P A G A S A N D C C June2310
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Transcript of P A G A S A N D C C June2310
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PAGASA - DOST
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Rainfall Forecast for Wednesday, 23 June 2010
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Rainfall Forecast for Monday, 28 June 2010
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RECENT CLIMATE CONDITIONS
• El Niño dissipated during early May. • On-going transition towards La Niña• La Niña expected to fully developed by September 2010
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Global AdvisoriesGlobal Advisories
Season La Niña
Neutral
El Niño
JJA 2010 58% 41% 1%JAS
201061% 38% 1%
ASO 2010
62% 37% 1%
SON 2010
62% 37% 1%
OND 2010
62% 37% 1%
NDJ 2011
62% 37% 1%
DJF 2011
62% 37% 1%
JFM 2011
61% 38% 1%
FMA 2011
58% 41% 1%
TABLE - IRI Probabilistic ENSO Forecast for NINO3.4 Region- Made in June 2010
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June 1-22, 2010
Actual (mm) % NormalNormal (mm)(1971-2000)
Actual Rainfall
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Normal (mm) (1971-2000)
Forecast July 2010
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Normal (mm) (1971-2000)
Forecast August 2010
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Normal (mm) (1971-2000)
Forecast September 2010
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Normal (mm) (1971-2000)
FORECAST OCTOBER 2010
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Tropical Cyclone Forecast July-September (2010)
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Weather Systems that may affect the country from June-September 2010
• Southwest Monsoon• Monsoon trough• Intertropical Convergence Zone
(ITCZ)• Tropical cyclone• Ridge of High Pressure Area
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Presidential Proclamation No. 1535Typhoon and Flood Awareness Week
Every 3d week of June each year
21-27 June 2010• Kick-off launching ceremony
- MM Barangay officials, SMART, Jollibee, Phil. Science Journalists Association, Typhoon Committee Foundation, Inc - Series of IEC - Media Seminar on Meteorological hazards in Baler, Aurora
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• No TC development until end of June 2010
• Below normal rainfall for June 2010 in many areas in the country
• La Nina condition expected September 2010 until the 1st Quarter of 2011
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“tracking the sky . . . helping the country”