W.E.Baethgen 2012

Improving adaptation to climate change for sustainable development

in the agricultural sector of Uruguay:

The National Agricultural Information System

Walter E. BaethgenDirector, Climate Services Program

International Research Institute for Climate and SocietyThe Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York

W.E.Baethgen 2012

Adapt to What?Climate Change Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)

Complex models that simulate physical processes in the atmosphere, oceans and land

1. Great advances in science,but still lots to understand:Limitations of the Models

2. Key Input:GHG Emissions

Assumptions:(e.g., in 2080-2100)

Technologies? Energy Sources? Deforestation rates?Population?

Uncertainties(IPCC Scenarios)

W.E.Baethgen 2012

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO

2 p

pm

A1B

A1F

A2

B1

B2

CO2 atmospheric concentration for

different development options

Fuente: IPCC, 2001

Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios

In AR5: Radiative Forcing Values (similar assumptions)

W.E.Baethgen 2012

Uncertainty

Global TemperatureFor Diffrerent Socioeconomic Scenarios

Source: IPCC, 2007 At regional or local levels Uncertainty is much larger

W.E.Baethgen 2012

IPCC, 2007

Precipitation Projections for 2090-2099

For Rainfall uncertainties are much larger

Precipitation in DJF

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Giannini et al., 2007, IRI

At Regional level Uncertainties are larger(Individual Model Runs and Averages)

East Africa

This is for large “Windows”At Local Level Uncertainties are much larger

Decisions are made at Local (Regional) Level

W.E.Baethgen 2012

However: Published articles with Crop Yield as if Information was Perfect Projections for 2020, 2050, 2080

Uncertainty?

2020

2050

2080

• Conclusion: Climate Change Scenarios are Uncertain• IPCC’s objective was not to create scenarios for impact assessment

DANGER:This is easily understandableCan be “erroneously” believedCan Lead to “Maladaptation”

Percent change in Crop Yieldsfor one climate change scenario (one model)

W.E.Baethgen 2012

Climate Change Scenarios and Decision Makers:

Decision Makers (including Policy Makers): Pressure to act on immediate to short-term problems

Scientific Community: Climate Scenarios for 2080, 2100Great for Public Awareness, but CC is a problem of the FUTURE

CC scenarios: Uncertainty at regional / local level is huge

Result:

Adaptation to CC is often not in the policy agendas

Can it be incorporated into Planning, Development?

W.E.Baethgen 2012

A Different Approach for Adaptation Climate Change: Climate Risk Management

Work in Possible Ranges of “Near-term” Climate Change (i.e., 10-30 years):

Adapt with Flexibility (we do not have, and will not have “perfect information” on future climate)

Some of the most damaging impacts of Climate Change are expected to be due to increased Climate Variability (damaging/extreme events: droughts, floods).

Learning to cope with Current Climate Variability will lead to Less Vulnerable Societies Today that will be better prepared to Adapt to possible conditions of Future Climate

With this approach, actions are needed at a time scale that is relevant for Policy Makers

Climate Change is a problem of the PRESENT (happening already)as opposed to a problem of the FUTURE

W.E.Baethgen 2012

Gap between Science and Applications, Society

2. Science traditional reductionist approach: Create ‘islands of knowledge in a sea of ignorance’

(Meinke et al., 2007; 2009)

1. Decision-makers approach problems holistically and often intuitively

Conceptual Framework (1):

Need to Integrate Scientific Information into Decision Frameworks: How?

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Information and

DECISIONSUPPORTSYSTEMS

URUGUAY: DACC, SNIA = Climate Risk Management Approach and Tools

(Applied Systems Analysis Approach)

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SIMULATIONMODELS

REMOTESENSING

EXISTINGDATABASES

GIS

CLIMATEINFORMATION

Easily Understandable: Inform Decisions, Planning (Country, Region or Farm)

“Traffic light” colors

Tra

“Traffic light” colors

IRI is working with CCAFS and NARs:• Improving Adaptation to Current Climate Variability• Improving Crop Yield forecasts (Food Security)

Excellent example of Partnership CGIAR - ARI - NARI

W.E.Baethgen 2012

Uruguay’s National Agricultural Information System

Crop Production Outlooks (Food Security) with CCAFS (CGIAR)

Assess feasibility of Agricultural Technologies (e.g., irrigation)

Assess Sustainability of Production Systems (e.g., land use)

Assist DACC Project in Sustainability of Investments in Farms

Evaluate modalities of Agricutlural Insurance (e.g., Weather Index)

Establish Early Warning and Early Response Systems (e.g., Drought)

For Current Climate and for a Range of Plausible Climate Conditions in the Future (Adapt with Flexibility)

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Final Comments

Improving adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector of Uruguay:Fundamentally Focussed in Improving Adaptation to Today’s Climate and to a range of Plausible Future Climate Conditions (Adapt with Flexibility).

DACC Project: loan from The World Bank (Inter-American Bank)May affect how we start approaching Adaptation to Climate Changein the world (linked to Development, to Actions Today and Near Future, to Risk Management)

DACC Project is an excellent example of CGIAR (CCAFS) partnering with other International Institutes (IRI) and National Institutes (INIA, Min. Agr., University)to respond to demand of public and private stakeholders

W.E.Baethgen 2012

Thank you

Walter E. BaethgenDirector, Latin America and Caribbean Program (LAC)IRI, The Earth Institute at Columbia UniversityColumbia University, New York

email: baethgen@iri.columbia.eduInternet: http://iri.columbia.edu/