Parametric Estimation for reliable IT Project Estimates Frank Vogelezang Manager Pricing Office –...
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Parametric Estimation for reliable IT Project Estimates Frank Vogelezang Manager Pricing Office – Ordina MPC Member – COSMIC
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Transcript of Parametric Estimation for reliable IT Project Estimates Frank Vogelezang Manager Pricing Office –...
Parametric Estimationfor reliable IT Project Estimates
Frank VogelezangManager Pricing Office – Ordina MPC Member – COSMIC
IntroductionFrank Vogelezang
Pricing Office- Setting commercial price for our service offerings- Challenging internal estimates with parametrics
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120 km new railway
Extending the supportfor the method byby targeted guidelines and improved documentation
AgendaParametric Estimation for reliable IT Project Estimates
Estimating
Getting a grip on IT cost and schedule
Functional Size
Translating requirements to manageable numbers
The power of parametrics
Building on proven reference datafor cost and schedule estimationfrom internal or external sources
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EstimatingGetting a grip on IT cost and schedule
Estimating IT projectsTwo essential routes
Objective
Size
Effort
The Expert
Parametrics
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Schedule & Cost
Definition of an estimateGetting grip on IT cost and schedule
An estimate is an analytical and unbiased prediction of how long it takes and what it will cost
The bias comes from the interplay with targets, commitments and plans
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Viable estimation = Reliable estimatesGetting grip on IT cost and schedule
Analytical Can you verify in some way what your experts tell you?
Unbiased Will an expert give the same answer twice?
Prediction 100% certainty costs too much time and resources!
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Functional SizeTranslating requirements to manageable numbers
2.7
M
Functional Size : Function Point AnalysisTranslating requirements to manageable numbers
FPA stands for FunctionPointAnalysis
What the software should be able to do (functionality)Functionexpressed in a number Pointbased on an objectively described method Analysis
Something intangible like functionality becomes a physical number that can be used for calculations
Five ISO/IEC standards: COSMIC, FiSMA, IFPUG, Mk II & NESMA
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Exit (X)
COSMIC Function Point Analysis : ISO/IEC 19761Translating requirements to manageable numbers
Entry (E)
Write (W) Read (R)
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The power of parametricsBuilding on proven reference data
Parametric reality checkBuilding on proven reference data
Paul Masson’sLaw
Parkinson’sLaw
Brooks’Law
Minimal time
Optimal effort
Schedule
Effor
t / C
ost
RealisticProductivity
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How much certainty do you needBuilding on proven reference data
Prob
abili
ty
Schedule / Cost
0%
€ 750
.000
50%
€ 1.
000.
000
75% €
1.25
0.00
0
90% €
1.90
0.00
0First likely option, overly optimistic
50/50 median result, for a balanced portfolio
75% for fixed price projects
90% for safety critical systems
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Keep track of the actual projectWhere will it end?
Schedule Variance
Time Variance
Cost VarianceBudget Variance
Actual costEarned value
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Forecast of the outcome with parametricsBuilding on proven reference data for cost and schedule estimation
ScheduleSlippage
CostOverrun
Actual costEarned valueTotal cost (forecast)Total value (planned)
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The power of parametricsViable estimates and cost-effective projects
Estimate & Plan Create a baseline parametric estimate Develop a Project Plan
Monitor and Control Document actuals Create forecast based on parametrics Re-estimate and establish new baseline
Measure and Analyse Establish variances for the whole project Determine parametric parameters Incorporate this knowledge in future estimates and plans
Estimate&
Plan
Actuals
Baseline
Baseline(s) vsFinal Actuals
Experience &Knowledge
Measure&
Analyse
Monitor&
Control
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ThePriceofIT.blogspot.com
@FrankVogelezang
FrankVogelezang
www.linkedin.com/in/frankvogelezang
www.cosmicon.com
