Pacific Northwest & Alaska Risk Management Education Regional Conference
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Transcript of Pacific Northwest & Alaska Risk Management Education Regional Conference
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Pacific Northwest & Alaska Pacific Northwest & Alaska Risk Management Risk Management Education Regional Education Regional
ConferenceConference
March 24-25 Spokane, WashingtonMarch 24-25 Spokane, Washington
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Managing Risk Through Diversification & Technology
Paul PattersonAgricultural EconomistUniversity of Idaho CES
Managing Risk Through Diversification & Technology
Paul PattersonAgricultural EconomistUniversity of Idaho CES
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Risk:Risk:
The probability of an adverse effectThe probability of an adverse effect
The possibility that an outcome or The possibility that an outcome or event will not meet expectationsevent will not meet expectations
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Step One:Step One: Know your financial situationKnow your financial situation
Analyze and understand recent Analyze and understand recent trends in your financial situationtrends in your financial situation
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Step Two:Step Two: Awareness of Factors Affecting Awareness of Factors Affecting
Supply & DemandSupply & Demand
- Current Situation- Current Situation- Recent Changes- Recent Changes- Long Term Trends- Long Term Trends
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Environmental AwarenessEnvironmental Awareness 1996 FAIR Act1996 FAIR Act
- Eliminates Supply Management- Eliminates Supply Management(Acreage Reduction Program)(Acreage Reduction Program)
- Eliminates Income Stabilization- Eliminates Income Stabilization(Deficiency Payments)(Deficiency Payments)
- Phases Out Income Support- Phases Out Income Support(Market Transition Payments)(Market Transition Payments)
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Environmental AwarenessEnvironmental Awareness Global IssuesGlobal Issues
- Tightening World Grain Stocks- Tightening World Grain Stocks- Reduced Government Involvement- Reduced Government Involvement- Trade Agreements / Reduction in - Trade Agreements / Reduction in
Trade BarriersTrade Barriers
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Environmental AwarenessEnvironmental Awareness Factors Affecting Price VolatilityFactors Affecting Price Volatility
- No constraints on acreage - No constraints on acreage adjustmentsadjustments
- Reduced government stocks- Reduced government stocks- Immediate response to market - Immediate response to market
signalssignals
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Environmental AwarenessEnvironmental Awareness TrendsTrends
- Increasing farm size- Increasing farm size- Increased specialization - Increased specialization - Attribute-differentiated products- Attribute-differentiated products- Fashion or niche markets- Fashion or niche markets- Identity preserved products- Identity preserved products
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Environmental AwarenessEnvironmental Awareness Trends Trends
- Partnership with suppliers & - Partnership with suppliers & purchasers purchasers - Proprietary information - Proprietary information & technology & technology
- Industrialization of farms- Industrialization of farms- Concentration- Concentration- Reduced political influence- Reduced political influence
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Risk management strategies must fit your circumstances, the
current business environment, and must integrate production, marketing, financial, legal and
human risk.
Risk management strategies must fit your circumstances, the
current business environment, and must integrate production, marketing, financial, legal and
human risk.
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Diversification to Manage RiskDiversification to Manage Risk
Objective: Maximize net return while Objective: Maximize net return while reducing income variabilityreducing income variability
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Types of Diversification:Types of Diversification:
Additional EnterprisesAdditional Enterprises
Different Mix of EnterprisesDifferent Mix of Enterprises
Differentiated ProductDifferentiated Product
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Types of Diversification:Types of Diversification:
Specific Attribute ProductSpecific Attribute Product
Value-Added ProductValue-Added Product
Non-Farm Income & InvestmentsNon-Farm Income & Investments
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Diversification Issues:Diversification Issues:
Product Form &/or SpecificationsProduct Form &/or Specifications
Market Location & AvailabilityMarket Location & Availability
Yield VariabilityYield Variability
Price VariabilityPrice Variability
Price DiscoveryPrice Discovery
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Managing Risk: Diversification and TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification and Technology
Diversification Issues:Diversification Issues:
Size/Scale Restricts/RequirementsSize/Scale Restricts/Requirements
Product Volume ConstraintsProduct Volume Constraints
Special Management SkillsSpecial Management Skills
Production Practices/TechnologyProduction Practices/Technology
Credit AvailabilityCredit Availability
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Managing Risk: Diversification and TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification and Technology
Diversification Issues:Diversification Issues:
Counter to Need to Specialize as Counter to Need to Specialize as Technical Knowledge IncreasesTechnical Knowledge Increases
Comparative Advantage / DisadvantageComparative Advantage / Disadvantage
Competitive Advantage / DisadvantageCompetitive Advantage / Disadvantage
Net Return Variance and CovarianceNet Return Variance and Covariance
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Technology’s Role In Managing RiskTechnology’s Role In Managing Risk
Objective: Improve management Objective: Improve management and production efficiencyand production efficiency
Compare benefits to costsCompare benefits to costs
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Technology’s Role In Managing RiskTechnology’s Role In Managing Risk
Technology is more than high tech Technology is more than high tech and biotechand biotech
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Technology BenefitsTechnology Benefits Cost ReducingCost Reducing Yield EnhancingYield Enhancing Quality EnhancingQuality Enhancing Price EnhancingPrice Enhancing Provides Market AccessProvides Market Access Provides Management InformationProvides Management Information
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Technology NegativesTechnology Negatives Increased CostsIncreased Costs Increased RiskIncreased Risk Applicability Based On Size/ScaleApplicability Based On Size/ScaleConsumer Rejection/AcceptanceConsumer Rejection/AcceptanceEnvironmental RiskEnvironmental Risk
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Transition PlanningTransition Planning FeasibilityFeasibility Startup CostsStartup Costs Additional Credit NeedsAdditional Credit Needs Cash Flow RequirementsCash Flow Requirements Financial Risk ConsequencesFinancial Risk Consequences
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Transition Planning ToolsTransition Planning Tools Budgeting:Budgeting:
- enterprise, partial, whole-farm- enterprise, partial, whole-farm Accounting Software:Accounting Software:
- projected cash flow- projected cash flow FINPACK:FINPACK:
- comprehensive financial - comprehensive financial planning planning and analysis packageand analysis package
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Measuring RiskMeasuring Risk Variance In Net ReturnsVariance In Net Returns Relative Importance of Positive and Relative Importance of Positive and
Negative VarianceNegative Variance Historical DataHistorical Data
- Does history repeat itself?- Does history repeat itself?
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Managing Risk: Diversification & TechnologyManaging Risk: Diversification & Technology
Relationship of Risk and ProfitRelationship of Risk and Profit
High Risk = High Potential ProfitHigh Risk = High Potential Profit
Low Risk = Low Potential ProfitLow Risk = Low Potential Profit
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The objective of risk management is not to eliminate risk.
Risk management is taking the right risks to maximize profit
while reducing income variability and meeting financial obligations.
The objective of risk management is not to eliminate risk.
Risk management is taking the right risks to maximize profit
while reducing income variability and meeting financial obligations.