Paper of Fujiwara Sensei

8/3/2019 Paper of Fujiwara Sensei

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Expert Profile

Name Yu-Chi Weng

OrganizationSolid Waste Management Research Center,

Okayama University

Present Position Specially Appointed Assistant Professor

Telephone +81-86-251-8911

E-Mail Address [email protected]

Main Education/

Experience

Education: Ph.D., Kyoto University (2009) M.S., National Cheng-Kung University (2001) B.S., National Cheng-Kung University (1999)Experience: Specially Appointed Assistant Professor, Okayama University (2009-) Assistant Research Fellow, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research

(2004-2005) Assistant Engineer, Taipei City Government (2003-2004)

Selected

Publications /

Ongoing

research

projects

Selected Publication:-Book Weng, Y. C., Towards Sustainable Municipal Solid Waste Management: An

Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling Approach with A Case Studyof Taiwan, LAP Lambert Academic Publishing AG & Co. KG., ISBN

978-3838352695, May, 2010.-Journal Papers

Weng, Y. C., Fujiwara, T., Matsuoka, Y., 2010. Econometric Modeling of the

Consumer Behavior and Its Influence on Municipal Solid Waste Discards: ATaiwan Case Study. Journal of Environmental Science for SustainableSociety. In Press. Weng, Y. C., Fujiwara, T., Matsuoka, Y., 2010. An Analysis of MunicipalSolid Waste Discards in Taiwan Based on Consumption Expenditure andPolicy Interventions. Waste Management & Research 28(3), 245-255. Weng, Y. C., Fujiwara, T., Matsuoka, Y., 2009. Municipal Solid WasteManagement and Short-term Projection of the Waste Discard Levels in

Taiwan.Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management11 (2), 110-122. Weng, Y. C., Fujiwara, T., Matsuoka, Y., 2009. Estimation of Greenhouse GasEmission from the Treatment and Disposal of Municipal Solid Waste and ItsPolicy Implication: A Taiwan Case Study. Journal of Global Environment

Engineering 14, 47-55. Weng, Y. C., Chang, N. B., Lee, T. Y., 2008. Nonlinear Time Series Analysisof Ground-Level Ozone Dynamics in Southern Taiwan. Journal of

Environmental Management87 (3), 405-414.Ongoing Research Project: Evaluation of the Policy effect of the Pay-as-You-Throw (PAST) systems on

Household Solid Waste Reduction and the Potential Environmental Impacts

-A Case Study in Taiwan,Practical Research and Education of Solid WasteManagement Based on the Partnership Among Universities andGovernments in Asia and Pacific Countries, sponsored by the MEXT, Japan.


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Expert Profile

Name Prof. Takeshi FujiwaraPhoto

OrganizationSolid Waste Management Research Center,

Okayama University

Present Position Deputy Director & Professor

Telephone +81-86-251-8994

E-Mail Address [email protected]

Main Education/

Experience

Ph.D. (Engineering) Kyoto University

M.S. (Engineering) Kyoto University

B.E. (Engineering) Kyoto University

Solid Waste Management and Engineering

Environmental Systems Engineering

Selected

Publications /

Ongoing research

projects

Selected Publication

Jinmei Yang, Takeshi Fujiwara, Yuzuru Matsuoka and Wei Wang,

Application of a MSW Generation Estimation Model: A Comparison of

Generation Property among Metropolitan Cities in China, Journal of Global

Environment Engineering, Journal of Global Environment Engineering, Vol.

15, 1-14, 2010.

Yu-Chi Weng, Takeshi Fujiwara, Yuzuru Matsuoka, An Analysis of

Municipal Solid Waste Discards in Taiwan Based on Consumption

Expenditure and Policy Interventions, Waste Management & Research Vol.

28, No. 3, 245-255, 2010. Yu-Chi Weng, Takeshi Fujiwara, Yuzuru Matsuoka, Municipal Solid Waste

Management and Short-term Projection of the Waste Discard in Taiwan,

Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management, Vol.11, No. 2, 110-122,2009

Takeshi Fujiwara and Yusuke Kusakabe, Study on Estimation of Waste

Transportation Distance and Optimization of Transfer Station Location by

Using GIS, Selected Papers of Environmental Systems Research, Vol.36,

2008

Takeshi Fujiwara, Yuzuru Matsuoka and Yuko Kanamori, Development of

Estimation model for Waste Generation Considering Structure ofHousehold Expenditure, Selected Papers of Environmental Systems

Research, Vol.35, 471-480, 2007.

Research topics

Development of the Theories of Solid Waste Management for a Sound

Material-Cycle Society

Projection of Solid Waste Generation Based on Consumption-Waste

Behavior Models

Optimization of Solid Waste Treatment and Disposal Systems

Analysis and Management of Residents' Recycling Activities Establishment of Regional Solid Waste Management Systems

Development of Efficient Solid Waste Treatment Technologies

Promotion of International Solid Waste Management


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A Mid-term Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emission from Municipal Solid Waste

Treatment and Disposal Sector in Taiwan Regarding 3Rs Policy Effects

Yu-Chi Weng1,* and Takeshi Fujiwara

1

1. Solid Waste Management Research Center, Okayama University, Japan*Corresponding Author. Tel: +81 86 251 8994, +81 86 251 8994 E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract:

The increasing municipal solid waste (MSW) generation and the options of

appropriate MSW treatment technologies are particularly highlighted regarding its

worldwide impact on the global warming. It is imperative to assess the potentialgreenhouse gas (GHG) emission in the design of MSW treatment and disposal

systems. Coupling the MSW discards projection model and revised GHG emission

inventory both established in the authors research, this study aims at performing a

mid-term future projection by scenario analysis up to 2021, considering the changes

of socio-economic situation and the policy effects of the implemented 3Rs programs.

The analysis results indicate that plastic waste, paper waste and food waste would

contribute the largest share of GHG emission during the MSW treatment and disposalprocesses. Thus recycling and reducing activities on the abovementioned waste

streams should be enhanced in the context of preventing global warming.

Keywords: Municipal Solid Waste Treatment and Disposal; Greenhouse Gas E

mission; Policy Effects; Lifestyle Changes.

Presentation: Oral


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A Mid-term Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emission

from Municipal Solid Waste Treatment and DisposalSector in Taiwan Regarding 3Rs Policy Effects

Yu-Chi Weng* and Takeshi Fujiwara

Solid Waste Management Research CenterOkayama University

2010.09.16

Outline

Research Background

Research Purpose

Model Framework

Midterm Projection by Scenario Analysis

Major Achievement and Policy Implications


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Research Framework

Consumption

PeoplesLifestyle

Environ. Regulation& Policies

Macro-economicEnvironment

MSW Generation / Discards

5

GHG Emissions within MSW Treatment / Disposal

Efficient Policy Measures

EconometricModeling

Life-cycle Assessment usingIPCC 2006 guideline

Model Flow Diagram

Layer 2

Layer 3

Layer 4

...

Food

waste

Paper

waste

Plastic

wasteMetal waste

Clothing

Consumer Behavior Model II(Multinomial Logit Model)

Expenditure

Categories

ExpenditureSubcategories

Housing

Consumer Behavior Model I(Linear Expenditure System)

Food

MSW Discard Model(Simultaneous Equation System)

Consumption Forecasting Model(Econometric Modeling)

Macro-economic indicators

Individuals consumption expenditure

Layer 1

Socioeconomicindicators

MSW policyvariables

MSW CapacityEvaluation Model

Layer 5

GHG emissionRequired capacityplanning

Intermediate MSW Treatment& Final Disposal

6

Source: Weng et al., 2009.

Cost StructureAnalysis


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9

Data Source in the Model Development

Socio-economic and macro-economic data (including household

consumption expenditure )

Source: Taiwan Directorate-General of Budget, Account and Statistics, , R.O.C.

13 important indices: 1981-2008

A domestic population projection from 2006 to 2051

Data in terms of MSW management

Source: Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration, R.O.C.

Dry-basis composition data of MSW:1992-2004

Overall MSW generation and discards: 1987-2008

Indices Description Unit

Socioeconomic

variablesPGDPt Per capita gross domestic product

Taiwan dollar at2001 prices

Unempt The unemployment rate in the labor force in the year t. %

Hov65rtThe portion of the aging population (over 65 years) in theoverall population

%

Savingt The saving rate in the disposable expenditure in the year t. %

MSW policy

variable Dum1

Dummy variable for the Resource Recycling Four-in-One

Project action; before 1997, the value is zero and 1otherwise.

none

Dum2

Dummy variable for the Restrictions on the Use ofPlastic Bags action; before 2001, the value is zero and 1

otherwise.

none

Dum3

Dummy variable for the Mandatory Household

Classification and Food Waste Recycling actionimposed in Taipei city; before 2003, the value is zero and 1otherwise.

none

IncitThe portion of MSW discards treated by incinerators in theyear t, a continuous variable.

%

RecytThe recycled portion of MSW generation in the year t, a

continuous variable.%

Exogenous Variables in the Estimation Model System

10


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11

Future Projection of MSW Discards with theEstimation Model System

The modeling considers:

-- The lifestyle changes

-- The consumer behavior

-- The effects of the important MSW policy measures

The future projection assumes that the relationships

among the variables are to be the same in the future

period.

12

Theindividualssavingra

te(%)

Historical Trends of the Socioeconomic Variables

IndicatorBasic statistics GDP growth rate (%) Unemployed rate (%) Saving rate (%)

Maximum 6.59 5.17 26.52

Mean 4.52 3.72 24.59Minimum -2.17 2.60 21.63

Standard deviation 2.49 0.96 1.87


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Future Projection by Scenario Analysis: 2009-2021

13

Exogenous variableScenario

A B C

Consumption levelBAU

(Ref. year is 2008)low high

Growth rate of per capita GDP (%/year)-1.91 in 2009,5 since 2010

-1.91 in 2009,4 since 210

-1.91 in 2009,7 since 2010

Saving rate, Savingt(%) 22.79 24 21

Unemployed rate, Unempt(%)5.85 in 2009,4 since 2010

5.85 in 2009,4.5 since 210

5.85 in 2009,2.5 since 2010

Aging population rate, Hov65rt(%) Increase progressively based on the nation projection

Dum1, Dum2and Dum3All the three policy measures are activated in the

scenarios.

Recycled portion, Recyt(%)Increase progressively from 42.5 (2009) to 50 (2011), andfurther to 60 during 2012 to 2021.

Incineration rate, Incit(%) 94.58 (2008 level)

a. Model simulation

b. Future projection

Future Projection of the Consumption Expenditure by Scenario Analysis

Projection of annual per capita consumption expenditure.

Projection of annual per capita consumption expenditure on food Projection of consumption expenditure for the subcategories on food14


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15

Changes on the Consumption Expenditure in the Scenarios

For the categories:

For the subcategories: Items with large changes are

Food from restaurant (Fd5,t), Footwear (Cloth2,t),

Residential rent (House1,t), Maintenance and repairs (House2,t),

Furniture (HA1,t), Housekeeping services (HA5,t),

Health insurance (Med4,t),

Maintenance and repair charge of transportation equipment (Trans2,t),

Traveling expenses (AE1,t), Entertainment expenses (AE2,t), Educational expenses (AE5,t),

Other non-saving insurance expenses (Mis8,t)

Category

ScenarioFdt Clotht Houst HAt Medt Transt AEt Mist

Scenario A 250.0 276.1 421.4 488.5 437.1 349.1 405.0 420.0

Scenario B 222.5 220.6 311.0 272.2 336.5 321.3 336.0 317.9

Scenario C 327.0 327.0 729.4 1088.0 699.8 419.9 599.6 699.7

Unit: %

Model fitting results of overall annual per capitaMSW discards by the SES model

Future Projection of the MSW Discards by Scenario Analysis (I)

16

The per capita total MSW discards seems to increase significantly due to the scenarios with the

optimistic economic development and conservative impacts of policy interventions.

Model developmentBackcasting

Ex-post forecasting

Future projection


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Future Projection of the MSW Discards by Scenario Analysis (II)

(a) Paper waste (b)Plastic waste

(c)Food waste (d) Moisture of waste

17Unit (y axis): kg / capita / year

Future Projection of the MSW Discards by Scenario Analysis (III)

(g) Miscellaneouscombustible

(h) Miscellaneousincombustible

(f) Glass waste(e) Metal waste

18Unit (y axis): kg / capita / year


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Uncertainty of Estimation Model System and Its Projection

19

The relationships among the variables may change in

the future.

Potential important policy variables (policy

intervention incidents) may exist in the future.

Model Flow Diagram

Layer 2

Layer 3

Layer 4

...

Food

waste

Paper

waste

Plastic

wasteMetal waste

Clothing

Consumer Behavior Model II(Multinomial Logit Model)

Expenditure

Categories

ExpenditureSubcategories

Housing

Consumer Behavior Model I(Linear Expenditure System)

Food

MSW Discard Model(Simultaneous Equation System)

Consumption Forecasting Model(Econometric Modeling)

Macro-economic indicators

Individuals consumption expenditure

Layer 1

Socioeconomicindicators

MSW policyvariables

MSW CapacityEvaluation Model

Layer 5

GHG emissionRequired capacityplanning

Intermediate MSW Treatment& Final Disposal

20

Source: Weng et al., 2009.

Cost StructureAnalysis


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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Miscellaneous

Dumping

Generallandfilling

Sanitarylandfilling

Incineration

National Target: 80% by incineration in 2006

21

MSW Treatment and Disposal Options in Taiwan

Source: TEPA, 2010

GHG Emission from the MSW Treatment and Disposal facilities

Estimation method: IPCC 2006 guideline (Tier1 and Tier 2)

Based on the dry-basis composition data of MSW discards

GHG emission in terms of sewage solid wastes is excluded herein.

Three pathways are considered in the estimation of GHG emission:

Landfilling- using the first-order decaying (FOD) model for methane

emission

Incineration

Composting of recycled food waste

The global warming potential (GWP) over a time horizon of 100 years

are assumed 1 for CO2, 2 for CO, 23 for methane, 296 for N2O (IPCC,2001).

22


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23

GHG Emission within MSW Landfilling (I)

Decomposable organic matters

The first-order decaying (FOD) model is introduced for methane emission.

tifitititi MCFDOCDOCWELDDOCm ,,,,, =

( ) += eDDOCmaDDOCmdDDOCma tititi 1,,,( ) = eDDOCmapDDOCmdecom titi 11,,

where DDOCmi,tdenotes the mass of decomposable DOCmdeposited in year t for waste stream i(Gg/yr);

WELi,t is the mass deposited of MSW discards, waste stream i, in year t(Gg/yr) on a dry basis;

DOCi,tdenotes degradable organic carbon for waste stream iin the year t, fraction (Gg-C/Gg-waste);

DOCi,f is the fraction of DOCi,t that can be decomposed in year t(fraction);

MCFi,t is the methane correction factor for aerobic decomposition of deposition for waste iin year t(fraction).

where DDOCmai,tdenotes DDOCmi,taccumulated in the landfill sites at the end of year t(Gg/yr) for waste stream i;

DDOCmai,t-1 is its lag term (Gg/yr);

DDOCmdi,t is DDOCmi,tdeposited into the landfill sites in year t(Gg/yr);

DDOCmdecompi,t is the amount of DDOCmi,tdecomposed within the year t(Gg/yr);

is the reaction constant, i.e.=ln(2) /t1/2 (yr-1),

t1/2 is the decaying half-time of DDOCmi,t, year.

24

GHG Emission within MSW Landfilling (II)

The methane emission from each waste stream is calculated by

The overall methane emission is calculated by

12/16,, = FpDDOCmdecomLMEG titi

( )tti

tits OXRLMEGLMEE

= 1,,

where LMEGs,t is the amount of methane generated from decomposable matters from waste stream iwithin year t

(Gg/yr);

Fis the fraction of methane, by volume, in generated landfill gas (fraction);

16/12 denotes the molecular weight ratio CH4/C (ratio).

where LMEEs,t is the overall methane emission in year t(Gg/yr);

LMEGi,t is the methane generated by waste fraction iin year t(Gg/yr);

Rt is the amount of recovered CH4 in year t(Gg/yr);

OXt is the oxidation fraction of CH4 in year t(ratio).


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25

0

0.1

0.2

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

DDOCm-decompT =0.20

DDOCm-decompT =0.15

DDOCm-decompT =0.13

DDOCm-decompT =0.10

DDOCm-decompT =0.05

DDOCm-decompT =0.02

Year of placement

DDOCmdecompt = 0.20

DDOCmdecompt = 0.15DDOCmdecompt = 0.13

DDOCmdecompt = 0.10

DDOCmdecompt = 0.02

DDOCmdecompt = 0.05

Parameter Setting of the Reaction Constant () of the First-OrderDecaying Model for Methane Emission in the Landfilling

Reaction constant () (yr-1)

0.2 0.15 0.13 0.1 0.05

Half-life time * 4 5 6 7 14

Duration required to decay99% of unit weight ofwaste*

24 31 36 46 92

*Unit: year (after deposition)

close to the

assumption of thepopular triangular

method in Indiancases

Behavior of thetriangular method

26

GHG Emission within MSW Incineration

CO2 Emission

Methane Emission

N2O Emission

( )[ ] =i

iiitits OFFCFCFWGEICO 12442 /,,

6

,, 10= EFMWG tincits

6

2 10= EFNWGOEIN tincits ,,

where IC2OEs,t is the CO2 emission in the year tfrom the incineration process of MSW (Gg/yr);

WGi,t is the amount of MSW incinerated by composition (on a dry basis), Gg/yr;

CFi is the fraction of carbon in the dry matter (i.e., carbon content) of composition i;

FCFi is the fraction of fossil carbon in the total carbon of composition i;

OFi is the oxidation factor of composition i(fraction);44/12 denotes the conversion factor from C to CO2.

where IMEEs,t is the methane emission by incineration in the

year t(Gg/yr);

WGinci,t is the amount of MSW incinerated in the year t

(Gg/yr), on a wet basis;

EFMis aggregate methane emission coefficient (kg-

CH4/Gg-waste);

10-6 is the conversion factor from kilogram to gigagram.

where IN2OEs,t is the N2O emission by incineration in the year t(Gg/yr);WGinci,t is the amount of MSW incinerated in the year t(Gg/yr), on a wet basis;

EFNis aggregate N2O emission coefficient (kg-N2O /Gg-waste);

10-6 is the conversion factor from kilogram to gigagram.


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27

GHG Emission within Biological Treatment of MSW

Methane Emission

N2O Emission

titi,t REFMBMEE =

3

10)(i

310)( = iti,t2 EFMOEBNi

where BN2OEt is the N2O emission in the year tfrom the biological treatment processes of MSW (Gg/yr);

Mi,t is the amount organic waste treated by technology option i(Gg/yr);

EFi is the emission factor for technology option i(g N2O / kg waste treated).

where BMEEt is the methane emission in the year tfrom the biological treatment process of MSW (Gg/yr);

Mi,t is the amount organic waste treated by technology option i(Gg/yr);

EFi is the emission factor for technology option i(g CH4/ kg waste treated);

Rt is amount of methane recovered in the year tduring the process (Gg/yr).

Typical Values of Parameters Recommended by IPCC in the

Estimation for Incineration Process of MSW (IPCC, 2006)

28

Parameter Value Parameter Value

CFi Paper0.46

(0.42-0.50)FCFi Paper

0.01

(0-0.05)

Plastics0.75

(0.67-0.85)Plastics

1

(0.95-1)

Food 0.38*(0.20-0.50)

Food --

Textile0.50

(0.25-0.50)Textile

0.2

(0-0.50)

Leather0.67

(0.67)Leather

0.2

(0.2)

Garden0.49

(0.45-0.55)Garden 0

EFM 0.2 EFN 47

Note: a. *: recommended value from Yang et al., 2004 and is the same as the

default value of IPCC 2006 guideline.b. Values in the parentheses represent the rational ranges of the parameter.c. EFMand EFNuse the value for the stocker-type incinerator.


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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Paper Food Garden Textile Lea ther

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1 990 1 99 2 1 994 1 99 6 1 99 8 2 00 0 2 002 2 00 4 2 006

landfill

incineration

Annual CO2 (e.q.) Emission of the Landfilling of MSW Discards

in Taiwan: 1992-2004103 tonne s/ yr

Gg CO2 / yr

First OrderDecay Principle

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Paper Food Garden Text ile Leather

29

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Miscellaneous

Dumping

Generallandfilling

Sanitarylandfilling

Incineration

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Paper Plast ics Textile Leather

Annual CO2 (e.q.) Emission of the Incineration of MSW

Discards in Taiwan: 1992-2004

Gg CO2 / yr

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Paper Plastics Textile Leather

30


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103 tonnes / yr

Annual CO2 (e.q.) Emission of MSW Treatment and Disposal

System in Taiwan: 1992-2004

Annual CO2 Emission of MSW Treatment System in Japan

2005 CO2 emission share from MSWtreatment system

2004 MSW treatment share

IncinerationCO2 76.2%

77.49%CH4 0.2%

N2O 6.2%

Landfill CH4 12% 0.03%

Wastewater CH4 3%

N2O 2.4%

source: Japan EPA (2007); Moriguchi (2007).

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Composting

Incineration

Landfilling

Gg CO2 / yr

31

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021

Future Projection of Annual GHG Emission from the Landfilling

of MSW Discards: 2005-2021

32

Gg CO2 eq. / yr

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021

Paper Food Garden Textile Leather

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021

Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C


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Future Projection of Annual GHG Emission from the Incineration

of MSW Discards: 2005-2021

33

Gg CO2 eq. / yr

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2005 2009 2013 2017 20210

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021Paper Plastics Textile Leather

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021

Scenario A Scenario B ScenarioC

34

Future Projection of Annual GHG Emission from the

Composting of Recycled Food Waste: 2009-2021

Gg CO2 eq. / yr

It is assumed that the composted foodwaste is increased by 6% per year.

Future Projection


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Annual CO2 (e.q.) Emission of MSW Treatment and Disposal

System in Taiwan: 1992-2021

Gg CO2 / yr

Change oftechnology

options

35

Major Achievement and Policy Implications

The entire MSW modeling system could serve as adecision tool for MSW management at a comprehensiveaspect.

Analysis results show that annual GHG emission fromMSW treatment system is about 2.75% of total GHGemission in Taiwan in 2002.

Considering the fist order decay principle in theestimation of GHG emission of landfill disposal , lowerestimate would appear in the first several years.

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Major Achievement and Policy Implications (II)

Regarding the global warming issue, incineration seems to bea more environmental-friendly technology of MSW treatment,comparing to landfill disposal.

Reduction and recycling of food waste, paper waste andplastic waste would prevent the GHG emission from MSWtreatment and disposal system.

Domestic values of the parameter for the FOD processes as

well as other GHG emission pathways are essential for eachcountry.

37

Future Improvements

The current estimation of the GHG emission may beoverestimated while methane recovery is excluded herein.

GHG emissions from treatment of municipal waste waterscould be considered further.

GHG emissions from MSW collection and transportationprocesses should be considered.

GHG emissions from the MSW recycling and reutilizationactivities might be considered.

The uncertainty of the parameters should be evaluated.

38


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Thanks for your kind attention and advices~


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