Page 1 Determinants Of Labour Market Conditions for Canadian Teachers Council of Ministers of...

Determinants Of Labour Market Conditions for Canadian Teachers

Council of Ministers of Education, Canada (CMEC)

Pan-Canadian Education Research Agenda (PCERA)

Quebec, City

May 22-23, 2001

2

Outline of Presentation

• The Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS): Description, Mandate and Activities

• A Profile of the Teaching Occupations

• Key Economic Drivers and Their Implications for Labour Market Conditions of the Teaching Profession

• Summary of Current and Future Labour Market Issues

3

What is the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)?

• Formed in 1982 following the key recommendation of the Dodge Task Force on Labour Market Development.

• Federal/Provincial/Territorial Partnership working together to produce Labour Market Information.

• Family of national and provincial models, monitoring and

research activities.

4

COPS Mandate

• Produce and disseminate timely, reliable, consistent and relevant current and forward-looking labour market information and research.

• Goal is to improve the transparency of the labour market (transitions) and thus improve the decision making process.

– Transitions from school to work

– Transitions from non-employed to employed

– Transitions from job (career) to job (career)

5

COPS Products and Activities

• Monitoring: – Provincial Monthly Labour Market Brief

– Quarterly Labour Market Review

• Forecasting: – Industry/Occupational Pressures

• Research and Analysis: – Impact of Ageing

– Determinants of Retirement

– Determinants to Education

– Economic Returns to Education

– Job Quality

– Occupational Monographs

– Impact of Technology on the Labour Market

– Model Development

6

COPS Products and Activities(continued)

• Labour Market Information: – Job Futures

– Youth Outlook

• Partnerships and Consultations: – F/P/T COPS Consultation Conferences

– Regional COPS Workshops

– F/P/T FLMM Participation

7

2000 Teacher ProfileAll All University College Elem/Sec.

Occupations Teachers Teachers Teachers Teachers

Employment 14909.7 559.0 83.7 83.4 391.9

% Female 46 63.1 41.3 51.4 70.1

% Part-time 18.1 20.9 27 22 19.4

% Self-employed 16.2 1.4 0.6 6.4 0.1

% Age 15-24 15.4 5.2 8.7 4.6 4.7

% Age 25-54 74.2 84.3 68.1 85 87.1

% Age 55+ 10.4 10.5 23.2 10.4 8.2

Unemployment Rate 6.8 2.9 4.4 3.6 2.5

Hourly Earnings $16.64 $24.32 $29.24 $22.46 $23.66

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

8

Teaching Employment Levels

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

All Tchrs. Univ. Tchrs. Coll. Tchrs. El/Sec. Tchrs.

19902000

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2000

Thousands

9

Provincial Teacher Concentrations

0

5

10

15

20

25

Can

Nfld PE

I

NS

NB

Qu

e

On

t

Man

Sas

k

Alta BC

Pop 5-29/Tchr.

Source: 1996 Census

%

10

The Teaching Profession Has a Relatively High Proportion of Women

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

All Occs. AllTchrs.

Univ.Tchrs.

Coll.Tchrs.

El/Sec.Tchrs.

19902000


%

11

Women in Teaching by Province

5455565758596061626364

Can Nfld PEI NS NB Que Ont Man Sask Alta BCSource: 1996 Census of Canada

%

12

An Above Average Proportion of University Teachers Work Part-Time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

All Occs. AllTchrs.

Univ.Tchrs.

Coll.Tchrs.

El/Sec.Tchrs.

19902000


%

13

Part-Time Teaching Employment by Province

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Can Nfld PEI NS NB Que Ont Man Sak Alta BC

Source: 1996 Census of Canada

%

14

On Average, Teachers are Older...

0

10

2030

40

50

60

70

8090

AllOccs.

AllTchrs.

UnivTchrs.

Coll.Tchrs.

El/Sec.Tchrs.

Age 15-24Age 25-54Age 55+


42

4041.838.2

Average Age%

15

…and Retire Earlier

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

All Occs.Educ. Etc.


16

Provincial Teaching Employment by Age

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14C

an

Atl

anti

c

Que

Ont

Pra BC

Age 15-24Age 55+


%

17

Key Drivers of Labour Market Conditions for Teaching Occupations

• Demand

– slower population growth - downward pressures on elementary secondary and upward pressure on post-secondary.

– continued movement towards a knowledge based economy (KBE), upward pressures on post-secondary.

– ageing workforce, upward pressures mainly at post-secondary level.

– Specific provincial/field of study pressures (eg. Ontario’s double cohort or shortage of computer science professors).

18

Key Drivers of Labour Market Conditions for Teaching Occupations

(Continued)

• Supply– school leavers

– immigration

• Other Issues

– difficulty in attracting and retaining workers

– working conditions

– technology (eg. e-learning)

19

As a result of lower fertility rate population growth will slow

Average Annual Rate of Growth

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

319

40-4

4

1950

-54

1960

-64

1970

-74

1980

-84

1990

-94

2000

-04

2010

-14

2020

-24

2030

-34

Source: Statistics Canada, HRDC ARB/PMEDS Projection

%

20

Relative Decline of Youth and Increase of Those Age 65+

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Age 0-4 Age 5-13 Age 14-18 Age 19-29 Age 30-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+

Y1965Y2000Y2035

Source: Statistics Canada, HRDC, ARB/PMEDS Projection

%

21

150

200

250

300

350

400

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8Elementary and Secondary Teachers (left axis)

Elementary and Secondary Students (right axis)

Th

ousa

nds M

illions

Demographic Trends Will Exert Downward Pressure on the Employment of Elementary/Secondary Teachers

Historical and projected number of elementary / secondary teachers and students

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Educational Administrative data, COPS reference 2000 scenario

Number of teachers that would be required to maintain the students/ teachers ration at its 1984-2000 average

22

Movement Towards Knowledge Occupations Will Continue

(Average Annual Growth Rates)

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5D

ata

Goo

ds

Kno

wle

dge

Man

agem

ent

Serv

ices

Tot

al

1988-2000

2001-2005

Source: COPS, 2001

%

23

The population is becoming more educated

30

35

40

45

50

55

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Share of working-age population with a post-secondary diploma

Historical Projected

%

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey and Projections by Applied Research Branch

24

50

60

70

80

90

100

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

350

400

450

500

550

600

College and Trade Students (right axis)

College and Trade Teachers (left axis)

Th

ousa

nds T

hou

sandsThe number of trade and college teachers is projected to continue to increase at a similar pace to that observed in recent years.

Historical and projected number of college / trade teachers and students



25

35

40

45

50

55

60

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

350

400

450

500

550

600

University Students (right axis)

University Teachers(left axis)

Th

ousa

nds T

hou

sandsThe number of university teachers is projected to increase after declining sharply in the late 1990s.

Historical and projected number of university teachers and students



26

Average Annual New Job Creation

-2000-1000

010002000300040005000600070008000

All Tchrs Univ Coll Elem/Sec

1994-992000-05

Source: COPS National Model, Update 2000

27

Average Annual Retirements

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

All Tchrs. Univ. Coll. Elem/Sec.

1994-992000-05


28

Average Annual Supply of School Leavers to the Profession

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000


1994-992000-05


29

Average Annual Supply of Recent Immigrants to the Profession

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000


1994-992000-05


30

Specific Issues

• In Ontario, in September 2003, there will be a double set of high school graduates seeking seats in Ontario’s post-secondary institutions. This will put upward pressure on the demand for post-secondary teachers.

• Further, the May 2001 Ontario budget has proposed establishing a new university which will also put upward pressure on the demand for post-secondary teachers.

• Labour market conditions for specific field of study post-secondary teachers varies by discipline. For example, competition from the private sector is drawing current and potential teachers in the sciences, business and computer science from the education system.

31

Summary of Current and Future Pressures

• Demographic

– population age 5 to 18 is expected to grow marginally over the projection period which will dampen demand for elementary secondary school teachers. Alternatively, population age 19 to 29 is expected to grow which should stimulate the demand for post-secondary school teachers.

• Retirements

– The education sector is older than most other occupations which coupled, with a lower retirement age, results in a

large exodus from the profession.

32

Summary of Current and Future Pressures (continued)

• Movement towards a KBE

– strongest employment growth over the projection period is anticipated in occupations generally requiring higher levels of education. This movement is expected to further increase the demand for post-secondary school teachers.

• Limits to Supply Growth

– difficulty in attracting and retaining teachers

– competition from private sector

33

Summary of Current and Future Pressures (continued)

• Other Factors Influencing Labour Market Conditions

– working conditions are not seen as overly attractive although benefits and hours worked are felt to be a bonus

– technology

– distance learning

– emigration as a result of the global market place

– increased immigration increases the demand for ESL teachers

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