Overview - USITC

of 21 /21
1 2 Wooden Cabinets and Vanities from China Inv. No. 701-TA 620 and 731-TA-1445 (Final) February 20, 2020 On Behalf of The American Kitchen Cabinet Alliance - Dr. Seth T. Kaplan [email protected] (202) 403-9439 Overview Conditions of Competition Injury Threat 2/19/2020 1

Transcript of Overview - USITC

Page 1: Overview - USITC

1

2

Wooden Cabinets and Vanities from China Inv. No. 701-TA 620 and 731-TA-1445 (Final)

February 20, 2020

On Behalf of

The American Kitchen Cabinet Alliance

-Dr. Seth T. Kaplan

[email protected]

(202) 403-9439

Overview

Conditions of Competition

Injury

Threat

2/19/2020

1

Page 2: Overview - USITC

3

4

Overview

I Conditions of Competition I·

Injury

Threat

CondtifunsofCompcltifun

• Growth of subject imports

• Head-to-head competition

• Price-based competition

• Cyclical demand

• Subject imports moved up the value chain

2/19/2020

2

Page 3: Overview - USITC

2/19/2020

CofC

Growth

Value of Subject Imports • Subject Imports of Full Units

1.600.000

1.400.000

1,200.000

~ .§ 1.000,000 0 e 0 800.000

" ~ is 600.000 iS

400.000

200.000 I o--- ■■ I 11111111

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201I20122013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

5

CofC

Growth

Volume of Subject Imports • 25,000,000

20.000.000

§ 15,000,000

10,000.000

5,000,000

o--• ■■ 11 1111111 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 20062007 2008 20092010 201120122013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

6

3

Page 4: Overview - USITC

7

8

CofC

Growth

Import Value • 2018 Subject WCV Imports ($1,000)

2,500,000

2.000,000

1.500,000

1,000,000

500,000

2019

■ Import Value ■ AD and CVD Margill5

CofC

Head-to-Head

• Value level and share is understated

• Value fails to account for AD/CVD margins

• Import value is at a different level of trade

Channels of Distribution • JOO

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

JO

0

Share of U.S. Shipments

Subject Importers

■ Distributors

■ Retailers

■ Designers/Dealers

End Users

• Imports are significant in all channels

• U.S. producers ship similar shares to each channel

2/19/2020

4

Page 5: Overview - USITC

9

10

CofC

Head-to-Head

Menu

Su~ect lmpor~Compcle~ All Channels of Distribution

~ Ca l U (f l T

• Login I DEAUR SIGN UP I

"Our major clients are distributors, independent dealers, retailers, builders, contractors, designers, and home centers."

Homeowners:

Even though our major clients are distributors, independent dealers. retailers, builders, contractors, designers, and home centers, we encourage homeowners to vis1 our dealer in their area. lf you are unable to find a dealer neat you, you may want to locate a kitchen dealer you trust and ask that they apply for an account with JtG Cabinetry. I

CofC

Head-to-Head

-lMP9~ FEATURES FABUWOOD

Doors solid wood End panel : Pl wood? 3/4" Tops & bottoms: Plywood? 3/4" Drawer box: Soft close? ✓ Shelving: Plywood? 3/4" Orawerslide:Full extension soft close? ✓ Hinges: 6--way soft

✓ close?

Specifications • Head-to-Head Compettion Across Product Specifications _ __ _ _____ _

~--~~ O]l!ED __ ~- !!\?QB..._TED DOMESTIC DQ~~ ___ ·- l!~~'g:C JSI J&K acpi American Woodmark Aristokrafl

full o,•erlay. standard solid wood, full o\'crlav 3/4" solid, full overlay ovcrlav

1/2" l/2"to5/8" 1/2"

1/2" l/2"to 5/8" 112"

✓ ✓ ✓

3/4" 5/8" 5/8"

✓ ✓ ✓

✓ ✓ ✓

3/4" to 1-5/8".solid 3/4" to 1-1/2" solid wood wood

l/2"cngineered wood 3/8" furniture board

l/2"cngincered wood 1/2" furniture board

hardwood, dovetail 1/2" furniture OOard

3/4" engineered wood 3/4" furniture board

✓ ✓

✓ ✓

2/19/2020

5

Page 6: Overview - USITC

11

12

CofC

Head-to-Head

Styles

FabuwoodAllure Anaheim White Galaxy Frost Shaker

Subject Imported

C ofC

Head-to-Head

Master Brand Aristokraft Korbett

KountryWood Jamestown

Domestic

Premium Features • • Soft-close drawers and doors

• Dovetail drawer construction

• Plywood construction

• Finished interiors

2/19/2020

6

Page 7: Overview - USITC

13

14

CofC

Head-to-Head

CofC

Price

Table 11-7

Premium Features Premium Features Standard on Website?

Adomus Cabinetry, LLC ✓ Greencastle Cabinetry Inc Aline International LLC ✓ Harbor Distributors, Inc., dba HDI Cabinetrv Anaheim Kitchen & Bath Inc. ✓ Highland Cabinetrv, Inc. APRO Construction Grouo, LLC ✓ Innovation Cabinetrv LLC Asia Cabinetry Inc ✓ J&K

Bob Peters DBA Kitchen Cabinet Denot ✓ JSI

Brokerinf' SoJutions ✓ Kaixin Wood Products, Inc Builder Sunnlv Source ✓ Kitchen Cabinet Designers, LLC Cabinets Direct Plus LLC ✓ KZ Kitchen Cabinet & Stone Inc. Cabinets To Go, LLC ✓ Milzen Cabinetrv Inc CASA Cabinets, Inc ✓ National Kitchen & Bath Cabinetrv Inc. Choice Cabinet ✓ NGYGROUP

Clark and Son Auction & Liauidation ✓ Northrimber Cabinetrv Inc CNC Cabinetry ✓ PCTC Cabinetry Inc. Direct Kitchen and Bath Inc. ✓ PF Sales, LLC dba Makellos DL Snace Inc. ✓ Pius Kitchen and Bath EastFront Cabinet Comnanv ✓ Sandi Global Groun Eucucina Cabinet Distributor ✓ Skvline Cabinetnr Inc Fabuwood Cabinetrv Com. ✓ Sollid Cabinetrv LLC Foremost Grouns, Inc. ✓ Stone International of Denver, Inc. FX Cabinets Warehouse ✓ Sunco, Inc. Green F crest Wood Products LLC ✓ United Liiv Ann Cabinets, LLC

Price is the Most Important Purchasing Factor

I ✓

✓ I ✓ I

✓ I

✓ I

✓ !

WCVs: Rankinn of factors used In Durchaslng decisions as reoorted bv P.:Urchasers b" factor 1st I 2nd 3rd ·7 Total 7

Item I Number of firms I Price/ Cosl 18 7 9 34

~ I 71 15 I 4 26 I Lead time I Deliven., I 61 al 91 23 I Availabilitu / Sun.r I Table 11-13 Product featureslranne WCVs: Purchasers' comnarisons between U.S.-nroduced and lmnorted nroduct Value U.S.vs. China vs. Service U.S. vs. China Nonsublect Nonsubiect All other factors' Factor s C I s C I s C I

Availabilitv 9 24 7 5 12 2 4 12 Reliabilitv of sunnlv 9 26 4 3 14 1 4 12 Product consistencv 6 26 6 4 14 1 5 13 Qualitv of finish 7 25 8 3 11 4 4 13 Qua/itv meets industrv standards 7 32 1 4 13 1 3 15 1-'flCe h .,., 2 6 11 10 6 Lead time - assembled 12 14 12 . 10 6 2 4 8 Technical sunoort/service 17 20 1 7 10 1 3 14 Packaaina 8 28 4 4 13 2 3 14 Deliverv terms 7 26 7 4 11 3 4 11

-RTAflatnack 3 18 14 1 10 5 7 10 i nack 4 10 19 5 6 3 7 8

strv standards 9 28 2 2 14 2 3 15 3 18 17 3 10 5 6 11

Wood tvne or material 9 26 4 3 13 2 2 16 U.S. transnortation costs 6 26 6 5 10 3 4 12 Product ranoe 17 21 2 6 11 2 3 13 Pavmenl te,ms 5 29 4 4 14 1 4 14 Minimum oualit11 renuirements 10 24 5 6 10 1 5 9 Provision of other oroducts and services 10 21 3 14 1 3 14 Customization 20 16 3 8 10 1 3 14

2/19/2020

2 2

1

2 4

1 2

2

1

2 2

4

1

7

Page 8: Overview - USITC

15

c,:,c I I Commission Data Shows a Vast • Overlap of Domestic and

Subject Price Points

Low High Price

I CofC I •• ,· I Head-to-Head I Subject Imports Go to Market

on Price in Every Channel of Distribution

• Distributors

• Designers/Dealers

• Retailers

• End Users

16

2/19/2020

8

Page 9: Overview - USITC

17

CofC

Price

Distributors • YOU PROVIDE THE SPACE

WE'LL PROVIDE THE CABINETS Kitchen Cabinet Distributors partners with professionals to deliver beautiful.

fu ll-featured kitchen solutions at an affordable price.

OUR CABINETS ►

CofC

Price

Designers/Dealers • . fabuwood·

We believe that your kitchen cabinets ~hould help develop a

sanctuary that offers a perfect balance of functionality and

ambiance. With a range of styles, mate1ials and finishes

available, Fabuwood offers a multitude of options catering to

your specific taste and needs. We make building a luxury

kitchen affordable, without compromising on comfort,

quality and efficiency. There truly is no better blend of style,

selection, and price than a Fabuwood cabinet Our unique

collections transform modern and traditional homes, large

and small, inside and out adorning kitchen walls throughout

the nation.

"We make building a luxury kitchen affordable''

...... l'JJ:ffl1:tJ1i'f,, I I •

1-Vith a presence 011 a

national scale, it'.-i s,~fr to

say tlzat Fid1uwood is a

pmt'cr_Jitl and feuding

corporatfon in the cr1lJf11elry

lvorld.

18

- - - - - - - -

18

2/19/2020

9

Page 10: Overview - USITC

19

20

CofC . Price

Retailers • UlyAnnlsHer•lo,Y°"endYou,NtwRT,\ l(l1cht nCOlno11y

I

"Half the Price of Big Box Stores" 1

= ts o, h.:><e q""5\oo,,, ;i,:X,LI\ ~'OVI' Ion~™"' PfO)!cCt

wno s.mpl~ buy ar.cl ,~ ,..;: c.all,ni,\S ~l ~ m~r~u~. v,,c

, WOll'l ~~t snuflled ''°"' '""' compJn~ lo~,,_.;,..,.. • l~'J.""' st.moa,,1 cf •H'-"-~'e c1,11om~, ,c,v,ce

01ft11ePrlcooft!\o-St<>r• •

w~ are known to, llbV<r"M} !hf' t>tt;it,.,,t QUUh!y IHA k,tm,,n <-l, a'!\~• bo!-<1 """''" ,,.,.,,.,., you b1N 1:~:n::,',0:~::::~:~~: :~:::~;3~:1:::,1~~ ~:::,:~:::;,::\:t:,,,b:o:::7 ,7;::a ,,~mets yoo cMoow !or you, ~,!cl'lel1, tt,,, <O~ ;i,M ,1.,n1 ;i,re l!U<I,- rn las!

You c1on·t r>C!t'd to MY 31\ ~,m •M <I 11'1) 10 ,;.-: V>l' , ,:<1,.,n ub.,,Pt\ or )'C>J< O<e.,, .... )'O\J µ! r,<,P(l 10

~no,r .. ~ .... ,. tn l<><1~ Get "' l0<1Ch W,I~ us. todo;· !O t,,,ry yo;,; nc,w k•t<!Wn <M>o'>C!I> at ~ S1Nte<I t1V

0\'\•!,""'9 YOU< d<Nnl Mchl,>n w,tn CJ1.JC f,~,- 1,· ~,:,,...,,, (,",!"U': c ..... ,,-,,

About The Compor,y

r.ae,.., Wc o<J;>,cc'.,<t,;.,, . D!'.,,~•cs<·<<O""•~t, ,,o, -'' 't.l"'><; .,..,'.'1 O<•,c,oo c,~,s~:moc-c!oc,:,""11 <~"'""">' "'" oo,J ,s \<;

o.,,.,,:..o-:► ·-~,•',xc.>~,•"",--"-"""·" . .'?->

'<r~t..:~. ,e~,;,,--• .;,, a,-.::e.;< ""--·~•v<· ;,..,-•,,,cc,l,i.O

",;cots.=- c,,,-:,.,.,., ,c~ ~,• t_~.,,~ =<><, c..,.. u,,,:~" Srnc-t.

>« ~ ·""' ,,., . .,.,.,,.., ... "---" .. ., c-•~-~-- ,,...,~,· o. """· ,.., , ::. - .i.e.-,, .... ,:...,;"~·•· ~•- •. • ,e·, •• ..,t ""

e, "'"'"'.,°"' ""~""" ''""' "'-'":r .... -. r,,,:, <<> .. .o<.1,t,or,

•-:~,~~"• '>• .. &-.•"' ;J<.<:A,"' ,,' C., !,._::> ,.,,,,.,,.:,.T,~ .. ,o __ ,_.,✓.c'<>< ..... :,,, ~-""-"··"'•-•o.

"40% less than the big box stores"

M"W'1C••-..c1,-;,,te<1n~••'"••<ob,~o,o.-.Jt.1•i•"'••-"""a-..•1•""-<.-.""t••~010..--IO'\. ..... -"t""'"" •-m•••·"''-• 1ro;,,..,,,,_,.,,,01,c:,••••"""1"0,,01_r1_0.w..,w.-c, __ ,..,.,..._a•-.r-..·-·~""'"•"• 1>o•••--l••'""<•:>r,<1•c-.,,,_, ,,.. .. .,..:1,...i o1o;·-.. ~•"'"""'""""'"',.."·'•f"-•'-'• w~,-n,,ov-.-.­,- .. ,,..,.,..,.,.,,,., .... n-.•Y•""•- er_,..,,,,-,.•~•>-"o':•i . "r• . •"~•-,..-.1-"',•'•'-•c..; 1,,.,,,_...,, \-;C•-•:.-:.,.,-.;,;_.,,.,,.,,..-,.,,.,:-.-.,.-~...._,"°'"--.

Ready-to-Assemble and Pre-Assembled Kitchen Cabinets

CofC

Price

End Users • "high quality products at

economical and affordable prices"

"Our target clients are ... contractors, builders ... "

Our target clients are anyone who is related to the

cabinet/construction industry (contractors, builders, retailers,

designers, etc.) in the Wilmington, Charlotte, Winston-Salem,

Greensboro, Raleigh, and Asheville. NC areas. National Kitchen & Bath

Cabinetry Inc is open to the pubUc. However, we do not sell to

homeowners. If you are a homeowner, and are interested in what we

have to offer, you can bring your contractor or we will help you

contact the nearest retailer in your area that carries our products. --. ..... .,,...- ~ ~-____,!u..;;;_....:,_ __ _:__:,_:_

2/19/2020

10

Page 11: Overview - USITC

21

22

CofC

Cyclical

Demand is Cyclical • ··-

'

Residential Housing and Remodeling Index 160

140

120 s 0

'ii' 100 0 0 c j 80

60

40

20

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Dc\'clopmcnt, Housing Starts: Total: New Privatd\" 0\mcd Housing Units . . .. ... ...... - . ~ '.. . . , , 21

- - - - -- - - - -

CofC

Value Chain

Table 11-11

Subject Imports Moved Up the Value Chain

WCVs: Availabilitv of custom, semi-custom, and stock WCVs, bv source Cabinet/vanity

• tvpe United States China Nonsubiect

No Yes No Yes No Yes Custom 0 39 19 16 5 12 Semi-custom 0 40 11 26 4 14 Stock 5 35 0 38 4 16 Source: Compiled from data submitted m response to Comm1ss1on questionnaires.

2/19/2020

11

Page 12: Overview - USITC

2/19/2020

Overview • Conditions of Competition

!Injury [

Threat

23

/ Injury I I Trends I

Trends Analysis • Volume

Price

Effects

24

12

Page 13: Overview - USITC

25

26

Injury

Volume

Subject Import Volume Market Share

2016 2017 2018 2018 2019 Jan- Jan-Sep. Sep.

Injury

Trends

Volume Subject Import Value Market

Share

I 2016 2017 2018 2018 2019

Jan- Jan­Sep. Sep.

Price

• Imports undersell and suppress prices

• Underselling in 115/120 instances

• Subject Import Share of

Production

2016 2017 2018 2018 2019 Jan- Jan­Sep. Sep.

. • • Kitchen-to-kitchen comparisons confirm underselling

• Imports are "superior" on price

• AUV s show underselling

• There is a cost-price squeeze

26

- - - - - - - -- - - -

2/19/2020

13

Page 14: Overview - USITC

27

28

Injury

Impact

Production and Capacity ■ Utilization Decreased in a Rising Market

2016

Injury

Impact

2016

2017 2018 2018 Jan-Sep. 2019 Jan-Sep.

-us Production - Capacity Utilization

Shipments Decreased in a Rising Market • U.S. Producers' U.S. Shipments (Units)

2017 2018 2018 Jan-Sep. 2019 Jan-Sep.

28

- - - - - - - -·

2/19/2020

14

Page 15: Overview - USITC

29

30

Injury

Impact Operating Income and Operating Margin Declined

in a Rising Market Operating Income Operating Margin

II

' •

2016 2017 2018 2018 Jan- 2019 Jan- 2016 2017 2018 2018 Jan- 2019 Jau-

Injury

Impact

2016 2017

Sep. Sep.

Net Income and Net Margin Declined in a Rising Market

Net Income Net Margin

I I I 2018 2018 Jan. 2019 Jau- 2016 2017 2018

Sep. Sep.

Sep. Sep.

' •

I 2018 Jan- 2019 Jan-

Sep. Sep.

JO

- -- -- - -- -

2/19/2020

15

Page 16: Overview - USITC

I Injury I I Impact I Employment was Flat

in a Rising Market

PRWs

• ' .

2016 2017 2018 2018 Jan-Sep. 2019 Jan-Sep.

31

I Injury I

32

I Impact I Changes in Operation

and Effects on Investment

• Production curtailments and facility closures

• Low returns on investment in new and existing facilities

• Postponement and cancellation of planned investments

' •--

2/19/2020

16

Page 17: Overview - USITC

33

34

Injury

Cycle Financial Markets Reflect Injury to Domestic Producers

• Publicly traded firms identify imports as a risk factor in SEC filings

• Wall Street analysts ...

• stated that Chinese imports harmed the industry

• downgraded industry stocks due to imports

• upgraded stocks due to the affirmative preliminary determination

• ' .

• praised Masco's sale of its cabinets division due to future

import risk

Injury

Cycle

12%

10%

-~ 8%

::E "" .s ~ 6%

"-0

4%

2%

0%

The Industry is Injured in the Context of the Business Cycle

Operating Margin of Public Cabinet Companies and Housing and Remodeling Index

2016 2017 2018

- New Residential Construction and Remodeling Index -Operating !vlargin

• ' .

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

IO

So MASCO Am . Woodm k dF b d 10..KFT FREDH Start dB ·1a· Ml . I . . -- -34

- - ---- - --

2/19/2020

17

Page 18: Overview - USITC

35

Injury

Interim

"Natural Experiment" • • Pre-AD/CVD duty importAUVs actually fell in the

interim period from $63 to $60

• Import volumes did not decline until August 2020 at the end of the interim period

• Massive subject interim inventory overhang at pre­AD/CVD duty import prices

Injury

Interim

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

2019 Imports • 2019 Subject WCV Imports

Source: USITC Dataweb

36

2/19/2020

18

Page 19: Overview - USITC

37

Threat

38

Overview

Conditions of Competition

Injury

[ Threat [

Subject Imports Threaten Further Material Injury

to the U.S. Industry

Threat Factors

Countervailing Subsidies ✓

Unused Production Capacity ✓

Import Volumes and Market ✓ Penetration

Price Suppression and Depression ✓

Inventories ✓

Negative effects on domestic ✓ industry

Other adverse trends ✓

2/19/2020

19

Page 20: Overview - USITC

39

40

Threat

Subject Imports Threaten Further ■ Material Injury to the U.S. Industry

Subject Imports l.600.000

l.400.000

l.200.000

l'c

=§ 1.000.000

e 0 ~ 800.000 -c ~ § 600.000 p

400.000

200.000 --- -••···••11111 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources: USITC Dataweb

Supplementary Slides ■

2/19/2020

20

Page 21: Overview - USITC

41

But For Unfairly Traded Subject Imports the Domestic Industry

Would be Materially Better off

• Subject imports have a large market share

• Commerce found high dumping and subsidy margms

• Demand for WCVs is inelastic

• There is a high substitution elasticity between domestically produced and subject imported WCV s

• The market is competitive based on price

2/19/2020

21