PACS 2500 Introduction to Peace and Conflict Studies Guy Burgess.

PACS 2500

Introduction toPeace and Conflict Studies

Guy Burgess

University Costs

http://m.dailycamera.com/camera/db_/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=IIQBqHOX&full=true#display

The Pentagon Cut Debate

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/02/opponents-of-pentagon-budget-cuts-just-played-the-entire-media/284058/

Cutting the Pentagon to Pre-WWII

Defense Budgets

Afghanistan & Backlash Effect

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interview-karzai-says-12-year-afghanistan-war-has-left-him-angry-at-us-government/2014/03/02/b831671c-a21a-11e3-b865-38b254d92063_story.html

Ukraine

Putin’s Vision

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/opinion/brooks-putin-cant-stop.html?hp&rref=opinion&_r=0

Reagan Gorbachev

Soviet Union

NATO Today

Cold War Frame

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/opinion/putins-crimean-crime.html?_r=0

G-8 Minus One

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/03/03/the-group-of-8-without-russia?hp&rref=opinion

US Respect for Soverignty?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/eugene-robinson-with-ukraine-crisis-the-us-has-a-credibility-problem/2014/03/03/f8f6a58a-a311-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html?hpid=z1

US Politics & the Ukraine

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-obama-the-feckless-tyrant/2014/03/03/73470bdc-a320-11e3-84d4-e59b1709222c_story.html

Overlay Problems: Communication, Facts

Escalation Relationships CommunicationFactsCollaboration

Core

Trustworthy Facts

To be useful factual information must be: Worthy of trust Trusted Understood Sensibly acted upon

How do you achieve this? The economy? Security? Climate change?

Risk vs. Uncertainty

Risk Known possible outcomes

Known costs associated with those outcomes Known probability of those outcomes Insurance possible

Uncertainty Known and unknown possible outcomes

Known and unknown costs associated with those outcomes

Known and unknown probability of those outcomes Insurance not possible Hunch gambling possible

Avoiding the Ostrich Trap

Predicting the Future? .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 = .4

Charles Linbloom "The next change" Requires continual

monitoring and reassessment

Can’t Be Too Safe Rachet

Also Risky Shift

Hierarchy of Wastebaskets

FactCheck.org

Al Frakin

True,False,orWeaselGame

If the Facts Aren’t on Your Side,Attack the Wonks / Fact Checkers

“We’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact-checkers”

How do you encourage and support quality fact checking?

Or, get your own fact checker

Overlay Problems: Collaboration

Escalation Relationships Communication

Collaboration

Core

Getting to Yes – Fisher and Ury

Interests / Positions

Positions = initial demands what you want “Let me have the orange” “Drill baby drill”

Interests = the real reasons behind your positions (may be unconscious) Eat the fruit, use the skin for a geometry project Continue to be able to do the things that need

energy, limit pollution, preserve vitality of energy companies

Interest-based framing lets you identify and pursue options for mutual gain Split orange between skin and fruit Comprehensive energy plan with conservation,

alternative/conventional energy

The Position Trap

Interests? / Positions?

Leaders? Grassroots citizens?

Positional Political Framing

Excuses vs. Reasons (Real Interests) The Federal Deficit Conflict

Interest-based Strategy

Park Service / Climber Negotiation

Interest-based (or Integrative) Bargaining

Separate people from the problem

Focus on interests Generate options Use objective criteria

Based on fairness principles

Coalition Building Applications

Works within ZOPA

Party AWinning

Outcomes

Party BWinning

Outcomes

ZOPA

Zone of Possible Agreement

Initial Situation

Zero-Sum / Draw-Draw

Positive-Sum / Win-Win

Negative-Sum / Lose-Lose (equally)

Zero-Sum / Win-Lose

Negative-Sum / Win-Lose

Positive-Sum / Win-Lose

Positive-Sum Game (e.g. hybrid car wind energy storage)

Win-Win Win-Lose

Party Year 1 Bdgt Year 2 Bdgt Year 2 Bdgt

A 20 25 15

B 10 15 10

C 20 25 20

D 50 55 75

Total 100 120 120

Zero-Sum Game (e.g. steady state budget)

Draw-Draw Win-Lose


A 20 20 15

B 10 10 10

C 20 20 15

D 50 50 60

Total 100 100 100

Negative-Sum Game (e.g. Budget Cuts)

Lose-Lose Win-Lose


A 20 15 10

B 10 5 5

C 20 15 10

D 50 45 55

Total 100 80 100

Hard, Soft, Principled Negotiation I

Soft Hard Principled

Participants are friends Participants are adversaries

Participants are problem-solvers

The goal is agreement The goal is victory The goal is a wise outcome reached

efficiently and amicably

Make concessions to cultivate the relationship

Demand concessions as a condition of the

relationship

Separate the people from the problem

Be soft on the people and the problem

Be hard on the people and the problem

Be soft on the people, hard on the problem

ProblemPositional Bargaining:

which Game Should You Play?

SolutionChange the Game-

Negotiate on the Merits

Hard, Soft, Principled Negotiation II

Soft Hard PrincipledTrust others Distrust others Proceed independent

of others

Change your position easily

Dig into your position Focus on interests, not positions

Make offers Make threats Explore interests

Disclose your bottom line

Mislead as your bottom line

Avoid having a bottom line

Accept one-sided losses to reach

agreement

Demand one-sided gains as the price of

agreement

Invest options for mutual gain

Search for the single answer: the one they

will accept

Search for the single answer: the one you

will accept

Develop multiple options to choose from;

decide later

Insist on agreement Insist on your position Insist on using objective criteria

Hard, Soft, Principled Negotiation III

Soft Hard Principled

Try to avoid a contest of will

Try to win a contest of will

Try to reach a result based on standards of

independent will

Yield to pressure Apply pressure Reason and be open to reasons; yield to

principle, not pressure

Source: Getting to Yes

Distributive vs. Integrative Bargaining

Trade-Offs vs. Mutual Gain

Bargaining Chips

BATNA Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement

On what basis do you decide whether or not to accept a

negotiated agreement?

BATNA Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement

Conclusion of a Negotiation

Process

Are there any power contest

alternatives that are likely to give

me a better deal?

Accept Agreement

Administrative appeal

Legal challenge

Political lobbying

Electoral campaigns

Public persuasion

Economic action

Civil disobedience

Military action

Etc,

BATNA Limit / Ripeness


Process



me a better deal?


Process



me a better deal?

Accept Agreement

Accept Agreement

Administrative appeal

Legal challenge

Political lobbying

Electoral campaigns

Public persuasion

Economic action

Civil disobedience

Military action

Etc,



Process



me a better deal?

WIN Ballot Initiative WIN


Process



me a better deal?

Power Contest Shortcut

Bitter End Path

Accept Agreement

Accept Agreement



Process



me a better deal?

WIN Ballot Initiative LOSE


Process



me a better deal?

Power Contest Shortcut

Bitter End Path

Accept Agreement

Accept Agreement

Lack of Negotiation Channels

The problem:

The parties have no mechanism for exploring their respective interests and opportunities for mutually beneficial agreement Options for making things better:

Convening, facilitation, and, perhaps, mediation servicesInstitutionalized, standby negotiation forums

The Double Cross Problem

The problem:

Unwillingness to accept mutually beneficial agreements because of the fear of being “double-crossed”

The “prisoner’s dilemma”Options for making things better:

Guarantees, verification, action-forcing mechanisms

“Trust, but verify”

Illusion of “Winner-Take-All” Victory

The problem:

People who see governance as a “winner-take-all” game in which the goal is to totally defeat (rather than reach an accommodation with) an adversary.Options for making things better:

Realistic assessment of transaction costs and risks of defeatMoral challenge to “winner-take-all” mindset

The #1 “Getting to Yes” Critique

Interest-based bargainers are vulnerable to attack and exploitation by hard bargainers Especially, those motivated by ruthless,

Machiavellian ethics.

Getting Past No: Strategies for Negotiating with Difficult People

Don’t React (Don’t Contribute to Escalation)

Disarm Your Opponent (Start to De-escalate the Conflict)

Change the Game (To Interests From Positions)

Make It Easy to Say Yes (Let Opponents “Save Face” and Appear to Win Something Important)

Make It Hard to Say No (Force Opponents to Give Up something to Say No)

Source: William Ury, Getting Past No: Strategies for Negotiating With Difficult People, Bantam Books, New York, 1991.

3rd Party Intervention / Rescue

3rd Party / Intermediary Processes

Adjudication Special Case: Mock Trials

Arbitration Special Case: Final Offer Arbitration

Med-Arb (Mediation/Arbitration) Mediation

Special Case: Transformative Mediation

Facilitation Convening Hybrid Processes

Neutrality?

Consensus Building Institute

Ground Rules

Treat others the way you would like to be treated Accept that you are talking about important issues

that everyone really cares about Respect others and expect to be respected Listen and expect to be listened to Agree where you can but disagree where you must Acknowledge that participants will still be aggressive

advocates following the meeting Goal:

• Identify areas in which we can work together• Focus our disagreements on the core issues

Consensus Building I

Assumption: the parties really want to resolve the dispute

Usually business-as-usual is not acceptable

Examples• Metropolitan Denver water supply• Social Security• Denver-area transit• Municipal budget downsizing• Security and anti-terrorism• Boulder Open Space management

Consensus Building II

Step #1: Conflict assessment / development of a consensus building plan Need lead individual / organization to do the work Identify stakeholders

• Active and latent stakeholders • Especially those with veto power• Constituency groups and potential representatives

Determine stakeholder interests (with visits / documents)

• Formal (often legal) responsibilities • Formal (often legal) constraints • Powers (legal, political, economic, public opinion)

Consensus Building III

Explain consensus building opportunities and options

Discuss their willingness to participate “in good faith” Concerns that must be overcome Opportunities that they would like to see developed

Identify potential funding sources Prepare a consensus building proposal

Must work within existing responsibility and power relationships

Consensus Building IV

Step #2: Sell the proposal Obtain commitments to participate from key

stakeholders Obtain skilled facilitation/mediation services

• May be different from person doing assessment Obtain adequate funding

Consensus Building V

Step #3: Implement the consensus building process Convene stakeholder/participants Establish ground rules Agree on meeting schedule Establish routine negotiators/constituent

loop Build interpersonal relationships among

negotiators Identify problems to be addressed

• Field trips, narratives

Consensus Building VI

Step #3 (continued) Identify interests to be protected/advanced Identify options for mutual gain

• Or minimal loss (in negative-sum) conflicts Identify action forcing mechanisms

Step #4: Implement the agreement Sequencing / enforcement Periodic reassessments

Other Ideas

Self-Interest vs. Social Interests Higman’s “WHY?” questions NIMBY’s NOPE’s BANANA’s Within Coalition vs. Between Coalition Fairness Principles

Common Ground Meeting

What points of agreement exist? What points of disagreement exist?

Fact-based disagreements Value-based disagreements

What possible compromises can you imagine for simultaneously advancing the interests of all parties?

In cases where we feel we must “agree to disagree” how can we handle those disagreements most constructively?

Overlay Problems: Relationships


Collaboration

Core

Possible Applications: Syria

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/battle-for-syria/

Regime 0-7:16

Battle

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/battle-for-syria/

Other Possible Applications

The Meeting Place

Justice Punish those that committed “unrightable”,

“unspeakable” wrongs

Truth Acknowledge the guilt, build a common

history

Peace Stop the fighting and killing (even if it

means letting people “get away with it”)

Mercy Stop the hate with forgiveness

Lederach Trade-Offs

Visioning

Justice Punish those that committed “unrightable”,

“unspeakable” wrongs

Truth Acknowledge the guilt, build a common

history

Peace Stop the fighting and killing (even if it means

letting people “get away with it”)

Mercy Stop the hate with forgiveness

Future Vision Imagining a positive future vision and a fair

relationship

Elise Boulding

Charter for Compassion

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJMm4RAwVLo

Compassion

That which is hurtful to you do not do to others

Compassion: A Cross-Cultural Universal?

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/03132009/watch.html

25 minutes

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/03132009/watch.html

Charter of Compassion

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wktlwCPDd94

Charter for Compassion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrtxUX65QA4

Compassion

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCG4qryy1Dghim

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCG4qryy1Dg

Monkey and the Fish II

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/02/how-anti-poverty-programs-marginalize-fathers/283984/

Compassion Gap

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/opinion/sunday/kristof-the-compassion-gap.html

Compassion

That which is hurtful to you…

Disrespect Betrayal

Things that cause you to be hurtful to others…

Lack of empathy Anger Out group stereotypes Dehumanization

Challenges of compassion

Psychopaths (incorrigibles) Constructive confrontation

Abortion cross demonstration

Discussion Questions

What does other groups do that hurt your group?

What does your group do that hurts others in the same way?

What are your community’s value regarding compassion?

Overlay Problems: Collaboration


Collaboration

Core

1st / 3rd World Problems

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUoKBeDEoDY

Africa for Norway

http://www.africafornorway.no/

http://www.africafornorway.no/why

PACS 2500 Introduction to Peace and Conflict Studies Guy Burgess.

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