Pakistan Next Generation Report Part 01

8/9/2019 Pakistan Next Generation Report Part 01

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Pakistan

The NextNovember 2


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Contents

Acknowledgements

ForewordOverview

Key findings

Peril and PromisePakistans future in an uncertain age

Portrait of a GenerationBeliefs, attitudes and aspirations

Dividend or DisasterUnderstanding the policy challenge

Making a DifferenceTransforming the lives of the Next Generation

The Greatest Generation?Tapping the potential of the young

Next Generation Contributors

Methodology

Footnotes

Chapter 1

Chapter 2

Chapter 3

Chapter 4

Chapter 5

AnnexOne

AnnexTwo

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iv

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Foreword

Inspirational. Influential. A change maker. A

leader.

Words almost never applied to a fresh-faced

twenty-something. The same youth whomakes up half of Pakistan's population andwho stands to inherit the country tomorrow.A country that today has urgent internal andexternal challenges; with resources that havebeen underutilized; where the present is

uncertain and the future unclear.

This report is unique, in that it comes directlyfrom those who hold the power to determine

Pakistan's future: the youth. They just don'thave the authority to exercise that poweryet.

This report is a landmark put together by the

youth of the country, gifted researchers andeminent Pakistanis with funding by theBritish Council after months of painstakingresearch and data-collection.

It is because of this effort that I am honouredto pen this foreword, and also because I cansee this report igniting a much needed

debate on what can be done to invest in theyouth so they aren't left short-changed.

It forecasts Pakistan's prospects over the nexttwenty years and identifies the country's

most pressing long-term challenges:population explosion and untappeddemographic potential, resource scarcity,social turmoil, distressing gender inequality

and the country's growing isolation in theinternational community.

The next generation wants to change that to

Acknowledgements

The following research was commissioned forthe Next Generation report:nSurvey Report for the Next Generation

Project, Tehseena Rafi and Silal Shafqat,Nielsen, Pakistan

nChanging Factors: Political & DemocraticActivism of Youth in Pakistan, Iqbal

Haider Butt, Senior Partner,Development Pool, Lahore, Pakistan;and Sabiha Shaheen, Executive Director,BARGADnYouth Employment and Economic Growth

in Pakistan, Dr Rehana Siddiqui, Chief ofResearch, PIDE, Islamabad, PakistannUnderstanding demographic

opportunities & threats for young people

in Pakistan: the economic, social &

political impact of youth participation

and /or exclusion, Arshad Bhatti,

Director, Connective Action InformingPolicy, Reforming Practice; and KaveriHarris, Researcher, Options UK andResearch Fellow, University of SussexnThe Next Generation Report The Policy

Environment, Sabina Ahmad and KulsumBabri, Value Resources

We would like to thank the following Task

Force members: Moeed Pirzada, broadcastjournalist H; Ashfaq Ahmad, Secretary ofYouth Affairs (2008), Govt. of Pakistan; Abrarul Haq, Chairman, Sahara for Life Trust;Mohsin Nathani, Country Head, Barclays Bank;

Ahmad J. Durrani, Vice Chancellor LUMS;Dr.Rehana Siddique, Chief Researcher, PIDE;Sabiha Shaheen, Executive Director, BARGAD;Arshad Bhatti, Director, Connective Action, Dr.

Tariq Rehman, Quaid-e-Azam University, Dr.Pervaiz.

The following provided valuable advice onshape, content and recommendations for the

Next Generation Report: Dr. Bernadette Dean,Principal, Kinnaird College, Lahore; Asad

Jappa, Director International Linkages,University of Gujrat, Pakistan CountryDirector University of Central Lancashire; Prof.

Dr. Malik Hussain Mubbashar, Vice Chancellor/ Chief E xecutive, University of Health

Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan; Ameena Saiyid,Managing Director, Oxford University Press,Karachi, Pakistan; Dr. Qurat ul Ain Bakhtiari,Founding Director, Institute of Development

Studies & Practices, Quetta, Pakistan; ShireenNaqvi, Director, School of Leadership, Karachi;Bilal Ahmad Rana, Project Coordinator, YouthParliament of Pakistan: Dr Samina Amin

Qadir, Head of English Programme, FatimaJinnah Women University.

Over twelve hundred members of the NextGeneration provided us with detailed and

insightful written contributions to the reportthrough the open source consultationprocess or in workshops. They areacknowledged in Appendix One.

This project was developed andimplemented by the following team from theBritish Council: Sue Beaumont, David Martin,Mark Stephens, Shazia Khawar, Fasi Zaka,

Salman Cheema, Fatima Farooq, Nasir Kazmi,Sadia Rahman, Nasir Nazir, Obaid Khan,Alamzeb Khan, Amna Ashraf, Mariam Khan,Asif Muneer, Khurram Saeed, Ahmad Ali andSarwat Azeem

David Steven from the Center forInternational Cooperation at New YorkUniversity was policy advisor to the project,with research and editorial assistance from

Victoria Collis, Jane Frewer, Michael Harvey,Matthew Kent and Mark Weston.Images are contributed by Fayyaz Ahmad andstudents of Kinnaird College.

One of the major challengeswhich the nextgeneration ofPakistan needsto knowis to

have answersto the questions,andenough knowledge about

the political/economiccondition of the country

Rabia


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Overview

Pakistan: The Next Generation aims to spark

debate on how the country can transformitself to harness the potential of its youngpeople.

The project, led by a Task Force of eminent

public figures, marks the mostcomprehensive investigation ever into theattitudes and needs of Pakistan's youth.

We have thoroughly reviewed existingresearch and supplemented this with newstudies from some of Pakistan's leadingacademic institutions.

We commissioned a representative opinionpoll of Pakistan's young people, exploringhow the next generation thinks, feels andreacts.

Perhaps most importantly of all, we haveinterviewed large numbers of young peopleand given them a chance to tell their stories.What do they want from the future? What

obstacles do they face? And how can theyhelp build a stronger Pakistan?

In Spring 2009, we launched an interim

report to provoke further discussion, invitingideas, input and critique from opinionformers, policymakers, and future leaders.Almost 1,500 people responded, helping uscomplete this landmark exploration of the

most important long term challenge facingPakistan.

Today, the country sits at a crossroads. For

too long, leaders have failed to grapple withdeep-seated threats to our future, though

there are welcome signs of a new willingness

to invest in the next generation. Theinternational community has also failedPakistan, pursuing a myopic and narrow-

minded agenda that has not delivered anytangible improvement in the security ofordinary people. Indeed, it has had theopposite impact.

Our report argues that it is time for a fresh

start. We all need to unite behind a newmission to meet the needs of the nextgeneration. Never again will Pakistan havesuch a high proportion of young adults in its

population. They offer us a substantialdividend, which we cannot afford to leave onthe table.

The most hopeful message emerging from

our report is the strength of the voices of thenext generation itself. With the country at aperilous point in its history, many youngleaders are determined to play their part in

building a brighter future.

Sixty-two years back there was a nation insearch of a land,one young person told us.

At present, there is a piece of land in searchof a nation.

The next generation is emerging as apowerful force for change. Only by

harnessing its energy can a new Pakistan beborn one able to overcome the challengesthe future will bring.

Key findings

Peril and Promise

nPakistan is a young and increasinglyurban society. Half its citizens are undertwenty; two thirds have yet to reach

their thirtieth birthday.nThe population has trebled in less than

fifty years. It will grow by around 85million in twenty years (roughly theequivalent of five cities the size of

Karachi).nBirth rates remain high by regional

standards, especially in rural areas.Pakistan's demographic transition (fromhigh to low mortality and fertility) has

stalled.nThe economy must grow by 6% a year to

meet the needs of its growingpopulation. 36 million new jobs are

needed in just ten years. At present,Pakistan ranks 101 out of 133 countrieson the Global Competitiveness Index.nBy 2030, Pakistan will be more urban

than rural, creating huge demand for

infrastructure. Energy use couldquadruple; water will be an increasinglyscarce resource.nPakistanis are losing confidence in the

future. Only 15% believe the country isheading in the right direction. 72% feeleconomically worse off than a year ago.Only one in ten expect an improvementin the near future.

Portrait of a Generation

nYoung people are passionate believers ineducation, but many have had no

opportunity to gain essential skills. Onlyhalf of Pakistan's children go to primaryschool, a quarter to secondary school,iii

Letthe girlsbe providedequalopportunity to study.whatis

this?some kindof colossaljokethatwe are muslimsby religionandwe can'timparteducation

to ourfemale youth?otherthing,include daily newspaper

reading in theirsyllabus.andteach them to really read

between the lines,not skimthru the newspapes

SaamiyaMusani


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v

now entering the workforce. If there are

no jobs and services for them, Pakistanfaces a demographic disaster. If they areengaged in the economy, politics and

society, Pakistan could collect a one-offboost to its growth and development.nThis demographic dividend first became

available in the 1990s. The window ofopportunity will close around 2045, bywhich time the society will be ageing

rapidly. During this period, therefore,investment in the next generation willhave a huge impact on Pakistan's longterm prospects.nLeaders need to make the next

generation their number one priority,dramatically increasing investment inyoung people, helping them reach theireconomic potential, supporting young

families, and engaging the youth asactive citizens and future leaders.nA long term vision for the next

generation should form the basis of a

new contract with young people, settingout what they can expect from Pakistanand what the country expects them todeliver in return.

0% Corruption,Equaljusticeforall, Equalrightsfor all,

Equalopportunitiesforall,afterall ,we allare humans!

Please respecthumans!

Nadeem Anjum


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Pakistans future in an uncerta

Peril and Promi

Pakistan has spent much of the twenty-first

century in turmoil.

The country sits on a geopolitical fault line,bordering China, India, Afghanistan and Iran

all countries that play a pivotal role in themodern world.

Throughout history, the country has beenbuffeted by external forces and subject to

interference from external actors. Therelationship with India has long been fraughtwith difficulty. During the Cold War, Pakistanwas drawn into the conflict between the

Soviet Union and United States of America inAfghanistan.

Since 9/11, the country has found itself onthe front line of the so-called 'War on Terror'.

Over the past few years, a wave of attacksfrom extremists has spread fear amongordinary people, while weakening the stateand isolating Pakistan from the global

community.

At home, successive governments have failedto satisfy the aspirations of a rapidly growingpopulation. Democracy was restored in

February 2009 after nine years of militaryrule, but the new government has struggledin the face of interlocking economic, socialand political threats.

Ordinary people are increasingly pessimistic,worried about both their own future and thatof their country (figure 1). They are horrified

by sickening violence directed at schools,universities and even mosques, with millionsforced by fighting to flee their homes. High


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been drastically curtailed. Export markets

have collapsed and their industries have fewbuffers to see them through tough economictimes. They face what The World Bank hasdescribed as an emergency for

development,a prolonged downturn thatwill curtail opportunities and increase

9vulnerabilities to other shocks.

The economic crisis was preceded by asudden and unexpected resource shock, withfood and energy prices hittingunprecedented levels in the summer of

102008.

The oil price spike was driven by a failure ofproduction to keep pace with rising demand,

especially from China and other fast-growingeconomies. The rise in food prices shadowedthat of oil, as the price of fertilisers andtransport leapt and biofuels competed for

scarce land. Speculation and protectionismexacerbated shortages in both areas. The oilprice peaked at $147 per barrel in July 2008.

High energy prices helped trigger the

recession in the United States that then11

spread to the rest of the world. Foodshortages, meanwhile, have had a

disproportionate impact on the vulnerable,pushing tens of millions of people intopoverty and triggering protests and riotsacross the developing world. According tothe Food and Agricultural Organization

(FAO), the number of ill-nourished peopleworldwide recently exceeded 1 billion for the

12first time since the 1970s.

Water is another increasingly scarce resource.

After a decade of solid growth, the world'seconomy contracted in 2009, shrinking fasterthan at any time since the Second World

8War. The IMF is predicting a slow recoveryfor 2010, but expects unemployment toremain high and sees new risks as

governments attempt to phase out fiscal

stimulus.

Much attention has been directed at theplight of those rich countries whose reckless

borrowing practices caused the crisis in thefirst place. In the long run, however, the mostserious consequences are likely to be felt bythose developing countries that lack robust

domestic markets.

Their currencies tend to be fragile and theiraccess to international credit markets has

On the other hand, new policies will begin to

bite as the world tries to make a rapid escapefrom the carbon age.

Scientists believe that global emissions

should peak by 2020 at the latest, anddecline rapidly every year after that. Even ifrich countries make drastic cuts to theiremissions (a big 'if' given their evasion andinaction on the issue), billions of young

people face a future where 'the right to emit'is an increasingly scarce and preciousresource.

TurbulentTimes

Look at the world today and we can see

these pressures beginning to bite.

2009 was a disastrous year for the globaleconomy. A financial crisis that began with

irresponsible mortgage lending in the UnitedStates has unleashed an economic tsunamiwhich is destroying wealth in both rich andpoor countries. World leaders have dubbedthe crisis the greatest challenge to the world

6economy in modern times. Their responsehas been to cut interest rates drastically andpump liquidity into the economy, with G20

governments spending an average of 2% of7

GDP on the crisis during 2009.

The majorchallenge isa lackof opportunitiesanda lack

of organizationalworkstreamlining the force of theyouth in Pakistan.The urgent

needis thatthe youth ofPakistan be focusedon a

particularprojectandhowthey can helpto achieve it.

WajahatNasser

Peril and Promise Peril and Promise

4

Courtesy: FayyazAhmad


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The 2008 resource crunch also hit Pakistan

hard, with high food and energy prices21

pushing inflation up to 23% in 2009. Energyshortages remain a feature of everyday life.

Power demand in cities has eclipsedavailable supply, leading to power cuts and'load shedding' that can last from eight to

22twelve hours a day.

Blackouts are crippling industry and having adevastating impact on the lives of ordinarypeople. Without electricity, hospitals cannot

function and water cannot be pumped. Highfood and fuel prices have made thenecessities of life increasingly expensive

23(figure 4). Around 7% of the population has

fallen back into poverty due to the combined24

food, energy, and economic shocks.

The energy crisis is destined to get worse.Pakistanis consume less than a quarter of the

25energy used by the average global citizen.40% of households have no electricity, whilefirewood, dung and crop residues account

26for over 80% of all household energy use.Population growth is stretchinginfrastructure to the limit. By 2030, withannual economic growth above 6%, energy

27demand will be four times current levels.

Water is an even greater problem, withPakistan one of the world's most water-

28stressed countries. The limits of waterresources are quickly being reached, withaquifers depleted and available water

deteriorating in quality. This makes farms lessproductive than their equivalents in Indiaand is threatening the hydro stations that

29generate around a third of electrical power.

Pakistan's challenges mirror those of the restof the world. While outsiders focus primarily

on security problems (which are of courseboth urgent and important), global social,economic and environmental drivers remain

the key determinants of the nation'sprospects over the long term (see figure 3).

As the government noted in its ownassessment of future prospects, Pakistan'seconomy still faces pressures from [an]

uncertain security environment, higherinflation driven by a spike in food prices,acute power shortages, a bewildering stockmarket, perceptible contraction in large-

scale manufacturing and a slowdown in theservices sector; lower than anticipatedinflows and growing absolute financing

17requirements.

After under-performing in the 1990s, theeconomy saw strong growth in the earlytwenty-first century, fuelled by the global

asset price bubble and by money pumpedinto Pakistan as part of the 'War on Terror'.But there has been a severe slowdown oflate, with GDP in 2009 expected to increase

18by only 2%.

Growth is expected to pick up in 2010, but ata rate that is barely above population

growth. Pakistan will remain heavilydependent on the performance of China andother rising economic stars, and oninvestment from the internationalcommunity.

Public finances remain under strain. InOctober 2008, the government was forced to

accept a $7.6 billion loan from theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) after aprecipitous decline in its currency reserves

and a collapse in confidence in its debt. Theoutstanding loan is now $11.3 billion over6% of our GDP.

The IMF believes that public finances havenow been stabilised, but points out thatPakistan's economic program is subject toan unusual degree of uncertainty associatedwith security problems and the depth and

19duration of the global slowdown. Ongoingexternal assistance will be needed if Pakistanis to stabilise its economy, boost growth andincrease social spending to protect ordinary

Pakistanis from the worst consequences of20

recession.

Pakistan's Challenges

Figure 3 Pakistansdevelopmentchallenge

60% of Pakistanspeopleliveonlessthan$2 aday

th

127 Pakistansrankingon theGlobalGenderGap Index(out of 130 countries)

6.8 million Pakistani childrennot inprimary school

70% of Pakistani childrenwillneverattendsecondary school-andonly 5% will go to university

85 million morePakistanisby 2030-equivalent to finecitiesthe sizeof Karachi

44% populationincreaseinjusttwenty years- twiceas fast astheworldaverage

50% of Pakistanspeoplewill belivingintownsorcitiesby 2030

36 million newjobsneededinthenext 10years

Sources:WorldPopulationProspects 2008,WorldUrbanizationProspects 2007 UNDPDevelopment Report 2009.WorldEconomic Forum2008, WorldBank2009. UNESCO2009,Pakistan Ministry of Finance,2009

Dealing with the energy &watercrisis,Radicalization of society,

Lack of Justice andLawlessnessin Society,Security,Law and

Order,Uncertain Future,UnemploymentandQuality of

Life,IncreasedPolarization(between havesandhave nots)

NabeelKhan

Peril and Promise

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Social change will be rapid. Already, as we

show in this report, attitudes are shiftingwith a new generation beginning to make itsvoice heard. The boost to economicdevelopment could be dramatic too. With so

many young adults, Pakistan has a windowduring which it can achieve a massive surgein its development, creating wealth that canbe reinvested for the future.

But this dividend can only be collected if theright policies are put in place today. How willa society that is already under strain feed,clothe, educate and provide healthcare to so

many people? Who will build and pay for theinfrastructure as cities expand at breakneckspeed? And what about scarce fuel,electricity, water and food?

Much will depend on the next generationitself. So who are Pakistan's young people?What do they think and believe? And whatdo they want from its future? We turn to

these issues in chapter two.

The Promise of a GenerationPakistan shows the strains of a country

coping with rapid population growth. In1960, the country had fewer than 50 millioncitizens. Today, there are around 180 million

34Pakistanis. Any society faces an enormous

task when it grows at such breakneck speed.

Without immediate action, the problems canonly intensify. Pakistan's population is

projected to exceed 260 million by 2030 and

SourceIRI Index:PakistanPublic OpinionSurvey 2009

0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Inflation

Unemployment

Terrorism

Electricity andWater

Poverty

Corruption

LawandOrder

Education

Figure 5 WhatisthesinglemostimportantissuefacingPakistan?

billion each year due to environmental31

factors. In the future, climate change could32

knock as much as 5% off GDP.

Taken together, these challenges are havinga dramatic impact on national moralealready hit hard by the security situation.72% of Pakistanis say their personal

economic situation has got worse in the pastyear. Only one in ten expect things to get

33better in the near future.

Of course, ordinary people are worried aboutterrorism and the security situation, but theirmain worries are day-to-day survival. Asfigure 5 shows, inflation is seen as by far the

country's greatest problem, withunemployment, access to electricity andwater, and poverty also believed to bepressing issues.

335 million by 2050 ( see figure 6). Dependingon birth rates, there will be around 85 million

more Pakistanis by 2030.

During this period, a wave of young peoplewill sweep across the country. Half the

population is currently under twenty years ofage and 66% are under thirty. By 2030, thecountry will have more people living in

35towns and cities than in the countryside.

Ourproblemsare Politicians,education andthe biggestofallthatwe really don't"OWNPAKISTAN" which we have to

do from nowon thisis theonly chance we have.

AbrarulHassan

Peril and Promise

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Portrait of a GenBeliefs, attitudes and aspirations

2CHAPTER


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Portrait of a Gen

Pakistan's next generation is living through atime of great transformation.

In part, this is a personal journey, but it alsotells us a great deal about the future. At the

age of eighteen, a young Pakistani is anadult, able to vote and expected to make afull contribution to society. Hopefully, he orshe will have been supported throughchildhood and be prepared to respond to thechallenge of being an adult.

By the age of thirty, a young man or womanshould be established in their chosen career.Most will have also chosen to start a family,

and will thus be responsible for theprospects of their children, making decisionsabout their upbringing - consequences ofwhich will be felt for decades to come.

Without the right preparation, few youngpeople will make a successful transition toadulthood. They need to be healthy enoughto survive infancy and to be able to learn in

school. They need an education that givesthem the skills needed in the modernworkplace, the confidence to interact withtheir peers, and the broader set of attributes

that make for a rounded human being. Theywill benefit from a family life that providessecurity, companionship and love, whilereadying them for families of their own.

Preparation is futile without opportunity.With so many young people, a job marketthat can expand fast enough to providepeople with rewarding employment is

especially important. Jobs offer financialrewards, of course, but they also providepeople with identity and self respect.

Beliefs, attitudes and aspiratio


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The fall in fertility is one of many culturalchanges facing the next generation. Today's

youth are also increasingly likely to live intowns and cities. Within 25 years, most of

38them will be based in urban areas. They

spend much of their free time watchingtelevision, surfing the internet orcommunicating with friends via their mobilephones.

Some worry that traditional values are beingleft behind. A young Karachi'ite complains,Respect is gone, in school we wouldn't darespeak in front of our teacher, but now it's

different. No one listens to the teacher.Another, from Narowal, says that people arein the rat race of wanting more and more forthemselves. Envy and greed has enteredtheir lives.

For many, religion is an anchor in this sea ofchange. Three-quarters of our respondentsidentify themselves primarily as Muslims,

compared to just 14% who definethemselves primarily as a citizen of Pakistan.

While they are worried about religiousextremism, they want to live in a society

where religious values such as peace, justiceand equality are promoted. As a young manin Multan argues, every issue will be solved ifwe go back to the fundamentals of Islam.

Violence also denies the next generation the

chance to make a broader contribution ascitizens. Young people around the world area major force for social change, drivingpolitical movements and working for the

public good. For Pakistan's youth to make asimilar impact, opportunities must becreated for them to express their views andbecome involved in improving theircommunities. As well as a legal environment

that allows them to associate with others andspeak their minds, young activists need to beable to trust the country's security apparatusto protect their rights and their safety.

So does the next generation believe it isequipped to make the transition toadulthood? The Next Generation researchexplores the beliefs, attitudes and aspirations

of young people from across Pakistan. Itprovides a snapshot of how the country'syouth are faring and insights into how wellprepared they are to seize the opportunities

of the future.

cities, towns and the countryside, and were

spread across the country's four provinces, aswell as Azad Jammu and Kashmir. We alsoconducted focus groups, gaining a rich anddetailed understanding of how the next

generation thinks, feels and reacts.

Most of Pakistan's young people, our surveyshows, are yet to take full control of theirlives. Around one in ten consider themselves

the head of their own household. The restlive with parents or an elder sibling, or in thecase of married women, with their parents-in-law.

Families are quite large, with their elderscontinuing to have a major influence on theirlives, even as they reach adulthood. Parentsplay a role in decisions over marriage,

education and work, and their influence over36

their daughters is particularly strong.

Young people generally marry in theirtwenties: men on average when they are 26

37years of age, women when they are 22.Almost three quarters of the men in our

sample are unmarried, compared to less thanhalf the women.

Couples start their own families quite soon

after marriage, with women having most oftheir children in their twenties. Family size inPakistan is falling though at 3.7 children perwoman, it is still higher than in manycomparable countries. Despite the increase

in their available time as a result of havingfewer children, young women are stilloverwhelmingly likely to be housewivesrather than being part of the workforce.

The LivesThey Lead

We interviewed a representative sample ofyoung Pakistanis between the ages ofeighteen and twenty nine. They came from

The nextgeneration ofPakistan wouldbe facing amajorproblem of freedom,

education,one-nessandlanguage.

RaheelAhmad


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Unsurprisingly, the next generation entersthe labour market unsure that it has the tools

it needs to thrive. Half of those interviewedin our survey believe their qualifications arebelow par, while only a quarter think they aresufficiently qualified for the job they want.

But even good qualifications may not beenough. Many have concluded there is littlepoint in becoming educated if there are nojobs. In Narowal, reports one young man, if

you have an MA or an MBA you do not get ajob. People are roaming around with degreesin their hands.A woman in Lahore tells asimilar tale: A hawker comes by and sellsvegetables. He has done a BA. He says that

there is no benefit of his study.

MissedOpportunities

connections in high places are more

important than talent and hard work.

There is no education,complains a residentof Multan. There is a culture of intercession

and recommendations.A young man fromLahore agrees: Here, a student struggles dayand night but the son of a rich man by givingmoney gets more marks than him. This cursehas become widespread in society.

are concerned about whether or not their

children will receive a good education.

Currently, however, both access to educationand the quality of schooling are mixed.

Education enrolment rates have improved inrecent decades, but many Pakistani childrenare denied any education at all. Only half goto primary school, a quarter to secondaryschool, and just 5% receive any higher

39education. Poor children, those who live inthe country, and girls suffer the worstexclusion, their opportunities choked off at

the very beginning of their lives.

In our survey, a quarter of respondents areilliterate and have never attended aneducational institution. For girls (wherever

they live) and rural respondents (whatevertheir gender), this proportion rises to 36%. InBalochistan, nearly half the next generationhas had no education at all (figure 7).

Cost is the main barrier keeping children outof school. Many children do not live near agovernment school, while even 'free'

schooling requires parents to spend moneyon text books and uniforms. For girls,

negative family attitudes to schooling are amajor constraint.

One young woman from Narowal reportsthat people feel that boys should studymore than girls.According to a young manfrom Islamabad: The girl once married will

go to someone else's house. So people ask:'why should we spend so much money onher as she will not remain in our house?' Thatis why they spend more money on their sons,so they can be well educated, get good jobs

and contribute in the house.Quality of education is an equally urgentproblem. The next generation is especiallycritical of government schools, where large

class sizes, poor facilities and unmotivatedteachers provide inadequate preparation forthe demands of adulthood.

The teachers in government schools spendtheir time doing nothing,says one youngman from Islamabad. In the governmentsector,another adds, the students are largein number and the staff is limited, so less

attention is given to children. The duration ofthe period is 25 minutes and 15 minutes areconsumed in taking attendance.

The next generation also worries thateducational opportunities are not providedequally to all children. They feel that

Figure 7 Unevenaccessto schooling

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Wom

en

Total

Rural

respon

dents

Balu

chis

Top2

socioe

cono

mic

classes

Never been enrolled in school

Source: Nielsen2009

Portraitof Generation

Youth shouldalso be madeaware of social responsibility,

so thatthey can helpbuildandadvance theirown

towns,villagesandcommunities,ratherthan

abandoning theirenvironment- hence

entrepreneurialskills willbean extreme guide inadvancing theirown

communities.TatheerZehra


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Source: Nielsen2009

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Themilitary

Religious educational institutes

State-run educationalinstitutes

Educationalministry

Publichealth system

Police

Localgovernment

National government

CourtsGreatdealofconfidence

Noconfidenceatall

the military is widely trusted (figure 9).Overall, just 4% of the next generation

believes that corruption in Pakistan society islow.

Security is another serious problem. Youngpeople are frightened to leave their homesbecause of terrorism and crime. Suicideattacks and bomb blasts have become thefashion of the day, says a student from NWFP.Young women experience a different kind of

violence, with many citing eve-teasing as adeterrent to their involvement in society.

Several focus group participants also report

problems at universities, where studentgroups, taken over and corrupted by politicalparties, are often more interested in violentfeuds than student affairs.

When young people brave the outside world,there are few outlets for them to expresstheir opinions and energies. When we goout we have no facilities but only tensions,

says a young man from Islamabad.

Young people feel they have few platformsfrom where they can express themselves,

while a failure to enforce basic civil libertiesmeans that few young Pakistanis feel able tocampaign for change. Disengagement fromthe political process is widespread. Just 2%are members of a political party, while only

39% voted in the last election and half arenot even on the voters' list.

The political class is seen as selfish and

corrupt: Politicians are busy in their ownfighting and no one even cares or bothers

Most young people have growing fears

about their employment situation, believingthat too few jobs are available and thatprospects are getting worse. Almost half ofthose in work, moreover, took more than six

months to find their jobs, while many findtheir working life disrupted by corruptionand discrimination.

Bias against people based on gender,

ethnicity, socioeconomic status, anddisability is common, while favouritism isalso rife. These days,one of the nextgeneration complains, whichever jobs you

get are through recommendation.

Combine a weak labour market with highinflation and economic underperformance,and the outlook for many is bleak. One

young man from Karachi sums up theproblem: The environment these days isvery bad. There are no jobs. Everything isgetting expensive. The poor man's life has

become very difficult.

Letting UsDown

This sense of injustice is not limited toeducation and the labour market. The nextgeneration believes that most of Pakistan's

institutions are riddled with corruption.

Only 10% of survey respondents have highconfidence in the national government, with

most believing that the government is failingto deliver on all levels.

In every department of the government

there is bribery,says one. Unless you knowsomeone nothing is done.When asked whatsuccessive governments have given youngpeople in recent years, a young citizen fromIslamabad has a direct, but depressing,

answer. Unemployment, inflation andterrorism, he replies.

Trust in the courts, police and local

government is similarly depleted, while only

Figure 9 Howmuch confidencedoyou havein Pakistan'sinstitutions?

When talk aboutrealization ithink Nextgeneration of Pakistan

do realize there responsibilityandthe only problem prevailisthere involvementmost of theyoung people afraidto involve

them self in politicsandshowingthere responsibility isdue topoordemocraticculture inPakistan they needto be

involvedso the only concretestepwouldthere involvement

ArpheelJohn


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the next generation and their elders. Religionis not an issue, with an overwhelming

majority sharing their parents' religiousbeliefs. But a sizeable proportion ofPakistan's youth do not see eye-to-eye withtheir parents on social issues, while evenmore disagree with their parents on politics.

The gap in attitudes is wider in Pakistan'srapidly growing towns and cities, a sign ofdeeper changes that may well be on the

43way.

This trend could be a positive development.Young Pakistanis are surprisingly civic-

minded. More believe that education'sprimary purpose is to help them become agood citizen with a broad understanding ofthe world, than to simply teach practical

Hopes and Fears

Despite their growing frustration, youngpeople still love their country, with a majority

believing it is the best country in the worldto live.

Most, however, believe Pakistan is heading inthe wrong direction and only one in tenthink it is doing well. They share thepessimism of their parents' generation, butare even more likely to feel their security is

41under threat. This not only makes them fearfor the future, it makes them angry andwounds their pride.

In the aftermath of the suicide bombing ofthe International Islamic University inIslamabad (IIUI), for example, a Facebookgroup was set up to mourn the victims, prayfor the wounded, and protest the violence.

They didn't attack IIUI,the groupproclaimed, they attacked the Pakistani

42youth.

Young people understand the damage thatterrorist violence has caused to Pakistan'sinternational reputation, but they want theworld to understand that they are much

more likely to be victims of violence than its

perpetrators. People consider us a terroristnation,says one young man from Lahore.Previously when a foreigner came we gave

him gifts,adds another: Now if he comes hisgift is death due to bomb blasts.

A man from Karachi speaks for many: Thecondition of Pakistan is like that of a person

who has fallen in the eyes of the world.

At this time of crisis, there is some evidencethat a generation gap is opening up between

career skills (figure 10). An overwhelming

majority, meanwhile, believe the nextgeneration should actively participate inbuilding a flourishing Pakistan. They yearnfor a less individualistic society that puts

aside ethnic differences and takes collectiveaction to tackle problems.

But this generation is at a crossroads. Starvedof opportunity, it feels bottled up and

frustrated, trapped in a world where only thewealthy and the well-connected thrive. Whilefew believe violence is justified, manyunderstand its causes, believing that

injustice and poor economic conditions arefuelling social unrest and terror (figure 11).

Many in the next generation do not believePakistan's leaders really want the country to

change. And although they have ideas aboutthe future, the next generation are convincednobody is listening.

Only the next generation can make aprosperous Pakistan,sa ys one young personfrom NFWP. We have seen and inherited toomany from our elders: corruption, bribes,mismanagement and the rest.

Figure 10 Whatisthemostimportantreasontogetan education?

Learning practicalcareer skills

Learning to be agoodcitizen

Gaining abroader understanding of the world

Learning more aboutreligion

Improving onessocialstatus

Other

Source: Nielsen2009

9%

9%

10%

15%

25%

32%

The nextgeneration,fortunatelyorunfortunately,isgroomedunderan environmentwherethe parentsandelders teach

them the waysof illegalovertaking.The potentialcan

notbe realizedby scoring AsinOand ALevel examinationsbutthe emphasisshouldbe given

forthe active participation of theyouth in the community andits

activities.MajidAliKhan Ghori


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Dividend or DisaUnderstanding the policy challen

3CHAPTER


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The challenge posed to Pakistan's next

generation is substantial and growing.

Over the next two decades, the country will44

have around 85 million more citizens.

Educating, feeding and caring for so manychildren will be a daunting task for a societythat is struggling to satisfy the needs oftoday's much smaller population. Each year,

moreover, growing numbers of young adultswill be searching for productive andsatisfying jobs.

The stakes are high. Pakistan could derivebenefits from its young population that willendure into the next century. Or it could missthe opportunity, suffering damage that willtake a century or more to repair.

In the next two chapters, we explore theactions that policy makers need to take tounlock the potential of the next generation.

The first step is for them to understand thescale of both the problem and the potentialopportunity. We thus present a broadoverview of the next generation's keypolitical, social and economic implications.

The picture is a complex one. Sheer numbersmatter. Pakistan has never had so manyyoung people and the size of the next

generation will continue to grow over thecoming decades. But the relative size of thenext generation is also important. Thepopulation is steadily ageing. Through thefirst half of the twenty-first century, the

proportion of workers in the population willincrease. The conditions are right, therefore,for a major economic breakthrough, but thisis where policy comes into play.

Dividend or DisaUnderstanding the policy cha


22/22

The dividend doesn't come for free. It has tobe earned. A country needs to educate its

children and make sure they are healthy; findthem jobs as they get older and providethem with opportunities to save; and offer

them ways of expressing their desire forsocial and political change.

If these avenues are blocked, not only will anopportunity be missed, but young people'sfrustration can prove destructive. As David

Bloom argued, it's no good turning outeducated people if they can't find work.Nothing is more likely to breed unrest thanarmies of under-employed young people.

While prosperity must be built patiently overdecades, conflict can destroy hard-foughtdevelopment gains in months.

Countries who fail to collect their dividend

thus risk a 'demographic disaster' (figure 12).The top ten countries in the Fund for Peace'sFailed States Index all have proportions ofyoung people that are higher than the

47average developing country.

Henrik Urdal, from the International PeaceResearch Institute, highlights the risks run by

young countries if they fail their young48people. Urdal has found that countries withlarge numbers of 15-24 year olds have

substantially increased chances ofexperiencing conflict.

Education, on its own, does not necessarilyhelp. Indeed, countries that expand their

higher education systems may findthemselves at greater risk of unrest if theirgraduates are unable to find work. Rapid

The size of the opportunity can best be

understood if we look at the experience ofother countries that have benefited from adynamic, youthful population.

Economists have been studying the growingpains of 'young countries' since the 1990s,when East Asia experienced its economic'miracle'. According to Harvard University'sDavid Bloom, East Asia's boom countries

collected a substantial 'demographicdividend' as its youthful generation reachedmaturity.

The East Asian economies had hugenumbers of new workers entering the labourmarket,Bloom argues. It was a shot in thearm for economic growth. We calculate thatas much as one-third of the growth in their

boom years was the direct result of thefavourable hand their age structure had dealt

45them.

So what shapes the demographic dividend?The seed is better health. The twentiethcentury saw an extraordinary transformation

in health standards. In 1900, people livedonly a little longer than they had throughout

human history. By the end of the century,however, global life expectancy had doubled46

to around 70 years of age. The biggestchange was for babies and young children.Parents found that many more of theirchildren were living to become adults. As a

result, the world's population began to shootup.

But this was just the start of a fundamental'demographic transition', as, in country after

country, family sizes started to drop. As soon

as parents felt they had sufficient security toplan for the future, most wanted to investmore resources in fewer children. In time,therefore, national populations have tended

to stabilise but not before a huge 'babyboom' generation has been born.

Baby boomers are responsible for deliveringthe demographic dividend. When they are

young, they place a great strain on thecountry's health and education systems, butas they reach adulthood, the workforceswells. With fewer children to care for,

women are also more likely to work. Thelonger people expect to live, the more theyare likely to save for old age, which in turnoffers an economic boost. In smaller families,meanwhile, children are likely to receive a

better education.

Part of the impact comes from changingattitudes. Youthful idealism and energy drive

change. More prosperous societies investmore in the future, which in turn creates theconditions for future prosperity and growth.Citizens begin to believe in a better future,

causing them to act in ways which make that

future possible. They become less tolerant ofunstable and ineffective political and socialsystems, and demand institutions capable oflooking after their interests over the long

term.

Collecting the Dividend The Cost of Failu

Being an agriculturalcountry,we don'tneedany additional

loansas is.Eliminate corruptionin the Military & Governmentalinstitutionsacross the country.

Also eliminating the feudalmentality by making these land

lordsan example by taxingagriculturalland owners.

ArsalanBobbyKhan

Dividend or Disaster

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Pakistan Next Generation Report Part 01

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Transcript of Pakistan Next Generation Report Part 01