Ozone production and its sensitivity to emissions An overview of the work conducted at LISA Isabelle...
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Transcript of Ozone production and its sensitivity to emissions An overview of the work conducted at LISA Isabelle...
Ozone production and its Ozone production and its
sensitivity to emissionssensitivity to emissions
An overview of the work conducted at LISA
Isabelle Coll and Fanny Lasry
Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05
Analysis of the factors influencing OAnalysis of the factors influencing O33 production productionIsabelle Coll, Fanny Lasry (LISA)
o Constitution of an optimized model configuration through– The simulation of episodes with various chemical and dynamical inputs
– The generation of validation indices of model-measurement comparison
– A detailed analysis of the simulation results
o The observation of ozone formation on the ESCOMPTE domain trough– The identification of the location of destruction and production areas
– The simulation of specific dynamical periods : which effect on ozone formation ?
o Following ozone production along the VOC decomposition pathways (prospective : to be conducted)– Where and when do VOC species and families produce ozone?
– Which VOCs are most involved in fast ozone production rates? in ozone peaks?
– Which VOCs most participate in regional ozone export?
– Which link with ozone control policies?
Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05
At ground level on ESCOMPTE IOPs– Ozone production rates up to 45ppbv/h– Identification of photochemically active air masses and inert ozone plumes
Possible to identify geographical/quantitative trends in the ozone – ozone formation relationship ?
– Large variability of the PO3 plume shape, extent and intensity from one day to another => “statistical analysis” from one period to another => effect of dynamics or effect of emissions ?
07/08 12/08<
Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05
Identification of ozone chemical regimes– Greater consistency
– Problem of the intermediate zone
Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05
Following POFollowing PO33 along VOC degradation along VOC degradation
o Idea : to bring information on the participation of each VOC species/family to ozone production by marking primary and secondary species evolution
SPECIES + OH PRODUCTS … O3 ?
o Tracers of VOC degradation => information on – Number of VOC molecules degraded at each location
– Transport and degradation of secondary species
BENZENE
ALKANES
C3H8
Statistic analysis of their participation in high PO3The results expected from these studies should bring a better understanding of the development of regional ozone episodes in relation with precursor emissions.
Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05
Simulation of scenarios of emission reduction Simulation of scenarios of emission reduction Isabelle Coll, Fanny Lasry (LISA), S. Fayet (AIRMARAIX)
J.L. Ponche (LPCA), S. Cautenet, J. Arteta (LaMP), R. Vautard (LMD)
o The project PRIMEQUAL 2 – PREDIT Scenarios– influence of realistic strategies and arbitrary scenarios of reduction of the
emissions, over various durations, in order to constitute a tool for the evaluation of environmental policies
– questions are centered around the combination of actions to be conducted in order to respect current and future european ozone thresholds
How to avoid ozone pollution peaks ? Which realistic emission modifications can be proposed to reduce ozone background
pollution ?
Traffic modulationsEvolutions of the road networkEmergency actions
Modifications pf NMVOC emission specificationsRéduction of punctual NOx emissions
Consequence of the new European legislationLocal decisions to reduce air pollution
Sc 0 ARéférence
(2001 et 2003) hors MU
Scénario de référence (hors MU) . Projections 2001 et 2003 . Validation modèle + Référence
Sc 0 BRéférence 2003
avec MUScénario de référence (avec MU) - Projection 2003 en
tenant compte restrictions prises suite MU. Validation modèle + Référence
Sc 1 Tendanciel 2010Scénario tendanciel 2010 : Projection 2010 "au fil de
l'eau" (prolongement des évolutions en cours).Que se passerait-il en 2010 si aucune
mesure n'était prise ?
Sc 2 A "OPTINEC" 2010Scénario OPTINEC 2010 (CITEPA, MàJ Oct.2004) : il
s'agit du scénario national 2010 "réaliste" calculé par le CITEPA
Que se passerait-il en 2010 en considérant la
réglementation engagée (situation nationale probable)?
Sc 2 B NEC 2010Scénario NEC 2010 : Respect de la directive NEC. Il
s'agit du scénario national 2010 "réglementaire".Que se passerait-il en 2010 si la France respecte la
directive NEC?
Sc 3 Réaliste 2010 Scénario 2 A + particularités régionales
Que se passerait-il en 2010 en considérant la
réglementation engagée(situation nationale probable + situation
régionale probable)?
Sc 4 AMU
opérationnelles 2010
2010 / mesures d'urgence (MU) en vigueur été 2004Effet des MU en vigueur été 2004 > projection
2010?
Sc 5 AMU
complémentaires2010
2010 / mesures d'urgence (MU) complémentairesEffet de MU complémentaires > projection
2010?
Sc 4 BMU opérationnelles
2001-20032001-2003 / mesures d'urgence (MU) en vigueur été
2004Effet des MU en vigueur été 2004 sur les
épisodes de pollution 2001-2003?
Sc 5 BMU
complémentaires 2001-2003
2001-2003 / mesures d'urgence (MU) complémentaires Effet des MU complémentaires sur les épisodes de pollution 2001-2003?
Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05
o Scientific objectives– To establish a link between ozone and its chemical precusors
in order to identify and quantify the chemical factors most involved in the development of photochemical pollution
What are the responses of ozone to the emissions of its precursors (NOx, the globallity of the VOCs, each VOC individually)? How to quantify it?
Is there a variability of the ozone responses to emissions according to the type of meteorological situation? How to determine it?
Which category(ies) of emitter(s) do(es) mostly participate in ozone production?
– To establish a map of these relationships this will allow the geographical analysis of the efficiency of emission reduction
scenarios
– To quantify the impact of ozone control policies on several time scales What is the efficiency of the legislations for the year 2010? On ozone episodes /
long term efficiency ? Impacy on ozone peaks, 8h-mean ozone concentrations, background pollution
The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project CHIMERE contributionCHIMERE contribution
Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05
Realistic scenarios
Definition: Simulations with emissions projected for the year 2010
Objectives: Qualification of the efficiency of measures engaged for the year 2010
Results: evaluation of the impacts on ozone concentrations
Theoretical scenariosDefinition: Simulations with reductions of the emissions of ozone precursors (VOCs, NOx, combined reductions, and reductions on each VOC) Objectives: Analysis of the ozone-precursors relation on the siteEvaluation of the pertinence of the realistic scenarios
Results: Sensitivity to the main categories of emitter Ozone sensitivity to emissions of its precursors
Simulations conducted on ~30 days on the ESCOMPTE domain representative of various and contrasted pollution events - IOP2, 3, 4 and 1-16 august 2003
The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project CHIMERE strategyCHIMERE strategy
Precursors to play on ? Expected effects ?
NOxVOC_40
VOC_40
NOx_40
Necessary to combine efforts on NOx and VOCs
Significative impacts expected - 20 to - 40 µg/m3
Maxima of ozone
Difference with the reference
Location of the impacts of anthropogenic activities
GSP_40
TRAFIC_40
TOT_40
Difference with the reference
Effect of ozone threshold exceedances : Road traffic and industrial emission = - 40%
Ozone max
10/08/03
Ozone max
12/08/03
No more threshold exceedance
Increase of ozone :
Threshold exceedance
No effect on exceedance
Regulation seems to be efficient Necessary to test it over a long period First guess : persistence of measures over several days
Noxcov_40 Situation 2010
Ozone maximum
o Emission scenarios : projection to year 2010
Anyway => necessary to add supplementary measures
Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05
o Spatial analysis of VOC influence– Geographical scale of impact of emission reduction– Influence on the redistribution of urban and regional ozone maxima and means
o Study of the evolution of pollutants in the urban and industrial plumes
o Evaluation and proposal of efficient emission reduction policies
o Study of the influence of emission reductions on background pollution (long term study) – Statistical evaluation of the impact of new regulations on air quality
The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project Expected results Expected results