Pannonian Basin Experiment (PannEx) · 2018-10-25 · Branislava Lalic University of Novi Sad...
Transcript of Pannonian Basin Experiment (PannEx) · 2018-10-25 · Branislava Lalic University of Novi Sad...
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Pannonian Basin Experiment (PannEx) GHP PANEL MEETING, 24 – 26 OCTOBER 2018
SANTIAGO, CHILE
MONIKA LAKATOS, OMSZ, HUNGARY, [email protected]
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Pannonian (Carpathian) basin HighestpeakoftheCarpathianMountains:Gerlachovskýš:t2655m(Slovakia)
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WCRPGrandChallenges-WATERFORFOODBASKETS
Howwillawarmingworldaffecttheavailablefreshwaterresourcesglobally?(Focusonthegeophysicalprocessesandtheanthropogenicinfluencesontheseprocesses)Howdoesthistranslatespecificallytothefoodbasketregionsoftheworld?
Pannonian Basin
Great Plains and Central Valley
SE Asia Rice and Wheat Regions
Climate Prediction Program for the Americas
(CPPA)
Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment
in Amazonia (LBA)
La Plata Basin (LPB)
African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis
(AMMA)
Murray-Darling Basin (MDB)
Mackenzie GEWEX Studies (MAGS)
GEWEX Asia Monsoon Experiments (GAME)
Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX)
Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership
(NEESPI)
Monsoon Asian Hydro-Atmosphere Science
Research and prediction Initiative
(MAHASRI)
New North American Water Related RHP
Latin American RHP
Baltic Earth
SE Asian RHP
Pannonian Basin
HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment
(HYMEX)
Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) -
Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB)
HYVIC
"OzEWEX"Current RHPsFormer RHPsProspective RHPs
BoramLee,2ndPannExWSBudapest
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Recent drought on the Danube, dry condiUons on the upper catchment, October 2018
source:MTI//MáthéZoltán,16thofOctober source:HuszXIstván/Index
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DriDanube project – covering PannEx area- Drought User Service
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Changing in climate extremes in the Carpathian region, 1961-2010- CarpatClim dataset
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Simpledailyintensity
h[p://www.carpatclim-eu.org/
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1stWSOsijek,11/2015
2ndWSBudapest,June2016WBfirst
drab
3rdWSCluj,March2017WB
final
1stIPCmeeXng09/2017SPfirst
drab
2ndIPCmeeXngextended06/2018Ljubljana
4thWSBudapest04/09/2018
Short History of PannEx
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Recent publicaUon-available online 26 May 2018 AndrejCeglar,Adina-ElizaCroitoru,JoanCuxart,VladimirDjurdjevic,IvanGü[ler,BrankaIvančan-Picek,DanijelJug,MónikaLakatos,TamásWeidinger:PannEx:thePannonianBasinExperiment
h[ps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/arXcle/pii/S2405880718300165
WCRPsharednewsthroughoutonline"sciencehighlight"
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FQs and Cross Cuts within PannEx CC2:Processmodelling
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Documents available 5FQSAND3CCS,72CONTRIBUTOR,FINALIZED SCIENCEANDIMPLEMENTATIONPLAN
h[ps://sites.google.com/site/projectpannex/
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White book is uploaded to the PannEx page
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Task Teams q Agro-climatologicalandbiologicalsystemsq Micrometeorologyandagronomicalprocessmodellingq Airqualityandurbanstudiesq EnergyProducXonq EcologicalServicesq Waterbalanceatthebasinscaleq Modellingfromclimatetoflashfloodsq SpecialobservaXonsanddataanalysisq OutreachandEducaXon
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Proposed activities: • IntercomparisonofNWPmodels(ALADIN/AROME,COSMO,WRF,andalsoECMWF/IFS)fortypicalweathersituaXonsofthePannonianBasinwheremodelsfacedifficulXes• E.g.:winteranXcycloniccases,summerconvecXveprecipitaXon• Startwithcasestudies(periodsperhapslater)• Usingdatafromlocalmeasurementcampaigns(e.g.PABLS)• Shortterm(in1-2years):networking,idenXfyingcasestudies,definingmethodology• Mediumterm:(in3-4years):runningcommoncasestudies,idenXfyingmodelerrors,sensiXvitystudies,recommendaXonsforimprovement,trytoapplyforfunding
Task Team: Modelling from climate to flash floods– Status of NWP part
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AROME,+14hlowcloudforecast
MSG
Possible candidate for case study: winter anUcyclonic low cloud case
OperaXonalNWPmodelstendtounderesXmatelowcloudsduringwinteranXcyclonesinthePannonianBasin
1.0
0.0
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Some past and recent acUviUes ESAcall:BLACKSEAANDDANUBEREGIONALINITIATIVE
ESAOpenInvitaXontoTenderAO9487OpenDate:06/08/2018,1stofOctober(13:00).◦ researchacXviXestoadvancetheuseofESAandnon-ESAEOmissionstowardstheachievementofmajorscienXficchallengesidenXfiedforthenextdecadeattheBlackSeafromSpaceWorkshopandbythePannExcommunity.
◦ Danube+DroughtEarlyWarning◦ 200,000eur,atleasttwopartners,2years◦ RomaniaandSloveniaareeligiblefromthePannExregion
Deadline19October2018 2submissions
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EMS Annual MeeUng: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2018
OSA2.7:PannEx:TheWaterandenergycyclesinthePannonianBasinandtheirinteracXonswithhumanacXviXes Abstract:totalaccepted27,oral15,poster12,twogranted hXps://meeZngorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2018/sessionprogramme
RegularPannExmeeZnginELU DateandXme:4September16h-19h
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Some past and recent acUviUes
o 8THGEWEXOPENSCIENCECONFERENCE:EXTREMESANDWATERONTHEEDGE,MAY6-11,2018,CANMORE,CANADA:Lakatos,M.,Weidinger,T.,Horváth,Á.,Hoffmann,L.,Bihari,Z.,SzenXmrey,T.,Cuxart-Rodamilans,J.:Computa7onofPETondailyscaletoes7matethesurfaceenergybudgetcomponentsintheregionofthePannExRHP
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Funds BilateralcallsrespondedbythePannExcommunity
TwoOngoingbilateralproject:“FirstmicrometeorologicalresearchwithintheCroaXan-HungariancollaboraXon(FIMO-CROHUN)”,partners:EötvösLorándUniversity(MeteorologicalDepartment),Budapest,HungaryandUniversityofZagreb(GeophysicalDepartment),Zagreb,CroaXa,Xmeframe:2017-2018,Serbian-Hungarian:ELUandUnivofNis
Submi[ed:
Partlycoverstheregion:EEA-NorwayGrantCall:CommonChallenges–SharedSoluXons:ProjectXtle:Coupledmeteorologicalandhydrologicalmodellinganddatasupportforreducingtheriskofflashfloods,droughts,soildegrada8onandwaterpollu8on,leader:InsXtuteforSoilSciencesandAgrochemistryHungary,NorwegianInsXtuteofBioeconomyResearch,NIBIO,Met.NO,OMSZandVarimax(Hungary);UniversityofLjubljana,UniversityofZagreb,ZagrebUniversityofAppliedSciencesLatvianUniversityofAgriculture/Latvia,TallinnUniversityofTechnology/Estonia–BalZcEarthregion
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Future plans q ThemostrecenttaskistheadverZsingofthetaskteamstoreachtherelevantexpertandinsXtuXonsintheregionandtomoXvatemembersofthecommunitytocontributetotheworkoftheTaskTeams,andtocreaXonofthenextiteraXonoftheScienceandImplementaXonPlan(SP).q Onthe4thPannExWSweagreedontheplaceanddateofthenextPannExWS,thehostwillbeBranislavaLalicUniversityofNoviSad(Serbia),theproposeddateisJune2019.q PreparaXonandsendinganofficialinvitaZonleXerforTTleadersandvice-leadersq EncouragethepresentersoftheEMS18topublishconferencepapersin'AdvancesinScienceandResearch–ContribuXonsinAppliedMeteorologyandClimatology',submissiondeadline15January2019q suggestPannEx-HyMeXandBalXcEarthcommuniXesforajoinedRHPsessionontheconferenceEMS2019Copenhagenq SearchingforfundingopXons
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ComputaUon of PET on daily scale to esUmate the surface energy budget components in the region of the PannEx RHP 8TH GEWEX OPEN SCIENCE CONFERENCE: EXTREMES AND WATER ON THE EDGE, MAY 6 - 11, 2018, CANMORE, CANADA
1 LAKATOS, M. , 2 WEIDINGER, T. , 1 HORVÁTH, Á . , 1 HOFFMANN, L . , 1 B IHARI , Z . , 1 SZENTIMREY, T. , 3 CUXART-RODAMILANS, J . 1 HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 2 DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY, EÖTVÖS LORÁND UNIVERSITY, 3 UNIVERSITY OF THE BALEARIC ISLANDS
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CarpatClim data sources NMHSs in the region
415 climate stations and 904 precipitation stations were used
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Monthly PET in CarpatClim
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Daily PET: Penman-Monteith Reference EvapotranspiraUon method 17stepsforcalculaXonsfromstandardmeteorologicaldata(CarpatClimgrid)
Dayoftheyear,laXtude,longitude,Tmin,Tmax,
windspeed,
relaXvehumidity
ETo=referenceevapotranspiraXon,mmday-1;Rn=netradiaXonatthecropsurface,MJm-2d-1;G=soilheatfluxdensity,MJm-2d-1;T=meandailyairtemperatureat2mheight,°C;u2=windspeedat2mheight,ms-1;es–ea=saturaXonvaporpressuredeficit,kPa;Δ=slopeofthevaporpressurecurve,kPaºC-1;γ =psychrometricconstant,kPa°C-1.
"#↓% = 0.408'()↓* −+)+-900/#+273 /↓2 ( 0↓1 − 0↓2 )/∆+-(1+0.34/↓2 )
Reference:Zotarelli,L.,Dukes,M.D.,Romero,C.C.,Migliaccio,K.W.,,andMorgan,K.T.,2010:StepbyStepCalculaXonofthePenman-MonteithEvapotranspiraXon(FAO-56Method),IFASExtension,UniversityofFlorida,h[p://edis.ifas.ufl.edu
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CarpatClim monthly PET
derived from daily (Penman-Monteith) PET values
July 2007 Monthly PET
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NatureParkKopačkirit,177km²inEasternCroaXa,moorland
WRF-NOAH coupled model system- Case study for 18.07.2007-22.07.2007 very hot period
Modellparameterswereused:
LH:descripXon="LATENTHEATFLUXATTHESURFACE";T2:descripXon=„TEMPat2M” Ho[estday:20.07.2007
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LH 2007-07-20_14:00:00 UTC
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T2 2007-07-20_14:00:00 UTC
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Comparison of the regional average of the modelled (WRF) and measured
(CCR: CarpatClim) values for the Kopački rit
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Conclusion and future plans
o TheCarpatClimdatasetisanappropriatedatasetforstudyingtheradiaXonandenergybudgetcomponentsondailyscaleinthePannExregiono InthisstudytheCarpatClimisextendedwithdailyPETvaluesforotherapplicaXonso toanalysethesurfaceenergybudgetcomponentsbasedontheWRF-NOAHcoupledmodelsystemo ToextendtheCarpatClimdatasetwithland-use,albedoandsoilmoisturedatatosupportthePannExacXviXeso ToesXmaXonofdailyPETwithusingactualland-coverCarpatClimdatabase
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Thank you for your kind akenUon