combined with rising costs, which in turn hurts
profitability on both new projects as well as from
existing fields. This combination resulted in weak
share price performances among oil companies and
needed to be adressed.
…to make way for dividend payments
As evidenced by the graph to the left, there is not
enough profit margin with current oil prices to support
both sustained capex levels and the dividends required
to secure good share price performance. Something
has had to give, and this time around, it has been
capex. So far, it has had a positive impact on share
prices, with the most aggressive “cost-cutters”
achieving the best performance.
The offset of this is a continued decline in production
levels. Oil production from the 10 largest integrated oil
companies has declined for 16 quarters in a row, and
has accelerated in the last three. While the portfolios
may be high-graded through a focus on the more
profitable projects, it will nevertheless end up having
an impact on the supply of oil, which at some point
should have a positive impact on oil prices and restore
a sense of normality. Therefore, our main thesis is still
that we are experiencing a temporary lull in oil service
markets.
North Sea AHTS market disappoints big time
Most observers were extremely bullish on the North
Sea AHTS spot market this year, citing rising demand
from an influx of drilling rigs, coupled with a reduction
in the number of available vessels due to high,
project-related requirements in Arctic Russia. They
have all been wrong. The market has been very weak
during the spring and summer.
The main reason appears to be reduced demand from
Statoil, one of the more vocal «cost-cutters» in the oil
industry, and by far the biggest client in the North Sea
AHTS market. In addition, the weather has been
benign, which normally improves vessel efficiency. The
remainder of the year looks bleak, but if there’s one
thing we know about this market, then it is to expect
the unexpected!
The activity growth in the oil services markets continued last year, albeit with some slowness emerging
in the seismic markets towards the end of the year. In the absence of a rising oil price, the oil industry
is trimming its upstream investment plans to be able to preserve shareholder dividends, which is
resulting in a slower growth outlook near term. The longer term, however, looks promising.
Capex budgets 10 largest integrated, USDm
Source: Bloomberg, SP1 Markets
Break even oil prices, 10 largest integrated (Brent $/b)
Source: Bloomberg, SP1 Markets
Fund Management Team Richard Jansen Head of Fund Management Shipping/Offshore Phone: + 47 22 01 58 96 E-email: [email protected] Dronning Mauds Gate 3, P.O. Box 1396 Vika, NO-0114 Oslo, Norway, Tlf: 22 87 87 00, www.pareto.no
Patrick Kartevoll Fund Manager Shipping/Offshore Phone: + 47 22 01 58 79 E-mail: [email protected]
Disclaimer
This Quarterly Report has been prepared in order to
provide information about Pareto World Wide Offshore
AS (“PWWO” or the “Company”) and must not be
considered an offer to trade in the shares of the
Company.
Information contained in this Quarterly Report is
obtained by Pareto Project Finance AS (“Pareto Project
Finance”, “Pareto”, or “PPF”). Information is presented
to the best of our efforts and knowledge, but Pareto
Project Finance AS cannot guarantee that the
information is correct or all inclusive. Pareto Project
Finance AS takes no responsibility for any loss caused
by information given being misleading, wrongful or
incomplete nor for any other loss suffered as a
consequence of investments made in the Company.
This Quarterly Report includes and is based on, among
other things, forward-looking information and
statements. Such forward-looking information and
statements are based on the current expectations,
estimates and projection of the company or
assumptions based on information available to the
company and Pareto Project Finance AS. Such forward-
looking information and statements reflect current
views with respect to future events and are subject to
risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may cause
actual events to differ materially from any anticipated
development. All investors must verify these
assumptions themselves. The company cannot give any
assurance as to the correctness of such information and
statements.
Historic returns and return forecasts do not constitute
any guarantee for future returns. Returns may vary as
a consequence of fluctuations in currency exchange
rates. Investors should be aware that there is
significant uncertainty related to valuations in the
current volatile market. The valuation process is
described in PPF’s market report as per April 2014.
Risks and costs are further described in the prospectus
(information memorandum) produced in relation to
share issues in the Company.
The contents of this presentation are not to be
construed as legal, business, investment or tax advice.
Each recipient should consult with its legal-, business-,
investment-, and tax advisors as to legal, business,
investment and tax advice. Specifically, Pareto Project
Finance AS has been engaged as the company’s
financial advisor and does not render – and shall not be
deemed to render – any advice or recommendations as
to a transaction.