Panel P07 -3G to 4G: towards full mobility IP...

DDipartimentoipartimentoEElettronica lettronica

IInformazionenformazione



Panel P07 Panel P07 -- 3G to 4G: towards full 3G to 4G: towards full mobility IP servicesmobility IP services

Organizer: Organizer: Maurizio Decina Maurizio Decina (Politecnico di Milano)(Politecnico di Milano)

Panelists:Panelists:JeanJean--Pierre Bienaime Pierre Bienaime (Orange, Chairman UMTS Forum) (Orange, Chairman UMTS Forum)

Ni l J ff i Ni l J ff i (V d f n Ch i m n WWR F m) (V d f n Ch i m n WWR F m) Nigel Jefferies Nigel Jefferies (Vodafone, Chairman WWR Forum) (Vodafone, Chairman WWR Forum) Peter Meissner Peter Meissner (Operating Officer, NGMN Alliance)(Operating Officer, NGMN Alliance)

Luis M. Correia Luis M. Correia (Technical University Lisbon)(Technical University Lisbon)Luis M. Correia Luis M. Correia (Technical University Lisbon)(Technical University Lisbon)Adam Wolisz Adam Wolisz (Technical University Berlin)(Technical University Berlin)

ICC 2009, Dresden, 17 June 2009ICC 2009, Dresden, 17 June 2009


IInformazionenformazioneThe Internet of the FutureThe Internet of the Future

Source DFKI, 2007

Web Web ServicesServicesSocial NetworksSocial NetworksSocial NetworksSocial NetworksInternet of Things (M2M)Internet of Things (M2M)SemanticSemantic Web Web

©2009 DEI©2009 DEI––Politecnico di MilanoPolitecnico di Milano Maurizio Dècina, Panel 3GMaurizio Dècina, Panel 3G--4G, ICC'09, Dresden, June 20094G, ICC'09, Dresden, June 2009-- 22 --


IInformazionenformazioneInternet of Things & Internet of Things &

ContextContext AwareAware ApplicationsApplicationsContextContext--AwareAware ApplicationsApplications

WirelessSensingWirelessSensing Location

M tLocation

M tD tD t D tD tLocation Aggregation

VisonSensingVison

SensingRFID SensingRFID Sensing

ManagementService

ManagementService

DataAssociation

DataAssociation

DataFusionDataFusion

DataAssociation

DataAssociation

DataFusionDataFusion

SensingSensingPressure Sensing

Pressure Sensing

TemperatureSensing

TemperatureSensing

ContextManagement

Service

ContextManagement

Service

Context Aggregation


gg


IInformazionenformazioneFiberFiber Communications Towards Communications Towards

10 Gbit/s10 Gbit/sRadio Access Network Backhauling

10 Gbit/s10 Gbit/sg

802.11802.16LTE



IInformazionenformazioneWireless Wireless CommunicationsCommunications

TowardsTowards 1 Gbit/s1 Gbit/sTowardsTowards 1 Gbit/s1 Gbit/s

UltraWideBandUltraWideBand802.15.3802.15.3BluetoothBluetooth

802.15.1802.15.1ZigBeeZigBee

802.15.4802.15.4CABLECABLE

REPLACEMENTREPLACEMENT WPANWPAN

HOME, OFFICEHOME, OFFICEPUBLIC ACCESSPUBLIC ACCESS

gege

WLANWLAN WiWi--FiFi802.11b802.11b 802.11a/g/n/ac/ad 802.11a/g/n/ac/ad

LIMITE

LIMITEM

oM

o

CITY,CITY,SUBURBSSUBURBS

COUNTRYCOUNTRY

Rang

Rang WMANWMAN WiMAXWiMAX

802.16a/e/m802.16a/e/m

EDED obilityobility

UMTSUMTSEDGEEDGEGPRSGPRSGSMGSMCOUNTRY,COUNTRY,

REGIONREGIONWIDEWIDE

EDEDEDEDWANWAN

FULL

FULLLTE/LTELTE/LTE--AAHSPAHSPA

10 kbit/s10 kbit/s 100 kbit/s100 kbit/s 1 Mbit/s1 Mbit/s 10 Mbit/s10 Mbit/s 100 Mbit/s100 Mbit/s 1 Gbit/s1 Gbit/s1 kbit/s1 kbit/s

Bit RateBit Rate


Source: Dècina, 2008


IInformazionenformazioneFixedFixed & & MobileTrafficMobileTraffic GrowthGrowth

5 bn people connectedby 2015

• Mobile complexity grows• Broadband is going to be

bi itby 2015 ubiquitous• Internet of things

Source: NSN, 2009

©2009 DEI©2009 DEI––Politecnico di MilanoPolitecnico di Milano -- 66 -- Maurizio Dècina, Panel 3GMaurizio Dècina, Panel 3G--4G, ICC'09, Dresden, June 20094G, ICC'09, Dresden, June 2009


IInformazionenformazioneMobile Internet Traffic GrowthMobile Internet Traffic Growth

2,500,000131% CAGR 2008 - 2013

66 fold growth between 2008 and 2013

2,000,000

TB/m

o DataP2PVideoAudio

1,500,000Audio

500,000

1,000,000

0

500,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

A 1 GB/month data user consumes the same backhaul bandwidth as 36 voice users (250 MoU)

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2008-2013( )



IInformazionenformazioneApplicationApplication storestore approachapproach

All smartphone vendors have deployed a virtual shop for applications

Single point of contact between SW developers and users Single point of contact between SW developers and users

Normal revenue splitting: 30% Smartphone supplier, 70% SW developer.



IInformazionenformazioneMobile Mobile Operator Operator ChallengesChallengespp ggDelivering 66 fold increase in capacity

A il bl M1000

Average

Available MacroCapacity

100

Grow

th

AverageMacro CellEfficiency

10

G

Available Spectrum

11990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Future Networks supporting the Mobile Internet will need to l l i t t l t ll ll

1990 1995 2000 2005 5Source: Agilent, 2008

seamlessly integrate a lot more smaller cells©2009 DEI©2009 DEI––Politecnico di MilanoPolitecnico di Milano -- 99 -- Maurizio Dècina, Panel 3GMaurizio Dècina, Panel 3G--4G, ICC'09, Dresden, June 20094G, ICC'09, Dresden, June 2009


IInformazionenformazioneSpectrumSpectrum beyondbeyond 20122012pp yy

3G (1 9 GH )High

Frequency Propagation Current apps

3G (1.9 GHz)~ 160 M€/MHz

WiMax (3 5 GHz)ANALOGUE TV

FM Radio

Digital SpectrumDividend

EU 790 862 MH ?

WiMax (3.5 GHz)~ 70 k€/MHz

Analogue TV (800 EU 790-862 MHz?Analogue TV (800 MHz)

~ 80 M€/MHz? refarming

refarmingAverage Licensing Fees in

IMT-20002,690 Mhz

Europe (FR-I-ES-DE-UK)

ISM

LowSource: Dècina 2008


LowSource: Dècina, 2008


IInformazionenformazioneCarrierCarrier Ethernet Mobile Ethernet Mobile

BackhaulBackhaulBackhaulBackhaul

Parameter Mobile specifications

MEF specifications

TDM specifications

Delay < 5 ms <25 ms <100 msJitter 1 ms < 10 ms <3.2 ms

Availability 99.999% < 5.3 min./year

99.95%< 263 min./year

99.999% < 5.3 min./year

Current performance objectives in Ethernet & TDM/Mobile Networks



IInformazionenformazione3G/HSDPA 3G/HSDPA FemtocellsFemtocells

3G/HSPA Macro

• The broadband access lines used for Femtocells backhauling

What?

Macro Network

for Femtocells backhauling enable a strong capacity increase (per surface unit) of the mobile network

• It is possible to assign a “dedicated cell” to each user‐ Femtocells 3G/HSPA

• Low investments in Opex and C f b kh li

Why?

DSL & FTTxDSL & FTTx

Capex for backhauling• Improved efficiency in the

bandwidth useLower client acquirement costsDSL & FTTx

Access NetworkInternet Femtocell

• Lower client acquirement costs• Churn reduction• Integration with fixed-network

services (like HDTV)services (like HDTV)






Panel P07 Panel P07 -- 3G to 4G: towards full 3G to 4G: towards full mobility IP servicesmobility IP services

Organizer: Organizer: Maurizio Decina Maurizio Decina (Politecnico di Milano)(Politecnico di Milano)

Panelists:Panelists:JeanJean--Pierre Bienaime Pierre Bienaime (Orange, Chairman UMTS Forum) (Orange, Chairman UMTS Forum)

Ni l J ff i Ni l J ff i (V d f n Ch i m n WWR F m) (V d f n Ch i m n WWR F m) Nigel Jefferies Nigel Jefferies (Vodafone, Chairman WWR Forum) (Vodafone, Chairman WWR Forum) Peter Meissner Peter Meissner (Operating Officer, NGMN Alliance)(Operating Officer, NGMN Alliance)

Luis M. Correia Luis M. Correia (Technical University Lisbon)(Technical University Lisbon)Luis M. Correia Luis M. Correia (Technical University Lisbon)(Technical University Lisbon)Adam Wolisz Adam Wolisz (Technical University Berlin)(Technical University Berlin)

ICC 2009, Dresden, 17 June 2009ICC 2009, Dresden, 17 June 2009

LTE Mobile Broadband Ecosystem: the Global Opportunity

UMTS F R t #42UMTS Forum Report #42

Jean Pierre BienaiméJean-Pierre BienaiméChairman, UMTS Forum

ICC2009, Dresden17 June 2009

UMTS Forum 2009 key focus areasy


3G/UMTS mobile broadband: a global mass market3G/UMTS mobile broadband: a global mass market

• Almost 500m 3G subscribers (UMTS + EVDO) worldwide• Almost 500m 3G subscribers (UMTS + EVDO) worldwide

• Around 380m UMTS/WCDMA subs, including approx. 130m HSPA subs

• Over 3 times as many UMTS/WCDMA subscribers as CDMA2000 EV-DO

• Over 280 WCDMA networks in 115+ countries (inc. 135+ in Europe)...

• ...and around 260+ HSDPA networks in 100+ countries

• Over 75 HSUPA networks launched, plus 130 operator commitments , p p

• Over 1100 3G/UMTS/HSDPA devices


IntroductionWhat is Long Term Evolution/System Architecture Evolution (LTE)?• an evolution of the current 3GPP 3G wireless network standards encompassing thean evolution of the current 3GPP 3G wireless network standards, encompassing the core network, radio assess network and services architecture

Why is it important?d i d f ll IP ffi• designed for all-IP traffic

• supports a flatter network architecture with reduced RNC layer• more cost effective network - reduced long term capex and opex• flexible channel bandwidth requirementflexible channel bandwidth requirement • enables higher performance, lower latency services • wide industry support to build the essential evolving ecosystem • natural evolution path from UMTS (WCDMA and HSPA/ HSPA+)

t d bl th f d i b i d l• supports and enables the emergence of dynamic new business models• LTE will dominate the global market for mobile broadband in the next few years.

The report explores key parameters and success factors, the level of readiness of the industry, and provides recommendations for successful LTE deployment


The scope of the ecosystem• LTE will be characterised by a complex, healthy ecosystem developed by a collaborative industry• LTE will see the emergence of dynamic new business models not hitherto

p y

• LTE will see the emergence of dynamic new business models not hitherto experienced in the mobile space

Business and general consumer marketsMomentum group

Enterprise VPN

Vertical-specific applications

Rich voice, VoIP. cct switch support

Media access and internet TV

Foundation group

Operators

Standards bodies

Enabler group

Internet-based applications

Home / consumer electronics

Gaming

Broadcast mobile TV

User device vendors

Infrastructure suppliers

Service / content providers

Regulator

Industry bodies

Transport and logistics

Machine to machine apps

Improved mobile broadband

Complements existing services

Chipset manufacturers

App’ns software developers

Test equipment manufacturers

The ecosystem will support new vertical and horizontal markets


The breadth and depth of the ecosystem• Non-voice mobile services will be increasingly important:

• Evolution from ‘traditional’ mobile network ecosystem to incorporate internet applications, new services devices and content delivery mechanisms

p y

new services, devices and content delivery mechanisms• Wider and deeper ecosystem than for any previous mobile technology

• Complexity and size brings challenge for LTE: relationships and dependencies which have to work effectively for the full opportunities for LTE to be realisedy pp

The ecosystem for each mobile generation has increased in breadth and scope


LTE: enabled services• Mobile data applications will drive LTE • Voice will remain the leading revenue generator for some time – but solutions for the handling voice

services over LTE are under consideration and in trial and will depend on operators’ strategies to p p gretain and protect current voice revenues

• Video services will enjoy the greatest benefits from LTE, but faces competition

20%

40%

60%

80%

20%

40%

60%

80%

from Wi-Fi access, which in turn will also influence the operator strategy for in-building and hot-spot femtocelldeployment.

0%

20%

TV device 63% 58% 33% 32% 27% 17% 10%

Hollywoodfilm

TVprogramme

Sport Homemovie

Musicvideo

Adult Short clips

0%

20%

TV device 63% 58% 33% 32% 27% 17% 10%

Hollywoodfilm

TVprogramme

Sport Homemovie

Musicvideo

Adult Short clips

• Real time/ interactive services: Network storage will become a commodity; social networking and mobile gaming will become more popular.

PC 47% 43% 27% 28% 32% 19% 18%

PMP 17% 16% 11% 10% 20% 6% 9%

Mobile phone 9% 13% 11% 7% 15% 5% 9%

PC 47% 43% 27% 28% 32% 19% 18%

PMP 17% 16% 11% 10% 20% 6% 9%

Mobile phone 9% 13% 11% 7% 15% 5% 9%

Video Content and devices preferences Source: Ovum

• Location based services will raise the possibility of new business models that can alleviate the ARPU decline.

• Machine to machine traffic is not foreseen to be a driver for LTE launch, but is perceived as a long-term strategic market opportunity for LTE

p p

Many existing services will be enhanced by LTE; plus new service opportunities

term strategic market opportunity for LTE.


LTE: options for voicep• Multi-mode devices continue to have in-built 2G and 3G RAN capability

– necessary capability in devices to allow roaming and coverage until LTE is the norm– will require sustainment of these networks, with consequent opex and capex implicationswill require sustainment of these networks, with consequent opex and capex implications

• Voice over LTE via generic access - VoLGA Forum - specifications for enabling delivery of voice services over LTE access networks

– good for LTE network operators with GSM or UMTS networks– mobile voice and messaging services over LTE access networks; – VoIP voice calls and SMS data originated over the LTE radio interface routed and handled by

associated GSM or UMTS core networks. – allows GSM network (and, in time, the UMTS network) to be gradually run down as users ( , , ) g y

migrate to LTE networks, enabling operators to benefit from earlier opex cost savings• Other technical solutions can be foreseen, such as Circuit Switched Fallback (a voice

call handed over from the LTE network to the 2G or 3G network) or Voice over IMSV IP b db d ( t i l d d i th LTE t d d )• VoIP over broadband (support included in the LTE standards)

– operator’s decision whether or not to implement or allow VoIP on its LTE network. – but voice is still major revenue generator for operators and service providers– push for internet-based VoIP will come from those LTE operators which do not have

Recommendations to be finalised within the 3GPP

p pcomplementary 2G or 3G networks and from third party VoIP services, such as Skype.


LTE: video services• LTE high capacity, high speed and low latency network supports video

- capabilities are already being embedded in HSPA personal media players and video handset devices, priming the LTE market, which will encourage the LTE market

• Streaming video services - cache and play - minimises the impact of a poor network connection, as do some IPTV with download to local drive. Increasingly popular for mobile broadband users.• Live video service requires high network speed and low latency and users expect• Live video service requires high network speed and low latency and users expect performance.

- because of the bandwidth required operators prefer to offer live video as a broadcast service• Mobile-TV will include both streaming and live video servicesg

- no major demand currently, but end user survey indicates latent demand- success of mobile-TV will depend on the operator’s business model with content providers- mobile broadcasting technology (e.g. MediaFlo, DVB-H, DVB-SH, MBMS, IMB [Integrated Mobile Broadcast] ) will depend on region and is still to find real traction May require aMobile Broadcast],...) will depend on region – and is still to find real traction. May require a dedicated overlay network, but the business case is challenging. - Unicast and internet-based TV and media will become extremely popular, stimulated by user expectations of fixed network broadband internet access over HSPA, HSPA+ and LTE.

Vid i bil d i ith Wi Fi t bli h d i kl i 2007 O f d• Video access via mobile device with Wi-Fi established quickly since 2007. Ovum found that 89% of users who use their mobile phone to access online video did so using their mobile network, and 20% accessed the service via a Wi-Fi connection.


Other LTE enabled services• Internet / Web 2.0: Corporate VPN access; content formatted for mobile broadband; transaction services; personalised content; targeted marketing • Navigation: Location-based content; presence/location information*; location-based push-marketing; in-transit travel updates; fleet monitoring*; logistics control*; health and safety (driving time)*; public transport – in fleet services*; road tolling*; emergency service command and controlservice command and control • Utilities: Live relay*; telemetry*• Financial: Online banking; integrated NFC; transaction services• Health: Clinical records; remote diagnostics and monitoring; national and internationalHealth: Clinical records; remote diagnostics and monitoring; national and international coverage• Journalism: high speed/ low latency news gathering – on site reports• Storage, security and control: field workforce backup; security/CCTV (HD); store and g , y p; y ( );forward video• Other: remote office working; push to talk – voice and video; remote polling

•* Machine to machine applications


LTE roadmapsp• Chipsets: Initial focus on dual mode LTE/HSPA+ or LTE/EVDO; data-only; 2x2 MIMO; FDD (2008); TDD (2009); standard-compliant in 2010

D i I iti l f d t l (USB d t d) b dd d (l t t b k• Devices: Initial focus on data-only (USB, datacard); embedded (laptops, notebooks, PDAs…) (2010); handhelds (2011-12); consumer electronics (later)• Infrastructure: Demos (2008), Trials (2009), Commercial (2010…)


Drivers for LTE

• Mobile data usage growth - iPhone and similar • Network efficiency: spectral efficiency and cost per bit• Network efficiency: spectral efficiency and cost per bit• Improved user experience: lower latency and higher

throughputs• Operator support Lots of operators have madeOperator support. Lots of operators have made

commitments during 2008 and 2009• Multi-access Evolved Packet Core (EPC)• Vendor community support

Compelling support fory pp

• Clear standards roadmap through 3GPP Rel 8 to Rel 9 • Regulation and availability of new spectrum• Industry alignment and strong momentum - NGMN

support for LTE

y g gand LSTI

• Business model evolution and new revenue sources• New services and web-based applications – greater

video orientation.


Barriers and risks for LTE

• Economic downturn and uncertainty of investment $s will impact the ecosystem speed and depthimpact the ecosystem speed and depth

• Investment cost vs sustaining legacy technology influence operator LTE rollout plans

• Network transition plans vary, impacting volume production economies

• End-user device availability. Initial device focus will be USB dongles, mass market devices will come later

• IPR effects on dual and multi-mode devices

Challenges need attention, but are being

IPR effects on dual and multi mode devices• Early chipset / device compatibilities issues (pre-standard

equipment)• Standardisation in 3GPP Rel 9 to be completed

addressed: no insurmountable

LTE barriers• Some interoperability of standards issues• Regulation uncertainties: roaming difficulties if spectrum is not

aligned among different regions• Security and privacy in IP networksSecurity and privacy in IP networks.• There will always be new disruptive technologies


Service requirements vary by marketq y y• National market needs (as well as more narrow segments) will need to be understood by device vendors, application developer and service providers – there is not a homogeneous world markethomogeneous world market

8

Relative preference level

8

Relative preference level

• General Internet services: email; web browsing; search; blogs and social n/w

6

7

6

7

• Media services: music and video streaming; mobile TV and video calls

4

5

4

5

• New/other services: online shopping; gaming, betting and gambling; business use 2

3

l i h2

3

l i hgambling; business use (e.g. VPN)

France Germany Italy Spain UK Japan SouthKorea

US

General Internet services Media services New / Other services Future increase


US

General Internet servicesGeneral Internet services Media servicesMedia services New / Other servicesNew / Other services Future increaseFuture increase

Source: Ovum Derived from report end-user survey


End user survey: no killer appy pp• National market needs (as well as more narrow segments) will need to be understood by device vendors, application developer and service providers – there is not a homogeneous world markethomogeneous world market

• With an improved mobile broadband experience end

General online browsing

Information searching

Email

General online browsing

Information searching

Email

broadband experience, end users expect to:– to do more of the same– use mobile bb as they do their fixed

serviceMusic downloading

Music streaming

Online shopping

Social networking

Music downloading

Music streaming

Online shopping

Social networking

service– take advantage of the provision of

their SP’s applications an services

• Mobile TV, video-calls and video downloading are the

Online gaming

Video downloading

Business use (e.g. VPN)

Video streaming

Online gaming

Video downloading

Business use (e.g. VPN)

Video streaming

video downloading are the top 3 services with the highest growth – all bandwidth demanding will Online betting / gambling

Mobile blogging

Video call

Mobile TV

Online betting / gambling

Mobile blogging

Video call

Mobile TV

increase

Source: Ovum

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Current preferred level Expected future increase Relative preference l2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Current preferred level Expected future increase Relative preference l


End user interest in mobility servicesy

Relative preference levelRelative preference level

Strong interest:Real time data back p e g

7

8

7

8

• Real-time data backup: e.g. upload photos/videos

• Real-time information update: e g traffic update

66

update: e.g. traffic update on GPS navigation devices,

• Mobile e-commerce: e.g. mobile cash point and

55

mobile payments4


US

Real-time data backup Real-time information update Mobile e-commerce

4France Germany Italy Spain UK Japan South

KoreaUS

Real-time data backup Real-time information update Mobile e-commerce

Source: Ovum Interest in new services and applications, by country


End user preference for LTE enabled devicesp

Laptop

• Laptops (including netbooks) are

Di it l

Car

GPS navigation device

Laptop

understandably top priority• GPS navigation devices, in-

car systems (e.g. traffic update or information

Digital billboard

Desktop PC

Digital camera

update or information update) indicates opportunity for transport related services Home entertainment device

Mobile TV device

Cam recorder

• TV-specific devices scored quite low

Home gaming console

Handheld gaming console

Online connected photo frame

Source: Ovum5 6 7 8


End user mixed device preferencepPreferences for embedded mobile gaming

15%5% Depends on other factors 15%5% Depends on other factors 11% No need for a netbook device

Preferences for mobile netbook device

28%

51%

Game console without mobilebroadband

Game console with mobilebroadband

Cellular phone 28%

51%

Game console without mobilebroadband

Game console with mobilebroadband

Cellular phone 54%

35%

Separate mobile phone/device andnetbook device

All-in-one phone/device which may28%

Total

*Other factors include game type and user location

28%

Total

*Other factors include game type and user location

Total

p ybe used as a netbook

Preference for separate mobile phone and video/music device

12%7%

1% Choice depends on other factors12%7%

1% Choice depends on other factors

Preference for mobile TV capability

20%1% Choice depends on other factors 20%1% Choice depends on other factors

54%

25%Separate mobile phone and video/music devicewithout mobile broadband support No need for a mobile video/music device

Separate mobile phone and video/music devicewith mobile broadband support

54%

25%Separate mobile phone and video/music devicewithout mobile broadband support No need for a mobile video/music device

Separate mobile phone and video/music devicewith mobile broadband support 49%

30% No need for a mobile TV device

Preference to have separate mobile phone and TVdevices

Preference to watch mobile TV on all in one49%

30% No need for a mobile TV device

Preference to have separate mobile phone and TVdevices

Preference to watch mobile TV on all in one

Total

with mobile broadband support All-in-one device with embedded video/music

*Other factors include user location

Total

with mobile broadband support All-in-one device with embedded video/music

*Other factors include user location

Total

Preference to watch mobile TV on all-in-onephone/device

*Other factors include device size, large and clear screen and user locationTotal

Preference to watch mobile TV on all-in-onephone/device

*Other factors include device size, large and clear screen and user location


Source: Ovum

Speed of end user transition

• Strong latent need for mobile broadband will stimulate interest at ll l l f th l h i i t id t

p

all levels of the value chain encouraging to rapid ecosystem development

• Could lead to in-building coverage, e.g. with LTE femtocells; metro g g gfemtocells; UMA devices

• Of current and active 3G users:28% currently use mobile broadband exclusively as their• 28% currently use mobile broadband exclusively as their consumer broadband service

• … this will rise to 43% within 1 year after LTE introduction • … and to 51% within 3 years after LTE introduction

• Other users will use both fixed and mobile broadband services

Adoption of higher speed broadband is seen as a compelling option


Regional deployment strategies will vary (1) • USA: Verizon Wireless and AT&T, have declared their support of LTE. Both hold

nationwide 700 MHz spectrum allowing wider area coverage outside major cities, and deployment of LTE on existing sites as an overlay mobile broadband network.

g p y g y ( )

deployment of LTE on existing sites as an overlay mobile broadband network. The first commercial deployment planned for 2H 2010.

• Western Europe: the largest GSM/UMTS market in the world – LTE provides a natural upgrade path for operators.pg p pComplex spectrum situation, with auctions for 2.6 GHz spectrum, the allocation of the digital dividend spectrum, and spectrum re-farming (e.g. 900 MHz ) will all impact LTE.Sweden and Norway have awarded 2.6 GHz spectrum (may be used for LTE) and y p ( y )Finland award frequencies in the 1800 MHz for LTE networks. Other countries’ decisions on award timing and spectrum alignment plans will determine the roll out speed and scale of developing LTE networks.Fi t i l LTE d l t i th i t d i 2010 T li S iFirst commercial LTE deployments in the region are expected in 2010: TeliaSonera in Oslo and Stockholm; Tele2 and Telenor plan to build a joint LTE network in Sweden, with commercial launch “end of 2010, or when compatible mobile devices come on the market”.market .Other operators will follow and LTE networks will spread across Western Europe during 2011–12.


Regional deployment strategies will vary (2) • China: China Mobile (to deploy TD-SCDMA, the Chinese 3G standard), China Telecom (CDMA2000)

and China Unicom (WCDMA) are all deploying 3G. China Mobile actively involved in LTE trials with pre commercial LTE TDD network in China covering

g p y g y ( )

China Mobile actively involved in LTE trials with pre-commercial LTE-TDD network in China covering multiple major cities from the Q2 2010, but commercial availability not announced. China Telecom is expected to choose LTE FDD as a future technologyChinese operators will have a significant advantage in that they are able to plan their LTE network as p g g y pthey deploy their 3G networks, which could allow LTE in China to be rolled out very quickly, with the 2.3 GHz TDD band being the initial focus.

• Japan: NTT DoCoMo is a very active and has chosen LTE for its network upgrade strategy, which will start in 2010 using existing 3G spectrum bands for LTE (2.1 GHz FDD) g g p ( )Roll out speed will be determined demand for high speed data services in Japan (as demonstrated when NTT DoCoMo rapidly rolled out its HSPA network nationwide). NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, Softbank and eMobile have all expressed interest in LTE, and KDDI and Softbank Mobile having announced that they would deploy LTE in late 2010 or early 2011Softbank Mobile having announced that they would deploy LTE in late 2010 or early 2011.

• Korea: LTE faces competition from WiMAX (WiBro) which was launched in South Korea in 2006 and the main Korean operators are expected to continue to expand their WiMAX investments with backing from the Korean governmentAlthough no clear roadmap which shows a preference for LTE, it is expected that both WiMAX and LTE will be deployed in South Korea, with the first commercial LTE deployment in South Korea is expected in 2011.


Recommendations (1) The whole industry• Focus on interoperability between pre-standard networks and devices for early

d t

( )

adopters. • Consider high profile targets for some early deployments. E.g. 2012 Olympics

in London • Assess the wide implications of IPR licensing beyond the scope of LTE. • Be aware that country and regional requirements will vary considerablyOperators• Need to commit realistically to their LTE/SAE rollout strategies to encourage

volumes of scale• Identify the long term business case, which the lower operating costs of y g , p g

LTE/SAE and business transformation opportunities will support• Focus on the user mobile broadband quality of experience (No killer

applications for LTE). pp )

The industry has learned lessons from the challenges of 3G introduction


Recommendations (2) Systems vendors• Partnerships to develop system-level ecosystems helps bring products to market and to

ride the economic climate

( )

ride the economic climate.• Develop / support high level business cases with customised scenarios to demonstrate

the advantages of LTE/SAE (e.g. evolution from all stages of the 3GPP/UMTS family, as well as leap-frog scenarios, missing HSPA/HSPA+).

D i dDevice vendors• Touch screen, high functionality devices to access services. • Ensure that their in-house capabilities or partnerships can deliver flexible new products

with short lead times.with short lead times.Governments and Regulators• Regulators need to coordinate and align the release of spectrum for LTE, fundamental

factor to support international roaming and create economies of scale.• Governments and regulators should consider the national economic benefits of wide-

scale LTE/SAE deployment , providing broadband services into areas poorly served by fixed networks, and balance these benefits against the fees expected from spectrum auction or allocation.

Considerable commitment and coordination across the industry with most leading mobile operators planning to deploy LTE


Thank you

www.umts-forum.org


Next Generation Mobile Networks -Opport nities and ChallengesOpportunities and Challenges

Dr. Peter MeissnerOperating Officer, NGMN Alliance

ICC 2009, Panel P07“3G to 4G – towards full mobility IP services”

Dresden, 17.6.2009

Mobile Data Usage is already rapidly i iincreasing

World-wide 3G Penetration Growth Data traffic increase tenfold within 12 month

Tenfold year-on-year y yWCDMA/HSPA increase in 2007

39% data revenue growth from 2008 to 2009

iPhone Data Usage (E )

HSPA traffic growth up to 8x over last 12 month

290% traffic volume increase140% revenue increase200%

Devices drive data adoption – iPhone, Android subscribers with >15x times more data usage

St th f d t d b dd d

(Europe)

100%

200%

affic

1)

Strong growth for data cards, embedded laptop devices expected (35 Mio. units shipped world-wide in 2008)

Challenge for existing networks to cope with20%

100%

Dat

a tra

Average handset data usage

Challenge for existing networks to cope with rising data traffic – cost, capacity, coverage

Source: Oliver Wyman 2008, Motorola, Juniper, T-Mobile, ABI, NGMN 1) in MB normalized to iPhone 2G usage2

Nokia N95(HSPA)

iPhone (EDGE)

iPhone 3G (HSPA)

…but key Challenges for a successful Introduction exist

Mobile operator

Traffic and Revenue Challenge Key Requirements

Voice Dominant

TrafficMobile operatorrevenue & trafficde-coupled

User Experience Development of key enablers for mass market successmass market success

Devices & Applications Utilization of all assets to generate

Revenues

Data Dominant “Flat Rates”

Utilization of all assets to generate additional revenues

Network ArchitectureData Dominant Flat Rates

Time

Network Architecture Significant reduction of cost per bit

3

Broadband provides new Revenue O t itiOpportunities

Entertainment Enterprise Applications Location Services

Mobile ConferencingSearch Engines with Location Information – Geo-Tagging

Advertising

Games

Communities, Social NetworkingUnified Communications

Secure Data Access

Downloads

gg gTraffic Information

Personal Navigation

Near Field CommunicationAdvertising Downloads Near Field Communication

Mobile Web Advertising Music, Video download

S ft G d t A li ti

E-Tickets e.g. for Trains, Planes

Payment authenticated by UserPotentially targeted or Location-based Advertising

Software Gadgets, Applications Payment authenticated by User SIM Card

4

New Devices and Chipsets emergep gpm

ent

Bluetooth® + FM

Integration of logic, SRAM, analog/PM

and RF Cost Reduction

set D

evel

op

Wireless LAN

Bluetooth FM Single Chip

Size and Power Reduction

Chi

ps GPS Single Chip

eCosto™ Single ChipMulti-radio Integration

lopm

ent

vice

Dev

elD

e

Source: TI, NGMN 5

Convergence of Wireless Technologies iti S l Eff tensures positive Scale Effects

Convergence of WirelessTechnologies

Scale Effects

Larger economies of scaleUMB

Better global roaming support3GPP

LTE/SAE HSPA

UMB

More flexible spectrum usage

IEEE 802.16e

IMT -Advanced

IEEE802.16m

Reduced chipset complexity

More flexible spectrum usage

Reduced standardization complexityEV-DO

6

Next Generation Technologies enable a Step Change in Cost/Performance Ratio p gand User Experience

> 100* 220RTT Latency in ms

True Broadband Super Quick Lower Cost/BitPeak DL in Mbit/s

> 100

14 4

185

14060

220

NGMNEDGE

0.2

UMTS

0.4

HSxPA

14.4

GPRS

< 0.1

60

< 20

NGMNEDGE UMTS HSxPAGPRS NGMNEDGE UMTS HSxPAGPRSNGMNEDGE UMTS HSxPAGPRS NGMNEDGE UMTS HSxPAGPRS NGMNEDGE UMTS HSxPAG S

High throughput to accelerate Internet Access (e.g. download of Emails, Music, Video, Information)

d t bl Vid T l h

Low latency to enable games, interactive multimedia services, web-browsing

Simplified architecture, higher spectral efficiency, asset-reuse to provide a lean cost b f i d li

*) with 20MHz Channel Bandwidth

and to enable Video Telephony, Multi Media Broadband

base for service delivery

7

NGMN Alliance – an Introduction

Goals NGMN Alliance Characteristics NGMN Alliance

Articulates requirements for future mobile BB networks, services & devicesIs business driven with a strong focus on end-to-end requirements

Articulates requirements for future mobile BB networks, services & devicesIs business driven with a strong focus on end-to-end requirements

Attractive Services, Applications, Devices on end to end requirements

Drives customer & service centric innovationMinimises fragmentation of technologies

on end to end requirementsDrives customer & service centric innovationMinimises fragmentation of technologies Viable Ecosystem –& maximises economies of scalePromotes the adoption of next generation technologies by the industryCollates and ses the e perience and

& maximises economies of scalePromotes the adoption of next generation technologies by the industryCollates and ses the e perience and

Spectrum, IPR, Operational Efficiency

Collates and uses the experience and expertise of its partners to develop a viable ecosystemDoes not develop standards!

Collates and uses the experience and expertise of its partners to develop a viable ecosystemDoes not develop standards!

Next Generation Technology Roadmap

8

Global PartnershipG oba a t e s p

Members: 19 worldwide leading mobile operators

More than 50% of

S 35 ld id l di t h l d

world wide subscribers

Sponsors: 35 worldwide leading technology vendors

More than 90% f90% of

worldwide equipment

Advisors: 3 universities / research institutesAdvisors: 3 universities / research institutes

9Status:5.5.2009

Major Milestones have been reached…Major Milestones have been reached…

Operator requirements (NGMN White Paper) accepted by all NGMN partnersFlat Architecture of All-IP Network accepted by Standards BodiesTechnology evaluation and Gap analysis performedol

ogy

Technology evaluation and Gap analysis performedLTE /SAE approved as first technology which broadly meets NGMN requirementsTrial framework established – system performance shown in drive tests

Tech

no

IPR transparency achieved on LTE/SAE and WimaxNGMN Spectrum requirements went into ITU WRC-07 & prepared for WRC-11m

erci

als

Exceptional user experience as key requirement postulateds

Co-operations established with key industry fora

Com

Exceptional user experience as key requirement postulatedInitial device requirements (Frequency bands, Legacy Standards) consolidatedKey barriers and enablers for a viable ecosystem identified – e.g. open interfaces for developers, devices for consumer electronics, …C

usto

mer

s

10

…but major Challenges still exists, dd d b W k P !addressed by our Work Programme!

Offering Voice Service (and not only data)Spectrum availability, refarming, auctioningD i f L h ( lti l f b d lti l lDevices for Launch (multiple frequency bands, multiple legacy technologies)Efficient and effective Device Certification RegimeE2E Security Provisions Converged Standard for FDD and TDDInterworking and Interoperating TestingInterworking and Interoperating TestingDeployment strategy, Migration PathOperational Efficiency:

O I t fOpen InterfacesSelf-Optimising Networks Efficient Backhaul SolutionsI t ti f F t C ll f i d (h & ffi ) l tiIntegration of Femto Cells for indoor (home & office) solutions

11

NGMN Roadmap p

2008 2009 20102008 2009 2010Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Deployment and launch d d t O t

NGMN launch -

Technology evaluation and

First trials

Standards ready

Infrastructure & Devices

Inter-operability dependent on Operator

and Country specificslaunch phase

evaluation and Gap Analysis

trials ready & Devices ready for testing

operability tests

12

NGMN Work Focus

Focus on …

Service Delivery vice

stio

ns

Focus on …

Operational Efficiency

NGMN White Paper

Spectrum

Devices

yPlatforms

hnol

ogy

/ da

rds

atio

ns/S

erv

/ App

licat

Interfaces for DevelopersCertification

Efficiency

Technology Evaluation

Spectrum Trials, TestingTe

chSt

an

Ope

ra

IPRRoaming

1. NGMN Industry

Conference

CeBIT (NGMN press conference on

spectrum demand)

2. NGMN Industry

Conference

MWC, CTIA, BBWF Paris,

ITU

3. NGMN Industry

Conference

13

20072006 20102008 2009

Summaryy

User Demand for mobile broadband is growing towards mass adoption

Cost and Revenue Challenge for operators to create a successful business out of mobile broadband offeringsof mobile broadband offerings

Future technologies create a Platform for Innovation and will provide a significant step change in Cost/Performance Ratio and User Experience

Several major network operators have already decided for LTE/SAE Standard

New Chipsets will conquer the mass market of Consumer Electronics

An excellent User Experience for mobile broadband internet access

Substantially improved Usability of Devices and Applications

Favourable Royalty Rates and transparent IPR T’s and C’s

Allocation of sufficient Spectrum for capacity and coverage reasons

Key Success Factors

A business enabling Regulatory Environment14

Thank you very much

Towards Applications and Services

i 4Gin 4G

Luis M. Correia

Instituto Superior Técnico/Instituto Telecomunicações

1Technical University of Lisbon, Portugal

Which objectives?Which objectives?• The Olympic Games motto• The Olympic Games motto

applied to current systems (i.e., more of the same but justmore of the same, but just better), is a too shortfall goal. Citius

Altius• In order for Europe to keep

playing a major role in mobile

AltiusFortius

(Fasterplaying a major role in mobile & wireless, one should have a disruptive view of the future

(FasterHigher

Stronger)disruptive view of the future.

• eMobility’s SET concept has Simplicity

2

• eMobility s SET concept has to be taken into consideration!

Simplicity, Efficiency

Trust

Learning from PCs (1)Learning from PCs (1)• Mainframes dominated until• Mainframes dominated, until

PCs took over when computers were extended tocomputers were extended to the mass market. (IBM, 1972)

(Apple, 1986)

• An operating system based on windows had a crucialon windows had a crucial importance in the spread of PCs

(Wikipedia, 1972)

(Mi f 2007)PCs.

• Easiness of use is essential

(Microsoft, 2007)

3

• Easiness of use is essential for the mass market.

(PhotosCom, 2008) (Nokia, 2007)

Learning from PCs (2)Learning from PCs (2)• Initially PCs had performance• Initially, PCs had performance

metrics that were orders of magnitude below the current onesmagnitude below the current ones (ZX Spectrum, 1982, 3.5MHz, 16kB 0GB) (Sinclair, 1982)16kB, 0GB).

• There will be a race in wireless

( , )

• There will be a race in wireless systems between services made available to users and data ratesavailable to users and data rates made available by phones/networks

(Nadine Meade, 2000)

4

phones/networks.

Learning from today’s networks (1)

• Security is a key issue for the• Security is a key issue for the development of new services that make use of paymentsuse of payments.

• Privacy has been introduced in GSM(Artfile, 2007)

• Privacy has been introduced in GSM, in order to avoid eavesdropping.

• New developments may constitute a breach into consumers privacy (e g

(MIT, 2005)

breach into consumers privacy (e.g., location, use of services, and origin of payments) A barrier?

5

payments). A barrier?

(Inmagine, 2007)

Learning from today’s networks (2)

• Possible radiation hazards have been a• Possible radiation hazards have been a more or less acute problem.

• Will there be unforeseen problems that will endanger system developments?will endanger system developments?

• Risk acknowledgement and• Risk acknowledgement and communication should be accepted as part of the introduction of newpart of the introduction of new technologies. (MobileCom, 2001)

6 • What about environmental issues?

Perspectives on

• Today’s systems are based on acommunications (1)

• Today s systems are based on a person being the end user.

• Future systems must consider machine to machine

(Kenwood, 2007)

machine-to-machine communications as being, potentially more importantpotentially, more important.

• Sensor networks are emerging as(DHD, 1998)

• Sensor networks are emerging as one of the “killer” network structures of the future

7

structures of the future.

(SensorProd, 2007)

Perspectives on

• Today the phone represents thecommunications (2)

• Today, the phone represents the whole system for the user, i.e., it is the visible component being thethe visible component, being the communications interface.

(Nokia, 2006)

• Future systems must deal with the easiness of use (networkseasiness of use (networks complexity must be hidden from users) vs giving users the power tousers) vs. giving users the power to establish their communication environment

(Jesse Stuart, 1948)(Nokia, 2006)

8

environment. ( , )(USP, 2008)

What services? (1)• Mobile 3D Internet:

What services? (1)• Mobile 3D Internet:

visualisation of 3D images from a terminalterminal.

• Real time ad hoc communities:

(Builder AU, 2008)

• Real-time ad hoc communities:extending social networks into happenings on the spothappenings on the spot.

• Prosumers:(FutureLab, 2008)

• Prosumers:users playing a decisive role as producers and consumers of

9

producers and consumers of contents. (enriquedans, 2006)

What services? (2)• Context aware mobile web:

What services? (2)• Context aware mobile web:

physical and social awareness of users’ experienceusers experience.

• Interactive context aware games:

(DanceInternational, 2005)

• Interactive context aware games:games adapted to the user’s physical environmentphysical environment.

• Augmented reality:(UniversalStudios, 2007)

• Augmented reality:combination of virtual with real life objects

10

objects.

(Spectrum, 2008)

The EndThe End• “I think there is a world market for maybe 5• I think there is a world market for maybe 5

computers”, Thomas Watson (IBM), 1943.

• “There is no reason anyone would want a computerin their home” Keneth Olsen (DEC) 1977in their home , Keneth Olsen (DEC), 1977.

• “The best way to predict the future is to invent it”The best way to predict the future is to invent it ,Alan Kay (UCLA), 1971.

• “Shakespeare in love” can be an inspiration:• “It’s the dawn of a new day, my lady”

11

It s the dawn of a new day, my lady• “No. It’s the dawn of a new world”.

Toward n th Generation Full MobilityToward n-th Generation, Full Mobility…Is the way really straightforward?

Adam Wolisz

Telecommunication Networks GroupTechnische Universität Berlin

www.tkn.tu-berlin.de

Telecommunication Networks GroupTechnische Universität Berlin

The tough life of the last speaker…

• EVERYTHING has been already said,

but not each idea has been discussed by EVERY panelist?but not each idea has been discussed by EVERY panelist?

• Not really…

• There remain some “Little Details” … like

HOW TO ACHIEVE IT ?

TKN Telecommunication Networks Group2

The issue of coverage…

• It is sooo nice to believe that 2G has „full coverage“…• Just – take the train from Dresden to Berlin…

t t t lki t b / th t /start talking to: your boss / your sweetheart / … See your afterwards….

C• Coverage,,, coverage…. • Let us use femtocells (in the “native band”) • Let us use other technologies (WLAN? ???)• Let us use other technologies (WLAN?, ???)Sure, with the single handset ☺

• But we still need the knowledge of the coverage….g g

OPPORTIUNISTIC coverage discovery!!!!


Mobile system can assist

• They have GPS…

• They could anyway use precise location information• They could anyway use precise location information

• They can report coverage data … for further processing.

• But: is coverage all we need ?

• Well – we need to know the Neighbor Access Points

AND their coverage as well….

• What if they do NOT belong to the same system? Provider?


Application can assist!

• Nevertheless: Let us stop pretending the connectivity is ALWAYS PERFECT. This is NOT “wire over some radio interface”

• We do have “rate adaptation” , sure!!!

• We do NOT have real “APPLICATION ADAPTATION”

• Why I have lost a bunch of data with the stolen laptop?

• I have a lot of data in the MAIL System folders…• Yes, I can duplicate them on the server..., p

• But: this is a pain with weak connectivity

• And: working off- line blocks ALL the mail exchange…

• Think about using the browsers… and numerous other…


Here comes a bit of physics…• Capacity is increased by using small cells…

• Mobility is best served by big cells… y y g• Nothing will change this!

• So people say: we have cells of different size supported• So people say: we have cells of different size, supported by different technologies. With different coverage “radius”

• RIGHT!. But which should we use???

Mobility is not something which might be entirely• Mobility is not something which might be entirely assigned on a “Per terminal” basis forever. It depends on user activities….It depends on user activities….


Use information FROM the mobiles!

• From „dumb terminals“ to smart phones…

• Having GPS? Accelerometers? Other sensors• Having GPS? Accelerometers? Other sensors.

• Able to discover movement

• Able to much more… we are not “Just in voice era”

• The media we are interested in, might be dependent on the activityy

D t t A ti iti !!!Detect Activities!!!


How to organize signalling?

• Between Access Points: • Always per wire? The PON/Ethernet/DSL variant?y p

• What about catastrophes? Will our Wireless Networkdepend entirely on wires?

• Is a Wireless Inter- AP signaling necessary? Among heterogeneous radio systems!?

• Between terminals and access points/ Other terminals

• Should we think about some UNIVERSAL SIGNALING?S ou d e t about so e U S S G G• Logical Only?

• Physical? Dynamically definable?


Summary.

• There are numerous challenges,

• I have been talking about 3 major (personal view!)• I have been talking about 3 major (personal view!)• Coverage estimation/ neighborhood discovery• Needs/Activity Discovery• Needs/Activity Discovery • Signaling

h h l f h• Hurrah!!! There is a lot space for research!!!


Panel P07 -3G to 4G: towards full mobility IP...

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