Panel Discussion on Corporate Volunteerism Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003
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Transcript of Panel Discussion on Corporate Volunteerism Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003
Panel Discussion on CorporateVolunteerism
Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003
Nick Keener, CCM
Director, Meteorology
2009 Summer AMS Community MeetingAug 10-13th, 2009
Picture
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DUKE ENERGY is one of the largest electric power companies in the US.DUKE ENERGY is one of the largest electric power companies in the US.
Serves customers in 5 states: North and South Carolina, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky.
3.9 million retail electric customers
500,000 retail gas customers
47,000 square miles of Service Area
~ 37,000 MW Generation in the US and 4,000 MW of Generation in Latin America
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Duke Energy North America Power Generation Facilities Duke Energy North America Power Generation Facilities
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Weather Forecasts, Mesoscale Observations and Climate information are used to make daily operational decisions in the following areas:
Weather Forecasts, Mesoscale Observations and Climate information are used to make daily operational decisions in the following areas:
Load Forecasting that supports daily generation portfolio optimization
Optimization of Hydro Electric Resources
Hourly pricing
Weather Risk Analysis for load obligation
Monthly and seasonal forecasts for fuel inventories
Seasonal Forecasts for revenue projections
Support energy trading and marketing activities in both the regulated and non-regulated generation
Support Emergency Management for Storm Response
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Load Forecasting that supports daily generation portfolio optimizationLoad Forecasting that supports daily generation portfolio optimization
Hourly forecasts of temperatures, dew points, wind speed and cloud cover for input into load forecast models
Real-time surface observations
Precipitation projections
Forecasts developed from NCEP models, MOS, and local forecast methods developed internally
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Optimization of Hydro Electric ResourcesOptimization of Hydro Electric Resources
Twice daily QPF forecasts that are input into our Hydro Management System (1-3 days)
Medium range QPF projections for lake/river management (4 to 7 days)
Real-time QPE for inflow estimates
Seasonal forecasts for longer range planning and resource availability
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Weather Risk Analysis for load obligationWeather Risk Analysis for load obligation
Daily Weather forecast Scenario development to capture uncertainty and project a range of possible loads out to 3 days
Forecasts of convection, timing and coverage for possible load shedding
Temperature/wind forecasts for transmission line ratings and lake/river temperature thermal restrictions
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Monthly and seasonal forecasts for fuel inventoriesMonthly and seasonal forecasts for fuel inventories
Monthly/seasonal outlooks for temperature and precipitation are used for predicting coal inventories, gas storage numbers, and hydro availability
Seasonal forecasts of HDD and CDD are used to estimate revenue projections
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Support trading and marketing of energySupport trading and marketing of energy
Short and medium range forecasts are used for asset management (Day 1 through 5)
Daily market analysis based on region and national weather forecast.
Full suite of forecast projections for 35 cites in the 1 – 15 day range
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Weather Forecasts are utilized for resource scheduling in pre-storm planning for utility operations
Weather Forecasts are utilized for resource scheduling in pre-storm planning for utility operations
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Future weather forecast needs?Future weather forecast needs?
Implementation of a proposed National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD) which would provide probabilistic forecast information.
Improving Ensemble forecasts for both short and long range models and make them available through NOAA Port.
Improve the Ensemble MOS product past day 3 by removing climatology as a predictor.
Implement an Ensemble QPF forecast
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Real-time surface observations are used for the following operational decisions:Real-time surface observations are used for the following operational decisions:
System load management
System load modeling
Resource decisions related to on-going severe weather events
Inflow calculations for hydroelectric operations
Emergency response decisions related to non-routine releases
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Future Mesonet Needs?Future Mesonet Needs?
Increased spatial resolution of surface observations
Real-time SFC data available from a national network via NOAA Port every 15 minutes
Atmospheric boundary layer measurements using remote sensing systems for characterizing the PBL in real-time.
Recommendations under the Human Dimension – BASC ReportRecommendations under the Human Dimension – BASC Report
The stakeholders should commission an independent team of social and physical scientists to conduct end-user assessment for selected sectors. The assessment…………………added societal impact and value.
Themes – Weather prediction
and climate modeling
Support new applications in physical, dynamical, and chemical processes in expanding the user base
Integrated feedback mechanisms
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