Page 1 – HAZARDS IN CANADA By Jacinthe LACROIX Meteorological Service of Canada.

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HAZARDS IN CANADABy Jacinthe LACROIXMeteorological Service of Canada

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A few facts on Canada• Canada: a big country

(close to 10 millions Km2) with a population of 34,5 millions (3.5 per Km2).

• 76.5% of Canadians live in cities and towns

• 31% live in the largest cities of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver

• 10 provinces and 3 territories

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Some Background on Risk Assessment and Emergency Management in Canada

• EM is a shared responsability between all levels of government.

• Within Canada's constitutional framework, the provincial and territorial governments and local authorities provide the first response to the vast majority of emergencies.

• However, at the federal level, areas of responsibility of federal institutions are established according to their respective mandates, which form the basis for the attribution of responsibilities with respect to specific hazards. These responsibilities can include monitoring, detecting and data processing activities of hazards.

• Emergency management adopts an all-hazards approach in every jurisdiction in Canada by addressing vulnerabilities exposed by both natural and human-induced hazards and disasters.

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Linkages: Government of Canada EM Response structure

Prime Minister Premier

Provincial Ministers

Cabinet Operations Committee(Adjusted as required by incident)

DM National Security Committee

ADM Emergency Management Committee

Government Operations Centre(GOC)

Provincial DMs

Provincial ADMs

Federal Operational Coordination Group

Provincial EOC

Federal Department

Regional Federal Offices/Resources

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Forests, and wildland fire management are primarily provincial/territorial jurisdiction

Provinces, use the Canadian Forest Service developed tools (e.g. fire bans, evacuations, predicting of paths of smoke plumes)

identify priority areas for fire suppression resources

less damage to property, timber; safer communities

Facilitation of inter-provincial and international collaboration: sharing of resources (e.g. Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre);

A coordination role in research, compiling and analyzing data, fire prediction modelling knowledge and technology for wildland fire

management provided to provinces and territories

Weather StationsFederal GovernmentProvincial management agenciesUSA National Weather Service

Federal roles in Hazard management: the example of wildland fire management

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The Canadian Disaster Database

• The Canadian Disaster Database (CDD) contains detailed disaster information on more than 1000 natural, technological and conflict events (excluding war) that have happened since 1900 at home or abroad and that have directly affected Canadians.

• Definition of disaster meets one or more of the following criteria: 10 or more people killed 100 or more people affected/injured/infected/evacuated or homeless an appeal for national/international assistance historical significance significant damage/interruption of normal processes such that the

community affected cannot recover on its own

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Natural Hazards Map of Canada

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EC: Hazards Website “revival”

1. National Hazard Website– Definition, Background & Important information– Historical Maps– Excel Data Tables– Historical Events– Historical Trends– Climate Change Information

2. Regional Websites (Nodes)– Historical Information on Regional Atmospheric Hazards – Maps, graphics, supplementary hazards datasets are featured,

with trends and events information available on some of the sites.

– Unique products produced by the regional team

Joan Klaassen EC

Clarification on Climate Change. Climate Change....more than just CCCSN. See for example, drought... graphics from peer-reviewed publications. Also for Hazards word climate change scenario information is not available, includes writeup with citations from scientific publications. Also some backgrounder on impacts and adaptation (although for details, for the references are cited). n

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TOP Hazards in Canada: floods

• Together, Environment Canada (EC), provinces and territories, provide crucial information to help forewarn Canadians of potential flooding dangers.

• http://www.ec.gc.ca/flood watch

Floods are the most damaging hazards

in Canada

http://www.ec.gc.ca/rhc-wsc/default.asp?Lang=En&xml=7F14B293-AA5F-4986-A781-28D505E789B9

http://www.ec.gc.ca/rhc-wsc/default.asp?Lang=En&xml=7F14B293-AA5F-4986-A781-28D505E789B9

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TOP Hazards in Canada: droughts

• The most costly hazard is droughts (mostly Prairies provinces)

• Often associated with increased soil erosion (blowing winds) and wildfires

• A drought watch is assumed by Agriculture and Agri-food Canada

• http://www.agr.gc.ca/AAFC-AAC/drought watch

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TOP Hazards in Canada: Coasts at risk

• Hurricane ( mostly Eastern Canada)• EC-Canadian Hurricane Center issues

forecasts, warnings and products

http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes

• Storm surge: Atlantic and Pacific coasts, large lakes.

• Warnings are issued by the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) http://weather.gc.ca/canada_e.html

• Tsunamis (Pacific coast) –associated with earthquakes

• Natural Resources Canada follows these conditions – Tsunami warning system

• http://www.earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/info-gen/tsunami-eng.php

• Tsunami warning system for Pacific: http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/

All earthquakes of the last 30 days

http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/Default.asp?lang=En&n=DA74FE64-1

http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/Default.asp?lang=En&n=DA74FE64-1

http://weather.gc.ca/canada_e.html

http://www.earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/info-gen/tsunami-eng.php



http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/



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TOP Hazards in Canada:Severe thunderstorms• Large hail, wind gusts, heavy

downpour, tornadoes, lightning• Watches and warnings are

issued by the Meteorological Service of Canada http://weather.gc.ca/canada_e.html


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TOP Hazards in Canada: winter storms

Types of winter storms and their common locations

• Heavy snow, blizzard, freezing rain, extreme wind chill

• Watches and warnings are issued by the Meteorological Service of Canada http://weather.gc.ca/canada_e.html


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EC-MSC Public Alerting ProgramHazard criteria

• Hazard types included:– Rainfall– Severe thunderstorm– Tornado– Wind– Dust storm– Blizzard– Winter storm– Snowfall– Snow squall– Blowing snow– Freezing rain, freezing drizzle– Flash freeze

• Hazard types under development: frost, high heat and humidity heat wave,

humidex, wind chill

• Hazard types belonging to separate programs: tropical storm, hurricane, tsunami

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Water & Climate Predictions & Projections

Multi-Scale Alerting Systems

past present future

Observations

Short-term forecasts

Radar

Dynamic alert thresholds

Two way risk communications (early notifications, short term alerts)

Knowledge on weather related impacts

Climatology of extremes

Critical warning thresholds according to weather parameters

4 to 15 day forecasts

Monthly and Seasonal forecasts

Two way risk communications (long term trends)

Climate projections

Knowledge on future extremes

Precipitation

Temperature

Water levels

Ice conditions

Soil water logging

Using Water & Climate Information in the context of early notification at different timescales

InterventionImpact database

Lessons learned

Revising of civil safety diagram

Revising of emergency plans

Building code

Land use

Etc.

Planning & preparation

Risk forecast

Management of dams

Policy on watering

Triggering of emergency plan

Etc.

Applications

Nowcasting / short range forecasting

HistoricalRecurrence

Antecedent conditions

Medium & long range

forecasts

Climate scenarios

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Risk assessment to adress EM requirements…

Relative Risk of Hazard Addressed by EM Activity (Risk to Canada)(Likelihood of Occurrence x Consequences of Occurrence)

EMPlan

New Area

Weak18-24

Fair12-18

Good6-12

Very Good

0-6

2 3 4 5 10 15 20 25

16

1B

3

5

7

9

12

1517 18

19

22

25

35 36

37

27

28

4

33

1A

6

2629

11

10

1C24 23

5

Direct Hazard

Consequential HazardLead

UniqueSupport

OtherSupport

CFS CMSS/PAPM/SPI

ES ESS ETPS MMS

1A earthquake1B volcanism1C tsunami3 landslide4 fire mapping5 space weather6 radiological incident7 nuclear explosion9 remote sensing

10 mapping11 fire behaviour12 fire hazard

15 invasive alien species (IAS)16 communications17 business continuity18 Emergency Ops Centre19 security

22 international oil/gas supply

23 domestic oil/gas supply24 domestic electricity supply

25 radiological incident

26 offshore: supply implications

27 FERP ESF#428 nuclear isotopes

29 offshore: other implications33 M&M commodity supply

35 mine structure36 mine vicinity37 mines & the environment

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Water, Climate and Ice Monitoring

Climate Network

EC operates surface weather and climate observation networks which provide the foundation for Canada’s high-quality, long-term climate record.

EC is working to ensure the sustained integrity and modernization of these critical networks.

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Hydrometric Network

EC’s Water Survey of Canada is responsible for the collection, interpretation, and dissemination of standardized water data and information in Canada.

It partners with provinces, territories and other agencies to operate over 2500 active hydrometric gauges across the country.

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Ice Monitoring & Observations

• EC’s Canadian Ice Service provides a variety of monitoring and observation-based products of sea and lake ice conditions in Canadian navigable waters including:

– Daily and Weekly ice charts– Image analysis charts– RADARSAT mosaic and MODIS composite images

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• Environment Canada (EC) produces a variety of climate monitoring products, some of which originate from S&T Branch and some from the MSC.

• Depending on the source (STB or MSC) and intended use,

climate monitoring products are derived from either quality controlled data from the MSC’s National Archives System (i.e. climate station data) or STB’s Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data.

• Climate monitoring products are designed, calculated, and

targeted to different audiences and purposes. For this reason, both data streams are kept current.

Monitoring Products

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• Data Display • Bulk Access Data• Climate Normals & Averages

• 1961 to 1990 and 1971 to 2000• 1400 stations available online• The new 1981-2010 normals will be available by

the December 2012• Climate Summaries

• Monthly summary of averages and extremes• Available the 5th of every month

• Historical Radar• 31 Radar sites across Canada• Animated images up to a maximum time span of

12 hours can be displayed• Rain and snow PRECIP images

• Customized datasets

A broad range of products & services

Canada’s National Climate Archive• Website launched July 31st, 2003: http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca• Second most popular Environment Canada website (after WeatherOffice)

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/

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Hydrometric Information

• Water Survey of Canada information is searchable at:http://www.wsc.ec.gc.ca/applications/H2O/index-eng.cfm

• Various hydrometric data and information is available:– eg. streamflow, water levels, sedimentation, and site information

http://www.wsc.ec.gc.ca/applications/H2O/index-eng.cfm

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Analyses and Derived Products

Mapping of accumulated precipitation over time

-50 -30 -10 10 30 50 % / 60 yrs

Snow1950-2009

Mapping of trends in annual rain and snowfall.

744 hour totals

Examples

Mekis and Vincent, 2011

Eg. Precipitation Analyses

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Engineering Services

• Intensity-Duration-Frequency Files (IDF) Curves

• 549 locations across Canada• 1 to 30 day available online

• Support for infrastructure codes and standards

• Wind, snow loads, temperatures, precipitation, wind pressures, etc.

• Water Budget Model • Climate-based model accounting for

water gains and losses at a given location

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Engineering Services (2)

• TextEg. Tailored Products for Infrastructure Codes & Standards:• Updates of Canadian standards in 2010:

• 9 of 15 climatic elements for 680 locations in the National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) updated and expanded (first for wind since 1958)

• New NBCC information for tornado prone areas and frost penetration• Update of ice/wind loads for the Canadian Standards Assoc. transmission line standard (1st since 1998 ice storm)

• Two new Canadian Standards Association Guides:• Adaptation to Climate Change for Infrastructure • Permafrost and Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) information for storm and waste water management

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Psychosocial impacts from

droughts

Permafrost melt

damaging infrastructur

es

Health impacts from more severe storms

Water-borne diseases from

floods

Changes in drinking water quality and quantity

Food security - changing animal

distributions

Respiratory illnesses from forest fires

Dangerous travelling conditions

Expansion of Lyme Disease vector

Heat–related

illnesses and deaths

Looking at risks from a climate change perspective: the example of Health

Questions?

Page 1 – HAZARDS IN CANADA By Jacinthe LACROIX Meteorological Service of Canada.

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