Pakistan 2010 Floods Damage and Needs Assessment Draft...
Transcript of Pakistan 2010 Floods Damage and Needs Assessment Draft...
Pakistan Floods 2010
Damage and Needs Assessment
Pakistan Development Forum
Islamabad 14, 15 November 2010
THE PURPOSE OF THE DNA IS TO ASSESS THE DAMAGE AND LOSSES CAUSED AND CALCULATE THE COST OF RECONSTRUCTION
Objective of the DNA:To provide the strategic underpinnings for medium- to long-term post-floods reconstruction and recovery planning, prioritization, and programming
an overview of sector level
program strategies and policy
options
based on cost of replacing what
was lost with a build back
better/smarter factor
based on replacing permanent
assets and services
a quantification of public needs
requirements
prescriptive, does not present
a menu of projects
inclusive of development costs
‘Early Recovery’ – defined as
transitional services- these are
covered in UN report
Inclusive of private needs
requirements
The DNA IS… The DNA is NOT…
Snapshot of DNA Methodology
Needs Estimation
Impact Analysis
Damage & Losses
Post-disaster performance
Baseline analysis
* Sector by sector
*Macro
*Recovery & Reconstruction
* Pre-disaster performance
THE DNA USES THE ECLAC METHODOLOGY WHICH HAS BEEN USED IN POST-DISASTER ASSESSMENT FOR OVER THIRTY YEARS
DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS BEEN CONDUCTED THROUGH DATA VERIFICATIONS WHILE NEEDS ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON ANALYSIS AND POLICY DECISIONS
Direct Damages: monetary value of the
completely or partially destroyed assets
immediately following the disaster
Indirect Losses: income losses, change of flow
of goods and services, increased expenses,
curtailed production and diminished revenue,
arising from direct damage to production
capacity and social and economic infrastructure
Reconstruction Costs: cost of rebuilding lost
assets and restoring lost services. Generally
assessed at the replacement cost with a
premium added for build back better/smarter
based on policy decisions
Data collection & verification Data analysis & policy decisions
Sectoral profiles based on:
1. Data from questionnaires
2. Secondary data
Verification through:
1. Field visits by sector teams
2. Interviews with stakeholders
3. Desk reviews
4. Satellite imagery
5. Other plausibility checks
Scope
16 Sectors
Composition of Sectoral
Teams
Mix of WB/ADB staff
Relevant One UN
organizations
Bilaterals engagement
through 20 experts
1 Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries WB
2 Disaster Risk Management WB
3 Economic Assessment WB
4 Education WB
5 Energy ADB
6 Environment WB
7 Financial Sector WB
8 Governance ADB
9 Health ADB
10 Housing WB
11 Irrigation and Flood Management ADB
12 Private Sector & Industries WB
13 Social ADB
14 Social Protection and Livelihoods WB
15 Transport ADB
16 Water & Sanitation ADB
EXPERT TEAMS HAVE BEEN WORKING TO GATHER, VALIDATE AND ANALYSE DATA ACROSS SEVETEEN SECTORS SINCE [date]
SectorUSD millions Needs: Option 1
USD millions
Option 2
USD millions
Option 3
USD millions
Irrigation 278 427 427 982
Housing 1,588 1,483 1,690 2,206
Agriculture 5,045 257 670 1,049
Transport & Communications 1,328 2,356 2,356 2,356
Energy 309 106 106 106
Livelihoods support 683 683 683
Private sector 282 102 102 129
Education 311 505 505 505
Health 50 49 49 49
Water & Sanitation 109 74 74 94
Governance 70 58 58 58
Financial 674 463 463 463
Environment 12 209 209 209
DRM 27 27 27
Total 10,056 6,799 7,418 8,915
SUMMARY OF DAMAGE AND NEEDS
Province
Crop Area
Damaged (000
ha)
Large Animals
(000 head)
Small Animals
(incl. sheep,
goal) 000
Poultry
Perished (000)
Watercourses
Damages Nos
AJK 33.1 0.3 0.3 11.7 657
Balochistan 132.4 139.6 1,036.7 625.5 47
FATA 7.2 6.2 8.4 101.2 n/a
Gilgit Baltistan 7.9 1.3 10.8 12.9 960
Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa 121.4 72.4 67.8 621.3 1,790
Punjab 746.8 2.3 2.5 2012 2,598
Sindh 1,043.5 93.7 81.9 6,895.1 6,990
Total 2,092.6 315.6 1,208.3 10,279.7 13,042
Large Animals = Cattle, Buffaloes, Camels, Horse, Donkey Fishery/Ponds lost in FATA included in estimates for Pakhtunkhwa
AGRICULTURE SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES
AGRICULTURE SECTOR POLICY OPTIONS
Option 1: Low
compensation
scenario
Crops ,small- and medium-size farmers with up to 10 ha of land to be provided with essential inputs (seed, fertilizer, and land preparation costs) for wheat in upcoming Rabi season and the subsidy amount would be equivalent to about 80% of total expenses needed for sowing on one ha of landLivestock ,those living below poverty line will be provided a compensation of around 2-3 small animals or one large animal (approximately 50% of their pre-flood holdings), On-farm irrigation 40% of total damaged watercourses will be rehabilitatedFisheries, around 50% of total recovery needs of the fishing community to be compensated in the form of subsidy
Option 2: Preferred
compensation
scenario:
Option 3: High
compensation
scenario
Crops, small- and medium-size farmers with up to 10 ha of land will be provided with essential inputs (seed, fertilizer, and land preparation costs) for wheat in upcoming Rabi season and the subsidy amount would be equivalent to about 80% of total expenses needed for sowing on three ha of landLivestock, those living below poverty line will be compensated (same as previous scenario), plus those iving above the line, will be compensated about 30% of their total lost animalsOn-farm irrigation, 60% of total damaged watercourses will be rehabilitated.Fisheries, around 50% of total recovery needs of the fishing community to be compensated in the form of subsidy.Crops, small- and medium-size farmers with up to 10 ha of land will be provided with essential inputs (seed, fertilizer, and land preparation costs) for wheat in upcoming Rabi season and the subsidy amount would be equivalent to about 80% of total expenses needed for sowing on five ha of land.Livestock, those living below poverty line will be compensated 50% of their lost animals (same as previous scenario), plus those living above that threshold, will be compensated about 50% of their total lost animals.On-farm irrigation, 80% of total damaged watercourses will be rehabilitated.Fisheries, around 50% of total recovery needs of the fishing community shall be compensated in the form of subsidy.
AGRICULTURE SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS
ProvinceDamage
USD millions
Needs: Option 1
USD millions
Option 2
USD millions
Option 3
USD millions
AJK 24 5 13 22
Balochistan 427 49 133 190
FATA 37 1 5 8
Gilgit Baltistan 22 3 6 8
Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa396 23 67 107
Punjab 1,838 60 160 262
Sindh 2,302 96 266 432
Sector Total 5,045 238 650 1,028*
*This total does not include the costs for Key Intervention Area 2 (Improving Policy and
Regulatory Frameworks) worth USD 20 million.
DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Institutional
development and
capacity building
Develop climate
change strategy
Integration of pre-existing parallel structures for DRM at Federal and Provincial levels for synergizing and increased coordination and capacity building
Enhance early
warning systems
Development of a national climate change strategy framework backed by policy legislation & capacity building of key institutions and raising awareness
Restoring and enhancing the performance of key elements of the country’s flood early warning system and development of a national multi-hazard Integrated decision support and alert system
Increase
community
preparedness &
awareness
Promoting community based disaster risk management (CBDRM) and education – increasing awareness on DRM
Hazard Mapping
and risk transfer
mechanisms
Early initiation and completion of national multi-hazard risk mapping to define the national hazard risk environment and also develop a strategy for catastrophe risk financing
DRM SECTOR NEEDS Interventions Reconstructio
n Needs in
USD Millions
1 Management study of NDMA and existing parallel DRM structures for assimilation 0.5
2 Development of a central MIS System at NDMA with appropriate linkages with
Federal, Provincial and District Response Agencies – including aid tracking and
management systems at all levels
2
3 Technical assistance and hardware support for NDMA, PDMAs and
operationalization of DDMAs in 30 priority districts
5
4 Social mobilization and training communities on preparedness/response in 30
priority/high-risk districts (including equipment for first responders)
3
5 Flood hazard mapping 2
6 GIS-based inundation profiling and of coastal districts 1
7 Development of a multi-hazard national Integrated Decision Support and Alert
System with focus on Flood-related Disaster Management (NIMS)
5
8 Assessment and identification of potential disaster risk insurance options and
development of a strategy for catastrophe risk financing mechanisms and solutions
including some piloting
2
9 Strengthening the capacity of national climate change centers and creating
awareness on climate change issues
2.5
10 Development and Integration of DRM in education and awareness building at all
levels
3
11 Develop capacity for carrying out various assessments, such as multi-hazard risk
assessments and damage and needs assessments (DNA)
1
Total 27
Economic Assessment
Overall Assessment
Adverse Impact
Overall damage is estimated at 6 percent of 2009/10 GDP Agriculture has been the most severely affected sector,
(50 percent of the estimated cost of overall damages)
Economic Growth likely to suffer deceleration Monthly inflation registering the highest increase in over two
years Public finances would also be affected due to large-scale increase
in flood-related expenditures Floods may add significantly to the budget deficit in 2010/11 Balance of payment is likely to come under pressure as exports
would slow down and imports accelerate.
Prov./ Area Schools CollegesVocational
Institutions
AJK 194 4 -
Balochistan 557 - -
FATA 176 - -
GB 79 2 -
KPK 870 13 17
Punjab 2,817 4 4
Sindh 5,655 - -
Total10,348 23 21
EDUCATION SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES
EDUCATION SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Immediately Start
Learning-Teaching
Process
• This will restore confidence of people in government and service delivery• Educational institutions shall need shelter, students would need books and
other learning materials, teachers will need orientation to meet the psycho-socio needs of the students who suffered at the hands of disaster.
Consolidate
Educational
Facilities
• Minimize wastage and under/over-utilization of facilities • Could include; (a) maximizing pre-existing learning spaces (b) combining
schools with low enrollment, incl. combining boys and girls primary schools in the same village ; (c) not constructing non-functional schools;
• Assess enrollment capacity with actual enrollment before floods of each damaged institution to inform decisions about closure or merge
Conduct Facility-by-
Facility Survey
• This will help in assessing actual reconstruction needs of each facility and help in making consolidation decisions
• Experienced teams of surveyors and data analysts with capability to map facilities will be required
Prioritize
Reconstruction
• Rehabilitate rural girls schools followed by rural male• Reconstruct partially damaged schools prior to fully damaged
Reconstruction work
Requires Different
Approach From
Development
Work
• Government construction agencies and private contractors hired by them cannot carry out alone the reconstruction work spread mostly over rural areas • Existing Parent Teacher Associations and School Councils to have enhanced role in rehabilitation and maintenance of schools
EDUCATION SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS
Province / AreaDamage
USD millions
Reconstruction
USD millions
AJK 9.9 14.4
Balochistan 9.1 15.4
FATA 4.9 7.3
Gilgit Baltistan 3.9 6.4
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 33.6 52.9
Punjab 92.7 139.7
Sindh 157.1 268.7
Sector Total 311.3 504.8
Power Sector: Physical Damage
Asset
Type
Grid
Stn(no
s)
Transmissi
on Lines
(km)
Distributio
n Lines
(km)
Distributi
on
Trsfmr(no
s)
Customer
(nos)
Hydro
Plants (1)
(nos)
Thermal
Plants
(nos)
Completely
Destroyed1 65 2,799 5,290 106,299
Partially
Damaged31 96 434 340 27,421 91 1
•Includes 60 micro hydro plants in GB and 15 in FATA, and 6 mini hydro plants in AJK.
Oil
Refinerie
s (nos)
Oil
Pipelin
e (km)
Oil
Depots
(nos)
Petrol
Stations (1)
(nos)
Gas
Transmission
Distribution (
2) (locations)
LPG
Facilities
(locations)
CNG
Stations
(location
)
Oil/Gas
Field (site
)
Completely
Destroyed10 5
Partially
Damaged1 274 3 125 310 1 10 15
Petroleum Sector : Physical Damage
CNG= compressed natural gas; km=kilometer; LPG = liquefied petroleum gas. (1) Indicative assessment. Some of these stations have already been restored.(2) Major locations include pipeline segments, stations, rural and urban towns/districts, camps, etc., as reported by
gas companies
ENERGY SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES
ENERGY SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Strategies
Policy Actions
Power Sector
• First priority: restore basic services.
• Second priority: rehabilitate supporting infrastructure.
• Third priority: restore projects that were completely damaged or under construction.
Policy Actions
Petroleum Sector
• Unrecovered receivables from customers in the affected areas.• Compensation to PSPs for providing free electricity to flood affectees.
• Payment of losses to public sector companies for relief operations and damages. • Payment of unrecovered receivables from affected gas customers to public sector companies.
ENERGY SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS
Entity Damage
USD millions
Reconstruction
USD millions
Generation 110.3 -
Transmission 1 -
Distribution 43.2 -
Total Power 154.5 73.8
Oil Downstream 47.5 -
Gas Downstream 72.8 -
Upstream Oil & Gas 34.6 -
Total Oil & Gas 154.9 32.5
National Total 309.4 106.3
ENVIRONMENT SECTOR STRATEGY & POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Address immediate
issues relating to
environmental
health
Initiate non-
structural
interventions to
control floods
• For example:• contaminated drinking water, • disease vectors, • safe waste disposal, • debris disposal,• hazardous wastes
Initiate additional
studies for existing
data gaps
• Will reduce the impacts of floods and complement conventional structural interventions
• Include flood protection plans, land use plans, regulatory and institutional strengthening, phased recovery of natural systems, and others.
• Existing data gaps include:• landslides• stagnant water• campsites restoration• toxic/hazardous spills• cultural heritage
ENVIRONMENT SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS
Interventions
Reconstructio
n Costs USD
millions
Institutional Strengthening, Planning, and Capacity Building to Reduce the Risk of
Floods
2,236
Damages to Forests and Wildlife Resources 992
Restoration of Forests, Riverine Vegetation, Wetlands, and Mangroves 9,001
Environmental Health 637
Management of Solid, Hazardous, and Medical Waste and Debris 4,846
Additional Studies 34
Total (PKR million) 17,746
Total (US$ million) 209
FINANCIAL SECTOR ESTIMATED LOSSES
Sectors
Physical Damage Loan Losses Total
USD million USD millionUSD
million
Public
Sector
Private
Sector
Public
Sector
Private
Sector
Banks 0.48 0.41 438 178 617
MF Sector (MFI & MFBs) 0.4 25 26
Leasing 16 16
Insurance 15 15
Total 0.48 0.81 438 234 674
FINANCIAL SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Increase Financial
Inclusion –expand
outreach thru fresh
credit
• Extending fresh credit in the affected areas essential for revival of business activities, particularly Agriculture and Medium and Small Medium Enterprises (MSMEs.)
• Will require concerted efforts and flexible & new products to expand outreach to cater to the emerging needs.
• Partial Credit Guarantee/ Risk Sharing Facility can be structured with a funded 1st loss in the range 5 – 15 percent with commercial banks sharing credit risk at least of 50 percent.
Support business
activity thru Loan
Restructuring
Encourage new
business activity thru
Liquidity Support
Build Livelihoods
with MFI support
• Could be moratorium on existing loans in affected districts to allow businesses to recuperate.
• Rescheduling/ restructuring can be done with some subsidy in interest rates but targeted with well defined eligibility criteria.
• Measures must be time bound – 2 years could be a reasonable period.
• Availability of the line of funding with some subsidy provided by State Bank ofPakistan (SBP) targeted for agri and MSME sectors in flood affected districts. Also, certain exemptions in creation of provisions for banks.
• Priority households should be identified by communities
• No blanket write-offs. Banks/ Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs) to do detailed assessment and write-offs if any to be done on a case to case basis.
• Possible Risk Mitigation/ capital protection fund for MFIs to continue their on-lending activities and efforts to build livelihoods.
FINANCIAL SECTOR - NEEDS ASSESSMENT OF RECOVERY OF
BUSINESS
Sectors
Recovery Estimate
USD million
Public
Sector
Private
SectorTotal
Banks 328.96 94.64 423.60
MF Sector (MFI & MFBs) 39.44 39.44
Total 328.96 134.07 463.04
Provinces/
National
District level
(No.)
Sub
Division/Tehsil
level
(No.)
UC/ Village level
(No.)
AJK 6 2 0
Balochistan 3 8 16
FATA 0 26 0
Gilgit Baltistan 5 12 21
Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa112 263 505
Punjab 22 40 65
Sindh 45 184 102
Total193 535 709
GOVERNANCE SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES
GOVERNANCE SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY
RECOMMENDATIONS
Augment capacities
Use and strengthen
existing Public
Financial Management
(PFM) Systems
• Provinces and districts to mobilize / augment staff resources to meet Reconstruction & Rehabilitation (R&R) needs• Lack of capacities will result in implementation delays, cost overruns and
stakeholder frustration
Adopt Fast-track
Procurement
Improve
intergovernmental
coordination
Address Grievances
Expeditiously
• Ensure adequate and timely fund flow, remove duplications in authorizing fund release, track and reconcile expenditures, and establish accountabilities
• Weak PFM will result in delayed implementation & misuse of funds
• Provide for “fast-track” procurement with built-in transparency and accountability
• Adopting “business-as-usual” procurement procedures will slow down implementation.
• Establish robust grievance resolution mechanisms; formal and alternate dispute resolution mechanisms to be considered
• Unresolved disputes will disrupt reconstruction activity
• Mechanisms for vertical coordination between federal, provincial, and district governments and similarly mechanisms for horizontal coordination between various departments to be clarified
• Ineffective coordination will lead to duplication and implementation delays
GOVERNANCE SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS
Province Damage
USD millions
Needs
USD millions
AJK 1.03 1.59
Balochistan 1.32 0.44
FATA 0.31 0.48
Gilgit Baltistan 0.89 0.78
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 19.65 17.96
Punjab 11.27 2.22
Sindh 35.83 34.19
Sector Total 70.31 57.65
Province/Region Total Health
Facilities of All
Categories
Number of Damaged
Health Facilities
Azad J. Kashmir 616 39
Balochistan 2,075 45
FATA 364 30
Gilgit Baltistan 731 3
Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa1,739 190
Punjab 2,891 57
Sindh 1,305 151
TOTAL 9,721 515
HEALTH SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES
HEALTH SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Commitment to
provision and delivery
of quality health
services
Increase sector
performance by
introducing innovative
measures
Ministry of Health (MoH)/Department of Health (DoH) remain committed to provision and delivery of health services and strengthen reform efforts in health sector
MoH/DoH improve and strengthen health systems management by applying best practices in governance, financial, and human resource management
Improve disaster
preparedness and
response
Reconstruction
decision to be taken
after detailed damage
and need assessment
MoH/DoH increase sector performance by introducing innovative measures, such as public-private partnership, out-contracting, etc.
System inefficiencies, mismanagement, and lack of accountability in the existing system warrants out-of-the-box thinking and breaking away from the stereotypes
MoH/DoH address cross cutting issues: protection of vulnerable groups (women, mothers, children, elderly), micro-nutrition requirements, etc.
In the absence of good governance and proper sector management, mere increased resource allocation will not produce desired results
MoH/DoHs improve efficiency of disaster preparedness and response at all levels with short and medium/long term plans
Staff at district and tehsil levels be trained to respond to emergencies and take lead in coordinating with National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)/ Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) and international organizations in emergency response, DNAs, Early Recovery Plans, etc.
Government of Pakistan/DoH to take into consideration the pre-flood utilization rates and vulnerability to natural hazards of the damaged facilities, carry out a detailed damage assessment and cost-benefit analysis to facilitate decision for repairing/ reconstructing/doing-away the facilities
Better site selection and proper planning will help improve availability of and accessibility to health services
Protection of
vulnerable groups and
addressing
malnutrition
HEALTH SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS
Province Damage
USD millions
Reconstruction
USD millions
AJK 2.4 2.3
Balochistan 2.2 2.1
FATA 1.08 1.06
Gilgit Baltistan 0.03 0.03
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 16.7 16.4
Punjab 4.8 4.7
Sindh 22.6 22.2
Total 49.68 48.84
HOUSING SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES
ProvinceNumber of houses
damaged
Damage Value
USD millions
AJK 6,843 10
Baluchistan 79,720 97
FATA 5,419 4
Gilgit Baltistan 3,157 5
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 257,294 226
Punjab 375,773 322
Sindh 879,978 925
Sector Total 1,608,184 1,588
HOUSING SECTOR POLICY OPTIONS
Support Hazard -
Resistant
Reconstruction to
secure future
investments
•Base Case: Restore to pre-flood conditions; uniform katcha-standard. Subsidy of PKR 100,000 for reconstruction; PKR 50,000 for repairs. Not Recommended
• Option 2: Restore to flood-resistant standard. Subsidy of PKR 180,000 for reconstruction of flood-resistant hybrid house; PKR 50,000 for repairs. Recommended for Punjab & Sindh only
• Option 3: Restore to multi-hazard-resistant standard. Subsidy of PKR 415,000 for reconstruction of seismic-resistant pucca house; PKR 50,000 for repairs. Recommended
• All options assume unit size of 500 sq ft• Require assisted, inspected & certified tranche-basedreconstruction
Build-Back-
Smarter to
optimize costs
HOUSING SECTOR RECONSTRUCTION COSTS
Reconstruction Options:
1. Base case - Restore to pre-flood conditions; uniform kacha standard subsidy
2. Restore to flood-resistant standard; premium for flood-risk areas only
3. Restore to multi-hazard-resistant standard; premium for flood- and/or earthquake-risk areas only
All figures in USD millions
Province
Reconstruction
option 1 (Base Case)
Reconstruction
option 2
Reconstruction
option 3
Sindh 877 1,012 1,012
Punjab 296 365 365
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 207 210 488
Baluchistan 91 91 310
AJK 5 5 10
FATA 4 4 8
Gilgit Baltistan 4 4 13
Sector Total 1,483 1,690 2,206
IRRIGATION, DRAINAGE AND FLOOD SECTOR OVERVIEW OF
DAMAGES
ProvinceBarrages/ dams
(No)
Canal systems/
breaches
(No)
Irrigation
schemes
(No)
Flood
Embankment/
Spurs (No)
Drainage system
(No)
AJK 58
Balochistan 30 6 (80 locations) 50 55 9
FATA 66 52
Gilgit Baltistan 136
Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa 14 13 systems 7 5
Punjab 1 7 (315 locations) 87 8
Sindh 6 main systems 6 main systems 5
WAPDA 1 4 (25 breaches) 1
IRRIGATION AND FLOOD SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY
RECOMMENDATIONS
Principles and
strategy for
reconstruction
The sector’s reconstruction strategy considers immediate/short-term (year 1) and medium-term (year 2-3) measures:
Immediate - restoring irrigation supplies for the winter crops short-term – putting drainage systems and public tubewells back into operation; strengthening vulnerable and damaged components of the barrages, embankments and river training works;Medium-term – reconstructing significantly damaged infrastructure and “remodeling” of certain structures for building-back-better
Option 1
Option 2 -
preferred
Reconstruction with remodeling of selected damaged infrastructure
Reconstruction as for Option 1 PLUS measures for improved flood protection and management:
“building-back-safer” for critical settlements and urban areas prone to flash floods and river bank erosion in AJK, GB and KP expansion of the Flood Early Warning System to Swat, Peshawar and DG Khan areas revisit the country’s overall flood management strategy
IRRIGATION AND FLOOD SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION
COSTS
Province/ Region/
Agency
Damage
USD millions
Needs: Option 1
USD millions
Needs: Option 2
USD millions
AJK 0.2 0.2 11.4
Balochistan 29.6 45.6 45.6
FATA 3.0 4.6 17.6
Gilgit Baltistan 1.6 2.5 27.2
Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa
68.4 105.0 600.3
Punjab 33.1 50.9 50.9
Sindh 136.9 210.6 210.6
WAPDA 4.9 7.5 7.5
Pakistan
Met.Department
9.2
Federal Flood
Commission
2.0
Sector Total 277.6 427 982.3
PRIVATE SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES
Province Damaged
Industrial
Units
Damaged
Shops
Damaged
Mines
Damaged
Hotels
AJK - 494 - -
Balochistan - 6,519 - -
FATA - 217 - -
Gilgit Baltistan - 36 - -
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 89 17,617 236 85
Punjab 41 40,322 - -
Sindh 16 54,283 - -
Total 146 119,488 236 85
PRIVATE SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Option 1:
Facilitation Only
• Immediate restoration of normal business activities and some measures for long term sustainability• Facilitate establishment of Repair Centers in the affected districts• Business Development Centers should be established by the government for providing guidance to the entrepreneurs• In medium to long term, an ‘Enterprise Development Fund’ (EDF) should be established for SME development• Money from the proposed EDF should be used for supporting businesses for ‘building-back better’ by providing matching grants for market development, technological innovations, training and development, quality certifications, etc
Option 2: Facilitation
and Targeted
Subsidies
• Direct support through cash subsidies to selected number of the affected businesses• Support 40% of the affected shops by providing cash for rebuilding the lost structures and restocking of goods• Provide cash subsidies also to industrial sector to regenerate large number of jobs in minimum time• Since most of the damaged industrial units are SMEs, it is proposed to provide this subsidy to 70% of the damaged units (large units should not be eligible)• Another proposed support to industrial units is the subsidy in electricity bills for four months; support should be higher in initial months as an incentive to revive the units quickly• Similarly, cash subsidies should also be available to affected hotels and mines
PRIVATE SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS
Province
Damage
USD millions
Needs:
Option 1
Facilitation Only
Option 2
Facilitation &
targeted
subsidies
USD millions USD millions
AJK 0.6 1.21 1.3
Balochistan 10.4 5.1 6.6
FATA 0.3 1.11 1.1
Gilgit Baltistan 0.03 1.04 1.0
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 55.2 20.9 26.3
Punjab 76.8 26.9 34.2
Sindh 138.2 45.3 58.0
Sector Total 282 102 129
SOCIAL ASPECTS STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 1/2
Conduct Social and
Vulnerability
Assessment
Build Back Better
Lives
• Preexisting vulnerabilities have worsened. Women and children, already disadvantaged face the brunt of the disaster.
• Prior to finalizing recommendations roll out a vulnerability assessment with social and gender analysis collect both quantitative and qualitative data.
Remember ‘No One
Size Fits All’
• Each province has different dynamics. Pre-existing socio-economic differences, social relations ,geography and governance structures require a customized approach. Strengthen local government capacity to deliver services, partner with communities and CSOs.
• Building back infrastructure is not sufficient. Buildings are only as good as: services, access and affordability. Create opportunities. Distribute land, create assets , and support longer-term recovery
Support Community
Lead Reconstruction
with a communication
strategy
• Involving communities from the beginning improves the chances that recovery will be locally supported and sustainable. Loss of voice particularly for woman is a major risk. Put in place an effective communication strategy.
Respect Due
Process of Law
• “ Do No Further Harm” Hasty decision to relocate households from Katcha areas or consolidate communities must be accompanied by effective safeguards. Regional and international Law Precedents are available.
SOCIAL ASPECTS STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 2/2
Establish effective
Grievance
Lead by Example
• Put in place transparent grievance mechanisms
• Transparency builds trust. Regularly ,monitor budgets, set targets monitor expenditure and results. Disclose information.
• Conduct census to identify different social groups and target support for vulnerable groups. Develop a national rehabilitation Policy for Internally Displace People (IDPS). Opportunities exist for reviewing land administration and land management.
Conduct census and
Develop Policy
LIVELIHOOD & SOCIAL PROTECTION SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES
Province Total Households Affected
(Millions)
Total Households
Eligible for Cash
Grants (Millions)
AJK 0.12 0.04
Balochistan 0.13 0.10
FATA 0.03 0.01
GB 0.03 0.01
KPK 0.36 0.28
Punjab 1.11 0.56
Sindh 1.12 0.86
Total 2.90 1.92
LIVELIHOOD & SP SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY
RECOMMENDATIONS
Cash or Food
Support
Employment &
Asset Generating
Schemes
•Unconditional Cash Transfers recommended in areas where there is market access ; food support in other areas.•Conditional Cash Transfers linked to education and primary health in areas without supply side issues.
Disaster
Preparedness &
Coordination
• Government sponsored public works, to rebuild, repair larger social and economic infrastructure; provide temporary employment.•Community Works to offer temporary employment in micro-projects while building up community assets.•Asset building by mobilizing community resources for intra-community lending; micro-credit, savings, insurance•Skills development to enhance livelihood opportunities; based on rigorous needs analysis
•Mapping of disaster prone areas; emphasize building codes, environmental standards, land use planning •Coordinate federal and provincial safety net mechanisms to mitigate effects of future disasters, cope with immediate post-disaster effects•Adopt a common targeting instrument for data consistency and use in times of emergency – Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) offers a good platform to link safety net initiatives.
* Cash support is recommended for the initial 6 months for poor immediately affected
by the floods; whereas the following recommendations apply for the post 6 months period. encompassing all poor in the flood affected districts.
LIVELIHOOD & SOCIAL PROTECTION SECTOR DAMAGE AND
REHABILITATION COSTS
Province Total Households Eligible for
Cash Grants (Millions)
Cash Grants to
Households
(US$ million)
AJK 0.04 15.8
Balochistan 0.10 36.3
FATA 0.01 4.4
GB 0.01 3.9
KPK 0.28 100.3
Punjab 0.56 215.6
Sindh 0.86 306.9
Total 1.92 683
TRANSPORT SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES
* 10% of the total road network is affected out of which 7% roads are completely destroyed** The length figures show both completely and partially damaged roads
Railways 1,224 Km railway line damaged
Telecommunication Damages to 734 km transmission line, 284 transmission stations and 594
exchange centre
Aviation Minor damages to 4 airports
Roads Length of road
network affected (km)
Provinces National
Highways
Provincial
Highways
District &
Municipal Roads
Total
AJK 35 3,540 3,575
Baluchistan 5 367 1,705 2,077
FATA 294 963 1,257
Gilgit Baltistan 33 349 382
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 402 259 5,850 6,511
Punjab 53 281 2,485 2,819
Sindh 265 1,925 6,277 8,467
Total 793 3,125 21,170 25,088
TRANSPORT SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Principles for
reconstruction
- Restoration of connectivity - complementarities with early recovery- Timely completion of rehabilitation and reconstruction works- Strategic planning - flood risks and transport infrastructure vulnerability
Strategy for
reconstruction
- Field verification, needs assessment and condition surveys prior to commencement- Early mobilization of existing capacities in road construction industry- Facilitate import of materials and machinery - Explore technological options in road construction - Synergy in flood protection and design of national, provincial and strategic communication links
TRANSPORT SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS
* Includes direct damages of $735 million which are calculated on the basis of depreciated replacement cost of damaged infrastructure
Province Damages
USD millions
Reconstruction Cost
USD millions
ROADS
AJK 35 104
Baluchistan 38 72
FATA 23 64
Gilgit Baltistan 15 56
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 338 690
Punjab 179 295
Sindh 605 791
RAILWAYS 60 239
TELECOMMUNICATION 35 44
AVIATION 0.7 0.9
Total 1,328* 2,356
WATSAN SECTOR OVERVIEW OF DAMAGE
ProvinceWater Supply
No. of Schemes
SanitationNo. of Schemes
TotalNo. of Schemes
AJK 81 256 337a
Balochistan 146 - 146
FATA 168 - 168
Gilgit Baltistan 56 - 56
Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa 2,812 1,111 3,923
Punjab 125 1,068b 1,193
Sindhc 611 407 1,018
Total 3,999 2,842 6,841
Note: Refers to fully and partially damaged schemes; most schemes suffered partial damage except for those in mountainous areas.a Includes community latrines.b Includes 798 damaged culverts.c Includes 438 village development association schemes in 17 Sindh districts that may be damaged; damage data pending.
WATSAN SECTOR POLICY OPTIONS
Repair approach with minimal technical upgrading•System cleaning, de-clogging and disinfection•Physical upgrades for disaster mitigation•Priority value additions for materials (plastic pipe, flow
meters, voltage stabilizers, power connections
Option 1
Option 2
Build back better for more efficiency and impact --preferred approach:
•System cleaning and physical upgrades under Option 1•Essential technical and non-technical software including
disaster planning and training; systems review; capital works and service delivery plans; energy audits; hygiene and sanitation awareness; and analysis of service delivery options
WATSAN SECTOR DAMAGE AND
RECONSTRUCTION COSTS
Province Damage
USD millions
Needs: Option 1
USD millions
Needs: Option 2
USD millions
AJK 3.2 5.7 6.5
Balochistan 5.8 4.7 6.1
FATA 0.7 1 1.3
Gilgit Baltistan 0.6 1 1.2
Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa19.8 17 20.6
Punjab 21.6 10.1 15.2
Sindh 57.7 34.5 43.0
Sector Total 109.5 74 93.9