East Asia ForumEconomics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asiaand the Pacifichttp://www.eastasiaforum.org

Pakistan refocuses attention towards Central Asia 24th September, 2011

Authors: Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe, FDI, James Brazier and Lilit Gevorgyan, IHS GlobalInsight

Since the Central Asian republics attained independence from the Soviet Union in the early1990s, Pakistan has entertained serious ambitions of cultivating and strengthening relationswith Central Asia.

Unfortunately, strategic myopia has skewed Pakistans focus towards securing influence inAfghanistan, limiting its success at building inroads into Central Asia. This has changed recentlyas Pakistan has sought to rebuild and strengthen relations.

Throughout 20102011, Pakistani diplomats and politicians have actively sought to bolsterrelations with the region through a series of high-level meetings with counterparts fromKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, discussing a range of topicssuch as defence, energy, infrastructure, people-to-people links, trade and investment andtransportation.

Several imperatives have spurred Pakistans interest in developing relations with Central Asia,including the need to contest Indias growing regional influence [1]; reduce its economicdependence on US aid, especially in view of the planned US military drawdown fromAfghanistan by 2014; and an increasingly urgent requirement to secure new sources of energyand access markets for trade and investment [2]. An additional factor is the beginning ofnegotiations over the TAPI pipeline, a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India project thatwould transport gas 1,735 kilometres from Turkmenistans Yoloten-Osman gas field to IndiasPunjab province.

Pakistani decision makers have grown concerned about meeting the nations escalating energy

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East Asia ForumEconomics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asiaand the Pacifichttp://www.eastasiaforum.org

demands, which are reportedly three times greater than supply and detrimental to industry andeconomic growth. Although Pakistan has, for many years, engaged in aggressive prospectingfor new domestic oil and gas reserves, it continues to import 85 per cent of its energy. It is littlewonder then that Pakistan has expanded its relations with Iran. For instance, in 2010 Pakistansigned a deal with Iran worth US$7.6 billion to build a pipeline by mid-2015 to pump natural gasdaily from the South Fars field to Pakistan.

Given the instability in southern Afghanistan, Pakistan now sees Iran as a land route to thecountries of western Central Asia, namely Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Throughthis link, Pakistan is able to access Turkmenistans market more readily. Pakistan has alsodemonstrated a strong interest in importing electricity from Turkmenistan and engaging injoint-venture partnerships to develop Turkmenistans South Yolotan-Osman gas field,reportedly the second largest in the world.

While amicable relations with Iran are a Pakistani foreign policy priority in their own right, thenations motives are also influenced by Indias efforts to finance the upgrade of the Chabaharport facility in Iran, with attendant rail and road passages directly linking Irans Persian Gulfcoastline with western Afghanistan and Central Asia, the latter through Turkmenistan. Pakistanis also in direct competition with Iran to exploit its geostrategic position relative to the IndianOcean as a corridor for Central Asian countries, including China, to make use of. This isparticularly the case with the new Chinese-built port facility at Gwadar on Pakistans southernMakran coastline.

The construction of the Gwadar port facility has led to efforts to upgrade or build new rail, roadand pipeline linkages that will eventually directly connect the new port to Chinas southwesternborder. With security and stability in Afghanistan proving elusive, the initial plans to useAfghanistan as a transit corridor to Gwadar appear to have stalled. Regardless, the economicrationale behind the ports construction appears to be primarily linked to Chinas use of thefacility, which is deemed vital to Chinas interests [3] in developing alternative energy routes toaccess the Indian Ocean.

For Pakistan to access Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, it requires the cooperation of Afghanistan touse the Wakhan Corridor. Pakistan and Tajikistan are hoping to build the 1,306 kilometre longPakistan-Tajikistan Highway to link the Tajik capital of Dushanbe to the Karakoram Highway inPakistan. There are also indications that Tajikistan remains eager to export energy, eventhough Tajikistan itself is suffering from electricity shortages and often seeks help from itsneighbours. Tajik President Imamoli Rakhmon has promised to complete the construction of theRogun hydropower station, which might open up the possibility of electricity exports.

The geographic proximity between energy-resource rich former Soviet Central Asian republicsand Pakistan, as well as converging economic interests, are going to shape regional ties in thelong term. Energy cooperation is likely to dominate Pakistans relations with Turkmenistan asthe latter will continue seeking new export routes for its landlocked hydrocarbon resources.Meanwhile, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are keen to gain access to Pakistani marketsand explore possibilities for joint ventures. The success of ambitious projects such as TAPI orthe construction of vital interstate road infrastructure hinges on a key regional issue improving

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East Asia ForumEconomics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asiaand the Pacifichttp://www.eastasiaforum.org

security.

Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe is a Senior Analyst at Future Directions International.

James Brazier is the Af-Pak Analyst at IHS Global Insight.

Lilit Gevorgyan is the Europe, Russia and CIS Analyst at IHS Global Insight.

A version of this article was first published in Janes Intelligence Weekly (June, 2011).

Article from the East Asia Forum: http://www.eastasiaforum.org

URL to article:http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/09/24/pakistan-refocuses-attention-towards-central-asia/

[1] contest Indias growing regionalinfluence:http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2010/04/19/improving-india-pakistan-relations-through-trade/

[2] access markets for trade and investment: http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2010/08/23/central-asias-new-silk-roads/

[3] deemed vital to Chinasinterests:http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2010/08/26/chinas-involvement-in-central-asia-beyond-the-borderlands/

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