Pakistan Economy Challenges
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Transcript of Pakistan Economy Challenges
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7/31/2019 Pakistan Economy Challenges
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JDAEAIS AG ^OFCTPOE DMOLLJEBJT OE@ ^XAT^JDPT?
?% Cepxa`zdpcae% Cp ct ce`jj` bxjop maeazx oe` ~ljotzxj gax ij pa hj t~je`ceb pmct
iaxeceb rcpm saz% C oi qzcpj dabec{oep ag pmj godp pmop pmct ct aej ag pmj gcejtp cetpcpzpcae
^ofctpoe mot oe` C olrost fjj~ tosceb pmop cg rj mo` cetpcpzpcaet lcfj D ' TD xj~lcdopj` ce azx
dcwclcoe lcgj, pmj dazepxs razl` hj izdm hjppjx agg, pmjxjgaxj, C daiije` saz oe` C oi tzxj pmop
oll ag saz razl` hj xctceb tpoxt ag ^ofctpoe Oxij` Gaxdjt oe` razl` iofj o daepxchzpcae rmcdm
ct ho`ls xjqzcxj` gax pmj z~lcgp ag pmj dazepxs% Bjepljije/ C oi baceb pa polf ohazp o tzhkjdp
rmcdm ~xodpcdolls oggjdpt jwjxs tceblj tjdpax ag lcgj, rmcdm ct jdaeais% Cp ze`jx~cet jwjxs rolf
ag lcgj oe` pmjxj ct bxjop `jol ag cepjxodpcae hjprjje mjolpm ag jdaeais oe` pmj `jgjedj gaxdjt%
8% Oe Awjxwcjr% Ljp ij bcwj saz o hxcjg awjxwcjr ce tci~lj pjxit ot pa rmop pmj
tpxzdpzxj ag pmct jdaeais ct1 Ce ?302, ^ofctpoe mo` 4> icllcae ~ja~lj rcpm ~jx do~cpo cedaij ag
?>>$% Obxcdzlpzxj oddazepj` gax oliatp :>* ag jdaeaicd azp~zp rcpm mox`ls oes ioezgodpzxceb,
ot oll ce`ztpxcjt rjxj ladopj` ce Ce`co% Pmjxjgaxj, cp rot zeohlj pa gjj` 4> icllcae ~ja~lj oe`
rot `j~je`jep ae ^L)0=> ci~axpt gxai pmj ZTO% Gxai pmjxjae, ^ofctpoe mot daij o laeb
ros% Pa`os rcpm ?2> icllcae ~ja~lj, azx ~jx do~cpo cedaij ce 8>>= rot ?>>>$ rmcdm rot pje
pcijt iaxj% ^ofctpoe ct pmj pmcx` loxbjtp j}~axpjx ag xcdj ce pmj raxl` oe` ~xa`zdceb jeazbm
gaa` bxocet pa gjj` cpt ~ja~lj% 4 icllcae paet ag xcdj ct j}~axpj` jwjxs sjox hs ^ofctpoe rmcdm ct
tzx~lzt pa azx xjqzcxjijept% ^ofctpoe ct olta aej ag pmj gcwj iokax pj}pclj ~xa`zdceb dazepxcjt ce
pmj raxl`% Ta cg rj ijotzxj ce xjlopcae pa rmjxj rj rjxj wct))wct tpxzdpzxj ag jdaeais,
obxcdzlpzxj mot daij `are gxai :>* pa 8>*% Pmjxjgaxj, azp ag papol eopcaeol cedaij,
obxcdzlpzxjt daepxchzpcae ct kztp 8>*, hzp cetpjo` ag hjceb `jgcdcjep ce gaa` ~xa`zdpcae, rj oxj
? Ljdpzxj `jlcwjxj` pa pmj ~oxpcdc~oept ag pmj Daiioe` oe` Tpogg Dazxtj op Daiioe` oe` Tpogg Dalljbj _zjppo
ae Tj~pjihjx 0, 8>>3%
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odpzolls tzx~lzt oe` pmop ct rmop ~xa`zdpcwcps ijoet c%j% hs ztceb pmj toij loe` saz ~xa`zdj
iaxj gxai pmj toij ce~zpt, pmop ct mar jdaeaicd bxarpm pofjt ~lodj% Obxcdzlpzxj ct eap aels
dxa~t, rcpmce obxcdzlpzxj pmjxj mot hjje o tcbecgcdoep dmoebj% Lcwjtpadf, `ocxs, izppae, hjjg,
~azlpxs oe` tciclox apmjx ~xa`zdpt ct :>* ag obxcdzlpzxj azp~zp ce ^ofctpoe% ^ofctpoe olta
~xa`zdjt pmcx` loxbjtp qzoepcps ag iclf ce pmj raxl`% Ta rcpmce obxcdzlpzxj tjdpax, pmjxj ct o
dmoebj c%j% iokax dxa~t oxj aels 47* ag obxcdzlpzxj wolzj o``j` oe` ?0* oxj iceax dxa~t,
gctmjxcjt, axdmox`t, gxzcpt oe` wjbjpohljt% Pmzt, rj oxj iawceb ce o `cxjdpcae rmjxj pmj toij
loe` oe` toij xjtazxdjt oxj hjceb ztj` iaxj jggcdcjepls ce ax`jx pa ~xa`zdj iaxj% Ot o
daepxotp, obxcdzlpzxj ct aels 8%:* ce pmj ZT mowceb o ~a~zlopcae ag 4>> icllcae, azp ag rmcdm
pmjs eap aels gjj` pmj jepcxj ~a~zlopcae, hzp olta j}~axp pa pmj xjtp ag pmj raxl`% Pmjxjgaxj, cp ct
ci~axpoep pa ze`jxtpoe` pmop rmje cp ct toc` pmop obxcdzlpzxj ct ~xa`zdceb!daepxchzpceb iaxj, cp ct
pmj ~xa`zdpcwcps ag obxcdzlpzxj xopmjx pmoe pmj tmoxj ag obxcdzlpzxj ce B@^% Ioezgodpzxceb oe`
ce`ztpxs ear oddazep gax 8:* ag pmj cedaij6 rmje rj xjdoll pmjxj rot eap jwje o tceblj
ce`ztpxs raxpm cpt eoij op pmj pcij ag ~oxpcpcae% Ta cg rj laaf rmjxj rj rjxj oe` rmjxj rj oxj,
C pmcef pmj kztpcgcdopcae gax ^ofctpoe ce pjxit ag hjppjxijep ag jdaeaicd dae`cpcaet ag Iztlcit ce
pmct ~oxp ct wjxs tpxaeb% Hzp rmjxj rj mowj goclj` ct pmop rj mowj eap lcwj` z~ pa azx ~apjepcol%
Ce ?373, ^ofctpoe j}~axpt ag ioezgodpzxj` baa`t rjxj mcbmjx pmoe pmj daihcej` j}~axpt ag
Ce`aejtco, Iolostco, ^mclc~~cejt oe` Pmocloe`% Ce ?37>t Faxjo jizlopj` ^ofctpoe ce cpt gcwj
sjoxt ~loeeceb ~xadjtt% Pmj pxobj`s ct pmop jwje o dazepxs tzdm ot Wcjpeoi rmcdm rot
dai~ljpjls `jwotpopj` hs pmj rox mot ear awjxpofje ^ofctpoe% Pje sjoxt oba, Ce`co rmcdm
rot ros hjmce` ^ofctpoe -pcll ?33>t# ct ear ros omjo`% Ot oe jdaeaictp oe` tpz`jep ag
blaholc{opcae, pmj hcbbjtp dmolljebj ct; mar doe rj axboec{j azxtjlwjt pa xjodm pmop ~atcpcae
rmjxj op ljotp rj doe hj xzeeceb eap op pmj ecej tjdae` o iclj hzp op ljotp pje tjdae` o iclj
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xodj rmcdm ct baceb ae ce pmj blahol jdaeais% Pje iaxj ci~axpoep dmolljebjt godceb
^ofctpoet jdaeais oxj `jlchjxopj` ce pmj tzddjj`ceb ~oxobxo~mt%
4% Dmolljebjt pa ^ofctpoet Jdaeais
o% Rj Daetzij Iaxj oe` Towj Ljtt% Azp ag jwjxs mze`xj` xz~jjt ag azx
eopcaeol cedaij, rj daetzij =: xz~jjt oe` towj aels ?: xz~jjt, rmcdm ijoet
pmop pmj oiazep ag iaejs rmcdm ct owoclohlj pa cewjtp gax jdaeaicd bxarpm oe`
o`woedjijep ct paa lcpplj% Hjdoztj pa bxar hs 7*, saz ejj` op ljotp 80)8:*
cewjtpijep xopj ) oe` cg saz roep pa xjls ae `aijtpcd towcebt, sazx towceb xopj
tmazl` hj 8:*% Ce`cot towceb xopj rot ohazp pmj toij, hzp lotp sjox pmjs
xjdax`j` 40* towceb xopjt% Dmceot towceb xopj ct :>*, ta pmct ct pmj daepxotp ot
pa rms rj oxj ce tjxcazt `cggcdzlps hjdoztj ot o eopcae pmct ct o ~xahlji rmcdm rj
mowj pa xjdabec{j% Rj mowj pa op ljotp `azhlj ae towcebt xopj apmjxrctj rj rcll
xjioce `j~je`jep ae gaxjcbe tazxdjt%
h% Rj Ci~axp Iaxj oe` J}~axp Ljtt% Pcll 8>>2)8>>=, =>* ag azx ci~axpt rjxj
gceoedj` hs azx j}~axp joxecebt% Pmct xopca mot daij `are pa aels :>*, cp ios
ba z~ pa 7>* hzp o bo~ ag 0>* ag gceoedceb ejj`t ce ax`jx pa fjj~ rcpm pmj
ci~axp ljwjl tpcll j}ctpt% Ot o eopcae rj ~xjgjx pa ztj jwje pmj hotcd daiia`cpcjt
ag gaxjcbe dazepxcjt xopmjx pmoe ladolls ioezgodpzxj` baa`t% Zeljtt rj `a eap
dmoebj pmct oppcpz`j ag ~xjgjxxceb pmj ci~axpj` baa`t rj mowj pa fjj~ ae xjlsceb
ae azptc`jxt pa gcll ce pmct bo~ h!r azx ci~axpt oe` j}~axpt% Xjlsceb ae azptc`jxt
ijoet pmop pmjxj oxj dsdljt, z~t, oe` `aret c%j% rmje pmcebt oxj baa`, aej bjpt
gceoedceb, oe` rmje pmcebt oxj ho` aej tpoxwjt gax gceoedceb% Ea eopcae rmcdm
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tpxcwjt pa ~xjtjxwj cpt maeazx iztp ba pmxazbm pmct ~oxpcdzlox xazpj% Pmj larjx ct
pmct bo~ hjprjje azx j}~axp joxecebt oe` j}~je`cpzxj ae ci~axpt ) oe` pmop doe
hj odmcjwj` aels hs j}~je`ceb azx j}~axpt6 azx xjlcoedj ae j}pjxeol tazxdjt
razl` hj xj`zdj`%
d% Bawjxeijep T~je`t Iaxj pmoe cp Joxet ot Xjwjezjt% Gctdol `jgcdcp ct pmj
`cggjxjedj hjprjje pmj xjwjezjt rmcdm oxj dalljdpj` ce o sjox oe` pmj papol
j}~je`cpzxj cedzxxj` hs pmj Bawjxeijep% ^ofctpoet bawjxeijep pofjt oros
8>* ag eopcaeol cedaij ot cpt are% =>* ct ljgp ce pmj ~xcwopj tjdpax oe` 8>* ce
pmj moe`t ag pmj bawjxeijep ct t~jep ae `jgjedj, `jhp tjxwcdceb, `jwjla~ijep
ae j`zdopcae, mjolpm, bjejxol o`icectpxopcae jpd% Pmj xjwjezj bjejxopj` ct aels
?:* ag pmj B@^ op hjtp, oe` ce pmj raxtp `ost cp ct ?8 pa ?4*% Azp ag pmj jwjxs
xz~jj ag cedaij xjdjcwj` hs o ^ofctpoec, ae owjxobj, po} ~oc` ct aels 3 ~octot
oe` 3? ~octot xjioce rcpm pmj ce`cwc`zol% Ce 8>>2)8>>=, ^ofctpoet gctdol `jgcdcp
rot iaxj pmoe 2* rmcdm ijoet cpt cedaij ax xjwjezjt rjxj aels ?4* ag B@^
rmjxjot, j}~je`cpzxjt rjxj 8>*% Pmjxjgaxj, gctdol `jgcdcpt mowj pa hj gceoedj`
gxai taijrmjxj, ta mar `a saz gceoedj pmji6 saz jcpmjx ba oboce hjbbceb pmj
j}pjxeol `aeaxt, ax pa pmj Tpopj hoef ag ^ofctpoe% Pmj gceoedceb ~xawc`j` hs pmj
Tpopj hoef ag ^ofctpoe ct `oebjxazt hjdoztj cp dxjopjt mcbm ceglopcae ce pmj
jdaeais, rmcdm ct cekzxcazt pa pmj ic``lj dlott, pmatj joxeceb gc}j` robjt oe`
toloxcjt, oe` pmj ~aax% Pmjxjgaxj, pmjxj ct oe z~xaox ce pmj dazepxs cg pmj ceglopcae
xopj bajt z~% Ce ?333, azx @jhp pa B@^ xopca rot ?>>*, rmcdm ijoet pmop pmj
jepcxj eopcaeol cedaij rot ~lj`bj` ot `jhp% Jwjxs tceblj ~jees rot ~lj`bj` pa
pmj dxj`cpaxt% Pmct xopca rot xj`zdj` bxo`zolls awjx ej}p tc} pa tjwje sjoxt oe`
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hxazbmp `are pa :>*, oe owjxobj gax oll pmj jdaeaicjt% Marjwjx, pmj ros pmj
pmcebt oxj baceb gax pmj lotp pra sjoxt, cp mot iawj` gxai :>* ce lotp pra sxt pa
:=*, oe` rcpm oll pmj haxxarcebt cp ios ba pa 7>*, rmclj pmj Gctdol Xjt~aetchclcps
Lor 8>>: tost, pmop pmj bawjxeijep tmazl` eap j}djj` pmj `jhp B@^ xopca iaxj
pmoe 7>* oe` ct xjqzcxj` pa xj`zdj cp hs 8%:*6 oe` pmop ct eap mo~~jeceb% Pmj
xjotae pmj gctdol `jgcdcp ct rc`jeceb ct lar xjwjezj dalljdpcae% Mar doe saz
j}~jdp pmop aels ecej ~octot azp ag jwjxs xz~jj ag cedaij bjejxopj` hs ^ofctpoec
~a~zlopcae tzggcdjt pa ijjp pmj xjqzcxjijept ag `jgjedj, cegxotpxzdpzxj,
`jwjla~ijep, `jhp tjxwcdceb jpd% Pmct ct kztp eap ~attchlj% Ce Ce`co, po} B@^ xopca
ct ?:* oe` tpcll pmjs mowj gctdol `jgcdcp% Ta ^ofctpoe ct ros hjlar pmj eaxi gax
`jwjla~ceb dazepxcjt% Ioes ~ja~lj tos pmop `jgjedj pofjt oros o lap ag
bawjxeijep j}~je`cpzxj% Rmjxjot, pmj godp ct pmop `jgjedj j}~je`cpzxj ct aels
8>* ag bawjxeijep j}~je`cpzxj% Cp ct aels 0* ag B@^, oe` ct eap tzdm o loxbj
j}~je`cpzxj ot dai~oxj` pa `jhp tjxwcdceb rmcdm ct 2)=* ag B@^ oe` oliatp
0>* ag bawjxeijep j}~je`cpzxj% Pmjxjgaxj, bawjxeijep mot pa daepoce cpt gctdol
`jgcdcp hs xoctceb xjwjezjt% Obxcdzlpzxj cedaijt oxj j}ji~p, ~xagjttcaeolt,
xjpocljxt, rmaljtoljt, pxoet~axp arejxt oe` ioes apmjx tjxwcdj ~xawc`jxt jwo`j
po}jt hs ~osceb o tioll gxodpcae ag rmop ct `zj% Daepcezceb loxbj gctdol `jgcdcpt
sjox ogpjx sjox ios ~lzebj pmj dazepxs cepa `jhp pxo~ oboce%
`% Azx Tmoxj ce pmj Raxl` Pxo`j ct Tmxcefceb% Ce ?33>, ^ofctpoet tmoxj rot
>%8* ag pmj raxl` pxo`j% Ogpjx 8> sjoxt cp mot daij `are pa >%?8* ce o wjxs
hzasoep raxl` jdaeais% Raxl` pxo`j mot hjje bxarceb gotpjx ot dai~oxj` pa
pmj raxl` azp~zp% Ce`co ce pmj toij ~jxca` mo` `azhlj` cpt tmoxj gxai >%2* pa
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?%0*, rmclj ^ofctpoe ct baceb pmj apmjx ros oe` pmop ct pmj xjotae rms
j}~axpt!ci~axpt ciholoedj ct cedxjotceb% Rj oxj eap pofceb o`woepobj ag pmj
a~~axpzecpcjt rmcdm o hzasoep raxl` jdaeais ct ~xawc`ceb% ^ofctpoe ct tpzdf rcpm
aels o gjr daiia`cpcjt pj}pcljt, ljopmjx, xcdj, t~axpt, baa`t oe` pmj tzxbcdol
baa`t% Rj mowj eap jepjxj` pmj ioxfjpt gax iaxj `seoicd ~xa`zdpt% Oll azx
j}~axpt oxj pa o gjr ioxfjpt pmj ZTO, JZ oe` pmj Ic``lj Jotp% Ta pmct eoxxar
j}~axp hotj oe` wjxs lcicpj` bjabxo~mcdol t~xjo` oxj eap ollarceb zt pa j}~oe`
azx tmoxj% Zeljtt rj ci~xawj pmj qzolcps ag azx ~xa`zdpt, ba azp oe` `a pmj
ioxfjpceb ohxao`, cewjtp ce xjtjoxdm oe` `jwjla~ijep, pmj ~xat~jdpt `a eap laaf
~xaictceb% Pmop ct rms rj oxj lobbceb hjmce` apmjx dazepxcjt rmcdm gxai ros
hodf oxj awjx pofceb ^ofctpoe%
j% Rj Ho`ls Lob ce Tadcol Ce`cdopaxt% Aej ag pmj iatp bloxceb rjofejttjt ct
pmop o dazepxs lcfj ^ofctpoe pmop tmazl` mowj mo` hjtp ce`cdopaxt ce lcpjxods, cegoep
iaxpolcps, gjxpclcps xopjt, ce oddjtt pa ropjx tz~~ls, ce ~xcioxs jexalijep xopcat mot
tadcol ce`cdopaxt rmcdm oxj iaxj dai~oxohlj pa Ogxcdo xopmjx pmoe pa pmj dazepxcjt
ag tciclox ~jx do~cpo cedaij% Jwje Pokcfctpoe, rmcdm ct o wjxs ~aax dazepxs, mot
hjppjx lcpjxods xopj oe` ~xcioxs jexalijep xopcat pmoe ^ofctpoe% Rmop `ajt cp
ijoet1 Cp ijoet pmop cg rj mo` lcpjxods xopj ag ?>>* cetpjo` ag ::*, pmje ce
8>>3)8>?> azx ~jx do~cpo cedaij razl` mowj hjje 8>>>$ xopmjx pmoe ?>>>$%
Cetpjo` ag 4> icllcae ic``lj dlott ce ^ofctpoe rj razl` mowj 7>)2> icllcae ic``lj
dlott ~ja~lj6 rj razl` mowj ~awjxps xj`zdj` pa ?:)8>*% Rj mowj daiicppj` pa
odmcjwj pmj iclljeeczi `jwjla~ijep baolt hs 8>?: c%j% rj rcll hj ohlj pa xjodm
=>)=:* lcpjxods xopj, hzp cp ct `azhpgzl pmop pmct rcll mo~~je% Rms `a rj mowj
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xjbcaeol cejqzolcpcjt1 Rms Holzdmctpoe ct lobbceb hjmce` apmjx ~xawcedjt1 Cp ct
hjdoztj ag lcpjxods xopjt oe` ~xcioxs jexalijep xopcat% Pmjxj ct o `cxjdp da)
xjlopcae hjprjje xjbcaeol cejqzcpcjt oe` hodfrox`ejtt rcpm pmj ljwjl ag
j`zdopcae%
g% Rj Godj Jejxbs oe` Ropjx Tmaxpobjt% Oeapmjx dmolljebj rj godj pa`os
ct jejxbs oe` ropjx tmaxpobjt, oe` pmop ct eap hjdoztj rj oxj eap bjejxopceb
jeazbm jljdpxcdcps ax rj oxj eap mowceb jeazbm ropjx% Rcpm pmj lattjt ag FJTD
gxai pmj ~acep cp mot bjejxopj` pa pmj ~acep pmjs xjolc{j pmj hcllceb ct 0:*, ta ::*
~ja~lj oxj ~osceb gax pmatj rma oxj tpjolceb pmj jljdpxcdcps% Bawjxeijep ag
^ofctpoe azp ag cpt are lcicpj` xjtazxdjt ct ~osceb 8>> hcllcae xz~jjt jwjxs sjox
ot tzhtc`cjt gax jljdpxcdcps% Azx ce`ztpxs ct op o `cto`woepobj pmop pmjs bjp pmj
ax`jxt gxai gaxjcbe dazepxcjt hzp pmjs doeeap j}jdzpj pmj ax`jxt hjdoztj pmjxj
oxj jljdpxcdcps azpobjt% Ce o``cpcae pa jdaeaicd lattjt cp olta dxjopjt
cedaewjecjedj gax ~zxtzceb eaxiol lcgj% Rj mowj tclpceb ag azx `oit, hzp ea
o``cpcaeol `oit mowj hjje daetpxzdpj` tcedj Poxhjlo ce ?320% Rj mowj ropjx
dazxtj lattjt ag ohazp 8>)8:*% Jwje ogpjx pmjtj lattjt, pmj ropjx ct cejqzcpohls
`ctpxchzpj`% Pmj ceglzjepcol loe` lax`t oxj ohlj pa pofj bxjopjx tmoxj ag ropjx gxai
pmj doeolt ot dai~oxj` pa ~aax goxijxt% Pmjxjgaxj, pmj ~xa`zdpcwcps ag ~aax
goxijx ct aels aej pae ~jx odxj ot dai~oxj` pa 4 paet hs loxbj mal`jxt% Cg rj
~xawc`j pmj ropjx jqzcpohls pa pmj tioll goxijx, mj razl` olta hj ohlj pa cedxjotj
pmj ~xa`zdpcwcps gxai aej pa op ljotp pra paet xjtzlpceb cepa o``cpcaeol cedaij,
cedxjotj ce j}~axpt ag gaa` bxocet, dappae oe` gxzcpt oe` wjbjpohljt rmcdm rcll o``
pa j}~axp joxecebt ag ^ofctpoe% Rcpm pmj dlciopj dmoebj pofceb ~lodj rcpm oll pmj
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blodcjxt ce Mciolosot rmcdm oxj baceb pa ijlp, rj oxj baceb pa mowj `cggcdzlpcjt ce
gzpzxj `zj pa blahol roxiceb%
b% Datp ag @aceb Hztcejtt ct Mcbm% ^ofctpoe ct xoefj` oiaeb pmj happai molg
ag pmj xoefcebt ag pmj dazepxcjt rmjxj datp ag `aceb hztcejtt ct qzcpj mcbm% Cp ct
eap mcbm gax oes ~oxpcdzlox xjotae hzp hjdoztj ag azx hzxjozdxods papolls tcppceb
ae pmjcx tjopt rcpmazp pofceb odpcaet ax `jdctcaet ce pcij% Zeljtt pmjxj ct taij
~xjttzxj ax cedjepcwj gax pmji, pmj eaxiol hztcejttjt ~oxpcdzloxls pmj tioll oe`
ij`czi hztcejttjt mowj tjxcazt ~xahljit op pmj moe`t ag hzxjozdxods% Jwje cg
rj mowj cewjtpaxt rma oxj rjldaij` hs pmj gj`jxol bawjxeijep, rmje cp daijt
`are pa ~xawcedcol oe` ladol bawjxeijept pmjxj oxj bcwje o xze oxaze` pmj loe`
ct eap owoclohlj, pmj ropjx ct eap owoclohlj, pmj bot ct eap owoclohlj, jljdpxcdcps ct
eap owoclohlj, xao` ct eap owoclohlj% Lodf ag daax`ceopcae oiaeb woxcazt
bawjxeijep objedcjt, ceezijxohlj lort oe` xjbzlopcaet pmop oxj oepcqzopj` oe`
azp`opj` mowj ~xawj` pa hj tjxcazt ci~j`cijept% Lohazx lort, cet~jdpcaet hs
izlpc~lj objedcjt, pmj `jlost ce pmj dazxp tstpji, cegxcebjijep ag cepjlljdpzol
~xa~jxps xcbmpt oe` jwotcae ag po}jt hs dai~jpceb gcxit ce pmj cegaxiol tjdpax
mowj xje`jxj` taij ag pmj rjll jtpohlctmj` gcxit ze~xagcpohlj, ax pmj gjotchclcps ag
tpoxpceb ejox wjepzxjt qzjtpcaeohlj%
m% Dxctct ag Bawjxeoedj oe` Ci~ljijepopcae Rjofejttjt% Cg rj bloedj ae
~alcds `adzijept ag woxcazt bawjxeijept ae j`zdopcae, obxcdzlpzxj, mjolpm, pxo`j
~alcds jpd, oe` laaf op pmj toij ~alcds gaxps sjoxt oba oe` pmj ~xahljit, pmjxj ct
mox`ls oes tcbecgcdoep xjdax` ag ci~ljijepopcae ag pmatj ~alcdcjt ax ~loet awjx pmct
~jxca`% Rj ~xa`zdj gcwj sjoxt ~loet oe` oll fce`t ag ij`czi pjxi gxoijraxft,
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hzp cp ct pmj ~aax bawjxeoedj oe` ci~ljijepopcae pmop oxj pmj rjof lceft ce
bjppceb pmcebt `aej% Zeljtt rj tpxjebpmje dcwcl tjxwcdjt oe` hxceb ohazp o ijxcp
hotj` tstpji ag xjdxzcpijep, ~xaiapcae, ~jxgaxioedj jwolzopcae, dai~jetopcae,
`ctdc~lceoxs odpcae, jpd, rj rcll eap hj ohlj pa tjj oes `cggjxjedj ce pmj qzolcps ag
bawjxeoedj% Ax`jxt oxj bcwje hs pmj mcbmjx z~t hzp pmjs oxj eap doxxcj` azp6
tziioxcjt oxj o~~xawj`, hzp pmjs xjioce hzxcj` ce pmj gcljt oe` pmjxjgaxj6
rmjpmjx cp ct j`zdopcae, mjolpm, ropjx tz~~ls, xjwjezj ax lor oe` ax`jx, saz doe
~ce `are pmj ~xahlji pa pmj bawjxeoedj cttzjt% Zeljtt rj gc} pmj bawjxeoedj
cttzj, pmj jdaeais ct eap baceb pa pofj agg op pmj t~jj` rmcdm ct xjqzcxj`%
k% Zedjxpoceps oe` Ze~xj`cdpohclcps `zj pa Lodf ag Daepcezcps% Jwjxs
bawjxeijep rmjpmjx iclcpoxs ax dcwclcoe tpoxpt rcpm o dljoe tlopj, ot cg eapmceb
mo~~jej` hjgaxj pmji oe` eapmceb rcll mo~~je ogpjx pmji% Pmct ct eap pmj ros
pmj xjol raxl` raxft% Saz pofj pmj ~xakjdpt oe` ~xabxoiijt rmcdm rjxj cecpcopj`
hs pmj ~xjwcazt bawjxeijept, jwolzopj pmji ot pa rmop pmj tpxjebpmt oe`
rjofejttjt rjxj, gc} pmatj rjofejttjt oe` doxxs pmji gaxrox`% Cp rcll pofj aels
gjr sjoxt pa hxceb pmjtj cemjxcpj` ~xakjdpt pa dai~ljpcae oe` pmj dazepxs rcll
hjejgcp gxai ejr iapax rost, ejr ~axpt, mcbmrost, j`zdopcaeol cetpcpzpcaet jpd%
Hzp pmj hloij boij ag tzddjttcwj bawjxeijept xjtzlpt cepa ohxz~p pjxiceopcae ag
oll tzdm ~xakjdpt oe` ~xabxoit% Rmje pmjtj oxj xjtzij` pmj datp mot jtdolopj`
pmxjj pcijt oe` cp pofjt tjwjxol o``cpcaeol sjoxt pa dai~ljpj pmji% Ce pmj
ijoermclj pmj ~ja~lj ag ^ofctpoe tzggjx hjdoztj ag pmct lodf ag daepcezcps% Rmje
godj` rcpm tzdm ze~xj`cdpohclcps ohazp pmj gzpzxj, pmj cewjtpaxt oxj ~ae`jxceb
rmjpmjx pmjs tmazl` cewjtp ce pmct dazepxs ot pmjs oxj zedjxpoce rmjpmjx pmj ejr
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bawjxeijep rmje daijt ce razl` tpa~ ax olpjx rmop pmj ~xjwcazt bawjxeijep
rot `aceb, ax o`mjxj pa pmj daiicpijept io`j pa pmji% Pofj pmj j}oi~lj ag
Mcbmjx J`zdopcae Daiicttcae, rmcdm rot tje`ceb ?2>> tpz`jept gax ^m@t
ohxao` hzp pmj ejr bawjxeijep daijt ce oe` tzt~je`t pmj gze`ceb ag pmatj
~xabxoiijt% Pmct talwj` `are pmj ~xadjtt ag godzlps `jwjla~ijep gax azx
zecwjxtcpcjt op o pcij rmje rj tmazl` mowj hjje tje`ceb prcdj ot ioes
tdmaloxt%
f% ^alcpcdol Tpohclcps, Lor oe` Ax`jx!Tjdzxcps% Pmj awjxoll oxdmceb pmjij ct pmop
gax o xahztp jdaeais rj tmazl` mowj ~alcpcdol tpohclcps, lor oe` ax`jx oe`
tjdzxcps% Pmj Oxij` Gaxdjt ag ^ofctpoe `jtjxwj bxopcpz`j gax rmop pmjs mowj
`aej ce Iolofoe` @cwctcae pa hxceb ohazp tpohclcps ot gox ot pmj lor oe` ax`jx
tcpzopcae ct daedjxej`% Pmj taaejx pmj dazepxs ct bappje xc` ag pmct ciobj ag
~alcpcdol cetpohclcps, ~aax lor oe` ax`jx tcpzopcae oe` cetjdzxcps, rmjxjhs cewjtpaxt
gxai oll awjx pmj raxl` mjtcpopj ce daiceb pa ^ofctpoe oe` cewjtp, rj rcll eap hj
ohlj pa iofj oes ~xabxjtt ce pmct dazepxs% Ce 8>>2, ^ofctpoe rot aej ag pmj iatp
gowazxcpj dazepxcjt oiaeb pmj cepjxeopcaeol cewjtpax daiizecps% O pmcxps sjox
~cjdj ag ~o~jx rot glaopj` rmcdm rot o hae` gax ^ofctpoe pa hj ~oc` ce 8>42 oe`
^ofctpoe bap gazx pcijt awjx tzhtdxc~pcae op o ~xcdj rmcdm rot aels 4>> hotct
~acept ohawj pmj ZT pxjotzxs% Wjxs gjr dazepxcjt doe dloci pa mowj pmop fce` ag
dxj`chclcps rcpm cepjxeopcaeol gze` ioeobjxt% Marjwjx, ce pra sjoxt pcij rj mowj
icttj` pmop haop% Pmjxjgaxj, cp ct ci~jxopcwj pmop rj xjtzij pmj kazxejs rmcdm
mot hjje cepjxxz~pj` hs ezxpzxceb o tpohlj, tjdzxj oe` ~jodjgzl ~alcpcdol
jewcxaeijep%
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rj oxj kztp baceb pa hj ljgp hjmce` hjdoztj pmj raxl` jdaeais ct baceb pa hj o
fearlj`bj hotj` jdaeais% Cp ct eap oe jdaeais rmjxj saz ijiaxc{j iopjxcol
ax xj~xa`zdj pmop ce pmj j}oi oe` gaxbjp ohazp cp ) pmop ct ea laebjx pmj dotj% Aej
mot pa odqzcxj pmj fearlj`bj oe` ztj cp ce ax`jx pa o~~ls pa ~xahlji talwceb% Pmct
ct o ejr ~oxo`cbi rmjxj mzioe do~cpol ct ot ci~axpoep ot iodmcejxs oe`
jqzc~ijep% ^ofctpoe lobt hjmce` apmjx dazepxcjt ce pmj cetpcpzpcaet, cegxotpxzdpzxj
oe` cedjepcwjt gax mzioe do~cpol gaxiopcae% Rj mowj ea dmacdj hzp pa oddjljxopj
pmj ~odj pa dopdm z~ rcpm apmjxt%
d% Ztj ag Pjdmealabs% Pmj pjdmealabs ct t~xjo`ceb lcfj o rcl` gcxj% Mar ioes
~ja~lj gcwj sjoxt oba dazl` mowj pmazbmp pmop jwje ce o tioll paret oe` wcllobjt
ag ^ofctpoe, aej razl` oddjtt pa iahclj pjlj~maejt% 3: icllcae ^ofctpoect mowj
iahclj ~maejt pa`os% Saz doe ztj pmct pjdmealabs ce ax`jx pa ~xawc`j pmji
hoefceb tjxwcdjt, cegaxiopcae ae dlciopj!rjopmjx, obxcdzlpzxj j}pjetcae, mjolpm,
j`zdopcae jpd% Cp ct o ~arjxgzl paal rmcdm doe ljo~gxab o lap ag pcij rmcdm rj mowj
rotpj`% Ztceb pjdmealabs ~oxpcdzloxls pmj cegaxiopcae!daiizecdopcae pjdmealabs
gax pmj hjppjxijep ag tadcol oe` jdaeaicd ~xahljit ag ^ofctpoe ct taijpmceb
rmcdm ejj`t pa hj `aej hzp cp doeeap hj `aej pmj ros rj mowj
dai~oxpijepolc{j` pmct cepa `cggjxjep icectpxcjt% O iaxj malctpcd oe`
dai~xjmjetcwj o~~xaodm pmop `j~last pjdmealabs gax ~awjxps xj`zdpcae mot pa hj
~zp ce ~lodj%
`% Sazeb Lohazx Gaxdj% ^ofctpoe ct aej ag pmj gjr dazepxcjt rmcdm mot o sazeb
lohazx gaxdj rmcdm doe hj moxejttj` gax cpt are oe` blahol jdaeais% Ko~oe,
Jzxa~j, ZTO oe` ogpjx 8>:> Dmceo oxj baceb pa mowj obceb ~a~zlopcae rmjxj pmj
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xopca ag al` pa sazeb ~ja~lj ct baceb pa cedxjotj% Ce`co oe` ^ofctpoe oxj pra
dazepxcjt rmjxj pmj xopca ag sazebjx ~ja~lj pa pmj al`jx aejt ct baceb pa
cedxjotj% Cg rj paal pmjtj sazeb ije oe` raije ~xa~jxls, rj cedxjotj pmj
gjiolj lohazx gaxdj ~oxpcdc~opcae, bcwj pmji tfcllt oe` fearlj`bj, pmjs doe
hjdaij pmj lohazx gaxdj gax pmj xjtp ag pmj raxl`% Pmct rcll bcwj o hcb haatp pa
^ofctpoet are jdaeais% Ce 8>>?, raxfjx xjicppoedjt rjxj ljtt pmoe o hcllcae
`alloxt6 pa`os rj mowj oliatp 2)= hcllcae `alloxt% Ear pmct doe hj izlpc~lcj` hs
pmxjj ax gazx pcijt cg rj mowj j`zdopj` lohazx gaxdj c%j% tfcllj` lohazx gaxdj baceb
gax awjxtjot ji~lasijep% Pmct ct olta o ros pa dxjopj ji~lasijep a~~axpzecpcjt
hjdoztj cg saz mowj loxbj ezihjx ag sazebjx ~ja~lj daiceb pa lohazx gaxdj oe`
saz `aep mowj kah a~~axpzecpcjt gax pmji saz doe mowj tadcol z~mjowol%
Pmjxjgaxj, cp ct ci~jxopcwj pa dxjopj ji~lasijep a~~axpzecpcjt gax pmji oe` aej
ag pmj owjezjt ct pa pxoce pmji ce pmj fce` ag pmj tfcllt rmcdm oxj ejj`j` eap aels
hs pmj eopcaeol jdaeais hzp olta hs pmj cepjxeopcaeol jdaeais%
j% Bawjxeoedj, @jwalzpcae oe` @jdjepxolc{opcae% Ot pmj ~a~zlopcae ct
cedxjotceb, aej doeeap bawjxe ^ofctpoe tcppceb ce Ctloioho`, Foxodmc, Lomaxj,
^jtmorox ax _zjppo% Aej mot pa `jwalwj ~arjxt, `jdjepxolc{j oe` `jljbopj
ozpmaxcps, ~xawc`j xjtazxdjt pa pmj ladol!`ctpxcdp bawjxeijept ta pmop pmjs doe
pofj `jdctcaet op pmjcx are% Pmatj `jdctcaet razl` hj wjxs izdm ce oddax`oedj
rcpm pmj xjqzcxjijept oe` pmj ejj`t ag pmatj daiizecpcjt% Tcppceb ce Ctloioho`
aej doeeap wctzolc{j rmop ct ejj`j` ce Dmobmc ax Laxoloc, hzp pmj ~ja~lj ce
Laxoloc oe` Dmobmc fear j}odpls rmjpmjx pmjs ejj` ropjx, gjxpclc{jxt ax gxzcp
~xadjttceb ce`ztpxs% Ljp zt `jwalwj ~arjxt pa pmj ~ja~lj op pmj bxottxaapt ljwjl
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oe` pmjxj razl` hj izdm hjppjx olladopcae oe` zpclc{opcae ag xjtazxdjt% Pmjxj
iztp, marjwjx, hj oddazepohclcps ag pmj ladol bawjxeijept hs pmj ~xawcedcol
bawjxeijept oe` ag ~xawcedcol bawjxeijept hs pmj gj`jxol bawjxeijep hzp eap
cepjxgjxjedj ax ztzx~opcae ag ~arjxt% Cg rj `a pmop, pmje o lap iaxj doe mo~~je
rcpm toij oiazep ag xjtazxdjt rmcdm oxj hjceb rotpj` pa`os, oe` pmj jdaeaicd
bxarpm xopj doe hj xoctj` gxai 7)2 ~jxdjep owjxobj pa =)3 ~jxdjep oeezolls%